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Monday 3-12-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Central Michigan was 9-2 in pre-conference games (schedule #340); Chippewas won three of last four games overall- they’re 4-10 vs teams ranked in top 200. Fort Wayne lost four of its last six games; they’re 7-6 in non-MAC games, and are also 4-10 vs teams in top 200. Last three years, MAC teams are 9-9 vs Summit League teams. CMU last played Thursday; Mastodons last played eight days ago.
Drake is #7 experience team in country that starts four seniors; they lost last three games, by 8-5-2 points. Bulldogs are 6-7 in non-conference games this year; they’re 4-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200. Drake hasn’t played in 10 days. Abilene Christian hasn’t played in nine days; they lost four of last five games, are 4-5 in non-league games. Wildcats are 0-8 this season vs teams ranked in top 200. ACU is #79 experience team- they turn ball over 20.3% of time.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN @ IPFW
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Central Michigan's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Central Michigan's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of IPFW's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of IPFW's last 5 games
ABILENE CHRISTIAN @ DRAKE
Drake is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home
Drake is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home
HARTFORD @ SAN DIEGO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games
Sportsbooks release opening pointspreads for first round of NCAA Tournament
The NCAA Tournament committee released the teams and matchups for the 2018 edition of March Madness on Sunday night. The show itself was greatly criticized for the format change and, as always, there was outrage over some of the selections. Through it all, sportsbooks were quick to react with opening pointspreads for all available opening round matchups.
Opening lines listed are from the Golden Nugget in downtown Las Vegas:
Las Vegas oddsmaker provides some insight behind March Madness opening lines
Patrick Everson
The bracket is out, the games are on the betting board, so it’s time to take a closer look at the matchups. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a few interesting NCAA Tournament games, with insights from Matthew Holt, CEO of CG Analytics in Las Vegas.
No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 7 Rhode Island Rams (-1)
Many people felt Oklahoma had no business getting an at-large NCAA bid after losing eight of its last 10 games SU and ATS. The Sooners (18-13 SU, 10-20 ATS), one of the worst spread-covering teams in the nation, bowed out on the first day of the Big 12 Tournament, losing to Oklahoma State 71-60 as a 1-point favorite. But Lon Kruger’s squad apparently did enough early in the season to get in.
Rhode Island, meanwhile, was much steadier all year long, winning the Atlantic 10 regular-season title. The Rams (25-7 SU, 16-13-1 ATS) then advanced to the A10 Tourney final before falling to Davidson on Sunday, 58-57 as a 2.5-point favorite.
“Everyone’s talking about Oklahoma not deserving to get in. They’re a 1-point underdog to Rhode Island,” Holt said, explaining the reasoning for the Sooners being such a short pup. “There is gonna be some public support for Oklahoma, especially because of Trae Young. Arizona’s Deandre Ayton is the best player in college basketball. Young is the most famous player in college basketball.
“Also, the power ratings between these two teams are really close.”
On Sunday night, CG moved the line up a tick to Rhode Island -1.5 for this Thursday Midwest Region game.
No. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers vs. No. 6 Miami Hurricanes (-2)
Miami, of the mighty ACC, is certainly the more known quantity in this Thursday South Region contest. The Hurricanes (22-9 SU, 11-15 ATS) had a nice four-game run to cap the regular season, but fell to North Carolina in their ACC Tournament opener, 82-65 catching 6 points.
Loyola-Chicago is the pride of the Missouri Valley Conference, winning both the regular-season and tournament titles. The Ramblers (28-5 SU, 19-9-1 ATS) have won 10 in a row and 17 of their last 18, going an impressive 14-4 ATS in that stretch. In the March 4 MVC final, Loyola dispatched Illinois State 65-49 laying 8.5 points.
“That line is gonna be fairly close. It’s a 6 vs. 11 matchup, but just a 2-point spread,” Holt said. “Loyola-Chicago being one of the sleeper teams people like, so that’s already built into the spread. The power rating shows Miami should be -4.5.”
No. 12 Davidson Wildcats vs. No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats (-6)
Kentucky was certainly erratic for a fair amount of the season, but played some great ball down the stretch, capped by winning the SEC Tournament on Sunday. The Wildcats (24-10 SU, 17-17 ATS) went 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games, beating Tennessee in the SEC final 77-72 as a 2-point underdog.
Davidson was 10-9 through its first 19 games, then went 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in its last 13, including a three-game run to the Atlantic 10 Tournament title. In Sunday’s final, Davidson (21-11 SU, 18-12-1 ATS) topped aforementioned Rhode Island 58-57 as a 2.5-point pup.
“Both these teams are red-hot, both teams playing their best basketball right now,” Holt said, noting the 6-point opening line – just a couple of 3-pointers -- shows respect for Davidson in this Thursday South Region meeting. “It’s a good game.”
No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 6 Houston Cougars (-3.5)
Houston flew a little under the radar in the American Athletic Conference, but could certainly be a team to watch over the first weekend of the NCAA Tourney in the West Region. The Cougars (26-7 SU, 18-10-1 ATS) went 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS over their last dozen games, narrowly falling to Cincinnati in Sunday’s AAC final, 56-55 as a 4.5-point ‘dog.
San Diego State had no shot at an at-large bid unless it won the Mountain West Conference Tournament – which it did. The Aztecs (22-10 SU, 20-10 ATS) pulled off three wins in three days, including a semifinal blowout of top-seeded Nevada, followed by an 82-75 victory over New Mexico as a 4-point chalk in Saturday’s title game.
“Houston-San Diego State is interesting because people have this love affair with the Aztecs,” Holt said of this Thursday West Region pairing. “In their power ratings, nobody is gonna have Houston as only 2 or 3 points better than San Diego State. The lowest I had this line in my power ratings was 4.25. But we’re gonna open at 3.5. The Aztecs are getting that positive momentum, playing well at the end of the year. They steamrolled through the Mountain West Tournament.”
Dunkel Rating:
Central Michigan
52.842
IPFW
55.491
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
IPFW
by 2 1/2
167
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
IPFW
by 5
159 Dunkel Pick:
Central Michigan
(+5); Over
Abilene Christian @ Drake
Game 511-512
March 12, 2018 @ 2:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Abilene Christian
47.823
Drake
54.759
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Drake
by 7
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Drake
by 10
143 Dunkel Pick:
Abilene Christian
(+10); Over
NC A&T @ Liberty
Game 513-514
March 12, 2018 @ 6:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
NC A&T
41.376
Liberty
56.747
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Liberty
by 15 1/2
135
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Liberty
by 11 1/2
140 Dunkel Pick:
Liberty
(-11 1/2); Under
Hartford @ San Diego
Game 515-516
March 12, 2018 @ 10:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Hartford
46.735
San Diego
58.624
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 12
133
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 9 1/2
138 Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(-9 1/2); Under
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