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Follow the biggest line moves and sharpest plays for the opening Thursday of March Madness betting
Patrick Everson
“This game’s got the most money in the pot so far for first-day games. Sharps are on Davidson, but it’s pretty much two-way action now.” - Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill U.S.
For those about to bet – and those who already have – we salute you. The NCAA Tournament is rolling out its 16-game Thursday slate, with ostensibly 12 uninterrupted hours of hoops.
Patrick Everson checks in on the matchups drawing the most interest, with insights from Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US; Tony Nevill, sportsbook director at Treasure Island; Jeff Stoneback, director of trading for MGM Resorts sportsbooks; D.J. Fields, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu; and Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore site BetDSI.eu.
No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 7 Rhode Island Rams – Open: Pick; Move: -1; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: -2
Right out of the gate, Oklahoma will get a chance to prove it deserved an NCAA Tourney bid, since this 12:20 p.m. ET Midwest Region tip is the first of the day. The Sooners (18-13 SU, 10-20 ATS) are one of the worst spread-covering outfits in the nation and imploded the last two months of the season, yet somehow made it into the field of 64.
Lon Kruger’s squad went 2-8 SU and ATS in its last 10 games and is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games. The Sooners lost in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament, 71-60 as a 1-point favorite against Oklahoma State on March 7.
By comparison, Rhode Island looks awesome, though it did lose twice in nine days to fellow NCAA Tourney team Davidson. The Rams (25-7 SU, 16-13-1 ATS) fell at Davidson in the regular-season finale, then were dealt a 58-57 setback as a 2.5-point favorite in the Atlantic 10 championship game Sunday.
“Smart money has been pouring in on Rhode Island from the moment we opened this game,” Fields said of activity at Bookmaker.eu. “Oklahoma's lackluster play late in the year seems to have left our bettors questioning if Lon Kruger's team has the depth needed to escape the first round. One-way action has driven Rhode Island to 2-point favorites.”
William Hill opened the Rams -1.5 and moved to -2.
“This game’s got pretty good two-way action,” Bogdanovich said of betting at William Hill’s 100-plus shops cross Nevada. “Pretty good handle too.”
No. 14 Wright State Raiders vs. No. 3 Tennessee Volunteers – Open: -12.5; Move: -11.5; Move: -12
Tennessee lost its last game, but prior to that was on a six-game run in a very strong Southeastern Conference. The Vols (25-8 SU, 18-13 ATS) came up short to Kentucky 77-72 as a 2-point chalk in Sunday’s SEC Tourney final.
Wright State made a three-game run through the Horizon League Tourney to grab an automatic NCAA bid. The Raiders (25-9 SU, 18-13-1 ATS) dumped Cleveland State 74-57 laying 9.5 points in the March 6 final.
“They’re playing Tennessee,” Nevill said of bettors at Treasure Island. “I think everybody believes Tennessee is the best team out of the SEC, even though the Vols lost to Kentucky in that final.”
Bookmaker.eu opened earlier and significantly higher for this 12:40 p.m. ET South Region contest, leading to quite the opposite of what Nevill saw at Treasure Island.
“Wiseguys seem to think we were too aggressive in opening up Tennessee as a 14-point favorite, as the early action was all on Wright State,” Fields said of wagering that dropped the line to 12. “Wright State cruised through the Horizon League Tournament, but faces a Tennessee team with regular-season wins over both Purdue and Kentucky. The public is backing the favorite Volunteers, while the smart money is taking the points with the Raiders.”
No. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers vs. No. 6 Miami Hurricanes – Open: -3; Move: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: -2: Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5
Loyola-Chicago, champion of the Missouri Valley Conference, has been talked up quite a bit this week. The Ramblers (28-5 SU, 19-9-1 ATS) have won 10 in a row and 17 of their last 18, going 14-4 ATS in that stretch. In the March 4 MVC Tourney final, Loyola rolled over Illinois State 65-49 giving 8.5 points.
Miami snapped a three-game skid with a four-game run to end the regular season. However, the Hurricanes couldn’t keep it going in a tough ACC Tourney quarterfinal, tumbling to North Carolina 82-65 catching 6 points last Thursday.
“You've heard the rumblings, and they're only getting louder as the bets come in,” Cooley said of Ramblers action at BetDSI.eu for a 3:10 p.m. ET South Region meeting. “Loyola is a team many believe can make a serious run in this tournament, and the action has supported that. Despite being matched up against a household program like the Hurricanes, even the public is backing the Ramblers. Currently, we have 78 percent of the handle on the underdog.”
No. 14 Montana Grizzlies vs. No. 3 Michigan Wolverines – Open: -12; Move: -11.5; Move: -11; Move: -10.5; Move: -11
Michigan is on fire and well-rested heading into one of the final games of the day, a 9:50 p.m. ET start in the West Region. The Wolverines (28-7 SU, 22-11-1 ATS) are on a nine-game tear (8-1 ATS), including a four-games-in-four-days Big Ten Tournament run that culminated with a 75-66 win over Purdue as a 4-point pup on March 4.
Montana has won six in a row but is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine outings. The Grizzlies (26-7 SU, 19-11-1 ATS) rolled to the Big Sky title with an 82-65 victory over Eastern Washington laying 4.5 points Saturday.
“They’re betting Michigan, even though it opened 12 and went down to 10.5,” Stoneback said from MGM’s home base at The Mirage, while noting Wednesday Wolverines action took the line back up to 11. “It looks like the public is all over Michigan. Ticket count is 4/1 on Michigan and the money is 2/1 on Michigan, and there are a lot of parlays on the Wolverines, too.”
Right next door at Treasure Island, the line opened Michigan -12 and dipped to 11, but the underdog is carrying the torch.
“They’re ready to anoint Cinderella. They’re taking the points. I’ve got a feeling we’ve got some folks from Montana in the house,” Nevill said. “All we’ve heard all week long is how Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue had all this time off, and how it might be bad for them. I don’t know if betting against those teams is such a wise thing.
“When everybody is on one side, from the talking heads through the crowd here, you start thinking, ‘Oh no, herd mentality, herd mentality.’”
No. 12 Davidson Wildcats vs. No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats – Open: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -5
Kentucky was the No. 4 seed in the SEC Tournament, but rolled to the title as part of a 7-1 SU and ATS run. The blue-and-white-clad Wildcats (24-10 SU, 17-17 ATS) topped Tennessee 77-72 as a 2-point ‘dog in Sunday’s conference final.
Davidson took the Atlantic 10’s automatic bid by beating regular-season champ Rhode Island in Sunday’s conference final. The red-and-white-clad Wildcats (21-11 SU, 18-12-1 ATS) edged the Rams 58-57 as a 2.5-point pup.
“This game’s got the most money in the pot so far for first-day games,” Bogdanovich said of a 7:10 p.m. ET clash in the South Region. “Sharps are on Davidson, but it’s pretty much two-way action now.”
MGM books also opened Kentucky -6 and dipped to 5, then bounced between 5.5 and 5 Wednesday night.
“The public is laying the points with Kentucky,” Stoneback said. “Sharp money coming in on the ‘dog drove it down, but the public is coming back on Kentucky. It’s a Pros vs. Joes game here.”
BetDSI.eu opened Kentucky -7, with Davidson cash forcing the line down to 5.5.
“This was one of the more difficult lines to set, and honestly, we were a point too high on the outset,” Cooley said. “Again, the underdog is seeing the majority of sharp money, while the casual bettors think anything less than double digits with Kentucky is a gift. Personally, I think the Wildcats from North Carolina are getting a tad too much respect in this one.”
Let’s wrap it up with some quick hitters on a few other Thursday games of note:
• No. 11 San Diego State vs. No. 6 Houston: “This Cougars club is one the wiseguys are high on,” Cooley said, noting Houston opened -3 and moved to -4 at BetDSI. “We've taken a few more bets on the Aztecs and the money is almost dead even, but we're bumping this spread because of the steady sharp action on Houston. This number could climb another point or so with the way action is trending.” This West Region contest tips at 7:20 p.m. ET.
• No. 12 South Dakota State vs. No. 5 Ohio State: William Hill US opened Ohio State -8, and the number ticked down to 7.5 Wednesday for this 4 p.m. ET West Region matchup. “Sharps took the 8 with the ‘dog,” Bogdanovich said.
• No. 16 Pennsylvania vs. No. 1 Kansas: Said Bookmaker.eu’s Fields: “Kansas opened as a 16-point favorite, but questions about the availability of Jayhawks center Udoka Azubuike (sprained MCL) dropped the line down to 13.5. It wasn't until we moved the line 2.5 points that we finally started to see some buyback from the public on Kansas.” That pushed the line back up to 14 Wednesday night for today’s 2 p.m. ET start in the Midwest Region.
• No. 9 North Carolina State vs. No. 8 Seton Hall: “They’re all betting Seton Hall, and it seems like everybody who’s playing the side is playing Seton Hall moneyline too,” Nevill said of this Midwest Region matchup. The Pirates opened -1.5 and late Wednesday night moved to -2.5 at Treasure Island for the 4:30 p.m. ET start.
Patrick Everson
“This game’s got the most money in the pot so far for first-day games. Sharps are on Davidson, but it’s pretty much two-way action now.” - Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill U.S.
For those about to bet – and those who already have – we salute you. The NCAA Tournament is rolling out its 16-game Thursday slate, with ostensibly 12 uninterrupted hours of hoops.
Patrick Everson checks in on the matchups drawing the most interest, with insights from Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US; Tony Nevill, sportsbook director at Treasure Island; Jeff Stoneback, director of trading for MGM Resorts sportsbooks; D.J. Fields, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu; and Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore site BetDSI.eu.
No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 7 Rhode Island Rams – Open: Pick; Move: -1; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: -2
Right out of the gate, Oklahoma will get a chance to prove it deserved an NCAA Tourney bid, since this 12:20 p.m. ET Midwest Region tip is the first of the day. The Sooners (18-13 SU, 10-20 ATS) are one of the worst spread-covering outfits in the nation and imploded the last two months of the season, yet somehow made it into the field of 64.
Lon Kruger’s squad went 2-8 SU and ATS in its last 10 games and is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games. The Sooners lost in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament, 71-60 as a 1-point favorite against Oklahoma State on March 7.
By comparison, Rhode Island looks awesome, though it did lose twice in nine days to fellow NCAA Tourney team Davidson. The Rams (25-7 SU, 16-13-1 ATS) fell at Davidson in the regular-season finale, then were dealt a 58-57 setback as a 2.5-point favorite in the Atlantic 10 championship game Sunday.
“Smart money has been pouring in on Rhode Island from the moment we opened this game,” Fields said of activity at Bookmaker.eu. “Oklahoma's lackluster play late in the year seems to have left our bettors questioning if Lon Kruger's team has the depth needed to escape the first round. One-way action has driven Rhode Island to 2-point favorites.”
William Hill opened the Rams -1.5 and moved to -2.
“This game’s got pretty good two-way action,” Bogdanovich said of betting at William Hill’s 100-plus shops cross Nevada. “Pretty good handle too.”
No. 14 Wright State Raiders vs. No. 3 Tennessee Volunteers – Open: -12.5; Move: -11.5; Move: -12
Tennessee lost its last game, but prior to that was on a six-game run in a very strong Southeastern Conference. The Vols (25-8 SU, 18-13 ATS) came up short to Kentucky 77-72 as a 2-point chalk in Sunday’s SEC Tourney final.
Wright State made a three-game run through the Horizon League Tourney to grab an automatic NCAA bid. The Raiders (25-9 SU, 18-13-1 ATS) dumped Cleveland State 74-57 laying 9.5 points in the March 6 final.
“They’re playing Tennessee,” Nevill said of bettors at Treasure Island. “I think everybody believes Tennessee is the best team out of the SEC, even though the Vols lost to Kentucky in that final.”
Bookmaker.eu opened earlier and significantly higher for this 12:40 p.m. ET South Region contest, leading to quite the opposite of what Nevill saw at Treasure Island.
“Wiseguys seem to think we were too aggressive in opening up Tennessee as a 14-point favorite, as the early action was all on Wright State,” Fields said of wagering that dropped the line to 12. “Wright State cruised through the Horizon League Tournament, but faces a Tennessee team with regular-season wins over both Purdue and Kentucky. The public is backing the favorite Volunteers, while the smart money is taking the points with the Raiders.”
No. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers vs. No. 6 Miami Hurricanes – Open: -3; Move: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: -2: Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5
Loyola-Chicago, champion of the Missouri Valley Conference, has been talked up quite a bit this week. The Ramblers (28-5 SU, 19-9-1 ATS) have won 10 in a row and 17 of their last 18, going 14-4 ATS in that stretch. In the March 4 MVC Tourney final, Loyola rolled over Illinois State 65-49 giving 8.5 points.
Miami snapped a three-game skid with a four-game run to end the regular season. However, the Hurricanes couldn’t keep it going in a tough ACC Tourney quarterfinal, tumbling to North Carolina 82-65 catching 6 points last Thursday.
“You've heard the rumblings, and they're only getting louder as the bets come in,” Cooley said of Ramblers action at BetDSI.eu for a 3:10 p.m. ET South Region meeting. “Loyola is a team many believe can make a serious run in this tournament, and the action has supported that. Despite being matched up against a household program like the Hurricanes, even the public is backing the Ramblers. Currently, we have 78 percent of the handle on the underdog.”
No. 14 Montana Grizzlies vs. No. 3 Michigan Wolverines – Open: -12; Move: -11.5; Move: -11; Move: -10.5; Move: -11
Michigan is on fire and well-rested heading into one of the final games of the day, a 9:50 p.m. ET start in the West Region. The Wolverines (28-7 SU, 22-11-1 ATS) are on a nine-game tear (8-1 ATS), including a four-games-in-four-days Big Ten Tournament run that culminated with a 75-66 win over Purdue as a 4-point pup on March 4.
Montana has won six in a row but is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine outings. The Grizzlies (26-7 SU, 19-11-1 ATS) rolled to the Big Sky title with an 82-65 victory over Eastern Washington laying 4.5 points Saturday.
“They’re betting Michigan, even though it opened 12 and went down to 10.5,” Stoneback said from MGM’s home base at The Mirage, while noting Wednesday Wolverines action took the line back up to 11. “It looks like the public is all over Michigan. Ticket count is 4/1 on Michigan and the money is 2/1 on Michigan, and there are a lot of parlays on the Wolverines, too.”
Right next door at Treasure Island, the line opened Michigan -12 and dipped to 11, but the underdog is carrying the torch.
“They’re ready to anoint Cinderella. They’re taking the points. I’ve got a feeling we’ve got some folks from Montana in the house,” Nevill said. “All we’ve heard all week long is how Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue had all this time off, and how it might be bad for them. I don’t know if betting against those teams is such a wise thing.
“When everybody is on one side, from the talking heads through the crowd here, you start thinking, ‘Oh no, herd mentality, herd mentality.’”
No. 12 Davidson Wildcats vs. No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats – Open: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -5
Kentucky was the No. 4 seed in the SEC Tournament, but rolled to the title as part of a 7-1 SU and ATS run. The blue-and-white-clad Wildcats (24-10 SU, 17-17 ATS) topped Tennessee 77-72 as a 2-point ‘dog in Sunday’s conference final.
Davidson took the Atlantic 10’s automatic bid by beating regular-season champ Rhode Island in Sunday’s conference final. The red-and-white-clad Wildcats (21-11 SU, 18-12-1 ATS) edged the Rams 58-57 as a 2.5-point pup.
“This game’s got the most money in the pot so far for first-day games,” Bogdanovich said of a 7:10 p.m. ET clash in the South Region. “Sharps are on Davidson, but it’s pretty much two-way action now.”
MGM books also opened Kentucky -6 and dipped to 5, then bounced between 5.5 and 5 Wednesday night.
“The public is laying the points with Kentucky,” Stoneback said. “Sharp money coming in on the ‘dog drove it down, but the public is coming back on Kentucky. It’s a Pros vs. Joes game here.”
BetDSI.eu opened Kentucky -7, with Davidson cash forcing the line down to 5.5.
“This was one of the more difficult lines to set, and honestly, we were a point too high on the outset,” Cooley said. “Again, the underdog is seeing the majority of sharp money, while the casual bettors think anything less than double digits with Kentucky is a gift. Personally, I think the Wildcats from North Carolina are getting a tad too much respect in this one.”
Let’s wrap it up with some quick hitters on a few other Thursday games of note:
• No. 11 San Diego State vs. No. 6 Houston: “This Cougars club is one the wiseguys are high on,” Cooley said, noting Houston opened -3 and moved to -4 at BetDSI. “We've taken a few more bets on the Aztecs and the money is almost dead even, but we're bumping this spread because of the steady sharp action on Houston. This number could climb another point or so with the way action is trending.” This West Region contest tips at 7:20 p.m. ET.
• No. 12 South Dakota State vs. No. 5 Ohio State: William Hill US opened Ohio State -8, and the number ticked down to 7.5 Wednesday for this 4 p.m. ET West Region matchup. “Sharps took the 8 with the ‘dog,” Bogdanovich said.
• No. 16 Pennsylvania vs. No. 1 Kansas: Said Bookmaker.eu’s Fields: “Kansas opened as a 16-point favorite, but questions about the availability of Jayhawks center Udoka Azubuike (sprained MCL) dropped the line down to 13.5. It wasn't until we moved the line 2.5 points that we finally started to see some buyback from the public on Kansas.” That pushed the line back up to 14 Wednesday night for today’s 2 p.m. ET start in the Midwest Region.
• No. 9 North Carolina State vs. No. 8 Seton Hall: “They’re all betting Seton Hall, and it seems like everybody who’s playing the side is playing Seton Hall moneyline too,” Nevill said of this Midwest Region matchup. The Pirates opened -1.5 and late Wednesday night moved to -2.5 at Treasure Island for the 4:30 p.m. ET start.
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