If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
I believe we are looking at some nice value in this contest. Not only would Kentucky have been a 15 point favorite in mid-November, they would have also been a 10 point favorite at the start of conference play. The Davidson surge in conference play that saw them finish the year 12-2 SU, 11-3 ATS, including upsetting Rhode Island to win the CCT and get this bid, is fully reflected in this line. However, the late season burst, following Kentucky’s 4 game losing streak in early February IS NOT. Following that downer, Kentucky finished the year on a 7-1 SU, ATS surge, including victories over Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee for the title. Plenty of respect for long time Davidson HC McKillop. His offensive sets are run with aplomb by his intelligent well drilled players. The truth however is, they have only 2 quality players in Aldridge and Grady. Aldridge does not have the athleticism of any Kentucky player and Grady is a spindly frosh. In short, they do not compare to the superior athletes of Kentucky who have at last heard the bell go off. With this number being over adjusted for the recent long term 15-4 ATS run by the underdog, it is time to step in with the value on super surging Kentucky.
(13) Buffalo vs (4) Arizona (-8-) 9:40PM EST CBS
This is the lowest number of any 4 vs 13 match-up, which almost always features a double digit favorite. Each of these teams were good to us on Saturday as we picked up a 6% winner with Buffalo (Toledo without their best player) followed by a 5% winner with Arizona in their 2nd half surge against USC. That brings each of these red hot teams to this first round meeting. I long ago picked up the excellence of this Buffalo team, ably coached by Nate Oates, the former assistant of Bobby Hurley who turned around this Buffalo program. This year, returning star Massinburg has been ably aided by big man Perkins, Missouri transfer Clark, and Lewis. They prefer the 94 foot game with the 15th fastest pace in the country. That has resulted in a recent run of 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS. That pace however, is not a recipe for success when facing a bigger, stronger, faster team. That was proven in the non-con season when the Bulls went 0-5 SU, with losses to tourney teams Cincinnati, S. Dak State, St Bonnie, Syracuse, and Texas A&M. Now they must go up against a team who is playing their best ball of the season. Arizona enters on an 8-1 SU surge. They are playing with a passion now that they have banded together as a result of allegations against them. When you get a favored team with an “us against the world underdog mentality”, you have the makings of success. A notable key has been the greatly improved team defense which has allowed none of their last 5 opponents to score more than 67 points. Do that today against Buffalo and we have an easy winner. The interior duo of Ayton and Ristic, dominates Perkins on the interior on both sides of the floor, while the Arizona perimeter of Trier, Alkins and Jackson-Cartwright shut down the thrusts of Clark to the lane. With Arizona on a mission a comfortable double digit victory is no surprise to this bureau.
4 Unit Play. Take #709 Under 212 Chicago at Memphis (8:05p.m., Thursday March 15)
If this game was in Chicago then I would probably either pass on this game or maybe look at the over but since this game is being played at the FedExForum I believe the UNDER is the 'Best Bet'. Chicago has been trending UNDER games going 2-4 O/U in their last 6 games and we all know the Grizzlies struggle to score points no matter were they play. Memphis games have gone UNDER 6 out 8 and if they struggle tonight I see this total easily cashing the UNDER. Memphis is 1-8-1 O/U against Central division teams and the Grizzlies are 1-4 O/U in their last 5 home games.
2-Unit Play. Take #705 Philadelphia (-9.5) over New York (7:30 p.m., Thursday, March 15)
The Knicks are terrible and the 76ers are battling for playoff positioning. Look for Philly to run New York out of the gym. Everyone loves to play in MSG, so there is no taking it easy or worrying about Philly letting down. The bright lights of the big city bring out the best in everyone, except the Knicks, who have failed to cover 11 of their last 12 home games. Philly is also a great team to jump on following a loss as they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. Lay the points in this one.
Comment