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Treasure Island ...
Texas Tech the only 'dog really drawing money tonight
Opened Purdue -3, down to -2
Texas Tech the only 'dog really drawing money tonight
Opened Purdue -3, down to -2
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Over the past 6 seasons, Jay Wright is 104-58 ATS with more than 2 days to prepare.
In the same span, Bob Huggins is 71-73 ATSComment
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Pregame Game Center ...
Public heavy on Villanova (71% of bets)
Sharps on Clemson (13% cash/bets differential)Comment
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Vegas Books Top Public %'s
Villanova -6 (62%)
Texas Tech +2 (59%)
Syracuse +11 (58%)
Kansas -5 (55%)
1-4 YesterdayComment
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BetOnline ...
Both sharps and public on Villanova
Only 26% of cash on WVU
Sharps on Nova -4 & -5 (now -5.5 -115)
Sharp $$ also on Under 153.5 & 153 ... now 152.5Comment
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Sports Insights ...
West Virginia vs. Villanova
Spread: 70% on Nova -5
ML: 60% on Nova -275
O/U: 59% on Over 153
32,886 total betsComment
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LV SuperBook ...
Syracuse drawing 75% of pointspread tickets, but Duke landing 60% of ATS moneyComment
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Sports Insights ...
Texas Tech vs. Purdue
Spread: 52% on Red Raiders +2
ML: 58% on Red Raiders +117
O/U: 54% on Over 138
30,083 total betsComment
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Michigan rolled past Texas A&M, 99-72, in the Sweet 16
Teams that won their previous tourney game by 20+ points and are popular favorites (getting +50% of bets) like the Wolverines ... the team has gone 32-48 (40%) ATSComment
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Late in the tournament, Elite Eight or beyond, betting against the public has been a profitable strategy
The team getting fewer than 50% of spread tickets has gone 51-37-2 (58%) ATS since 2005
36% of bets on Loyola
30% of bets on NolesComment
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Dogs on 13-3 ATS run since last Sunday ... 6-2 ATS in Sweet 16Comment
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Kansas State has allowed less than 40% shooting in each of its three NCAA Tournament wins
Since the 2007, teams listed as the favorite in the Elite Eight after allowing less than 45% shooting over their previous three games are 9-18-1 ATS
K-State -1.5 vs. LoyolaComment
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FSU / Loyola Chicago and Duke are all 3-0 ATS on the 1H spread this tournament.Comment
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No. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers vs. No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats
Open: Pick / Move -1 / Move -1.5 / Move -1
Loyola-Chicago and its biggest fan, Sister Jean, have taken the nation by storm over the past two weeks. The Ramblers (31-5 SU, 22-9-1 ATS) haven’t lost a game since Jan. 31 (13-0 SU, 10-3 ATS), and the bright lights of the Big Dance certainly haven’t scared them off. On Thursday night, Loyola squeaked out another tight victory, edging No. 7 Nevada 69-68 as a 1-point underdog.
Kansas State is also on a surprise run, taking out one of the all-time blue bloods to reach tonight’s 6:09 p.m. ET South Region final. The Wildcats (25-11 SU, 16-17 ATS) led No. 5 Kentucky almost the entire game and withstood a few charges to claim a 61-58 win as a 5-point pup Thursday.
“The sharps are on Loyola-Chicago, and the public is on Kansas State,” Bogdanovich said (Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill in Las Vegas) of activity at dozens of William Hill’s Las Vegas shops among more than 100 across Nevada. “It’s a good betting game. We’re gonna need Loyola.”
Bookmaker.eu also opened this game at pick ‘em.
“What else do you do when you have a team that’s needed three straight game-winning shots in the last seconds against a team whose highest shooting percentage in the tournament is 46 percent?” Fields pondered (D.J. Fields, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu) speaking respectively of Loyola and K-State. “It looks like gamblers think the Ramblers’ Cinderella run is about to come to an end. When the line opened, it was all Kansas State money coming in. We went from Pick to K-State -1.5 before one of our most respected gamblers surprised us with a play on Loyola.
“We settled in with Kansas State as a 1-point favorite, out of deference to the aforementioned player. There seem to be some questions about the offensive efficiency of both teams, as we have seen smart money favoring the Under.”
The total opened at 127 and ticked down a notch to 126.5 at Bookmaker.Comment
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No. 9 Florida State Seminoles vs. No. 3 Michigan Wolverines
Open: -4.5 / Move: -4
File Florida State under the category of “Another Team Not Expected To Be Here.” After taking out West Region No. 1 seed Xavier in the second round, the Seminoles (23-11 SU, 18-13-1 ATS) hammered perennial tournament darling and No. 4 seed Gonzaga 75-60 as a 4-point ‘dog Thursday.
Michigan was a trendy tournament pick in many brackets after rolling to the Big Ten Tournament title. The Wolverines (31-7 SU, 24-12-1 ATS) are on a 12-game win streak and have cashed 10 times in that stretch. In Thursday’s regional semi against Texas A&M, John Beilein’s troops rumbled to a 99-72 beatdown of No. 7 Texas A&M – a team that had just beaten No. 2 North Carolina by 21.
“It’s essentially the same thing as the first game today. The sharps are on the ‘dog, and the public will be on Michigan,” Bogdanovich said of this 8:49 p.m. ET start. “It’s lightly bet right now. The other game has got a lot more money in the pot. But by the time it tips off, there’ll be plenty of money in the pot. We’ll need Florida State.”
Bookmaker.eu opened the Wolverines -4 and moved the line to 5 before bouncing down to 3.5 today.
“It's going to be Defense vs. Depth when Michigan takes on Florida State,” Fields said. “We opened a little bit lower than some, with Michigan as a 4-point favorite, and immediately got hit with action on the Wolverines. We moved to 4.5 and even used 5 very briefly, before dropping back down. The public seems to have fallen in love with moneyline parlays involving both Michigan and Villanova, so we will be looking for an upset somewhere to kill those tickets.
“The public also seems to think that Over is the play here, but with Michigan's defense and the one-day turnaround from the last game, we are not ready to move (much) from 143.5.”
Bookmaker did tick up to 144, then dipped to 143 before going back to 143.5.Comment
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