March Madness Betting Info

[New York Knight]

ATS Trends


Underdogs: 34-27-3

Single-Digit Dogs: 24-16-2

< 40% Bets: 18-14-3

< 30% Bets: 3-1-1

Big East: 8-3-1

Big Ten: 3-6-2

[New York Knight]

These Final Four are some of the very best bets against the spread in the nation this season ...


1. Loyola-Chicago - 24-9 ATS
2. Villanova - 25-12-1 ATS
5. Michigan - 24-13-1 ATS
67. Kansas - 20-17 ATS

[New York Knight]

The Action Network simulated the Final Four 10,000 times using their Bracket Simulator, and here are the predictions ...


Villanova and Michigan are projected to win their respective matchups 70.0% of the time. Kansas and Loyola fans will surely think the model’s predictions are off, but they are in line with the betting market. The Wildcats opened as -220 moneyline favorites over the Jayhawks and the Wolverines -240 against the Ramblers. At -220, the implied probability of a Nova win is 68.8%, and for Michigan the odds suggest they advance 70.6% of the time.

The most likely championship game is Villanova vs. Michigan, which occurs 49.0% of the time over 10,000 simulations. There is only a 9.0% chance we see Kansas-Loyola next Monday.


This year’s tournament lacked a dominant team, until now. Villanova is a clear favorite to win a second title in three years. The Wildcats have the most efficient offense in the country, averaging 87.0 points per game and are balanced, ranking 13th in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency – the only team left to rank in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Nova is projected to beat Michigan 66.1% of the time in the most likely title game and has a 50.9% chance to win the championship.

The Wolverines have the next best odds at 26.4%, followed by Kansas (17.2%) and Loyola-Chicago (5.5%).

[New York Knight]

16-4 ATS run by underdogs, with 11 outright wins in last 20 games of Tournament

[New York Knight]

BetOnline ...


Early action report ... Bet count

56% on Loyola vs. Michigan (-5)
65% on Kansas vs. Villanova (-5)

[New York Knight]

If you'd faded the top public ATS and Over/ Under plays everyday during the NCAA Tournament, you'd be 11-5 so far.

Current Odds Shark top public plays for Saturday's Final Four games ...


64% Villanova -5

60% Loyola / Michigan OVER 129.5

[New York Knight]

9th time Final Four has semis featuring two 1-seeds on one side and zero 1-seeds on the other ... 1st time since 2002 its happened

1-seed has won just 4 of the previous 8

3 of the 4 times a 1-seed didn't win, a team seeded 6th or worse won (88 Kansas, 85 Villanova, 83 NC State)

[New York Knight]

[New York Knight]

BetDSI ... on LOY-CHI / MICH


"Smart money on both sides, but the pros are leaning Loyola a bit more than Michigan. Very balanced action, as we have 55% of the wagers on the Wolverines and 58% of the money on the underdog."

"Sharps and squares are both on the over, so we’ve adjusted the total up 1.5 points from the 128 open.”

[New York Knight]

BetDSI ... on KAN-VILL


“We’re not seeing a lot of wiseguys involved just yet. The wise wagers that have come in have been small and have offset each other. Public is pretty split as well, with slightly more siding with Kansas.”

[New York Knight]

Sports Insights ...


Final Four Update

56% on Kansas (+5)

55% on Michigan (-5)

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ... on LOY-CHI / MICH


Michigan opens -6, down to -5

"5X more Loyola money on account, over-the-counter action is fairly even."

Total from 128.5 to 129.5

"80% of account money on the Over and 70% of over-the-counter money on Over."

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ... on KAN / VILL


Line opens 'Nova -5, goes to 5.5, back to 5

"85% of account money on Kansas, while 60% of over-the-counter money is on Villanova."

Pros vs Joes, with sharps on Kansas and public on Nova so far. Will see more action tomorrow and Saturday; bettors focused on baseball opening day today."

Total at 155 all week, more money is on Over so far.

[New York Knight]

[New York Knight]

Sports Insights ...


Final Four Update

57% on Kansas +5

56% on Michigan -5