March Madness Betting Info

[New York Knight]

William Hill ... on KAN / NOVA


Line hasn't moved off 'Nova -5 all week

"A lot less action here, because that’s the later game. There’s twice as much money on Loyola-Michigan as on Kansas-Villanova. We’re dead-even to this one as well.”

[New York Knight]

The Action Network ...


Majority of spread tickets are on Kansas +5 vs. Nova

Popular underdogs in the NCAA Tournament have gone 101-129-5 (44%) ATS since 2005

[New York Knight]

Sportsbook.com ... on LOY-CHI / MICH


Opened Michigan -6, quickly went straight to 5 on sharp 'dog play. But public in now too. "Loyola definitely the Cinderella of Final Four, and the betting public falls in love with these types of teams."

"Teams that nobody up until 2 weeks ago had even heard of, and I doubt the average bettor even knows the coach's name or even mascot’s name. So when we saw public money at +6, we weren’t that surprised."

"With sharps and public on same side (early), we had to act quickly to avoid taking all one-sided action. But at -5, we started to see some Michigan support, enough to offset all that +6 money."

Line stabilized at 5.5 the last few days, but this a.m., "We did take some respectable money on the 'dog, enough money and enough respect for the group to adjust this game to -5.5 'dog -115."

"We have fabulous write on this game. We can’t lose money as long as the game doesn’t land 5. Even if it lands 6, we’ll be OK."

[New York Knight]

Sportsbook.com ... on LOY-CHI / MICH Total


Opened 128.5, and book had seen nothing but Over money as number went to 130.5. Thought about going to 131, but book expected sharp Under money

"The total is getting hit by sharp Under money as we speak." Just dipped down to 130.

[New York Knight]

When Loyola Chicago has the Ball ...


The all-caps, bold print question for the Ramblers is how many minutes can Krutwig play? If he can go 20-25 minutes, Loyola will have a more than legitimate shot to win. If he’s limited to only 10-15, that means Michigan’s game plan to keep him off the floor worked, and the Wolverines will likely play for a national championship.

The disparity in Loyola’s efficiency in the tournament with Krutwig on and off the court is staggering. Offensively, the Ramblers have scored 1.21 points per possession (ppp) with Krutwig on the court, but just .96 ppp when he’s off. Those splits represent an almost equal amount of possessions in both scenarios. Krutwig’s ability to command attention in the post makes the spacing in head coach Porter Moser’s 4-out motion offense infinitely better. Krutwig is not just an efficient back-to-the-basket scorer, as he is also an outstanding passer out of the post.

With Krutwig on the court, not only will Moser’s ball-screen-continuity offense run more efficiently from the perimeter, but Krutwig himself will also have an advantage in the post against Michigan big man Moe Wagner. To put it bluntly, Wagner is a very poor post defender, grading out in just the 25th percentile nationally in ppp allowed, per Synergy. Wagner is also foul prone when forced to defend at the rim. If Moser can get Wagner off the floor by pounding the ball inside early and often (which Loyola tends to do, as it ranks 36th nationally in shot rate at the rim), the Ramblers could easily continue their dream run.

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ... on LOY-CHI / MICH


Michigan opens -6, now -5

"80% of account ATS money on Loyola, 55% of over-the-counter money on Michigan."

Total opened 128.5, now 129

"80% of account money on the UNDER, while 85% of over-the-counter money on the OVER."

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ... on KAN / NOVA


Line at 'Nova -5

"2X more account money on Villanova, and 2X more over-the-counter money on Kansas."

Total from 155 to 155.5

"Even betting on account, and slightly more over-the-counter money on UNDER."

[New York Knight]

LV SuperBook ...


Loyola-Chicago vs. Michigan (-5.5, 129.5)

Bets are pretty even ... 60% of the money wagered is on the Ramblers

[New York Knight]

Villanova now a 7-point favorite over Michigan across the board.

[New York Knight]

Since 2000, favorites of 3 or more points in the Title game are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS


61% of spread tickets on Nova -7 vs. Michigan

[New York Knight]

Since seeding began in 1985, 11 Big Ten teams have played for a national championship going 1-10 ATS


<40% of bets are on Michigan +7

[New York Knight]

Villanova became only the fourth team since 2005 to win a Final Four game shooting 55% or better.


The previous three won and covered in the Title game

[New York Knight]

Villanova has won nine consecutive games by double-digits

Since 1985, only four other teams have entered the National Championship after winning five NCAA Tournament games by double-digits:

2000 Michigan State
2001 Duke
2009 UNC
2016 UNC

[New York Knight]

Can Nova become the 6th team to finish tournament 6-0 ATS??

2006 Florida
2009 UNC
2014 UConn
2015 Duke
2016 Villanova

[New York Knight]

Villanova -7 vs. Michigan for the National Championship


This is the 3rd largest title game spread since 2005:

UNC -7.5 vs. Michigan State in 2009 (won, covered)
Duke -7 vs. Butler in 2010 (won, didn't cover)