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3-Unit Play. #921. Take Houston Astros -112 over Seattle Mariners (Monday @ 10:10pm est)
The line continues to drop in favor of Seattle but that's ok we will still ride Houston here behind the former Cy Young Winner in Keuchel to bounce-back and pick up his first win here. We like that Dallas only pitched 4 innings in his last game and he is in need of a much needed bounce-back. We like this Astros team did not do well in their last game against Bartolo Colon who stifled them and they are in need of a bounce-back here after losing back to back games and a pitcher looking for a bounce-back in a big way. Plus, with Paxton having a fantastic game last game striking out 10 batters, he likely is in for a let down similar to his first game of the season when he was rocked a bit. Let's roll with all this motivation and for Houston to likely do well and get it done here as both the lineup and the pitcher are on a bounce-back and we'll roll with that for back to back winners today.
4-Unit Play. #701. Take Under 215.5 Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers (Monday @ 8:05pm est)
We want to apologize for the dud yesterday. We have won 5 straight years in the NBA Playoffs and similar to March Madness where we started off slow and ended red hot on a 5-0 run, we will do the same in the NBA as we are very early in the NBA Playoffs and the Playoffs last forever. We roll with the Under here in what is a high quality public fade. This is a Miami team that just gave up 130 points in their last game and will have to bounce-back today or else it's pretty much all done as they head back to Miami and Philadelphia has Embiid for that game as well. This is a Miami team that is only backed by 28% of the public here in a high quality fade and rather than take them direclty, we will take them indirectly which is the Under. Remember, when Miami has done well against Philadelphia it has been to the Under. For example, the game prior was 108-99 and 102-101. So, a team that normally gives up 101 and 99 points to a team just gave up 130 points against them. Note, the Under is 6-1 for the Sixers after scoring 125 points in their previous game, the Under is 5-2 ATS for Miami following a loss as well as that is how Erik Spo's team typically bounces back. Hence, we roll with the Under today.
3 Unit Play. Take #701 Over 215.5 Miami at Philadelphia (8:05p.m., Monday April 16 TNT)
Saturday night in Game #1 the Philadelphia Sixers racked up 130 points against the Miami Heat and easily beat them by 27 points and tonight in Game #2 I see another high scoring game. The Sixers come into this Game #2 trending OVER games going 5-1 O/U in their last 6 games and if the Heat can't control Ben Simmons the Sixers will go up 2-0 in this series and the OVER has no problem going over. Miami is 8-2 O/U on the road against a team with a winning home record. Philadelphia is 5-0 O/U against Eastern Conference opponents and the last 8 meetings in Philadelphia 6 of them have gone over.
6-Unit Play. Take #704 Golden State (-9.5) over San Antonio (10:30 p.m., Monday, April 16)
This just isn't your typical San Antonio team. They are too old and too slow to keep pace with the Warriors, especially when Golden State plays smaller. The Warriors can accidentally win this game by double-figures and will do so. We are well aware of the zig zag theory, but in this situation the Warriors won't let it happen. Look for Golden State to have this game in hand by halftime and for their reserves to keep the game out of reach for the duration. San Antonio is 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus the Pacific Division.
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