1-3-09

[Guest]

Re: 1-3-09

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP COLLEGE = 18-10


NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* NFL (10-9) .. ARIZONA


INTERNATIONAL BOWL

Conn is is 12-4 SU in this series and has covered the L/3 incl their last meeting in ‘05, a 38-0 (-18) win.
Buff is off a huge upset of #12 Ball St 42-24 (+15) in the MAC Champ gm. That gave the Bulls their 1st conf
championship ever & guaranteed them their first winning ssn since moving up to IA in ‘99. This is UB’s 1st
ever bowl gm. They did receive an invite to the ‘58 Tangerine Bowl but the players turned it down when they
learned that 2 black teammates would not be all’d to play. UB HC Turner Gill has turned this tm around in his
3 yrs and has been mentioned in reference to open coaching spots. UB played 6 bowl caliber tms and went
2-4 SU but 5-1 ATS. This is UC’s 2nd str bowl and 3rd in schl history. Edsall is 1-1 SU & ATS incl LY’s 24-10
loss to Wake. In the L/2 bowls Conn has developed a reputation as a school that travels well. UC captured
its 1st ever share of the BE Title in ‘07 & with a soft sked expectations were high entering ‘08 as the Huskies
returned 19 of its 24 sts. After a big win over #24 Cincy to go 6-2, Conn lost 3 of the L/4 and fell out of the
BE race. UC has played 6 bowl caliber tms (1-5 SU & ATS) being outscored 25-16 but outgaining those foes
322-276. The Huskies are 3-6 SU & 4-5 ATS on turf, while the Bulls play their HG on turf. Conn has 8 Sr among
13 upperclassmen sts, while Buffalo has 9 Sr’s among their 15 upperclassmen starters. Both tms played
Temple and Pitt with UB going 1-1 SU & ATS while UC went 1-1 SU but 0-2 ATS. The Bulls were outscored
by 4.5 ppg but outgained them by 28 ypg. UC was outscored by 11 ppg but outgained them by 78 ypg.
A huge factor in the Bulls’ 8 wins have been a +15 TO margin as they led the MAC with 20 fmbl rec’s.
UB scored 28 pts off 5 Ball St TO’s incl 2 long FR for TD. The Bulls have our #69 offense & are avg 31
ppg & 381 ypg. They are led by 4 yr starting QB Willy, who holds every major UB ssn & car pass records.
RB Starks had seven 100+ games TY despite missing 2 with inj. With 82 yds vs Ball St, he became UB’s
career leading rusher (3,115) despite just being a Jr & holds most of the Bulls single ssn & car records.
WR Roosevelt leads the MAC in rec’g yards & has seven 100+ yd rec games TY incl a current streak of
5 straight. He also holds most of the Bulls single ssn records. The Bulls’ OL started all 13 gms together &
avg 6’4” 308 with 3 Sr’s incl RG Niedermier (2nd Tm MAC). Buffalo has our #84 def all’g 28 ppg & 408 ypg.
While the Bulls have just 12 sacks, 10 were by the DL but they did allow 4.6 ypc. The DL avg 6’1” 276 &
has 3 Sr’s incl DE Thompson, who led the team with 9 tfl incl a team-best 3 sks. The Bulls 3 starting LB are
all underclassmen led by the tm’s top tklr OLB Winters (3rd Tm MAC). UB’s secondary all’d 250 ypg (66%)
& a 17-8 ratio but has 2 players with over 100 tkls in SS Shannon & FS Newton. The Bulls have our #113
ST’s and are avg just 18.1 ypr on KR & 13.0 ypr on PR. They have a net punt of just 32.2 & are all’g 22.2
ypr on KR & 8.6 ypr on PR & have all’d 4 blk’d kicks while blk’g 2.
Conn has our #62 offense avg 352 ypg & 24 ppg. After winning their 1st four, QB Lorenzen inj’d his leg
vs UL in the loss. RFr Frazer made his 1st start in an embarrassing loss to NC & left the Rutgers gm with
a concussion. Third string QB Endres started 2 gms before Lorenzen made a surprise start in the Syr win.
Edsall proclaimed Lorenzen the leader of the tm as he is 14-7 as starter. He is avg 103 ypg (48%) with a
2-8 ratio. Conn has relied on the legs of the NCAA’s #1 rusher Jr Donald Brown (BE Off POY) avg 152 ypg
(5.4) & 17 TD. FB Sherman 25 has rec (10.4). The offense has had little help from its WR’s & lost its top TE
Brouse after 5 games. The OL avg 6’6” 297 paving the way for 205 ypg (4.8), all’g just 13 sks. OT Beatty
raised his draft stock holding AA DE Selvie to just 1 tkl. The Husky defense ranks as our #19 unit all’g 282
ypg & 20 ppg. The DL avg 6’2” 258 with 3 Sr’s all’g 117 rush ypg (3.5) led by DE’s Williams & Brown who
has 10 sks. LB corp is led by two Soph that had breakout years as frosh in ‘07, in Lutrus & Wilson. The
secondary is led by All BE CB Butler who has 44 car starts but missed the L/3 with inj (CS) & FS Vaughn
with 9 int the L2Y. The surprise has been 1st year starter Soph CB Howard with 4 int & 8 pbu. Conn has
our #107 ST’s led by PR Howard avg 11.8 ypr with 1 TD. K Ciaravino struggled mid ssn & Teggert came in
relief hitting a 12-13. UC had 5 blk’d kicks incl 3 vs NC.
Buffalo is the surprise MAC champion after knocking off Ball St while Conn finished with 2 disappointing
losses but a closer look at each team’s final games show Conn outgained Pitt by 77 yds and lost by 24 pts while
Buff was outgained by 202 yds and won by 18. While the offenses are close Conn has a massive defensive
edge and will be able to slow the Buffalo offense. It may not be easy to back a team when they’re QB’s have
combined for a 4-17 ratio but there is clearly a talent difference here between the Big East and MAC team.
FORECAST: CONNECTICUT BY 14
RATING: 2*





ATL VS ARIZ

ARZ is making its 1st playoff berth S/’98, got their 1st division title S/’75 & their 1st playoff HG S/’47. The Falcons have made a stunning turnaround from ‘07 with a rookie GM, HC, QB & LT to earn the #5 seed in the NFC. ARZ beat ATL 30-27 LY but failed to cover as a 10 pt HF. ARZ had a 24-10 lead mid 4Q but needed a 29 yd FG to force OT. ARZ only had a 32 yd edge as Warner passed for 369 yds (67%) with a 3-0 ratio for his 2nd highest passing mark of the year. CAR, PHI, MIN & STL are the common foes here with ARZ going 2-3 SU & 2-2-1 ATS with both wins being vs STL. ATL went 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS beating MIN 24-17 as a 3 pt AD a week after MIN shredded ARZ 35-14. ARZ is 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS at home TY with a 368-324 yd edge & 30-22 avg score. ATL is 4-4 SU & ATS on the road TY with a 359-261 yd edge & 24-16 avg score. ARZ is just 2-6 SU & 2-5-1 ATS vs teams with a winning record with 1 win vs MIA in their 1st road game in Wk 2 and beating DAL in OT. ATL is 4-3 SU & 3-3-1 ATS vs teams with a winning record. ARZ rates a sizeable edge with Warner’s playoff experience at QB & Whisenhunt’s playoff experience with PIT though Mike Smith was with JAX in LY’s playoff run.
Matt Ryan is easily the best choice for ROY & was the 1st Falcons rookie QB to start an opener S/’75. He has 9 games of 0 int & had a streak of 9 consec 200 yd passing games. He did enter a favorable situation as Michael Turner was signed to be the feature back & he has tallied 11 games of 100+ yds rushing. He finished 2nd in rushing TY with 1,699 yds just 61 yds short of Adrian Peterson. Roddy White broke out in ‘07 to be a #1 WR & followed it up with a better ‘08. Michael ******* finally developed into a competent #2 WR. Jerious Norwood is used as a 3rd Dn RB in passing situations much like Kevin Faulk in NE & is a solid weapon on KR’s. ATL has had 4 OL start all 16 games with LT Baker missing 8 (back inj) & they have done a solid job with just 17 sk all’d. Defensively ATL found themselves to be in good shape entering TY despite concerns about the secondary. Mike Smith took a calculated risk & reduced DE Abraham’s onfield snaps to 60% & was rewarded with 16.5 sk. ATL is vulnerable to the run giving up 128 ypg (4.9) with 8 games of 125 yds rushing. Keith Brooking is the leader of the LB group but MLB Curtis Lofton is a rapidly developing star. ATL pass rush makes up for their avg secondary & while they have allowed a 20-10 ratio with a 59% comp rate and a solid 6.9 ypa. ATL has our #7 spec teams unit allowing an NFL record 2.5 ypr on PR’s on just 20 returns.
ARZ is a very 1 dimensional offense relying on Warner to quickly get into a rhythm & set the tempo. He has seven 300 yd passing games and 3 WR’s that have 1,000 yds. Warner has had trouble with physical D’s going 2-7 SU & 1-7-1 ATS as they disrupt the timing of the WR routes. Boldin & Fitzgerald are the best WR tandem with Breaston breaking out as the slot WR. However, the rushing game has been anemic avg just 74 ypg (3.5) & has been held to under 100 yds rushing in 11 games. ARZ benched RB James due to poor production & went with Tim Hightower in the 2H of the year but minus his 109 yd (5.0) game vs STL he has just 290 yds (2.4) on the yr. ARZ has started the same OL for all 16 gms & while they are 11th in sks all’d much of that is due to ARZ’s longer routes. The TE’s are a virtual non-factor in the ARZ system. DC Clancy Pendergast heads up a scheme oriented defense that gave up 414 yds offense in its 4 games prior to SEA. ARZ runs a hybrid 4-3/3-4 system & none of the starting DL have started all 16 TY. After tallying 21 sk the first 8 ARZ has just 10 over the final 8 partially due to DE LaBoy missing most of the 2H of the season due to groin injury in the DAL game. ARZ has an active LB unit but the run defense slipped in the 4 games prior to SEA allowing 173 yds rushing (4.6). ARZ has also given up the most passing TD’s in the NFL with a 34-11 ratio. ARZ does have a great safety tandem with FS Rolle & SS Wilson but the CB spot is suspect at best. Despite sending Sean Morey to the Pro Bowl TY the Cardinals have our #29 special teams as P Ben Graham has a putrid 32.0 net giving up 13.1 on PR’s.
This is truly a value play as the Cardinals have fallen out of favor finishing off the season wtih 2 ugly losses and seemingly struggling for a win last week. ATL, meanwhile, has become a fan favorite and comes in here with two more wins. We figure ARZ to be mentally and physically rested having clinched their div almost a month ago while ATL went through the grind of post season pressure. There is no more dynamic offense than this Cardinals pass attack and expect to see their offense revert back to what you saw at the beginning of the year. Great spot as a HD going against a rookie QB making his first playoff start.
FORECAST: ARIZONA (+) by 7 RATING: 4?




INDIANAPOLIS (12-4) SAN DIEGO (8-8)

This is the 4th time in 2 yrs the Colts & Chargers have met with SD being 3-1 SU/ATS. SD beat IND twice in ‘07 knocking them out of the playoffs in the Div RD 28-24 as a 10 pt AD. IND beat SD 23-20 as a 2.5 pt AD on SNF TY. IND lost Ctr Saturday (calf) early in the gm but had a 20-10 lead with 11:48 left. SD tied it with 1:30 left after a 70/12pl followed by a 47 yd FG. On the next drive IND was faced with 4th & inches on the SD48 with :26 left & instead of a QB sneak hit WR Harrison for a 14 yd pass to set up a 51 yd FG for the win. SD had a 394-341 yd edge & Rivers had a solid day with 288 yds passing (77%) with a 2-0 ratio. Minus the SD game IND is 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS on the road TY. SD is 4-3 SU & 3-3 ATS minus the IND/DEN games. SD only played 5 games vs below .500 teams (OAK, KC, BUF) & went 3-7 SU & 4-5-1 ATS vs the rest. Not counting the season final vs TEN as both teams rested, IND hasn’t faced an above .500 team s/SD going 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS in the rest with a 21-19 avg score. NE & PIT are the 2 common foes here. IND beat NE 18-15 but didn’t cover as a 6.5 pt HF & then stole a 24-20 win from PIT as a 4 pt AD. IND was outgained in both games (334-296) but Manning avg’d 247 ypg (60%) with a 5-0 ratio & the team was +5 TO’s. SD beat NE 30-10 as a 5 pt HF with a 404-299 yd edge in their 2nd straight Wk on the WC. SD lost to PIT 11-10 as a 5 pt AD in poor weather being outgained 410-213 with the cover coming via a bad officiating call on the final play. Dungy is 2-5-1 ATS as a playoff AD while Turner is 4-0 ATS in the playoffs.
IND #15 offensive ranking is the lowest finish ever under Manning but he’s had an MVP caliber season dealing with an inj plagued OL (RT Diem only OL w/16 starts) & a #31 rush attack avg 80 ypg (3.4). Not counting the TEN game Manning avg’d 269 ypg (71%) with a 16-3 ratio the L8 gms (4-4 SU & ATS) vs 251 ypg (61%) with a 10-9 ratio the 1st 7 (3-4 SU & ATS). Reggie Wayne has 5 straight 1,000 yd seasons with 3 straight Pro Bowls. Marvin Harrison didn’t really recover from LY’s knee inj & lost a step but remains a solid #2. Unlike LY Manning spread the ball around & TE Dallas Clark is 2nd in rec’s while Anthony Gonzalez continues to develop. After being the 3rd Colt RB to start his year with B2B 1000 yd games Joseph Addai has struggled with a right shoulder inj & while Dominic Rhodes is a capable #2, IND has avg’d 60 ypg (2.3) the L4W. FS Antoine Bethea is the only player to start all 16 games for IND’s #11 defense. They have struggled on the interior with injuries & are 23rd in rush def allowing 123 ypg (4.2). IND opening day secondary was only together for the 1st 2 games & while part of the #5 pass def is due to the weakness in the run game they are all’g 188 ypg (68%) with a 6-15 ratio. IND is 13th with 30 sacks but DE’s Freeney & Mathis are playing at a high level again TY. The Colts special teams are again a major concern with our #28 unit all’g 9.2 on PR’s & 24.3 on KR’s but unlike LY where they gave up 4 scores they haven’t allowed any in ‘08.
Once again SD clawed its way past a slow start to a playoff spot thanks to outstanding play by Phillip Rivers & a D that has improved since Ron Rivera took over at the bye. Rivers has had to put up MVP numbers with the decline of Tomlinson (career worst 68 ypg, 3.6) who has just two 100 yd games rushing TY vs 6 LY. Rivers was 1st in QBR, 1st in ypa, 5th in passing yds & 1st in TD passes prior to DEN. He’s spread the ball around well with 6 players having 27+ rec’s & 3 with 50+ rec’s. The leading WR is Vincent Jackson who is 18.4 ypc is 2nd in the NFL. Chris Chambers has been slowed with an ankle inj & while Gates remains an elite TE his numbers are down as he’s had to help out the OL with its blocking. LT McNeill has struggled with a neck inj from ‘07 & Ctr Hardwick didn’t get off to a good start due to a foot inj & the OL has given up 23 sacks prior to SNF. SD’s defense never clicked under former DC Ted Cotrell & they gave up 372 ypg with a 25 ppg avg. The loss of OLB Merriman was a big blow but OLB Cooper was susp for the 1st 4 games & Merriman’s replacement Jyles Tucker missed 4 games. Over the next 7 games SD all’d 330 ypg with an 18 ppg avg as DC Rivera crafted a better pass rush & NT Jamal Williams got healthier. SD’s #31 pass defense has been horrible TY despite being fairly healthy allowing 243 ypg passing (68%) with a 24-13 ratio & the slower LB’s are vulnerable vs TE’s. SD has our #16 spec teams thanks to a 40.9 net avg by Scifres & Sproles having an impressive 11.7 PR avg & 26.1 KR avg.
IND comes in with several advantages as they have already won in SD TY, had 3 HG’s in the L4W, rested as many players as they could LW & will have a healthy Bob Sanders in the secondary. SD has had to play 4 straight playoff games & does come in with momentum. While SD has improved the L4W IND will have playoff revenge after losing at home to SD who was down Tomlinson & Rivers. Look for Manning to exploit SD’s weak secondary for the win & don’t be surprised if Addai does some damage.
FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS BY 7 RATING: 3?

[Guest]

Re: 1-3-09

THE GOLD SHEET- college = 11-20


INTERNATIONAL BOWL
BUFFALO (8-5) vs. CONNECTICUT (7-5)
Saturday, January 3 Day at Toronto, Canada (Dome; FieldTurf)
Connecticut 30 - Buffalo 23–Buffalo HC Turner Gill has turned around the
Bulls’ football fortunes in short order. Buffalo has gone from a 4-41 SU mark the
four seasons preceding his arrival to a MAC Championship and its first bowl bid
in 50 years. Gill’s name came up in searches to fill head coaching vacancies at
Auburn, Syracuse, and Iowa State, but he reassured his players by signing an
extension and vowing to stay in Buffalo through 2013. Star QB Drew Willy holds
just about all the passing records at Buffalo and ranks 25th this year in passing
efficiency. Behind a big, veteran, injury-free OL, James Starks ran for 119 ypg,
8th-best in the country. Connecticut, which played a tougher schedule than Buffalo, ranks 10th in the
nation in total defense, 7th vs. the pass, and allows just 3.5 ypc. An added plus
for the rugged Husky defense is the fact that 5th-year sr. CB Darius Butler, who
missed the last 3 games after being injured against West Virginia, will return to
action. Butler was one of the top NFL CB prospects before being injured, and
will undoubtedly be charged with stopping Buffalo WR Naaman Roosevelt (96
catches). On offense, the Huskies rely on the nation’s top rusher, Donald
Brown, who churned out 152 ypg on the ground. He operates behind an
equally-stout, veteran OL. QB Tyler Lorenzen had some interception issues
early in the 2008 season, but he’s thrown for 3187 yards and 15 TDs in 21 career
games, and his size (6-4, 224) makes him difficult to sack and a threat to run
(580 YR career). Buffalo was fortunate to get to this point. The Bulls were 7th in turnover
margin, with a +16 mark, and won three games in overtime. This is
Connecticut’s third bowl appearance in five years; Buffalo’s first ever (they
declined to play in the 1958 Tangerine Bowl because Orlando officials informed
them “Jim Crow” regulations would not allow the Bulls’ black players to
participate). Buffalo’s defense is going to have a hard time slowing down
Brown. The Bulls “D” ranks 94th overall, allowed 4.6 ypc, and gave up 3 TDs to
Pitt’s LeSean McCoy and 131 YR and 2 TDs to Ball State’s MiQuale Lewis.
Simply put, Connecticut is the better team with overall better athletes. If the
breaks are even, the Huskies should win (and cover).
(05-CONNECTICUT -18 38-0...SR: UConn 11-4)





ATLANTA (11-5) at ARIZONA (9-7)
Saturday, January 3, 2009
TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Atlanta 11-5 9-7 24 20 153 209 43-23-16 127 220 38-17-20 -3 2.3 5.6
Arizona 9-7 8-7 27 27 74 292 51-14-31 110 221 52-13-36 0 -1.3 6.4

ARIZONA 26 - Atlanta 22—First home playoff game for the Cardinals since
1947, when RB Charley Trippi & QB Paul Christman wore tennis shoes on the
frozen turf at Comiskey Park to lead the Chicago Cardinals to a 28-21 NFL title
win against the Eagles. It’s been a long, long wait, but there are enough
positives to side with the Cards at their desert dome, where they are 6-3 as a
home dog since moving there in 2006, usually getting rabid support.
Arizona holds a valuable playoff experience edge at QB, with Kurt Warner
(30 TDs, 14 ints. TY), throwing to big, veteran wideouts Fitzgerald & Boldin
(expected to return next week). And the Cards might have re-discovered RB
Edgerrin James last week when he rushed for 100 yards after moving aside TY
in favor of younger backs. Rookie HC Mike Smith, QB Matt Ryan (16 TDs, 11 ints.), and RB Michael
Turner (1699 YR) deserve great credit for resurrecting the Falcons. But,
remember, five of Arizona’s seven losses TY came in tough games in the
eastern time zone. With their momentum restored by last week’s win, the
situation favors the home-lovin’ Cards in this battle of birds. TV-NBC
(07-ARIZ. 30-Atl. 27 (OT)...Az.24-21 At.23/102 Az.27/76 Az.36/53/0/361 At.28/42/1/303 Az.0 At.0)
(07-ARIZONA -10' 30-27 (OT)...SR: Arizona 14-10)





INDIANAPOLIS (12-4) at SAN DIEGO (8-8)
Saturday, January 3, 2009
TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Indianapolis12-4 8-8 24 19 80 256 45-13-27 123 188 28-18-6 9 2.5 6.4
San Diego 8-8 7-9 27 22 108 241 51-13-34 103 247 39-11-25 5 3.4 6.9

*Indianapolis 24 - SAN DIEGO 20—These two foes are certainly familiar
with one another, with this the fourth meeting since last season. San Diego
famously won both encounters in 2007, a fluky 23-21 regular-season win and
a not-so-fluky 28-24 playoff success at Indy when backup QB Billy Volek rode
to rescue in 4th Q. Indy, however, returned favor Nov. 23 at Qualcomm
Stadium, squeezing out a 23-20 win when PK Adam Vinatieri hit a 51-yard FG
at final gun. Thus, anticipating another closely-contested affair would seem to
be in order. And in that scenario, we believe a slightly-better case can be made
for Indy. Granted, as it did a year ago when winning its last 6 heading into the
postseason, San Diego enters playoffs hot, with 4 wins in a row. QB Philip
Rivers is on fire, L.T. finally resembling his old self, and Darren Sproles has
emerged as an effective change-of-pace RB. Still, it’s not quite the same Charger
team as LY, especially on defense, without key playmaker Shawne Merriman.
And Colts are hot, too, riding an NFL-best 9-game win streak into
postseason, and now with defensive leader S Bob Sanders available for
rematch after he missed first meeting due to injury. But it’s the presence of
Peyton Manning, and Indy’s innate ability to survive close calls this season (6
wins by 4 or fewer, including road wins at Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and at San Diego) that makes
us believe Colts more likely to prevail in another anticipated nailbiter. TV-NBC
(08-Indy 23-S. DIEGO 20...S.21-19 S.25/120 I.23/91 S.24/31/0/274 I.32/44/1/250 I.0 S.1)
(07-S. DIEGO 23-Indy 21...I.25-11 S.24/91 I.26/75 I.34/56/6/311 S.13/24/2/86 S.1 I.1)
(07-S. Diego 28-INDY 24...I.29-20 S.30/99 I.18/44 I.33/48/2/402 S.17/23/1/312 S.0 I.1)
(08-Indy +3 23-20; 07-S. DIEGO +3' 23-21, S. Diego +9 28-24 (Playoffs)...SR: San Diego 15-10)

[Guest]

Re: 1-3-09

THE SPORTS REPORTER college= 17-13

SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (20-18-2).... SD

SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (25-32-1)...UCONN



BEST BET
CONNECTICUT over BUFFALO by 16
Buffalo ran through its initial allotment of 3,000 International Bowl tickets in less than 48
hours, then doubled those sales the next few days. With Toronto’s proximity to Buffalo,
the MAC Champion Bulls will ride the wave to an impressive, cheering victory, right? Well,
the next time fans come down from the stands to make plays, you can start considering
it as a factor in future results. UConn lost its bowl game last season to a Wake Forest
team whose defense is as sound as there is from the line through the secondary in the
nation. The same can’t say that about UB’s D, which needed to work turnover magic to
help offset the yielding of yardage, a per game total which landed that unit in the dreaded
400 Yards Per Game Club. Remember how we liked supposedly offensively-challenged
South Florida of the Big East against supposedly offensively potent Memphis of
C-USA? Supposedly offensively-challenged South Florida scored 41 points and allowed
only 14? Similar theme here. Buffalo’s offense has been there all season long, sometimes
with four wide sets, sometimes in the Power I. Whatever they've been in, they have
moved the ball and scored. But Connecticut’s defense is the best they’ll have faced all
season. Buffalo tailback James Starks generally doesn't have strong games against BCS
opponents. QB Drew Willy normally doesn’t throw interceptions, but Connecticut’s secondary
has more thieves in it than he is accustomed to seeing, and this game marks the
return of All-Big East CB Darius Butler, a likely first-round NFL pick. Extra practice time
gives UConn QB Tyler Lorenzen a chance to get in mid-season form after his injury-laden
season never really started. Buffalo’s defense got only 12 sacks for the season, so with
the nation’s leading rusher Donald Brown to hand off to and create good down-and-distance
situations, Lorenzen figures to enjoy time the few times he throws. You can’t sack
the quarterback when the running back is making first downs, or gaining yardage that
facilitates the making of first downs. CONNECTICUT, 33-17.




SATURDAY, JANUARY 3
*ARIZONA over ATLANTA by 2
It is written that NFL playoff games are won by rushing the football and playing solid defense.
That particular route is the be-all and end-all of post-season football, the path to certain success.
But conventional wisdom is often for the birds – which both mascots in this match-up
happen to be. What do birds do best? They fly out the windows. Ergo, this call on a warmweather
based passing team playing home against a run-based visitor. This is not Pittsburgh in
January with wind and cold temps, where Cardinals’ head coach Ken Whisenhunt, as offensive
coordinator for some good Steelers teams, oversaw a smash-mouth offense built for the prevailing
conditions. This team is structured for its location. Arizona rushes for the fewest yards
per game in the NFL: 73, which is less than half of the Falcons’ rushing output per game. The
Arizona defense allowed 27 points per game, the largest per-game yield of all 16 of this season’s
playoff teams, almost a TD more than Atlanta’s average defensive points yield. But this is
no average game. The Cardinals come off two blowout defeats, followed by a routine 34-21 win
over Seattle that anybody else in the NFL’s field of 16 could have produced. “You don’t want to
go into the post-season playing the way the Cardinals have been playing lately. Blah-blah. Blahblah-
blah.” Atlanta enters off three straight wins. “You want to have that kind of momentum
heading into the post-season. Nobody wants to play these Falcons right now. Blah-blah. Blahblah-
blah.” Realities are that nobody fears anybody, and that Atlanta has strung together onescore
victories against the weakening Tampa Bay defense and back-up QB Brian Griese,
Terrible Tarvaris Jackson and the seven-fumble Vikings, and the talent-challenged 2-win St.
Louis Rams – all when Atlanta had something to play for that could have eluded them with a
defeat. By contrast, none of Arizona’s results have mattered since they clinched the NFC West
on . At that moment, the Cardinals were destined to host a playoff game on this date. The team
that was able to tailor its preparations to this particular day is taking a field goal on its home
field, against an opponent that comes off a string of all-outs. Seems fair enough. The Arizona
mandate here: Keep those Dirty Birds off our statue! Kurt Warner probably gets rid of the ball
fast enough to avoid being sacked by John Abraham, and his receivers Fitzgerald, Boldin and
Breaston are too hot for most secondaries to handle. ARIZONA, 31-29.






BEST BET
*SAN DIEGO over INDIANAPOLIS by 11
Norv Haters have already bought their tickets on the Colts, interpreting value on Indy’s nine
straight wins, a Tomlinson groin thing, and some sort of revenge advantage the Colts supposedly
own for having been ousted from the ’07 playoffs by the Chargers. Your pals at
Sports Reporter almost fell for the early pubic announcement of the Chargers’ death, which
turns out to have been greatly exaggerated. Still, the popular line this week will be, “The
Chargers are only 8-8, they don’t belong in the post-season. New England has 11 wins and
didn’t make it. The Patriots were robbed. The NFL is unfair!” Blah, blah, blah. Since when
is life fair? Are the Chargers afraid of the Colts? They respect them, but they shouldn’t be
afraid. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings vs. the Colts dating back to
2004, 3-0 ATS on the road, and their worst performance against Indy in that span has been
a loss by only 3 points. Three of those five games were played in December. The Chargers
know how to get physical with the Colts, but they can also finesse their way around the
field against a finesse team. Although Indianapolis’ offensive line appears to be healthy now
following a season of injuries, how healthy are they really? Center Jeff Saturday had torn
ligaments in one knee and a calf strain in the other leg. He’s back, but he is also going up
against DT Jamal Williams, one of the best at his position in the NFL on San Diego’s 3-4
defense? Will he last for four quarters? A rookie backs up Saturday. The Chargers’ defense
allowed 91 rushing yards to the Colts in the regular season meeting. Not great, but not bad.
Peyton Manning threw 44 passes, and if the opposing QB has to throw 44 passes to beat
you, you’re probably going to be in a ballgame with a chance to win it in the fourth quarter.
Manning’s yards per attempt for that game was just 5.8. It’s as if he was Matt Leinart,
not the multi-MVP. There are many land mines in San Diego’s secondary, and Manning
knows that better than anybody since they picked him 9 times in two games last season,
once more in ‘08. Norv Turner wasn’t hired to win 14 games and lose in the first round of
the post-season with a burned-out team. He was hired to win the Super Bowl. The San
Diego running backs may not have been as productive as fantasy leaguers would like them
to have been this season, but unlike last season, Tomlinson isn’t on the sidelines for a playoff
game yet. And chasing Sproles on screen passes is no fun. SAN DIEGO, 38-27.

[Guest]

Re: 1-3-09

NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS = 8 - 4




INTERNATIONAL BOWL

Buffalo is the surprise MAC Champ after defeating 12-0 Ball St in the MAC Champ game they
chose to play in this bowl just across the border so their fan showing should be strong. PP calls for
UC to win by 5 (line 4) with a convincing 380-260 yd edge. We agree with the yds and like UC.
1? CONNECTICUT 24 BUFFALO 19

[Guest]

Re: 1-3-09

VEGAS EXPERTS THE EDGE





Over Atlanta/Arizona

San Diego

[Guest]

Re: 1-3-09

Bruce Feldman = 19-10
Senior writer with ESPN The Magazine

Saturday, Jan. 3

UConn 35, Buffalo 20: Even though the Huskies lost five of their last seven, I still like them here because of their outstanding running back, Donald Brown, against the nation's 83rd-ranked run defense. Turner Gill's team has some dangerous weapons, but it'll be matched up against a very underrated secondary (eighth in the country in pass D).

[Guest]

Re: 1-3-09

Kevin O'Neil's "The Max" COLLEGE- 9-14

KEVIN O'NEILL (THE MAXX) (10-18 -1)... ... INDY ...ATL



NFL System from Dave Fobare,
Really A Bad Defense? In their first game of the playoffs, play any NFL team that
gives up more than 21 points per game.
Pointspread Record Since 1983: 21-11 (65.6%)
This week’s application: Arizona Cardinals, San Diego Chargers




NFL System from Nelly’s Sportsline,
Shutout, Knocked Out: Play against any NFL team in its opening playoff game coming
off a shutout win in the final game of the regular season.
Pointspread Record Since 1981: 8-3 (72.7%)
This week’s application: San Diego Chargers (play against Indianapolis Colts)










COLLEGE:
light lean to Buffalo




NFL Wild Card Weekend
Saturday, January 3rd, 2009
Falcons @Cardinals
Opening Line: Falcons –2½, 50½
Current Line: Falcons –2½, 51
Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
These teams are a pair of interesting stories, one
positive, one more mixed. The Falcons story is
simply unbelievable. From last year’s disaster with
an empty QB position to a playoff berth with a
rookie coach and QB. Matt Ryan has been
spectacular. Only 11 interceptions all season and
only 17 sacks (and only 104 yards of sack yardage).
There’s a reason he’s a legit contender for MVP. But
whether through fatigue or opponents figuring out
how to defend him, Ryan has faded some down the
stretch. (3 TD’s and 5 interceptions in the season’s
final 4 games), though the Falcons continue to win.
A mix of emerging young talent and established
veterans has been very effective for the Falcons.
The Falcons were 3-2 against playoff foes but won
yardage in only one of those games.
The Cardinals “first time hosting a playoff game in
forever” is endearing. But the way they simply don’t
show up for gamesi is quite troubling. They closed
the season 2-5 and their overall 9-7 record saw
them benefit greatly from facing San Francisco
(before they got good), incessantly banged up
Seattle, and no-chance St. Louis twice each. There
may have been a weaker division in NFL history, but
I’m not aware of it. It was 6-0 against divisional
foes, 3-7 against everyone else, including 1-4
against teams that made the playoffs. Even that
win in a dominating effort over Miami came in Week
2 before the Dolphins had their act together.
Arizona was frighteningly bad in some big games,
losing four games by 21 points or more, permitting
an average of 46.5 points in those four games.
Yikes!
But the Cards are 6-2 at home and their stats are better
than the Falcons stats both offensively and defensively.
5.7 yards per play and gives up 5.6. Arizona goes for 5.9
yards per play and gives up 5.3. But, of course, the
Falcons played a tougher schedule by far, not only against
the 5 playoff foes, but 4 games against the Saints and
Bucs were no picnic.
So you’ve got a team that’s been pretty good at home
against a club that is playing on the road in a playoff
environment with a rookie head coach and a rookie
quarterback. But despite the youth on the Falcons, they
seem to be a team we can trust in crunch time and they
outplay their stats. And we can trust them to show up.
The same can’t be said about the Cardinals. So we’ll lean
the way of Atlanta. Falcons by 3.





Saturday, January 3rd, 2009
Colts @ Chargers
Opening Line: Colts –1, 49 ½
Current Line: Colts –1, 51
Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
I’m simply not a San Diego Chargers believer. This
is a team that was dead in the water at 4-8. Beat a
horrific Oakland team, then launched a miracle long
drive/offside kick/subsequent TD comeback from 12
points down in the last two minutes against a
Kansas City Chief team that finished the season 2-
14. That kept them alive to beat Tampa Bay thanks
to a 3-0 turnover advantage and blow out a
defensively flawed Denver team to make the
playoffs at 8-8. Notice that not a single one of the
teams in the four-game winning streak was a playoff
team. No surprise there, as the Chargers didn’t
defeat a single playoff team. They were 0-5 against
playoff teams this season.
Off of preseason (not offseason, preseason) knee
surgery, Peyton Manning wasn’t healthy to start this
season. But after needing a few weeks to regain his
legs, he’s back to his historical form, with a 17-3
TD/INT differential during the Colts current 9-game
winning streak. He has willed his team to win after
win after win despite little run support due to
injuries to his offensive line. But the entire starting
unit of left tackle Tony Ugoh, left guard Charlie
Johnson, center Jeff Saturday, right guard Mike
Pollak and right tackle Ryan Diem are finally all
healthy. Bob Sanders has swelling in his knee, but
he lasted through the entire Jacksonville game and
sat out against the Titans as a precaution.
Defensive captain Gary Brackett has missed four
straight games with a fibula problem. He won’t
practice but may play.
The veteran Colts have won a lot of key games against top
opponents. The Chargers have had their moments, but
their defense isn’t nearly as good as it was last year.
LaDainian Tomlinson clearly hasn’t been in top form for the
Chargers, regressing from 5.2 to 4.7 to 3.8 yards per rush
over the past three years. He’s been beat up all season
and says if he plays here he won’t be 100%. Sproles is a
speedy and effective back, but a healthy Tomlinson would
have been a boon.
The Colts have a substantial coaching edge with Tony
Dungy against Norv Turner, who football people speak
highly of as a tactician but isn’t know for getting his teams
to a peak in a big game. They’ve got the superior team on
both sides of the ball, as well. Their special teams are not
the weakness they’ve been in past years. With as close to
a healthy team as they’ve had all year, the Colts, winners
of nine straight, shouldn’t let the Chargers home field
advantage get in the way here. They’re simply the better
team and it is tough to see Manning and Sanders letting
them lose. Colts by 7

[Guest]

Re: 1-3-09

Norm Hitzges

NFL

Double Play--Indy pk vs San Diego
Indy/San Diego Over 51
Arizona +1.5 vs Atlanta

NCAA
UConn -6.5 vs Buffalo

[Guest]

Re: 1-3-09

NBA


Saturday, January 3

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Trend Sheet
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7:00 PM HOUSTON vs. ATLANTA
Houston is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Houston is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games


7:00 PM MILWAUKEE vs. CHARLOTTE
Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Milwaukee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Charlotte is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Charlotte is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee


7:00 PM SACRAMENTO vs. INDIANA
Sacramento is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indiana
Sacramento is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Indiana
Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Indiana's last 11 games


7:30 PM NEW JERSEY vs. MIAMI
New Jersey is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games when playing Miami
Miami is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games


8:30 PM MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Minnesota is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Chicago is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games when playing Minnesota


8:30 PM PHILADELPHIA vs. SAN ANTONIO
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
San Antonio is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
San Antonio is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Philadelphia


9:00 PM NEW ORLEANS vs. DENVER
New Orleans is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans

[Guest]

Re: 1-3-09

NHL


Saturday, January 3

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Trend Sheet
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1:00 PM BUFFALO vs. BOSTON
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
Buffalo is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Boston
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 10 games


1:00 PM FLORIDA vs. PITTSBURGH
Florida is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing at home against Florida


3:00 PM CALGARY vs. NASHVILLE
Calgary is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Calgary is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Nashville
Nashville is 11-3-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nashville's last 6 games when playing at home against Calgary


7:00 PM NY RANGERS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Rangers last 5 games on the road
NY Rangers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Washington
Washington is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Rangers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing NY Rangers


7:00 PM OTTAWA vs. TORONTO
Ottawa is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games
Toronto is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Ottawa
Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Ottawa


7:30 PM CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Carolina is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Tampa Bay is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Carolina


8:00 PM DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Detroit is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-6-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Detroit
Minnesota is 3-12-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing Detroit


8:30 PM COLUMBUS vs. ST. LOUIS
Columbus is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Columbus is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home


10:00 PM DALLAS vs. EDMONTON
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
Edmonton is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas
Edmonton is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Dallas


10:30 PM NY ISLANDERS vs. SAN JOSE
NY Islanders are 2-13 SU in their last 15 games
NY Islanders are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road
San Jose is 6-2-1 SU in their last 9 games when playing NY Islanders
San Jose is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Islanders


10:30 PM PHILADELPHIA vs. LOS ANGELES
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 5 games at home

[Guest]

Re: 1-3-09

Soccer VictoriousPlay:

Hamilton Academicals FC vs. Aberdeen FC
3 January 2009 / 16:00
Soccer - Scottish Premier League
With the home team currently bottom of the premier league, with 17 points from 20 games, it seems Aberdeen has what it takes to grab three points today. The visitors, one of Scotland's historic sides, in placed in 5th place with 30 points. They are in good form, grabbing points constantly, and their away form is 4-2-3 with 12 goals scored and 10 conceded. Hamilton, in their own stadium, has a 3-1-5 record, with 11 goals scored and 12 conceded. More than their track record, is their form that tells us to chose Aberdeen's side, since the home team has 11 defeats in their last 15 games.
Pick: 3* Aberdeen (-0.25)
Odds: 1.89



UD Salamanca vs. UD Las Palmas
3 January 2009 / 18:30
Soccer - Spanish Liga BBVA
Here we have two former Primera Division sides facing each other. Teams are in different moods at the moment: Salamanca leads the table and is the top promotion candidate. They have 31 points from 17 games, and a imponent home record of 7-1-0, with 13 goals scored and 1 coceded. Their recent form, however, is not great. After struggling for a couple of games, they came back with 3 wins and 1 draw, only to lose by 0-1 at San Sebastian in the last round. Their power, however, is undeniable and makes them clear favorites when they host Las Palmas, currently 12th with 24 points. Their away record is 2-2-4 with 7 goals scored and 9 conceded, and dispite their recent form, with 3 straight wins, before that they came from a period of abundant draws. Salamanca's power makes them the favorites here.
Pick: 3* UD Salamanca (-0.5)
Odds: 1.99



Barcelona vs. Mallorca
3 January 2009 / 20:00
Soccer - Spanish Primera Division
Barcelona are already the very likely winners of this season's Primera Division. With a healthy 10 point lead over second place Sevilla, they have an impressive record of 13 wins from their last 14 games. For Mallorca, a team that already conceded 29 goals in 16 matches, it will be a very difficult task to stop players like Eto'o, Messi or Henry. Without a win in their last 6 games, they are one single point clear of relegation. In eight away matches they managed to score only four goals. It seems like an impossible task for Mallorca...
Pick: 3* Barcelona (-1.5,-2)
Odds: 1.78



Chamois Niortais FC vs. US Boulogne
3 January 2009 / 19:00
Soccer - Coupe de France
French cup game. Chamois is struggling in the National League, a low French division. They are currently 18th out of 20 and their home form is nothing to be proud of: 2-5-3. Neither is their recent form, with 3 wins from their last 21 games. 2 of those wins, however, were in the last 5 games, although one was in penaltis, which kept them in the cup. Boulogne is a very strong Ligue 2 side, currently 4th and just outside the promotion places. Away from home, their record is 4-4-2, and their recent form is decent. Just like Lille's 3-0 win against a lower division club that we recommended yesterday, today we think that, again, the lower division club has little or no chance and will naturally lose.
Pick: 3* Boulogne (-0.25)
Odds: 1.94

[Guest]

Re: 1-3-09

MIGHTY QUINN

Mighty hit with Kentucky ( 3) Friday night.

Saturday it's the Falcons. The deficit is 20 sirignanos

[Guest]

Re: 1-3-09

Sports Network

Although this showdown may lack the appeal of some of this weekend's playoff games because neither team has a strong national profile, it should provide plenty of excitement, as both offenses shouldn't have too many problems moving the football and scoring points. While Warner's experience edge over Ryan and Arizona's homefield advantage are definite pluses for the NFC West champs, the Falcons are the more balanced and fundamentally sound of these two postseason newcomers. Look for Atlanta to limit the opportunities of Warner and his star- studded receivers with its effective ball-control philosophy, and for the Cardinals to unsuccessfully prevent Abraham from delivering at least one momentum-turning play that will help the Falcons extend their amazing season.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Falcons 34, Cardinals 27




San Diego's primary weakness this season has been on the defensive end, so it was handy that during the team's four-week run it faced three mediocre-at-best attacks (Raiders, Chiefs, Buccaneers) and one that was adept at passing the ball between the 20's and not much else (Broncos). Peyton Manning and the Colts are a different animal altogether, as the Chargers, who allowed 12-of-19 third- or fourth-down conversions in their Nov. 23 meeting, would likely attest. Manning will dink-and-dunk his way his down the field as usual, keeping the ball out of the hands of Rivers and the surging San Diego offense. Rivers will have his moments, but will also have some trouble with the Indianapolis pass rush and won't, over the course of 60 minutes, be able to match Manning score-for-score.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Colts 27, Chargers 19

[Guest]

Re: 1-3-09

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

NFL WILD-CARD PLAYOFFS

Atlanta (11-5, 9-7 ATS) at Arizona (9-7 SU and ATS)

The surprising Falcons, who went 4-12 during a disastrous 2007 season filled with the Michael Vick saga and coach Bobby Petrino’s bizarre exit, travel to University of Phoenix Stadium as a wild-card to take on the NFC West champion Cardinals.

Atlanta held off St. Louis 31-27 as a 14-point chalk in last week’s regular-season finale, capping the year on a three-game SU streak (1-2 ATS) that nearly vaulted the Falcons from worst-to-first in the NFC South. QB Matt Ryan, named the offensive rookie of the year earlier this week, had a disappointing outing (10 of 21, 160 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) as Atlanta lost the turnover battle 3-0. But RB Michael Turner made up for that by plowing for 208 yards and a TD, and fellow RB Jerious Norwood’s 45-yard TD run was the game-winner late in the fourth quarter as the Falcons rushed for 263 yards.

Arizona topped Seattle 34-21 as a seven-point home chalk Sunday, halting a two-game SU and ATS skid in which the Cards were blown out 35-14 at home against Minnesota and 47-7 at New England. Against the Seahawks, QB Kurt Warner (19 of 30, 263 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT) got back on track, with wideout Larry Fitzgerald catching five of those passes for 130 yards and two TDs. RB Edgerrin James got out of the sideline doghouse, rushing for 100 yards on just 14 carries in his most extensive playing time since Week 5.

Atlanta is on a 4-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, most recently losing 30-27 in overtime late last season, but covering as an 11-point road ‘dog.

While the Falcons didn’t clinch a postseason berth until a victory at Minnesota two weeks ago, Arizona clinched its first division title with three games to go.

Behind free-agent acquisition Turner (1,699 rushing yards, 17 TDs), Atlanta features the league’s second-best running attack at 152.7 ypg, the sixth-best total offense (361.2 ypg) and the 10th-best scoring offense (24.4 ppg). Defensively, Atlanta allows 20.3 ppg (11th) and 347.9 ypg (24th), but despite their 11 wins, the Falcons finished the year with a minus-3 turnover margin.

Arizona ranked in the top five in the NFL in scoring offense (26.7 ppg, 3rd), total offense (365.8 ypg, 4th) and passing offense (292.1 ypg, 2nd). Warner completed 67.1 percent of his passes for 4,583 yards (second) and 30 TDs, against 14 INTs. On defense, Arizona ranked 28th in the league in points allowed (26.6 ppg) and yielded an average of 331.5 total ypg (19th). The Cards finished the season with an even turnover margin.

The Falcons went 7-3 ATS in non-divisional games this season, and they are on additional ATS surges of 4-0 as a road chalk of three points or less, 5-2 as a short favorite regardless of site, 6-1 after a non-cover and 13-5 on grass. Also, the SU winner went 14-2 ATS for Atlanta this year and is 22-3 ATS in the Falcons’ last 25 games.

The Cardinals, in the playoffs for the first time in 10 years and hosting a postseason game for the first time since 1947, went 2-4 SU and ATS in their last six games and are on further pointspread slides of 2-7 as an underdog and 0-4 getting three points or less. However, they are 5-0 ATS in their last five Saturday starts.

The over has cashed in Atlanta’s last five Saturday games, but otherwise the team is on under runs of 37-14-1 on the highway, 9-4 with the Falcons as a favorite, 6-0 with the Falcons a road chalk and 5-1 against winning teams. Conversely, the over for Arizona is on tears of 35-16 overall, 9-1 at home, 15-3 against winning teams, 21-7 on grass and 37-14 with the Cards catching points.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA


Indianapolis (12-4, 8-8 ATS) at San Diego (8-8, 7-8-1 ATS)

The red-hot Colts take their nine-game winning streak and No. 5 seed to Qualcomm Stadium to take on the Chargers, who won their last four games to claim the title in the dismal AFC West.

Indianapolis ripped AFC No. 1 seed Tennessee 23-0 last week as a three-point home pup in what was a meaningless game for both teams, which were locked into their respective playoff slots. QB Peyton Manning saw limited action, but he completed all seven of his passes for 95 yards and a TD, which turned out to be the only score the Colts would need. Indy posted a huge 390-125 yardage edge as the Titans rested or limited several players, and neither team committed a turnover.

San Diego plastered Denver 52-21 as a seven-point home chalk in a winner-takes-the-division contest, improving to 3-1 ATS in its last four games and becoming the only team in NFL history to make the playoffs after a 4-8 start. QB Philip Rivers (15 of 20, 207 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) continued his stellar play and led a turnover-free offense, while RBs Darren Sproles (14 carries, 115 yards, 1 TD) and LaDainian Tomlinson (14 carries, 96 yards, 3 TDs) paced a ground game that rolled up a franchise-record 289 yards. The Chargers outgained the Broncos 491-406 and won the time-of-possession battle by more than 12 minutes (36:07-23:53).

Indianapolis went to San Diego on Nov. 23 and edged the Chargers 23-20 as a three-point road ‘dog, halting a three-game SU and four-game ATS surge by the Chargers in this seemingly annual rivalry. Last year, San Diego beat the Colts during the regular season 23-21 as a 3½-point home underdog, then upended Indy 28-24 as a healthy 10½-point road pup in the AFC divisional playoff round. The underdog is on a 6-0 ATS tear in this series, and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes.

Indy finished in the middle of the pack this season offensively, averaging 23.6 points (15th) and 335.5 total yards per game (15th), but the Colts’ passing game rated fifth (255.9 ypg), with Manning completing 66.8 percent of his throws for 4,002 yards (sixth) with 27 TDs and 12 INTs. Defensively, Indianapolis rated seventh in the league in points allowed (18.6) and were 10th in total yards allowed (310.9). Also a big factor to the Colts’ success was the fact they finished with a plus-9 turnover differential.

San Diego finished second in the league in scoring at 27.4 ppg and put up 349 ypg (11th), including 241.1 passing yards (seventh). Rivers finished as the NFL’s highest rated passer, completing 65 percent of his throws for 4,009 yards (5th in the league) and 34 TDs (tied for first) with just 11 INTs. On defense, the Chargers allowed 349.9 ypg (25th), but that only translated into 21.7 ppg for their opponents (15th), and the Chargers had a plus-4 turnover differential.

The Colts are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after a spread-cover and went 5-8 ATS as a favorite this season, but otherwise they’re on ATS runs of 4-2 overall, 4-1 in the playoffs, 4-1 against AFC foes and 4-2 after a SU win. The Chargers carry several positive pointspread streaks, including 11-4 at home, 12-4 after a SU win, 18-6-1 against the AFC, 8-3-1 against winning teams and 5-2 in January. The lone negative: San Diego is 0-5 ATS in its last five Saturday contests.

The under for Indianapolis is on stretches of 4-0 in road playoff games, 5-0 on Saturday, 4-1 against the AFC and 5-2 in the postseason, and the under for San Diego is on spurts of 4-0 on Saturday, 6-1 in January, 4-1-1 at home, 4-1 in the playoffs and 6-2-1 against AFC opponents.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


COLLEGE FOOTBALL

INTERNATIONAL BOWL

Buffalo (8-5, 9-4 ATS) vs. Connecticut (7-5, 5-6 ATS) (at Toronto)

Buffalo aims to keep its hot streak going when it plays in its first bowl game ever, crossing the Canadian border to take on Connecticut at the Rogers Centre.

The Bulls went 6-1 SU (4-2 ATS in lined games) over their last seven contests, with three overtime victories, including back-to-back upset wins on the road at Akron and Bowling Green.

Buffalo’s run led to the Mid-American Conference East division title and a berth in the MAC championship game, where the Bulls routed previously unbeaten Ball State 42-24 as a heavy 15-point pup on Dec. 5. QB Drew Willy (19 of 28, 206 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) had a strong outing, while WR Naaman Roosevelt (10 catches, 116 yards, 3 TDs) and RB James Starks (19 carries, 82 yards, 1 TD) also had big nights. But turnovers proved the difference: Buffalo got outgained by a mile, 503-301, but the Bulls forced five turnovers while committing just two.

The Huskies ended the year on an 0-2 SU and ATS skid in the Big East, including a 34-10 home loss to Pittsburgh as a one-point chalk in their Dec. 6 regular-season finale. QB Tyler Lorenzen had a dismal showing that day, completing just 6 of 27 passes for 80 yards with no TDs and a pair of INTs, and backup Zach Frazer was even worse, going 0-for-4 with three INTs. That negated a huge ground game from RB Donald Brown II (34 carries, 189 yards, 1 TD).

These teams actually share some history, having met every season from 1999-2005, and UConn is 12-4 SU in 16 clashes overall. Most recently, the Huskies are on a 4-0 SU and ATS run in this series, all from the favorite’s role and all in blowout fashion, including a 38-0 beatdown laying 18 points in 2005.

The postseason is uncharted territory for Buffalo, but in coach Turner Gill’s three years at the school, he has turned around a program that was once the laughingstock of the nation, as the Bulls were 1-10 in 2005, the season before Gill’s arrival. Connecticut is also relatively new to the bowl scene, playing in just its third postseason contest (1-1 SU and ATS in the previous two). Last year, the Huskies lost to Wake Forest 24-10 as a 1½-point pup in the Meineke Bowl.

Buffalo put up 31.1 points and 380.5 yards per game, with a fair mix of passing (239.5) and running (141.1). Willy completed nearly 65 percent of his passes for 3,091 yards, with 25 TDs against just five INTs. Starks rolled up 1,308 rushing yards (5.1 ypc) and 15 TDs, and Roosevelt had 1,312 receiving yards (13.7 ypc) and 13 TDs. Defensively, Buffalo allows 27.5 ppg and is near the bottom nationally with per-game averages of 408.3 total yards (95th), 249.5 passing yards (97th) and 158.8 rushing yards (84th).

Connecticut, which finished fifth in the Big East, sports the No. 19 rushing offense, at 204.7 ypg, and averages 351.9 total yards and 23.8 points. Brown rumbled for a nation-leading 1,822 yards and 17 TDs on 338 carries (5.4 ypc). Lorenzen was injured in the third game of the year and missed four games, during which UConn went 1-3 (2-2 ATS). He completed just 48.1 percent of his passes for 820 yards with two TDs offset by eight INTs, but he also ran for 252 yards (4.1 ypc).

The Huskies are solid on the other side of the ball, ranking in the top 25 nationally in four defensive categories: passing yards allowed (164.5, eighth), total yards (281.4, 10th), rushing yards (116.9, 20th) and points (19.8, 23rd).

The Bulls went 5-1 ATS against bowl-caliber teams this year and are on additional pointspread streaks of 4-1 overall, 6-1 after a SU win, 20-8 as an underdog and 6-1 as a ‘dog of 3½-10 points. However, Buffalo is on a 2-8 ATS slide against the Big East. The Huskies carry positive ATS trends of 9-2 after a non-cover, 9-3 after a SU loss and 9-4-1 as a chalk of 3½-10 points, but they are on ATS declines of 2-9 against winning teams and 1-4 in non-conference play.

The over for Buffalo is on stretches of 6-1 overall and 6-2 against winning teams, but the under has cashed in each of the Bulls’ last eight games against Big East foes and is 13-4 run in its last 17 non-conference contests. Additionally, the under for UConn is on streaks of 5-1 against the MAC, 5-2 after a SU loss and 5-2 after a non-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO


COLLEGE BASKETBALL

(3) Pittsburgh (13-0, 5-3 ATS) at (11) Georgetown (10-1, 5-2 ATS)

Five days after going to UConn and handing the Huskies their first loss of the season, Georgetown returns home looking to pin the first defeat on Pitt as these two Big East powers square off for the first time since last year’s conference tournament championship game.

Playing the first of three straight contests against ranked Big East opponents, the Hoyas tipped off their league season with Monday’s impressive 74-63 win at UConn, springing the upset as a 6½-point underdog. Georgetown, which has won seven in a row, jumped out to a 36-27 halftime lead and never looked back as four starters scored in double figures and the Hoyas shot 47.2 percent from the field, making 6 of 13 tries from 3-point range.

Pitt closed out 2007 with Wednesday’s 78-72 Big East-opening victory over Rutgers, falling way short as a 13½-point road chalk. It marked the 11th time in 13 games that the Panthers had scored at least 74 points in a game, but they allowed a season high in points, leading to their smallest margin of victory this season. In fact, after starting out with 11 consecutive double-digit wins, Pitt has won its last two by eight and six points.

The Panthers downed Georgetown twice last season, prevailing 69-60 as a one-point home underdog in mid-January, then rolling to a 74-65 victory as a 5½-point pup in the Big East Tournament title clash. The ‘dog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, the visitor is 9-3 ATS In the last 12 and the SU winner is 7-2 ATS in the last nine (4-0 ATS in the last four).

The Hoyas have the 11th-best scoring defense in the nation (56.3 ppg allowed) and the third-best field-goal percentage (34.3). Meanwhile, Pitt is outscoring its opponents by an average of 20 points per game (78-58) while shooting 47.5 percent from the field and allowing 36.6 percent on defense (seventh best in the nation).

Pitt is on ATS streaks of 5-1 on the road and 4-0 after a non-cover, while Georgetown has covered in four straight lined games but is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games after a spread-cover.

For Pitt, the over is on runs of 14-6 overall, 10-1 in Big East action, 7-1 after a non-cover and 29-14 on Saturday. The over is also 6-1 in the Hoyas’ last seven Saturday outings, but otherwise Georgetown is on under stretches of 49-22 at home and 37-17 in conference play.

ATS ADVANTAGE:NONE


(24) Ohio State (10-1, 4-4 ATS) at (21) Minnesota (12-1, 5-3 ATS)

Minnesota will try to rebound from its first loss of the season when it hosts Ohio State in the second Big Ten contest for both schools.

After getting through the non-conference portion of their schedule unscathed, the Golden Gophers ran up against 10th-ranked Michigan State in its league lifter Wednesday, falling 70-58 as a one-point home underdog. Minnesota, which saw a 4-0 ATS run come to an end in the defeat, scored fewer than 60 points for the first time this season and allowed 70 for just the fourth time.

Four days after tasting defeat for the first time in an ugly 76-48 home loss to West Virginia, the Buckeyes got back on track with Wednesday’s 68-65 Big Ten win over Iowa, failing as an eight-point home favorite. West Virginia is the only team to have scored more than 68 points against Ohio State, which is surrendering just 56.6 points per game, which ranks 13th in the country.

These teams split their season series last year, with Ohio State winning 76-60 as a seven-point home favorite and the Gophers rolling 71-57 as a 2½-point home choice. The host is on a 7-3 SU roll in this rivalry, but just 5-5 ATS (3-1 ATS last four). The Buckeyes have cashed in four of the last five meetings, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four.

In addition to facing Michigan State, Minnesota beat No. 9 Louisville 70-64 as a nine-point underdog in its only other contest against a ranked opponent. Meanwhile, Ohio State is 2-0 SU and ATS against ranked foes, posting five-point upset victories over Miami (Fla.) and Notre Dame in consecutive games to start December.

The Buckeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall, but 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 Big Ten battles. Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home and 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 on Saturday, however it has now failed to cover in five of its last six Big Ten affairs.

The under is on runs of 38-17-1 for Ohio State on Saturday, 5-1 for Ohio State against winning teams, 17-5 for Minnesota overall, 36-17 for Minnesota overall, 37-14 for Minnesota on Saturday and 6-2 in this rivalry (3-1 at Minnesota).

ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER


Penn State (12-2, 5-2 ATS) at Wisconsin (10-3, 6-5 ATS)

The Nittany Lions, riding a five-game winning streak, face their toughest test of the season when they invade the Kohl Center for a Big Ten clash against Wisconsin.

Penn State, which faces three straight ranked league opponents after this contest, kicked off league play with Wednesday’s 61-57 victory over Northwestern, rallying from a five-point halftime deficit to cover as a 2½-point home favorite. The Nittany Lions have given up more than 65 points just three times this season, and they’re allowing just 55.8 points per game during their winning streak and 60.1 ppg for the season.

The Badgers pummeled 23rd-ranked Michigan 73-61 in Wednesday’s Big Ten debut, covering as a 3½-point road underdog as they bounced back from a five-point home loss to ninth-ranked Texas in their previous game. As usual, Wisconsin has been doing it with defense, surrendering 61 points or fewer in 10 of its 13 games and allowing just 59.8 ppg overall.

The Badgers are on an eight-game SU and ATS winning streak against Penn State (all as a favorite), rolling to a pair of double-digit wins last year: 71-44 as a 17½-point home favorite and 80-55 as a 4½-point road chalk. Wisconsin’s last four home games against Penn State have been decided by point margins of 23, 29, 26 and 36 points.

Penn State is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games after a spread-cover, but otherwise the Nittany Lions are on ATS tears of 7-2 overall, 4-1 in Big Ten games and 4-1 versus winning teams. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is on pointspread runs of 5-2 overall, 13-5 after a SU victory, 8-1 in Big Ten action, 4-1 versus winning teams and 4-0 on Saturday.

The under is 4-0 in the last four series clashes overall and 4-0 in the last four battles at the Kohl Center. Also, the under is on runs of 4-1 for Penn State overall, 4-1 for Penn State in Big Ten play, 5-0 for Penn State on Saturday, 16-7-1 for Wisconsin at home, 6-2 for Wisconsin in league action and 11-3 for Wisconsin on Saturday.

ATS ADVANTAGE: WISCONSIN and UNDER


(14) Tennessee (9-2, 6-3 ATS) at Kansas (9-3, 4-3 ATS)

Tennessee makes the always-difficult trek to Allen Fieldhouse for a non-conference clash with Kansas, which is searching for consistency.

The Volunteers suffered an 88-72 loss at Temple in their last road game, but they’ve come back to win their last three (all at home), including an 80-68 win over 24th-ranked Marquette as a six-point favorite and Monday’s 89-62 rout of Louisiana-Lafayette, barely cashing as a 25½-point chalk. Tennessee’s offense has been clicking all season, topping 70 points in every game so far, and it ranks fifth nationally in scoring offense (84.5 ppg).

The Jayhawks crushed Albany 79-43 in a non-lined home game Tuesday, but they’ve alternated SU wins and losses in their last five contests. Kansas has held nine of its 12 opponents to 62 points or less and is surrendering exactly 62 ppg on the season (37.4 percent shooting), but Bill Self’s squad has yet to face a ranked opponent.

The Vols are in ATS ruts of 2-6 versus the Big 12, 0-4-1 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points and 0-5 when hitting the road after a homestand of three games or more. Conversely, despite their recent struggles, the Jayhawks are on ATS upticks of 10-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-1 on Saturday, 12-4 in non-conference games and 6-0 against the SEC.

The over is 5-0 in Tennessee’s last five games against the Big 12, but otherwise Bruce Pearl’s squad is on under stretches of 8-2 on the road and 8-2 after a non-cover. The over is also 4-1 in Kansas’ last five overall and 4-0 in its last four after a victory, but the under is 6-2 in its last eight against the SEC and 4-1 in its last five Saturday outings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS


(7) Notre Dame (10-2, 4-3 ATS) at St. John’s (9-4, 3-4 ATS)

Notre Dame looks to extend a four-game winning streak and hand St. John’s its fourth straight loss when these Big East foes face off at Carnesecca Arena.

Since suffering a 67-62 loss at Ohio State on Dec. 6, Notre Dame has reeled off four straight double-digit wins, including a 92-82 rout of DePaul as 6½-point road favorite in Wednesday’s Big East opener. The Fighting Irish have scored more than 80 points nine times this year, topping the 90-point barrier four times, but they allowed their second-highest point total of the season against DePaul.

The Red Storm have followed up a seven-game winning streak with three consecutive ugly losses to Virginia Tech (81-67) and Miami (70-56) at home, as well as Wednesday’s conference-opening 75-54 disaster at Providence as an eight-point underdog. Twelve of St. John’s 13 games have been decided by double digits.

In the only meeting between these squads last year, the Irish rolled to a 68-55 home win, but came up just short as a 15-point underdog. Notre Dame is 6-3 SU in the last nine head-to-head clashes, but St. John’s has cashed in the last three, all as an underdog. The host is 7-2 SU in the last nine regular-season battles.

Notre Dame has cashed in six of its last eight league games, but it is 1-4 ATS in its last five games on Saturday and 2-5 ATS in its last seven against teams with a winning mark. Meanwhile, the Red Storm are 4-1 ATS in their last five Big East contests and 4-1 ATS in their last five coming off a loss of 20 points or more, but they’ve failed to cover in four straight against winning teams.

The over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these squads, and is also on streaks for Notre Dame of 17-7 overall, 10-4 on the road, 20-9 on Saturday and 20-7 in Big East play. However, St. John’s is riding under streaks of 14-6 overall, 11-2 in Big East play and 9-1 on Saturday.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


(10) Michigan State (10-2, 5-4 ATS) at Northwestern (8-3, 4-3-1 ATS)

Michigan State goes in search of its seventh consecutive victory when it travels to Evanston, Ill., for a Big Ten battle with Northwestern.

The Spartans had a successful Big Ten debut Wednesday, beating Minnesota 70-58 as a one-point road chalk to hand the Golden Gophers their first defeat of the season. During its six-game winning streak, Michigan State is averaging 81.8 ppg and giving up only 61.3 ppg, holding all six opponents to 66 points or less, and nine of the team’s 10 victories have been double-digit romps.

The Wildcats came up short in their conference opener Wednesday, falling 61-57 as a 2½-point road underdog. Northwestern, which has lost two of its last three games, has scored 53, 59 and 53 points in its three defeats, the only times this season it has scored fewer than 63 points. Today marks the team’s first game against a ranked opponent.

This has been a one-sided rivalry, with the Spartans winning 38 of the last 40 meetings, including nine double-digit routs in the last 10 games. Last year, Michigan State won 78-62 as a 10-point road chalk and 70-55 at home, but failed as an 18½-point favorite. Still, the Spartans are 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes and 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Evanston, all as a favorite.

Michigan State is on ATS runs of 4-1 on the road and 5-1 in Big Ten play, but Tom Izzo’s team is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 on Saturday and 2-5 ATS in its last seven after a SU victory. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are in pointspread funks of 6-15 at home and 1-4 in league action.

The under is on stretches of 5-1 for Michigan State overall, 6-2 for Michigan State on the road, 12-5 for Northwestern overall, 5-1 for Northwestern in Big Ten action and 6-2 for Northwestern on Saturday. However, the Wildcats have topped the total in 13 of their last 18 home contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE and UNDER


(6) Wake Forest (12-0, 4-4 ATS) at BYU (11-1, 7-4 ATS)

BYU puts the nation’s longest home winning streak on the line tonight when it hosts sixth-ranked an unbeaten Wake Forest at the Marriott Center in Provo, Utah.

The Cougars hit the road for their last two games, getting clipped 76-75 at 20th-ranked Arizona State as a 3½-point underdog two Saturdays ago – their first defeat of the season – before bouncing back with Tuesday’s 74-68 win over Tulsa as a 1½-point road chalk. BYU has won 53 straight games at the Marriott Center, going 7-0 this year, but only 2-4 ATS in lined contests. The Cougars have scored at least 74 points in all but one game this season, and they’re averaging 82.2 ppg at home (52.4 percent shooting).

Wake Forest, which closes out non-conference play with this game before beginning its ACC season at home against top-ranked North Carolina next Sunday, is coming off Tuesday’s 83-61 rout of Radford in a non-lined home game. The Demon Deacons have eclipsed 80 points in nine games this year, including the last three in a row, and they’re 5-0 in road-neutral site games (2-3 ATS).

The Cougars went to Winston-Salem, N.C., last January as a 1½-point road underdog and fell 79-62. Both teams enter this year’s matchup averaging more than 80 points per game (84.5 for Wake Forest, 80.8 for BYU) and shooting better than 50 percent from the field (51.3 for Wake Forest, 52.2 for BYU). The Demon Deacons are sixth nationally in scoring and third in field-goal percentage, while the Cougars are 26th in scoring and second in field-goal offense.

Wake Forest is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games against teams with a winning record, but 1-5 ATS in its last six true road games, while BYU is mired in pointspread slumps of 2-6 at home, 0-5 against ACC foes and 1-4 after a non-cover.

The over is on runs of 5-2 for Wake on the road, 4-0 for BYU overall and 4-1 for BYU on Saturday. However, the under is 4-0 in the Cougars’ last four against the ACC.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

[Guest]

Re: 1-3-09

Bill Simmons

ESPN Page 2 writer - "The Sports Guy"

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