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Re: 1-3-09
ATS Lock Club
Colts +1 3units
ATS Lock Club
Colts +1 3units
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Re: 1-3-09
JEFFERSONSPORTS
5-5 in bowl games
68-37 in College Hoops (65%)
50-27-2 in the NFL (65%)
NCAA FB EARLY RELEASE
UCONN-6.5 (Released early on Sat)Comment
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Re: 1-3-09
Arthur Ralph Sports
OVER 50 Colts /San DiegoComment
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Re: 1-3-09
apeche
3-2 yesterday +21*
22-22 Bowls YTD +13.4
24* UCONN
12* UCONN overComment
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Re: 1-3-09
Randall the Handle
Atlanta –2 over ARIZONA PINNACLE
The Cardinals are in the playoffs by default only, as nobody else in the NFC-West showed up this year and now they’ll take its 9-7 record into the playoffs to face the superior Falcons. Against winning teams this season the Cardinals went a brutal 1-6 while being outscored by close to 100 points. The Cardinals have no running game whatsoever and you’re going to have to go back a long, long time to find a team without a running game advancing in the playoffs. It just does not happen too often and this ordinary or below average team is unlikely to overcome that. Kurt Warner has had a great year but when you put the ball up a million times, you’re numbers are going to look good. Thing is, Warner is like a boxer that’s been hit so many times that by the 12th round he’s ineffective and a punch away from hitting the canvas. Warner has slowly been performing worse with each passing week and that’s because he’s been hit so many times and the defenses are just too complex for a one-dimensional offense. Meanwhile, the Falcons have a great running game and that just opens up the passing game. This team is just so much better then the Cardinals and that’s all there is to it. Show me the team in the playoffs that gains more yards running and that wins the turnover battle and 19 out of 20 times I’ll show you the winner. The Falcons run great, they hold onto the ball and if the Cardinals come close here, it’ll be a big surprise. No experience and playing on the road is troublesome to many but not to me, as I see this one as a complete mismatch. Play: Atlanta –2 (Risking 2.10 units to win 2).
SAN DIEGO +1.02 over Indianapolis PINNACLE
What’s incredible about this weekend’s games is that the four road teams are all favored and that’s simply unheard of on Wild Card weekend. We also see the public heavily tilted to said favorites and that’s never ever a good sign. One has to figure that at least one home dog will prevail and this could be the one. The Colts reeled off nine in a row and they take that streak into San Diego. Prior to that they opened the year with a 3-4 record and a close look reveals that they had one of the softest schedules in the business. In fact, the Colts last five wins came against Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Jacksonville and a disinterested Tennessee team to close out the year. The Lions almost beat them in Indianapolis, the Jags nearly beat them, losing by a TD and they squeaked by Cleveland, 10-6. They also lost to Green Bay, 34-14 and Chicago, 29-13. So, while nine wins in a row is still nine wins in a row, the Colts are not the Colts of old. They’re slower, they’re weaker on defense and they’re not at home. The Chargers, meanwhile, smoked Oakland, Tampa and Denver in the final month to miraculously get into the post season. The offense is the leagues most dangerous and when the offense is playing like this, the defense will usually step it up big time. When it counted most, that defense held the potent Denver offense to just 13 points in three quarters last week and gave up a gimme TD near the end that didn’t mean a thing. The Chargers, too, are on a roll but a much more impressive one and it says here that they dispose of this very ordinary intruder. Play: San Diego +1.02 (Risking 2 units).Comment
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Re: 1-3-09
Pro Sports Plays
Saturday NCAA Football
Take Buffalo (+6.5) over Connecticut
(10* Top NCAA Bowl Winner)
12:00 PM EST
Buffalo has covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 non-conference games and they have also covered the spread in 11 of the last 13 games coming off a win over the last 3 seasons.Comment
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Re: 1-3-09
Pro Sports Plays
Saturday NFL Football
Take Atlanta (-1) over Arizona
(10* Top Play)
4:30 EST Game Time
Atlanta has won 6 consecutive games coming off a loss against the spread and they have also won 5 of the last 6 games when playing as a favorite. Atlanta has won and covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games when the line is between +3 and -3.
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Take Indianapolis (-1) over San Diego
8:00 EST Game Time
Indianapolis has won 9 consecutive games and they have also won 10 of the last 12 games when playing with 6 days or more of rest. Indianapolis has covered the spread in 10 of the last 13 games when the line is between +3 and -3.
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Sunday NFL Football
Take Baltimore (-3) over Miami
1:00 EST Game Time
Baltimore has won and covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games as a favorite and they have also won and covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games when the total posted is between 35.5 and 42 points.
Take Philadelphia (-3) over Minnesota
4:30 EST Game Time
Philadelphia has won and covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 games to end the regular season and they have also won and covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games vs. Minnesota.Comment
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Re: 1-3-09
Guaranteed Sports Pick (GSP)
NFL Wildcard Weekend Early Releases
Arizona +2.5
Colts -1.5
Dolphins Moneyline
Eagles -4Comment
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Re: 1-3-09
SIXTH SENSE
Atlanta –2 ARIZONA 50.5
Atlanta struggled to defeat the Rams last week, 31-27 but they did out gain St. Louis 7.7yppl to 5.7yppl. Three turnovers helped keep the Rams in the game. They averaged 8.2ypr but allowed the Rams to average 5.5ypr. Atlanta threw for 7.0yps and allowed the Rams 5.9yps. Those numbers would usually be pretty good but against a Rams team that finished the season rushing for just 3.9ypr and 5.2yps those numbers don’t say much for the Atlanta defense. Arizona finished strongly against Seattle in their 34-21 win. They out gained Seattle 7.9yppl to 4.6yppl, including out passing them 8.9yps to 5.5yps and even out rushed Seattle 5.8ypr to 3.1ypr. Atlanta averages 7.4yps against 6.3yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. Arizona averages 7.1yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl. Those numbers would suggest Arizona has the better offense. We also know Arizona has performed much better at home this year and Atlanta’s offense has also played much better at home this year, which means the Arizona offense has even more of an advantage in this game. On defense, Atlanta allows 4.9ypr against 4.3ypr but just 6.0yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. Arizona allows just 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr but 6.4yps against 5.9yps for a total of 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. Those numbers suggest both defense are about equal in this game. Numbers favor Atlanta by 1.5 points and predict about 52 points. When I look at each team against the profile of the team they are playing – Arizona at home against above average offense and at home against a below average defense, etc, I get a final of 28-24 in favor of Arizona. Atlanta qualifies in a playoff situation, which is 48-21-0 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation, which is 40-8-0. That means the situation is just 8-13-0 without the qualifiers. They also qualify in a fundamental playoff situation, which is 70-46-4 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation, which is 49-20-3. Again without those parameters, the situation is just 21-26-1. Knowing they qualify in those situations is enough to keep me off of Arizona in this game but knowing they don’t qualify in the best part of those situations, home dogs are strong in this round, the value lies with Arizona and they are the better team from the line of scrimmage, that’s also enough to keep me off of Atlanta in this game. I’ll lean towards Arizona and the over. This game probably has a pretty good chance to go over the total but the number is set too high for me. Between turnovers and other things not going our way, they have set the total high enough that could keep this game under if things don’t go our way. ARIZONA 28 ATLANTA 24
Indianapolis –1 SAN DIEGO 50
I won’t bother with Indy’s stats from last week seeing they played their reserves for most the game. SD throttled Denver 52-21 and out gained Denver 7.9yppl to 6.9yppl, including out passing them 10.1yps to 6.4yps but were out rushed 9.0ypr to 6.9ypr. For the season, Indy averages just 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr but 6.8yps against 6.2yps for a total of 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. SD averages just 4.1ypr against 4.5ypr but an incredible 7.7yps against 6.2yps for a total of 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. Those numbers would suggest SD has the better offense in this game. And, both offenses are somewhat equal in that neither runs the ball well but both throw the ball well. On defense Indy allows 6.0yps against 6.0yps and 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl. SD allows 4.0ypr against 4.4ypr and 6.3yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. Those numbers would suggest both teams are about equal on defense with a slight advantage to SD. Numbers favor SD by 2.5 points and predict about 48 points. When I look at these two teams against similar profiles of games this year, my numbers favor SD by a score of 27-21. Indy qualifies in a playoff situation, which is 48-21-0 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation, which is 40-8-0. SD qualifies in a fundamental rushing playoff situation, which is 70-46-4 but they also don’t qualify in the best part of that situation, which is 49-20-3. SD is 0-3 SU at home against playoff teams this year but their losses were by two points to Carolina, three points to Indy in a game they left too much time on the clock, which allowed Indy to kick a game winning field goal (they also out gained Indy in that game 6.8yppl to 5.1yppl) and by six points to Atlanta. When they played Indy and Atlanta they were in the middle of losing three out of four games. Indy is 3-1 SU on the road against playoff teams but their wins have been by three points over Minnesota, three over SD and four over Pittsburgh where they enjoyed a plus three in turnovers. This should be a close game and while I don’t have the usual ammunition to make this a regular best bet, I think SD is deserving of a 2% best bet based on SD being the better team from the line of scrimmage and line value. I would also lean towards the under at 49 or higher. SAN DIEGO 27 INDIANAPOLIS 21
2% SAN DIEGO +1 (pk or better)Comment
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Re: 1-3-09
Billy Coleman's Saturday Plays
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NFL
5* Playoff GOY Arizona,
3* Indy
NCAA Bowls
3* UConn
NBA
3.5* Phil/UNDER 188
3* Chicago -6.5
3* Milw/OVER 181
NCAA BB
4* Wisconsin -10.5
3* Auburn -12.5
3* Wake Forest +3Comment
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Re: 1-3-09
Kelso
2008 PERSONAL BEST FOOTBALL CLUB
Saturday, January 03, 2009
AFC Wild Card Game
30 Units
Colts (-1) over Chargers
8:00 PM -- AFC Wild Card Game - Qualcomm Stadium
Indianapolis by 7-10
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
AFC Wild Card Total
10 Units
Colts/Chargers UNDER 50 Points
8:00 PM -- AFC Wild Card Game - Qualcomm Stadium
47 or less points will be scored
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
10 Units
AFC Side/Total Wild Card Parlay
AFC Side & Total Parlay
Colts (-1) over Chargers
Colts/Chargers UNDER 50 PointsComment
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Re: 1-3-09
IC's Saturday NBA Research
by: IndianCowboy
8-1 NFL Run4 In a row 5 Unit NBA PLAYS!Saturday's ResearchSacramento vs. IndianaThis could be a very high scoring contest. After all, the Kings have Kevin Martin back and they are shooting better consequently. The Kings Coach did not want to put pressure on his star player so he has him coming off the bench right now. Martin went for 33 minutes and put up 20 points against the Pistons and he is on my good list now as he helped cash the gom. The Kings I've been noting should go on an ATS run when Martin returns and now he has. They face the Pacers in a similar spread today. The Pacers come off a nice win at New York victorious outright as the game actually went under and totaled just 208. I can actually see the Pacers covering here as in a high scoring contest, anything can happen from a 3 point victory to a 10 point victory. In that same token, the NY contest for Indiana only totaled 208, so it is tough to take the over here with the Kings as well. Houston vs. AtlantaLike I said yesterday, Atlanta just can't get over that hump over the Nets. The Nets just seem to have their number as they won in OT yesterday. Remember, the Nets have beat the Hawks in 3 straight contests. The HawksComment
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Re: 1-3-09
Handicapper: Matt Fargo Sports
Sport: College Basketball
Game: New Mexico Lobos @ UNLV Runnin' Rebels - Saturday January 3, 2009 10:30 pm
Pick: 3 units ATS: UNLV Runnin' Rebels -6.5 (+110)
At first glace, taking the points looks like the way to go here but the Rebels should cruise here. They are coming off an upset win at Louisville in their last game and that will cause some people to be afraid of a letdown but I for one am not. This is the Mountain West Conference opener for the Rebels (for both teams actually) so while they went a solid 12-2 ATS during the non-conference portion of the schedule, it is now a new season and the goal of victorious the conference starts Saturday. UNLV is picked to win the conference and coming off a 12-4 MWC record last season, it should be in good shape to do just that. The Rebels have won seven straight games since dropping back-to-back games at home against California and Cincinnati and they bring in some good momentum especially with that win over the Cardinals. New Mexico picked up its second road win of the season with a victory over rival New Mexico St. but this team is completely different away from home where it is 7-1 on the year. Speaking of home, the Rebels shine at the Thomas and Mack Center. UNLV had a 19-game home win streak snapped in that loss to California and prior to that setback, it was tied for the seventh-longest active streak in the country. UNLV is 45-5 at home since the start of the 2006-07 season and has won 24 straight games against MWC opponents at the on its home floor. This has been a very home dominated series as the host has won six of the last eight meetings and that does not include two UNLV wins in the MWC Tournament that is played on its home floor as well. The Rebels also fall into a solid play against situation. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after a win by six points or less that are averaging between 74 and 78 ppg going up against a team allowing between 63 and 67 ppg. This situation is 51-21 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1997 with the average point differential being +9.2 ppg. The Rebels are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams that have won between 60 and 80 percent of their games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games against teams shooting above 45 percent while allowing below 42 percent shooting. 3* UNLV Running RebelsComment
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