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Game: (709) Washington Wizards at (710) Toronto Raptors Date/Time: Apr 25 2018 7:05 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Heritage Play Rating: 5% Play: Total Under 215.5 (-108)
View Analysis
The Wizards are showing some life. They have tied this series at two games and now visit the Raptors for game five. Bradley Beal was 10-of-19 for 31 points and John Wall was 10-of-24 for 27 points in game four. Washington is 1-19 OU in franchise history off a home game in which Beal was the high scorer, but did not take the most shots while recording at least one assist.
Note that the lone over was an overtime game that was under at the end of regulation.
In addition, the Wizards are 0-8 OU (-7.25 ppg) off a win in a home game in which Otto Porter Jr had a positive plus/minus and 0-7 OU (-11.29 ppg) off a win in which John Wall had a positive plus/minus.
As a team, Washington is 0-9 OU (-15.89 ppg) on the road with more than one day of rest off a home game after rebounding less than 20% of their own misses and 0-8 OU (-10.81 ppg) off a home game when they won two straight vs their opponent.
The Raptors stars were clowning around at the press conferences, but their tune will be serious and focused here. Toronto is 0-11 OU (-17.64 ppg) as a favorite after a game as a road favorite in which Demar Derozan took more than 20 shots and 0-8 OU (-19.38 ppg) as a favorite after a game as a road favorite in which Kyle Lowry had a negative plus/minus. Look at those average margins.
The last four - all from this season - stayed under by 19.0, 26.0, 24.5 and 16.5 ppg. As our long-time customers know, we love using key-player indicators involving the point guards when handicapping totals.
We also have: The Raptors are 0-7 OU (-13.93 ppg) at home after Demar Derozan scored more than 30 points, 0-8 OU (-14.25 ppg) off a game as a favorite in which Serge Ibaka had fewer than 10 points, and The Raptors are 0-11-1 OU (-10.58 ppg) as a favorite off a loss as a favorite and Kyle Lowry made more three pointers than two pointers, with the OU push an overtime game.
As a team, Toronto is 0-18 OU as a rested favorite off a road game when they allowed 100+ points in each of their last two games and their opponent is off a win staying under by an average of 16.53 ppg.
Finally, we have the fact that the Raptors committed 18 turnovers, TEN of which were Wizards’ steals in game four. Coincidentally, the Raptors committed 18 turnovers, TEN of which were Wizards’ steals in game three as well. We can expect Toronto to be much more methodical here. They should not make risky passes and use most of the 24-second clock. As evidence, Toronto is 0-9 OU (-14.06 ppg) as a home favorite off a road game when they are off two games in which their opponent had double-digit steals.
The New York Crew has its 100 Dime play on Indiana at Cleveland. The Pacers are +6 as of 3:05 PM Eastern as I put my site live.
Note from Stevo
For today's basketball action I'm turning to one of my top two NBA crews over the past six years, the New York Crew (fyi...the other would be the Cali-Cartel) for their 100 Dime 1st Round Game of the Year release on the Pacers-Cavs.
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