Friday 5-4-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-03-2018, 11:46 PM

Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans Preview and Predictions 05-04-2018

golden state star guard stephen curry will be back in the starting lineup when the warriors visit the new orleans pelicans in friday's game 3 of the western conference semifinal series. curry injured his left knee on march 23 and returned to action on tuesday when he scored 28 points off the bench in the warriors' 121-116 victory.

golden state coach steve kerr told reporters curry will start in game 3 and also indicated he will play more than the 27 minutes he received in game 2. curry didn't appear to be rusty as he drained five 3-pointers and collected seven rebounds in a strong effort that helped the warriors take a 2-0 series lead. the pelicans are well aware they have their backs against the wall but are encouraged by the fact their game 2 showing was much better than the game 1 loss. "we played well the whole game but i think we got our rhythm back," guard jrue holiday told reporters. "we got our groove back. maybe just a couple things here and there that we need to change but definitely a positive turnout from this game."

tv: 8 p.m. et, epsn

about the warriors: it was a frustrating time period for curry as he kept rehabbing his knee while watching his teammates compete in the playoffs. "it was an eternity it felt like, for sure," curry told reporters. "when the lights come back on after the starting lineups you're usually in the go kind of mind frame. i had to kind of pace myself and be patient with it. it seemed like it took forever but it was a good feeling to get back out on the floor and just let loose and have fun." power forward draymond green fell one rebound short of his second straight triple-double and is averaging 18 points, 12 rebounds and 11.5 assists in the series.
about the pelicans: star power forward anthony davis is averaging 23 points and 12.5 rebounds through the first two games but new orleans may need an explosion from him in game 3 similar to the 47-point effort he posted in the final game of the first-round series against the portland trail blazers. holiday was solid with 24 points, eight rebounds and eight assists in game 2 after struggling to 11 points on 4-of-14 shooting in the opener. point guard rajon rondo continued his strong postseason showing with 22 points and 12 assists in game 2 and he is averaging 12.7 points and 12.7 assists in six playoff games.
buzzer beaters
1. the warriors shot 59 free throws (making 46) in the first two games while the pelicans had just 20 attempts (making 16).

2. new orleans backup solomon hill is just 2-of-10 shooting in the series, while shooting 29.4 percent in the postseason.

3. golden state sg klay thompson had just 10 points on 4-of-20 shooting in game 2 after scoring 27 in the opener.

prediction: warriors 117, pelicans 113

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-03-2018, 11:47 PM

Houston Rockets vs. Utah Jazz Preview and Predictions 05-04-2018

the utah jazz have seized homecourt advantage from the nba's best team this season and they'll try to make it hold up when they host the houston rockets on friday for game 3 of their western conference semifinals. after losing all four regular-season encounters and then falling by 14 points in game 1, the jazz shot 51.8 percent and used a 14-2 run in the fourth quarter en route to a stunning 116-108 triumph in wednesday's game 2.

"this year, i think we have a better team," center rudy gobert told reporters of his squad, which was swept four straight in this round last season. "every game, we come out to win. that's the mindset." the rockets had won 25 of their previous 26 home games - including the playoffs - before a lackluster start doomed them in game 2. "last game, we came out completely opposite. tonight, they kind of caught us off-guard," star guard james harden told reporters. "we adjusted to it in that second quarter, but we can't get down 19 no matter who we're playing." harden scored 32 points and two other starters had at least 21, but houston's bench was outscored 41-22 and shot 7-of-25 from the floor.

tv: 10:30 p.m. et, espn
about the rockets: coach mike d'antoni hopes that the game 2 loss will serve as a wake-up call for his team, which he said lacked the necessary energy to compete with the motivated jazz. "we can correct our energy and we can correct the necessary focus that we need to have," d'antoni said wednesday. "you get lulled into sleep. you think this stuff's easy. it's not easy. this is the nba. this is the [conference] semifinals. we kind of got lulled into it, and we paid for it." chris paul had 23 points and clint capela finished with 21 and 11 rebounds for his fourth consecutive double-double.
about the jazz: joe ingles hit a career-high seven 3-pointers in nine attempts en route to a team-high 27 points in game 2 and the 30-year-old is averaging 15.9 points in the playoffs - up from 11.5 during the regular season - while making 50.9 percent from beyond the arc. "every time joe has needed to step up his game, he has been able to," coach quin snyder told reporters. "he's committed to that. he knew tonight he would need to make some shots and he was able to do it." reserve jae crowder is averaging 18 points in the series while making 8-of-13 3-pointers.

buzzer beaters

1. rockets pf ryan anderson has five points on 2-of-9 shooting in 43 minutes over his last four games.

2. jazz rookie sg donovan mitchell is averaging 26.1 points in the playoffs and he handed out a career-best 11 assists in game 2.

3. houston won each of the two matchups at utah during the regular season by 11 points.

prediction: rockets 109, jazz 107

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-03-2018, 11:47 PM

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Boston Bruins Preview and Predictions 05-04-2018

the tampa bay lightning may have produced their most complete performance of the season last time out and look to take a stranglehold of the eastern conference semifinal series when they visit the boston bruins for game 4 on friday night. ondrej palat scored twice in the first 3:19 of the contest and the lightning limited the bruins to 15 shots without a goal over the final two periods for a 4-1 victory wednesday to take a 2-1 series lead.

"we have to expect that we're going to get their best game," tampa bay captain steven stamkos, who scored an empty-net goal for his first of the series in game 3, told reporters thursday. "they're a very good team for a reason. they've responded to these situations all year and we just have to elevate our game." patrice bergeron scored the only goal on the power play for boston in the first period of game 3, giving him three tallies in the series and four in the last four playoff games, but the bruins struggled to get quality chances 5-on-5 for the second straight contest. "the last two games, we didn't play enough of our game," boston coach bruce cassidy told reporters. "they've played their game better than we've played ours, and they've won both games. we were slow at times, and stubborn." bruins right wing david pastrnak, who was tied for the league lead with 19 points in the playoffs entering thursday, has six assists in the series but registered only one shot on goal in the past two games.

tv: 7 p.m. et, nbc sports network, cbc, tva
about the lightning: palat recorded two points in each of the last two games, helping to occupy the puck along with linemates tyler johnson and brayden point, and has been a consistent performer in his 54 playoff games (plus-6 rating, 37 points). "he's a beast," coach jon cooper said of palat. "you probably get spoiled a little bit because i've watched that act before happening in playoff series in 2015 and 2016. those guys that kind of go under the radar and don't get the credit they deserve but they never seek it and they don't care, that's what you have in (palat)." versatile forward yanni gourde registered an assist in game 3 after returning to the team wednesday after witnessing the birth of his first child.
about the bruins: cassidy is contemplating some lineup changes for game 4 to add a spark as boston has been outshot 104-73 in the series without much punch from the bottom two forward lines and rookie forward ryan donato could get a chance. "we've got some guys that weren't dressed (for game 3) that have played well for this team," cassidy told reporters. ". ... some guys (among the forwards) have had a tough time. ... if they stay in, obviously, they need to be better." veteran left wing rick nash had an assist wednesday and led the team with six shots on net, giving him 11 in the series, while rookie defenseman charlie mcavoy logged a game-high 27:09 of ice time without a shot, but recorded five hits.
overtime

1. boston lw brad marchand was held without a point wednesday after registering six in the first two games of the series.

2. tampa bay d victor hedman had a pair of assists wednesday, tying martin st. louis for the all-time franchise lead in the playoffs with 35.
3. bruins f david backes has yet to record a point in the series with a minus-3 rating and finished with only 6:09 of ice time in the game 3 setback.

prediction: bruins 4, lightning 2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-03-2018, 11:47 PM

San Jose Sharks vs. Vegas Golden Knights Preview and Predictions 05-04-2018

while their western conference semifinal is tied at two games apiece, the san jose sharks have slowly been imposing their will on the vegas golden knights since absorbing a 7-0 drubbing in the series opener. the sharks posted a decisive 4-0 victory wednesday and have won two of three as the best-of-seven set shifts to las vegas for game 5 on friday night.

san jose coach peter deboer lamented the fact that his team had been continually playing from behind and "chasing the game the whole series," but the sharks struck twice in the opening period of game 4 and never looked back. "i know we're getting better every game," deboer said. "so i know we're going to get off the plane in vegas and we're going to play a good game, and it's going to take a real good game to win in there. we're going to have to win a game in there in order to win the series." the golden knights lost for only the second time in eight postseason games and were blanked for the first time since feb. 19, but they head back to las vegas with the series narrowed to a best-of-three -- and two of those (if necessary) to be held at raucous t-mobile arena. "nobody thought it was going to be an easy series either," vegas netminder marc-andre fleury said. "we're in good shape 2-2, going home and obviously it (stinks) to lose this one. ... put it behind and get ready for the next one."

tv: 10 p.m. et, nbc sports network, cbc, tvas
about the sharks: there had been speculation that veteran center joe thornton would play for the first time since jan. 23 due to the uncertain status of joonas donskoi, who returned from a one-game absence and supplied a back-breaking goal in the final seconds of the opening period. fourth-line forward marcus sorensen, who registered only five goals in 32 regular-season games, opened the scoring wednesday and is tied for second on the team with four tallies in eight playoff contests. "all four lines played really good," said tomas hertl, who netted his team-leading fifth goal of the postseason. "everyone is scoring, not just one line."
about the golden knights: vegas' no. 1 line of william karlsson, jonathan marchessault and reilly smith was finally shut down in game 4, combining for 11 shots on net after amassing 19 points through the first three meetings. even though san jose has pierced the golden knights for 11 goals in the last three games, the team has no concerns over the play of fleury, who notched three shutouts in the first five games of the playoffs. "amazing goalie, amazing person," defenseman brayden mcnabb said. "we're very fortunate to have him. maybe we rely on him too much, but he's our backbone, and we're 100 percent confident in him back there."
overtime
1. san jose has scored 10 power-play goals in eight postseason games.

2. golden knights f james neal has 17 shots on goal in the past three games but is seeking his first goal since the series opener.

3. hertl has scored a goal in five of the last seven playoff games.

prediction: sharks 4, golden knights 3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2018, 06:38 AM

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #8 - BELMONT PARK - 5:13 PM EASTERN POST
The Flat Out Stakes
11.0 FURLONGS DIRT FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#1 HARD STUDY
#6 SCUBA
#5 ZANOTTI
#7 HARLAN PUNCH

This race honors the career of one Flat Out, who was bred in Florida, and his career he won nine of his twenty-nine races in a track career which lasted from November 2008 until November 2013. He produced many of his best performances here at Belmont Park, where he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup in 2011 and 2012, the Suburban Handicap in 2011 and 2013 and the Westchester Stakes in 2013. His only major win at another track came on his final racecourse appearance when he defeated a strong field in the Cigar Mile Handicap at Aqueduct Racetrack. Here in just the 3rd renewal of this stakes race, #1 HARD STUDY has won 6 of 10 in his career to date, and has hit the board in each of his last five outings, winning four times, with three of those "Circle Trips" also qualifying as "POWER RUNS. #6 SCUBA, a 4-1 shot, drops in class (-3), is the speed leader, and has hit the board in four straight, including a win in his 4th race back.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2018, 06:39 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belterra Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10500 Class Rating: 86

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 4 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 AT GUARD 3/1

# 5 REEDER 5/2

# 6 ARSENALOFDEMOCRACY 5/1

My selection in this race is AT GUARD. Shows reliable speed figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group. Has a sharp record at the distance and surface, which makes me have to consider this gelding. Will almost certainly compete quite well in the pace contest which bodes well with this group. REEDER - He looks formidable in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. Must be used in the exotic wagers.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2018, 06:39 AM

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Churchill Downs

RACE #10 - CHURCHILL DOWNS - 5:04 PM EASTERN POST
The Edgewood Stakes
8½ FURLONGS TURF GRADE III THREE YEAR OLDS STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE

#11 RUSHING FALL
#7 TOINETTE
#6 DADDY IS A LEGEND
#2 BEYOND BLAME

#11 RUSHING FALL, takes a class drop (-2) this afternoon, is the overall speed and pace profile leader, and is undefeated in a four race career to date, winning each in "POWER RUN FASHION." Jockey Javier Castellano was in his irons for those four wins, and is back today for his 5th ride. #7 TOINETTE, a 12-1 BOMB, qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," also has a nice pace profile, and comes off back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in his last two starts.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2018, 06:40 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Evangeline Downs - Race #8 - Post: 9:06pm - Stakes - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $75,000 Class Rating: 79 Equine Sales Oaks

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 SPECIAL BLESSING (ML=3/1)
#1 SAINTS N MUSKETS (ML=4/1)

SPECIAL BLESSING - This horse could be close at the end. She's got a great late kick. Ran last time around the track against a better field at Fair Grounds. The move down in the class scale should suit her well. Should do well right here in this race. Weight shift of -5 from Mar 24th race at Fair Grounds. SAINTS N MUSKETS - Just missed hitting the board on April 11th at Evangeline Downs. With pretty decent odds right here, she has my interest. The return on investment when Thornton and Landry team up is tremendous. This horse has increased her speed ratings from a fig of 61 to 71 to 76 in a row.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 YES GORGEOUS (ML=9/5), #6 SHE SANG DIXIE (ML=5/1), #2 MISS WEKATI (ML=6/1),

YES GORGEOUS - This morning-line favorite may be out of shape without any recent works. SHE SANG DIXIE - Garnered a run-of-the-mill speed rating last time around the track in an Allowance race on April 13th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that figure. MISS WEKATI - The fig in the last race doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this racer as a likely underpriced contender.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #7 SPECIAL BLESSING to win if you can get odds of 3/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2018, 06:40 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Golden Gate Fields - Race #2 - Post: 1:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 PHANTOM RENDEZVOUS (ML=5/1)

PHANTOM RENDEZVOUS - Took a big class drop last out, and I think she may have needed it. Bellasis enters her at a similar class level today. I'd expect an improved performance. Have to like the way Bellasis has raced this mare back into shape off the layoff. Equine is well spotted in this sprint and I think she'll run well today. Adding blinkers often leads to a better performance on the racetrack.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 KNOW PEPPER (ML=9/5), #5 ELEGANT CHARM (ML=3/1), #1 WARRIOR MOM (ML=4/1),

KNOW PEPPER - Would have to move up off that ninth place finish last time to make an impact here. ELEGANT CHARM - Not easy to play any entrant in a short distance contest at 3/1 when she hasn't shown any on the board results in sprints in the last 60 days. This filly finished off the board on Feb 18th and wasn't close to winning last time out either. This questionable contender ran a pedestrian rating in the last race. She shouldn't run better and will likely lose in today's event running that fig. WARRIOR MOM - I just don't possess a 'use' vibe about this horse in this race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#3 PHANTOM RENDEZVOUS to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
3 with 1

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2018, 06:40 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 3

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager $2 Pick Six / $1 Pick Three

Claiming $2,500 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $8,000 • Post: 7:56P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. GIO'S GOLD is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GIO'S GOLD: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
3
GIO'S GOLD
2/1

3/2

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
3
GIO'S GOLD
3

2/1
Alternator/Front-runner
76

80

75.0

67.2

63.7
5
T'S PLACE
5

5/2
Alternator/Stalker
78

69

53.0

64.0

57.0
2
HEDOESITINSTYLE
2

3/1
Alternator/Stalker
76

62

46.3

62.2

57.2
6
SUMMER BUDDHA
6

8/1
Alternator/Non-contender
86

72

57.6

59.8

53.3
1
TROJAN THE WILDCAT
1

4/1
Alternator/Non-contender
53

50

42.0

48.0

39.0
4
MORE SUN
4

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
73

61

32.4

49.0

38.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2018, 06:41 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 2.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 87

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 4, 2018 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250 ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 HOT RODIN 2/1

# 1 PUBLIC POLICY 7/5

# 3 VISTA CREEK 10/1

I've got to go with HOT RODIN. Must be carefully examined here on the basis of the numbers in the speed section alone. Looks formidable to be up on the lead at the first call. Posted a formidable Equibase Speed Figure in the latest race. Can run another good one in this race. PUBLIC POLICY - Should compete very well in the early pace clash which bodes well with this group of horses. Earned a respectable speed figure last time out. VISTA CREEK - Players should take a good look at this one as this mare has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group. Like the finishing positions in the last couple of contests.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2018, 06:41 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Woodbine
Woodbine - Race 7

Rolling Double / Exacta / 0.20 Trifecta / 0.20 Superfecta 0.20 Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)

Maiden Special • 1 1/16 Miles • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $61,000 • Post: 4:22P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Dominant Trailer. STRIKE ME DOWN is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * STRIKE ME DOWN: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has a 4F worko ut since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. SILENT JET: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Tr ainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
3
STRIKE ME DOWN
7/5

9/5
5
SILENT JET
3/1

9/2

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
5
SILENT JET
5

3/1
Stalker
88

75

66.2

69.4

63.4
6
ADIOS MUCHACHO
6

15/1
Alternator/Stalker
80

78

68.2

68.2

59.2
3
STRIKE ME DOWN
3

7/5
Trailer
89

85

76.9

81.2

76.7
1
BLAKEY
1

10/1
Trailer
0

0

36.0

58.8

51.3
2
EVERGLOW
2

8/1
Alternator/Trailer
0

0

63.5

63.5

58.0
4
UNBOUNDED SPIRIT
4

10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
88

50

70.2

39.4

31.9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2018, 06:43 AM

Kentucky Oaks Day 5/4 Spot Plays
YTD: -$230.05

Three from the Oaks Day card at Churchill:

Churchill Downs Race 8 Gr. 2 Alysheba
$10 to win place and show on #4 Backyard Heaven (9-2 program odds)

Churchill Downs Race 9
$15 to win and place on #2 Electric Forest (3-1)

Churchill Downs Race 12
$8 to win place and show on #4 Nucla (6-1)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2018, 11:53 AM

Mike Wynn

Free Play: Free San Diego w/Lucchesi +120 Over LA Dodgers

Friday 5-4-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Friday 5-4-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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