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Tuesday 5-8-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
May 08 '18, 8:10 PM in 2h
MLB | Pirates vs White Sox
Play on: Pirates -133 at betonline
Jack’s Free Pick Tuesday: Pittsburgh Pirates -133
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a big advantage on the mound and at the plate today against the struggling Chicago White Sox. The White Sox have gone 1-7 in their last eight games overall to fall to 9-23 on the season. They are 3-13 at home, where they are hitting .231 and scoring just 3.2 runs per game as a team.
Ivan Nova should be able to shut down the White Sox. He is 2-2 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.219 WHIP in seven starts this season. Nova is 4-1 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.097 WHIP in seven career starts against Chicago as well.
Lucas Giolito has gotten off to a nightmarish start this season for the White Sox. He has gone 1-4 with a 7.03 ERA and 1.562 WHIP in six starts, including 0-2 with a 16.43 ERA and 2.477 WHIP in two home starts.
The White Sox are 2-13 vs. good fielding teams averaging 0.5 or fewer errors per game this season. Nova is 47-21 (+21.3 units) as a favorite of -100 to -150 in his career, including 22-7 (+13.6 units) on the road with a money line of -100 to -150. Bet the Pirates Tuesday.
May 08 '18, 7:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Royals vs Orioles
Play on: Orioles -143 at pinnacle
Play - Baltimore Orioles w/Bundy (Game 914).
Edges - Orioles: 7-0 last seven home games in this series; and Bundy 17 Ks and 4 BBs last three starts… Royals: Duffy 0-7 with 5.63 ERA and 1.49 WHIP this season… With Kansas City 0-5 away in series openers this season, we recommend a 1* play on Baltimore. Thank you and good luck as always.
May 08 '18, 8:40 PM in 3h
MLB | Angels vs Rockies
Play on: Rockies -114 at BetPhoenix
Dave’s Tuesday Free Play:
1* on Colorado Rockies -114 The Key: The Colorado Rockies are playing too good right now to only be -114 home favorites over the Angels tonight. The Rockies are 5-0 in their last 5 games overall with all five wins coming on the road. Now they return home with Jon Gray on the mound. Gray is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA in his last 2 starts, yielding just one earned runs in 13 innings while striking out 17 batters. He’ll be opposed by Andrew Heaney, who is 1-1 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 4 starts this year for Los Angeles. The Angels are 1-6 in Heaney’s last 7 starts against a team with a winning record. Los Angeles is 0-4 in Heaney’s last 4 interleague starts. Take Colorado.
May 08 '18, 7:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Giants vs Phillies
Play on: Giants +183 at 5Dimes
San Francisco (Holland) @ Philadelphia (Nola) 7:05 PM ET Game# 901-902 Play On: San Francisco +183
The Giants are coming off a at Philadelphia in Monday’s series opener. San Francisco is 6-0 in their last 6 games following a loss. Conversely, Philadelphia has gone 0-5 during their previous 5 games following a win.
The Phillies are averaging 4.6 runs scored per game in 2018. Philadelphia is coming off yesterday’s 11-0 blowout win over San Francisco. The combination of this data sets up an extremely profitable MLB money line underdog betting angle which is illustrated below.
Any MLB road underdog of +140 or greater (San Francisco) that’s facing an opponent who’s average 4.5 or more runs scored per game, and they scored 10 runs or more in their previous game played, resulted in those road underdogs going 46-25 (64.8%) during the past 5 seasons, and that includes 6-1 in 2018. The average money line for those 71 road underdogs was +167.2, and $100 bettors have profited $5190 since 2014 by following this betting angle. Bet on San Francisco for a 5* money line underdog wager.
May 08 '18, 7:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Mariners vs Blue Jays
Play on: Mariners -120 at betonline
My 1* Free Play is on the Seattle Mariners (7:05 EST).
For arguments sake, let’s call these line-ups a “wash.”
James Paxton is 1-1 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.32 WHIP thus far.
Marcus Stroman is 0-4 with a 7.52 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.
Stroman is coming off his best outing so far this season by going seven innings against the Twins on Wednesday, allowing two runs and six hits while walking only one in the unfortunate setback, but Paxton comes in leading the entire league with a 17.0 K/9.
Most recently Paxton went seven shutout innings against the A’s on Wednesday, allowing five hits and a walk while striking out 16.
For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.
Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Paxton should be able to easily out duel his volatile counterpart.
In my opinion, this is great value. Consider the Mariners on Tuesday night.
Good luck…Larry
May 08 '18, 7:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Mariners vs Blue Jays
Play on: Mariners -116 at pinnacle
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Seattle Mariners -116
The Seattle Mariners are playing great on the road this season at 11-6 and +5.8 units for backers. Now they have a pretty big edge on the mound tonight with James Paxton over Marcus Stroman. Paxton already has 60 strikeouts in 38 2/3 innings and has some of the best stuff in baseball. Stroman is still in search of his feat win. He is 0-4 with a 7.52 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in six starts this season. Paxton is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last two starts at Toronto where he’s allowed just 3 earned runs in 13 innings. The Mariners are 8-2 in Paxton’s last 10 starts against a team with a winning record. Seattle is 4-0 in its last four games following a loss. The Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last six against a left-handed starter. Give me the Mariners.
May 08 '18, 7:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Red Sox vs Yankees
Play on: Red Sox +190 at pinnacle
10* FREE MLB PICK (Red Sox +190)
I'll take my chances here with Boston as a massive underdog in Tuesday's series opener agains the rival Yankees. I'm not saying New York shouldn't be favored at home with their ace Luis Severino on the mound, but this price is way too much. Severino is getting a ton of love coming off a complete game shutout in his last start against the Astros, but he's just 2-5 with a 4.77 ERA in 8 career starts against the Red Sox. That includes an earlier start at Boston this year, where he allowed 5 runs in 5 innings of a 14-1 Red Sox win. Part of this line being so high is Boston starter Drew Pomeranz has a 6.13 ERA in 3 starts, but his last start was by far his best, allowing just 3 runs in 6 innings. Key here is we know Pomeranz has the talent to be a top tier pitcher and it's just a matter of time before he snaps out of this early funk. It very well could be today, but even if he struggles the Boston offense could save the day. Give me the Red Sox +190!
May 08 '18, 8:10 PM in 2h
MLB | Pirates vs White Sox
Play on: Pirates -133 at betonline
DMack's Free Play for Tuesday, May 8, 2018 is on the Pittsburgh Pirates
At 20-16, the Pittsburgh Pirates are among the few overachievers as we get close to the quarter pole of the season already. The Pirates have been solid and Ivan Nova has been part of the reason why with his 2-1, 3.34 numbers over his L5 starts. The WSox look to well be on their way to 100 losses this year. They are 3-12 in their L15 at home and tonight's starter is 0-2 at The Cell with a 16.00+ ERA. For us, it's the Pirates or nothing.
May 08 '18, 10:35 PM in 4h
NBA | Pelicans vs Warriors
Play on: UNDER 227½ -109
This is a 1* FREE PLAY on the UNDER NO/GS.
As note that NO has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four after a loss by ten points or more, while GS has seen the total go UNDER in five of its last seven after a win by ten points or more. The key for the Warriors to end this series is its tough isolation play on star Anthony Davis. The defending champs are versatile and they'll look to duplicate their Game 4 defensive performance. Consider the UNDER in this one.
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