Thursday 5-24-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Alex Smart

May 24 '18, 7:00 PM in 1h
WNBA | Sparks vs Sun
Play on: Sun +2½ -110 at GTBets

The LA Sparks travel out east to take on the Connecticut Sun today in a game I'm betting favors the home side. The Sparks are 2-0 after beating the defending champion Lynx 77-76 in game 1 of their season and than blasting Indiana by 17 points in the follow-up. With this being the Sparks third straight road game of the season, I'm betting some fatigue could set in vs a strong and under rated Connecticut side that absolutely annihilated the Las Vegas Aces, 101-65 in their opener .
CONNECTICUT is 17-7 ATS L/24 in May, June, or July games over the last 2 seasons.CONNECTICUT is 15-5 ATS when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last few seasons.CONNECTICUT is 13-4 ATS L/17 after a combined score of 165 points or more dating back to last season. CONNECTICUT is 12-4 ATS L/26 after one or more consecutive overs .
LOS ANGELES is 31-50 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more since 1997.Agler is 8-20 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less in all games he has coached since 1997
NBA Road favorites (LOS ANGELES) - excellent offensive team from last season - scored 75 or more points/game, after a win by 10 points or more are 5-23 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 82% for bettors.
NBA Road favorites (LOS ANGELES) - poor defensive team from last season - allowed 72 or more points/game, after a win by 10 points or more are 8-29 ATS L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Connecticut Sun to cover

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Marc Lawrence

May 24 '18, 7:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Red Sox vs Rays
Play on: Rays +123 at 5Dimes

Play - Tampa Bay Rays w/Snell (Game 914).
Edges - Rays: Snell 1.07 ERA with 0.83 WHIP at home this season … Red Sox: Porcello 3-5 last 8 overall away team starts during May … With that look for Snell to improve to 7-3 in his last 10 overall home team starts here tonight…. We recommend a 1* play on Tampa Bay. Thank you and good luck as always.

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Dave Price

May 24 '18, 6:10 PM in 22m
MLB | Astros vs Indians
Play on: Indians +120 at MyBookie

Dave’s Thursday Free Play:
1* on Cleveland Indians +120
The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Cleveland Indians as home underdogs to the Houston Astros tonight. Mike Clevinger is 3-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 9 starts this season and is lacking the respect he deserves from oddsmakers. He has been one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues over the past two seasons. Clevinger sports a 2.40 ERA in 3 lifetime starts vs. Houston as well. The Indians are 41-14 in their last 55 Thursday games. Cleveland is 11-2 in Clevinger’s last 13 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Indians are 8-3 in Clevinger’s last 11 home starts. Take Cleveland.

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Sal Michaels

May 24 '18, 7:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Red Sox vs Rays
Play on: Rays +123 at pinnacle

Free Play on Rays +123

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John Ryan

May 24 '18, 7:00 PM in 1h
WNBA | Mystics vs Fever
Play on: Fever +4 -105 at betonline

Ryan’s 10-Star NBA Playoff Total of the Year goes Wednesday!
Ryan correctly predicted that Houston would win last night and is now hitting 65% ATS winners in the playoffs. The 10-Star play is the strongest grading that his SIM Algorithm program can identify and why it gets GOY status. The research featring advanced data analytics is like getting the box score before the game even starts. One of these metrics has gone 21-3 hitting 88% winners.
John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play
Connecticut (314)

The Matchup
LOS ANGELES (2 - 0) at CONNECTICUT (1 - 0)

Start Time
Thursday, 5/24/2018 7:00 PM

SIM grading
7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.

Recommended Strategy
Place a 7-star wager on Connecticut using the line, which currently shows them installed as a 2-point home dog.
SIM Matching Game Situations
Connecticut is a solid money making:
28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) when they grab 8 to 12 offensive rebounds in a game over the last 3 seasons.
19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in games where they force 12 or fewer turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) when they score 78 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons.


Los Angeles is a money burning:
48-74 ATS (-33.4 Units) when they make 22% to 28% of their three point attempts in a game.
65-111 ATS (-57.1 Units) when they attempt 4 to 9 less free throws than opponents in a game.
33-66 ATS (-39.6 Units) when they allow 78 to 82 points in a game.
11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) when they allow 78 or more points in a game over the last 3 seasons.




Game Intelligence Discussion Points
Play against road favorites that were excellent offensive teams from last season scored 75 or more points-per-game, after a win by 10 points or more.
23-5 since 1997 for 82.1%, $1750 per $100 wagered.







Methodologies and Subscriptions
If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several analytical tools using machine learning techniques - some of which have been around since the 1950's. Also, have deployed AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and have augmented total rate of returns in all sports.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins

May 24 '18, 8:10 PM in 2h
MLB | Mets vs Brewers
Play on: Mets +140 at YouWager

Free Play on Mets +140

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Ross Benjamin

May 24 '18, 7:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Red Sox vs Rays
Play on: Rays +120 at MyBookie

Ross Benjamin has the NBA winning total on Thursday’s Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals between Golden State/Houston (9:05 ET). Ross is 3-0 with his NBA Playoff picks over the past 3 days. He’s also an outstanding 21-11 (66%) L32 with his MLB picks and that includes 12 money line underdog winners. You need to spend money to make money and Ross Benjamin is your ticket to that winning formula.
Boston (Porcello) @ Tampa Bay (Snell) 7;10 PM ET
Game# 913-914
Play On: Tampa Bay +120
Former American League Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello once again has an impressive performance line in 2018. However, that’s not been the case in his last 3 starts with Porcello posting a lofty 6.75 ERA and 1.68 WHIP.
Boston has some intriguing splits that work against them in today’s matchup with Tampa Bay. The Red Sox will be facing Tampa Bay’s lefty starter Blake Snell tonight. They’ve gone an outstanding 29-10 versus right-handed starting pitchers this season but are just 6-11 when facing lefties. Furthermore, Snell has an impressive 1.04 WHIP in 10 starts this season. Boston is a dismal 6-11 in 2018 when facing an American League starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or less. Putting that record into perspective, the Red Sox are 28-4 in the rest of their games in 2018.
Speaking of Blake Snell, he’s compiled a brilliant 1.07 ERA and 0.83 WHIP this year during 4 home starts. Snell has made 2 starts against Boston in 2018 while collecting a terrific 1.38 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in those pair of outings. The Rays bullpen has been very good over their previous 7 games in gathering a combined 2.70 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Bet on Tampa Bay as a money line underdog for my Thursday 5/24 free pick.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Franco

May 24 '18, 6:10 PM in 22m
MLB | HOU vs CLE
Play on: UNDER 8 +103

Astros/Indians under 8
The Houston Astros attempt to extend a pair of winning streaks when they begin their seven-game road trip Thursday with the opener of a four-game series against the Cleveland Indians. Houston, which has won two straight away from home, topped San Francisco 4-1 on Wednesday for its third consecutive overall victory.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Astros RH Charlie Morton (6-0, 1.94 ERA) vs. Indians RH Mike Clevinger (3-1, 2.87)
Morton looks to top Cleveland for the second time in seven days after allowing one run and four hits over seven innings of a home victory over the Indians on Friday. The 34-year-old native of New Jersey has registered 70 strikeouts while issuing only 18 walks in 55 2/3 frames this season and has yielded more than two runs only twice in his nine turns. Morton's win last time out improved him to 1-2 with a 3.93 ERA in three career starts against Cleveland.
Clevinger suffered his first loss of the season opposite Morton on Friday as he surrendered three runs on eight hits and four walks in 6 1/3 innings. The 27-year-old Floridian has issued four free passes in two of his last three turns - both on the road - after handing out a total of 10 over his first six outings this year. Clevinger has made three career starts against the Astros, going 1-2 with a 2.40 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 15 frames.
The Astros have allowed 126 runs over their first 50 games, the lowest total in the major leagues in that span since 1920.
Under is 6-1 in Mortons last 7 starts with 5 days of rest. Under is 12-5-1 in Clevingers last 18 home starts. Under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings in Cleveland.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach

May 24 '18, 9:05 PM in 3h
NBA | Warriors vs Rockets
Play on: Rockets +1 -110 at BetPhoenix

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Thursday Free Pick Houston Rockets (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - This line is right around a pick'em but in some shops (as of early game day morning) the Rockets are as much as a 1.5 point favorite. That is noteworthy as the Warriors are an ugly 2-6 SU/ATS this season as an underdog. Also, Golden State is only 7-8 SU/ATS their last 15 road games. Both teams shot poorly in Game 4 but the Warriors are only 2-3 ATS the last 5 times they were off of a game where they were held under 41.9% from the field. As for the Rockets, since the calendar hit 2018 they have been held under 41.4% from the field 9 times and have responded by going 6-3 ATS in their next game. The "kicker" to that is a 4-1 ATS mark when that game is at home and that is the case here. Look for Houston to shoot much better on their home floor and respond with a resounding win here in Game 5 to take a stranglehold on this series. The Warriors continue to be over-rated by the markets and are actually a pedestrian 19-17 SU (and ugly 11-25 ATS!) their last 36 games against teams with a winning record. The Rockets are 33-8 SU their last 41 games versus teams with a winning record and are 40-9 SU on their home floor. Couple that with the fact that there are some shops that have a +1 on the home team as of very early this morning and you have even better value on the home team in this one! Free Pick HOUSTON

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Pro Computer Gambler

May 24 '18, 9:05 PM in 3h
NBA | Warriors vs Rockets
Play on: UNDER 219½ -103

NBA SYSTEM OF THE DAY: The Warriors are 3-10-3 OU (-10.94 ppg) since Mar 19, 2016 as a dog
62% of the public like the Over. Raw numbers have this game pegged at 107-103 for the Rockets.
To get over 210 for +300 odds is incredible value here. Take it!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy

May 24 '18, 6:10 PM in 22m
MLB | Astros vs Indians
Play on: Astros -125 at pinnacle

Thursday MLB Free play. My selection is on Houston over Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Thursday.
The Astros took two of three games from the Indians at home last weekend. The Tribe followed up that series by sweeping a two-game set with the Cubs at Wrigley Field. While I do think the Indians will get back at the Astros over the course of the weekend, I don't think it happens in the series opener on Thursday.
Charlie Morton will take the ball for Houston. He continues to be one of the most underrated and undervalued starters in baseball. Morton has gone a perfect 6-0 with a sub-2.00 ERA this season and is coming off another outstanding effort against these same Indians last week. Note that Morton has worked at least seven innings in three of his last four starts but has needed to throw over 100 pitches only twice over that stretch.
Mike Clevinger has certainly pitched well for the Indians this season as well but it's worth noting that he has needed to throw at least 105 pitches in each of his last four starts. Note that the Tribe are just 1-4 over his last five outings. That includes a 1-2 mark here at home.

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John Martin

May 24 '18, 8:05 PM in 2h
MLB | KC vs TEX
Play on: UNDER 10 -103

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Royals/Rangers UNDER 10
We have a very high total here between the Kansas City Royals and Texas Rangers Thursday. It’s too high and should not be double-digits when these are two of the worst offensive teams in the American League. The Royals average just 3.9 runs/game this season and 3.7 runs/game against right-handed starters. The Rangers average only 4.2 runs/game this year and hit .227 as a team. Danny Duffy has a 3.25 ERA in six previous starts against the Rangers. Austin Bibens-Dirkx will have the element of surprise as he has never faced the Royals, and he’ll be making his season debut tonight. The UNDER is 32-14-5 in the last 51 meetings, including 12-3-3 in the last 18 meetings in Texas. Give me the UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Lundin

May 24 '18, 7:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Red Sox vs Rays
Play on: Rays +1½ -132 at pinnacle

MLB FREE PICK FROM MIKE LUNDIN
The Tampa Bay Rays have dropped three straight while the Boston Red Sox have won four straight (including the first two of this series) but I think the value is on the home team here at Tropicana Field Thursday night. Note that Rays are 6-2 in their last eight games after losing the first two games of a series.
Tampa Bay hands the ball to Blake Snell (5-3, 3.07 ERA) who held Boston scoreless through 5 2/3 innings in March and limited them to two runs through 7 1/3 frames in April for a season ERA of 1.38 against the Red Sox. Rays are 8-2 in Snell's last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record, and the 34-15 Red Sox sure fits into that category.
Rick Porcello (6-1, 3.39 ERA) will take the ball for the visitors. He is 2-0 in three starts against the Rays on the season behind a 3.10 ERA, but I have a feeling the Rays' bats will come alive here after scoring just a total of five runs through their last three games.
Free pick on Tampa Bay Rays +1.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Preview and Predictions 05-25-2018

24th May 2018 by Gracenote
the boston celtics are one win away from reaching the nba finals for the first time since 2010 when they visit the cleveland cavaliers on friday. the celtics possess a 3-2 lead in the eastern conference finals but are just 1-6 on the road this postseason, including two setbacks in cleveland.

cavaliers forward lebron james could be playing in his final game in cleveland before his expected dive into free agency but he is currently focused on earning one more trip to boston. "we're looking forward to having an opportunity to force a game 7," james told reporters after his squad's 96-83 loss in wednesday's game 5. "it's up to us to see if we can come back here for one more." boston continues to persevere behind its young roster but it will have to step up if it is to close the series on the cavaliers' home floor. "now we have a big challenge to go on the road," boston veteran big man al horford told reporters. "we're going to have to play a great game come friday because they're tough at home. at least in our series, they've had their way."
tv: 8:30 p.m. et, espn
about the celtics: small forward jayson tatum scored 24 points in game 5 for his ninth 20-point outing of the postseason. the 20-year-old is putting together one of the best scoring playoff runs by a rookie in nba history with 312 points and he trails only elgin baylor (331), alvan adams (341) and kareem abdul-jabbar (352). "it's just been a lot of fun," tatum told reporters. "i've just been enjoying it, the level of play, the atmosphere. the playoffs bring the best out of people and out of players, and hopefully we keep it going. ... we're one win away from going to the finals. "
about the cavaliers: james had 26 points, 10 rebounds and five assists while going 11-of-22 shooting in game 5 and he downplayed interrogating questions about his level of fatigue. "i had my moments, but i think everybody at this point is tired, worn down whatever the case may be," james told reporters. "i was still trying to make plays, put our team in position to win." james topped 40 points twice in this series and six times in the postseason and has at times single-handedly kept his team afloat.
buzzer beaters

1. boston pg marcus smart had a series-best 13 points on 5-of-9 shooting in game 5 after just 11-of-38 shooting over the first four contests.

2. cleveland sg jr smith is averaging just 5.2 points on 9-of-39 shooting in the series.

3. horford had 15 points and 12 rebounds in game 5 for his second double-double of the series and seventh of the postseason.

prediction: cavaliers 116, celtics 95