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NBA RECORD regular season 62-55 (+4.31 UNITS)
THE Warriors turned it up a notch on their home court as they took a 2-1 series lead heading into Game 4 at Oracle Arena.
There’s no reason to believe they don’t dish up more of the same, especially when you consider how easily they were able to score on this Rockets defence.
A lot of people have pointed out that Houston missed some open looks that they would normally knock down – that’s not the take away you should have from Game 3!
What you should be noting is that the Warriors were able to shoot at over 50% from the field (in line with their season average at home) and did so in a variety of different ways.
More worrying for Huston was that Steph Curry was allowed to find his groove in the second half and anyone that follows basketball knows that there’s few things in the league more dangerous than a shooter that has his confidence back.
Steve Kerr did a terrific job of making the necessary adjustments in order to exploit this Houston defence, and by saying that what we mean is Kerr did a great job of getting his scorers matched up on James Harden wherever possible.
For all the good he does on offence there’s no denying that Harden is a passenger on defence and the Warriors will again look to exploit that.
Whether it’s Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant or any of their second unit, the message will be to go at Harden early and aggressively.
What this team does better than any other however is putting the result beyond doubt coming out of half time.
The Warriors average 30.2 points per game in the third quarter on the season, while allowing just 25.3 points in the same period on their home court. This was again evident in Game 3. The Warriors came out of half time firing – particularly Curry – as they took the this quarter 34-24.
It’s also what happened in their Game 1 win. The Warriors came out and took the third 31-24 en route to a 119-106 win.
Given we have Golden State winning again it’s only right we follow this trend, especially when the odds are so generous and the number is so appealing in comparison to the -8.5 game line.
Tip: 3rd Quarter: Golden State Warriors -2.5 @ $1.95 (Unibet)
Player props
Eric Gordon remains a playoff mystery for the Houston Rockets, and it’s becoming a big concern.
The sixth man of the year candidate for large parts of the regular season went missing in the team’s series against Utah and has only shown up once so far this series.
That Game 2 win saw a huge contribution from all of Houston’s role players, and it remains the only game in which Gordon has gone Over this total in his last five games.
In fact, if you take away that Game 2 outburst, Gordon has only averaged 2.0 made three-pointers per game since the start of the Conference semi-finals.
The Warriors made it known that they weren’t going to let Houston find the open man and forced them into ISO-ball situations which makes scoring on the perimeter almost impossible.
We’re projecting another struggle for Houston’s role players, including Gordon, and feel the total is still sitting generously as a result. If the Warriors are going to establish their defence again then we expect opportunities to be few and far between for Gordon on the perimeter.
Once you take that away from him this total becomes very tough to clear.
Tip: Eric Gordon u/15.5 points @$ 1.83 (Sportsbet)
NBA RECORD regular season 62-55 (+4.31 UNITS)
THE Warriors turned it up a notch on their home court as they took a 2-1 series lead heading into Game 4 at Oracle Arena.
There’s no reason to believe they don’t dish up more of the same, especially when you consider how easily they were able to score on this Rockets defence.
A lot of people have pointed out that Houston missed some open looks that they would normally knock down – that’s not the take away you should have from Game 3!
What you should be noting is that the Warriors were able to shoot at over 50% from the field (in line with their season average at home) and did so in a variety of different ways.
More worrying for Huston was that Steph Curry was allowed to find his groove in the second half and anyone that follows basketball knows that there’s few things in the league more dangerous than a shooter that has his confidence back.
Steve Kerr did a terrific job of making the necessary adjustments in order to exploit this Houston defence, and by saying that what we mean is Kerr did a great job of getting his scorers matched up on James Harden wherever possible.
For all the good he does on offence there’s no denying that Harden is a passenger on defence and the Warriors will again look to exploit that.
Whether it’s Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant or any of their second unit, the message will be to go at Harden early and aggressively.
What this team does better than any other however is putting the result beyond doubt coming out of half time.
The Warriors average 30.2 points per game in the third quarter on the season, while allowing just 25.3 points in the same period on their home court. This was again evident in Game 3. The Warriors came out of half time firing – particularly Curry – as they took the this quarter 34-24.
It’s also what happened in their Game 1 win. The Warriors came out and took the third 31-24 en route to a 119-106 win.
Given we have Golden State winning again it’s only right we follow this trend, especially when the odds are so generous and the number is so appealing in comparison to the -8.5 game line.
Tip: 3rd Quarter: Golden State Warriors -2.5 @ $1.95 (Unibet)
Player props
Eric Gordon remains a playoff mystery for the Houston Rockets, and it’s becoming a big concern.
The sixth man of the year candidate for large parts of the regular season went missing in the team’s series against Utah and has only shown up once so far this series.
That Game 2 win saw a huge contribution from all of Houston’s role players, and it remains the only game in which Gordon has gone Over this total in his last five games.
In fact, if you take away that Game 2 outburst, Gordon has only averaged 2.0 made three-pointers per game since the start of the Conference semi-finals.
The Warriors made it known that they weren’t going to let Houston find the open man and forced them into ISO-ball situations which makes scoring on the perimeter almost impossible.
We’re projecting another struggle for Houston’s role players, including Gordon, and feel the total is still sitting generously as a result. If the Warriors are going to establish their defence again then we expect opportunities to be few and far between for Gordon on the perimeter.
Once you take that away from him this total becomes very tough to clear.
Tip: Eric Gordon u/15.5 points @$ 1.83 (Sportsbet)
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