Service Plays Monday 6/25/18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CleInsidersports

MLB
Royals ML (+165)
Orioles +1.5 (-145)
Phillies +1.5 (-120)
Blue Jays +1.5 (-100)
Cubs/Dodgers UNDER 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers


Game (917) Washington Nationals at (918) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Jun 25 2018 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -115

5% Big Ticket: Take Tampa Bay (#918)
This is a miserable spot for the Nationals, coming off an intense, wild come-from behind victory on Sunday Night baseball. Off the late night finish, Washington had to deal with post-game travel. Their struggling bullpen is completely spent – the Nats starters have lasted through the sixth inning only twice in the last eight days, without a day off.
Gio Gonzalez has struggled in each of his last three starts; having issues with both walks and home runs; bad news for any hurler. And despite last night’s offensive outburst, this Nationals squad isn’t hitting with any consistency, held to three runs or less in 7 of their last 13 overall. There’s a reason this team is just 8-15 this season against opposing southpaws.
The Nats off a win? How about 1-7 in their last eight tries, a team that has, quite simply, been unable to string wins together in recent weeks.
Tampa’s Blake Snell is pitching at an ace level. He’s been particularly dominant at home, with an 0.96 ERA in six previous starts here at the Trop. It’s not just at home – Snell has allowed one run or less in five of his last six trips to the hill. Tampa is in excellent current form, off a weekend sweep over the Yankees. In this price range & this spot, the Rays are most assuredly worthy of a step-up sized wager this evening! Big Ticket: Take the Rays.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

7:10 PM ET -- MLB
[901] Pittsburgh Pirates at [968] New York Mets
List Taillon & Lugo

UNDER 7.5 (-110)

Bet Size = 4%

My Baseball Totals System is a combination of relevant statistical data, history involving similar games, and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the wager is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Projected Runs Scored = 6

DB's TAKE: Love the low BB% of both Taillon (6.4%) and Lugo (3.9%). Also like Taillon's 3.61 xFIP, but LOVE Lugo's 2.41 xFIP. Lugo has been a brick wall at home (0.90 ERA, 0.73 WHIP). Lugo got roughed up in his last two starts, but they were on the road at Colorado and Arizona. I expect a big bounce-back at home tonight. I also like that no hitter on either side has ever faced tonight's opposing starter. That gives both guys a nice early-game edge. Both of Lugo's home starts went Under, and five of Taillon's six road starts have also gone Under. The Mets have averaged just 3.25 runs in their home night games against righties, with the Under going 11-5 in those 16 games (including the last four and 8 of the last 9). Pittsburgh is averaging a pathetic 1.5 runs over its last nine games. The Pirates bullpen is in very good current form. The Mets' pen is my only concern.

7:10 PM ET -- MLB
[917] Washington Nationals at [918] Tampa Bay Rays
List Gonzalez & Snell

UNDER 7 (+102)

Bet Size = 5%

My Baseball Totals System is a combination of relevant statistical data, history involving similar games, and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the wager is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Projected Runs Scored = 5

DB's TAKE: Both starters have sub-4 xFIPs (Gonzalez = 3.87, Snell = 3.68). Both offenses have struggled in this specific situation. Washington has averaged 3.1 runs in its ten road night games against lefties, while Tampa Bay has averaged just 2.8 runs in its ten home night games against southpaws. The Under was 8-2 in those games for the Nationals (including seven straight), and 7-2-1 for the Rays (including six straight). Gonzalez has been solid on the road, and Snell has been almost invincible at home (0.96 ERA). Rays hitters own a .200 average and .258 wOBA against Gonzalez. Snell has allowed one earned run or less in five of his last six starts. Mark Reynolds' two at-bats are the only experience the Nats have against Snell, which gives the Rays lefty a nice early-game edge. The Nationals bullpen has been solid. The Rays' pen is in good current form and performs very well at home. The Under is 20-5 in Wahsington's last 25 interleague games, including 10-3 on the road. That also includes 7-1 in Gio's last eight interleague starts. The Under is also 8-1-1 in the Rays' last ten home games versus a lefty.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Exodus to Black

MLB

orioles+125

yanks-135

Nats+110

Reds+135

Padres+150

[KTWSports]

Worlds Worst Picker

Pirates
Nats

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

3* TAMPA BAY
2* Arizona

Added
2* TB/WASH Over
1* Baltimore
1* San Diego
1* St. Louis

[Can'tPickAWinner]

OVO Sports

Diamondbacks -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Jordon

Double Your Wager

2000♦

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES in today's Interleague clash against the New York Yankees, and I'm not listing pitchers in this game. As of 10:30 pm pacific on Sunday, the number I'm seeing on this game is Phillies +130.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tiger from Philly

nym under 7.5
arz -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Phillygodfather

Phillies U8.5
NY Yankees -140
Cubs +1.5 runs
Nationals +105
Rays under 4 first 5inn.