Thursday 7-5-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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MLB

Thursday, July 5

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MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, July 5

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MIAMI (36 - 52) at WASHINGTON (42 - 43) - 7:05 PM
ELIESER HERNANDEZ (R) vs. JEREMY HELLICKSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 5-21 (-16.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
HELLICKSON is 9-2 (+8.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WASHINGTON is 42-43 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 19-23 (-17.0 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
WASHINGTON is 19-23 (-11.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against MIAMI this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

ELIESER HERNANDEZ vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
HERNANDEZ is 0-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 1.200.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

JEREMY HELLICKSON vs. MIAMI since 1997
HELLICKSON is 4-3 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 2.88 and a WHIP of 1.053.
His team's record is 9-3 (+7.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-10. (-10.2 units)

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ATLANTA (49 - 36) at MILWAUKEE (51 - 35) - 8:10 PM
MAX FRIED (L) vs. JHOULYS CHACIN (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MAX FRIED vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
No recent starts.

JHOULYS CHACIN vs. ATLANTA since 1997
CHACIN is 1-4 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 4.22 and a WHIP of 1.719.
His team's record is 1-5 (-4.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-3. (-0.3 units)

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SAN DIEGO (37 - 51) at ARIZONA (48 - 39) - 9:40 PM
ERIC LAUER (L) vs. SHELBY MILLER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 48-39 (+7.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 36-18 (+13.9 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 21-7 (+14.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 66-47 (+17.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 35-24 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ARIZONA is 43-30 (+13.4 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 29-16 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
SAN DIEGO is 132-154 (+21.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 108-127 (+17.4 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 33-28 (+16.1 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 890-793 (-95.7 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
ARIZONA is 18-34 (-17.7 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 3 seasons.
MILLER is 8-15 (-13.3 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record)
MILLER is 37-53 (-22.0 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-1 (+0.8 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

ERIC LAUER vs. ARIZONA since 1997
No recent starts.

SHELBY MILLER vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
MILLER is 2-2 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 4.42 and a WHIP of 1.190.
His team's record is 2-5 (-4.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-6. (-6.0 units)

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ST LOUIS (44 - 41) at SAN FRANCISCO (45 - 43) - 10:15 PM
LUKE WEAVER (R) vs. JOHNNY CUETO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 127-120 (-16.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 97-93 (-14.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 45-43 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 26-14 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 28-25 (+6.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 839-853 (+35.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
CUETO is 41-22 (+16.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
CUETO is 29-12 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
CUETO is 74-58 (+20.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 75-57 (+19.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 124-150 (-38.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

LUKE WEAVER vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
WEAVER is 1-1 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 1.86 and a WHIP of 1.344.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.1 units)

JOHNNY CUETO vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
CUETO is 7-8 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.80 and a WHIP of 1.223.
His team's record is 11-12 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-14. (-6.7 units)

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TEXAS (38 - 49) at DETROIT (38 - 50) - 7:10 PM
YOVANI GALLARDO (R) vs. MATT BOYD (L)
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS is 211-203 (+22.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 96-78 (+27.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 98-105 (+21.4 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 29-24 (+14.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 157-139 (+31.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 52-96 (-35.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 68-116 (-38.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 405-354 (-71.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 2-1 (+0.4 Units) against DETROIT this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

YOVANI GALLARDO vs. DETROIT since 1997
GALLARDO is 2-1 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 2.45 and a WHIP of 1.528.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-3. (-3.1 units)

MATT BOYD vs. TEXAS since 1997
BOYD is 1-4 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 5.53 and a WHIP of 1.446.
His team's record is 1-4 (-3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-0. (+5.1 units)

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CHI WHITE SOX (30 - 56) at HOUSTON (57 - 31) - 8:10 PM
CARLOS RODON (L) vs. JUSTIN VERLANDER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 82-70 (-29.9 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 7-10 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters this season.
VERLANDER is 1-6 (-13.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 9-15 (-14.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

CARLOS RODON vs. HOUSTON since 1997
RODON is 1-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 1.71 and a WHIP of 1.139.
His team's record is 3-1 (+3.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.2 units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
VERLANDER is 21-13 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 3.87 and a WHIP of 1.206.
His team's record is 26-17 (+1.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 20-21. (-2.6 units)

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BALTIMORE (24 - 61) at MINNESOTA (35 - 48) - 8:10 PM
ANDREW CASHNER (R) vs. AARON SLEGERS (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-1 (+1.1 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.1 Units)

ANDREW CASHNER vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
CASHNER is 0-2 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 2.111.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

AARON SLEGERS vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
No recent starts.

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LA ANGELS (44 - 43) at SEATTLE (55 - 32) - 10:10 PM
JAIME BARRIA (R) vs. MARCO GONZALES (L)
Top Trends for this game.
LA ANGELS are 15-23 (-12.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
LA ANGELS are 6-15 (-12.7 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
LA ANGELS are 9-21 (-11.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SEATTLE is 55-32 (+21.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SEATTLE is 27-18 (+6.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
SEATTLE is 17-7 (+10.4 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
SEATTLE is 29-15 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
SEATTLE is 39-16 (+21.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SEATTLE is 39-20 (+20.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
SEATTLE is 20-10 (+9.8 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
LA ANGELS are 569-543 (+44.3 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
SEATTLE is 170-211 (-57.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 5-3 (+2.1 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.8 Units)

JAIME BARRIA vs. SEATTLE since 1997
BARRIA is 0-1 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 1.600.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

MARCO GONZALES vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
GONZALES is 0-0 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 4.66 and a WHIP of 1.552.
His team's record is 2-2 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-0. (+4.0 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday's Diamond Notes
Kevin Rogers

Hottest team: Brewers (6-3 last nine)

The hottest squad in the NL Central currently is the Cubs, who have won six consecutive games and sit one game out of first place. However, Chicago is off on Thursday as the top team in the division, Milwaukee, is fresh off a three-game home sweep of Minnesota. The Brewers own the second-most home victories in the National League with 27, while becoming the first team to reach the 50-win plateau in the NL (although four teams in the AL have won at least 55).

Milwaukee welcomes in Atlanta in a battle of first-place squads on Thursday as the Braves have dropped two straight. Jhoulys Chacin takes the mound in the series opener, as Milwaukee went through a stretch from late April through mid-June posting an impressive 10-1 mark when the right-hander took the mound. However, the Brewers have lost each of Chacin’s last three starts, in spite of him giving up one earned run in two of those outings.

Coldest team: Nationals (2-10 last 12)

Things are quickly unraveling for the defending NL East champions as Washington suffered a three-game home sweep at the hands of Boston. The offense is nowhere to be found as the Nationals have scored 15 runs in their last eight losses, while posting a 17-spot in a 10-run victory at Philadelphia last Friday. Not only has Washington slipped below the .500 mark, but the Nationals are currently seven games behind the Braves for first place in the division.

The Nationals hope to get on track as the Marlins visit D.C. for the weekend. Washington swept Miami in late May and has captured 11 straight matchups against its division rival since August 2017. Veteran Jeremy Hellickson heads to the hill tonight as the Nationals have put together an 8-1 mark to the UNDER in his last nine starts, while Washington is winless in his last two appearances.

Hottest pitcher: Yovani Gallardo, Rangers (2-0, 9.00 ERA)

From an ERA standpoint, this may not make a lot of sense why Gallardo is listed in this category. However, since joining Texas from Cincinnati in June, the Rangers have won all three of the right-hander’s starts since entering the rotation. The run support for Gallardo has been extremely helpful, as the Rangers 11 runs a game in this stretch, while the veteran is fresh off a seven-strikeout performance in a blowout win over the White Sox. Gallardo squares off with a struggling Tigers’ squad on Thursday, as Detroit has dropped 13 of its last 15 games.

Coldest pitcher: Justin Verlander, Astros (9-4, 2.12 ERA)

Justin Verlander, the former MVP and Cy Young winner owning a miniscule ERA is in this category? This is true as Verlander, who owned a 1.60 ERA after a 2-1 home defeat to the Rays on June 19, has been tagged for 16 hits and nine earned runs in his last two outings. Houston has failed to pick up a victory in Verlander’s last three trips to the mound, which has occurred twice this season. The good news is after his first three-start winless streak in May, Verlander turned in complete-game shutout over the Angels. Verlander is listed as a nearly -300 favorite in Thursday’s series opener against the White Sox, who Houston outscored, 27-2 in a three-game sweep in Chicago back in April.

Biggest OVER run: White Sox (12-3 last 15)

Chicago continues its 10-game road trip after dropping two of three at Cincinnati in spite of holding the lead in both losses. The Sox head down to Houston as their pitching staff has yielded at least five runs in each of the first six games of this trip. The offense has been terrific in the two road wins by scoring 10 and 12 runs, but has been limited to fewer than four runs in all four defeats. The task won’t be easy tonight against Houston’s Justin Verlander, while Sox starter Carlos Rodon has seen the OVER cash in each of his last three starts.

Biggest UNDER run: Tigers (7-1 last eight)

Detroit’s offense has disappeared of late by scoring three runs or less in seven of the past eight contests, while posting a total of five runs in a pair of losses in Chicago to the Cubs. The pitching hasn’t been terrible recently, as Detroit allowed a total of 11 runs in a four-game split at Toronto last weekend. But the lack of offense firepower has caught up with them since sitting at 36-37 on Father’s Day. The Tigers return to Comerica Park to host the Rangers for a four-game set, as Matthew Boyd heads to the mound in the opener. Boyd is winless in his last three outings, while giving up 14 runs in this stretch, as Detroit has hit the OVER in two of his past three home starts.

Matchup to watch: Cardinals vs. Giants

Two teams that have plenty of playoff experience this decade are seeking consistency as they hook up at AT&T Park this weekend. San Francisco swept Arizona last weekend, but its offense disappeared as it was swept by Colorado, while plating a total of three runs. The Cardinals dropped a three-game set at home to the Braves last weekend, but captured two of three at Arizona, including Wednesday’s 8-4 triumph.

Johnny Cueto makes his first start for the Giants since getting sidelined in April due to an elbow sprain. Cueto put together terrific numbers through his first five outings by posting a 3-0 record and 0.84 ERA, while tossing scoreless efforts against the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Angels. In last season’s lone start against the Cardinals, Cueto was staked to a 5-2 lead before St. Louis rallied for an 11-6 win as he scattered four hits and two runs in 5.1 innings of work.

Luke Weaver counters for the Cardinals, as the right-hander has actually been more productive on the road than at home. St. Louis has won six of Weaver’s eight away outings, compared to a 2-6 mark at Busch Stadium. Weaver was knocked around in his last start against Atlanta by giving up 10 hits and eight runs in 4.2 innings of an 11-4 loss. In Weaver’s past three away starts, the Cardinals’ offense has scored at least seven runs as St. Louis put together a 3-0 mark in those games.

Betcha didn’t know: This PSA can’t be put out enough regarding the Padres. San Diego has compiled a remarkable 5-23 record in series openers this season as the Padres travel to Arizona to face the Diamondbacks. The Padres have dropped eight straight Game 1’s of a series, but did capture the series opener at Chase Field back in April, for what it’s worth.

Biggest public favorite: Astros (-300) vs. White Sox

Biggest public underdog: Rangers (+105) at Tigers

Biggest line move: Diamondbacks (-139 to -148) vs. Padres

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Thursday, July 5


STREAKING AND SLUMPING STARTING PITCHERS

Streaking: Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants (3-0, 0.84 ERA, $353)

He's back! Okay, so Cueto might not fit the traditional paradigm of the streaking pitcher, but he was en fuego through his first five starts before suffering a right elbow sprain that has sidelined him since late April. Cueto ranks 36th in starter value despite making just a handful of starts, with the Giants winning four of those five outings.

We generally avoid starters in their first start following a lengthy injury, but getting him at -135 at home against a St. Louis team hitting just .237 on the road is too good to pass up. He's a highly recommended play Thursday.

Slumping: Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers (4-6, 4.18 ERA, $308)

Oh, Matt. You got off to such a good start! But alas, things have not gone so well of late, with Boyd having surrendered 14 runs in 13 innings over his previous three starts; not surprisingly, the Tigers lost all three. Boyd surrendered a home run in all three games and failed to reach the fifth inning in two of them; he remains in the black for the year, but he's fading fast.

On the flip side, all three of those losses came on the road, where Boyd is 1-5 with a 5.55 ERA. A return to Comerica Park – where Boyd is 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA – might be just what he needs. Consider a flier on Boyd at -111 against visiting Texas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn

Free Play: Free San Diego W/Lauer +140 Over Arizona

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Free Selection from Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, July 5, 2018



7/05 07:15 PM PT / 10:15 PM ET

MLB (907) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS VS (908) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Take: OVER

Reason: Your free play for Thursday, July 5, 2018 is in the MLB scheduled contest between the St Louis Cardinals and the San Francisco Giants. Your free play is on the GIANTS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Allen Sports

Thursday's Free Selection is on the Arizona DBacks

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY: Take MIAMI/WASHINGTON OVER the total of 9 runs

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Totals4U

Thursday's Free Selection: Hamilton/Saskatchewan over 51

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John Anthony Sports

Thursday's Free Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks - 150

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Atlantic Sports

Thursday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Washington - 180

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#1 Sports

Thursday's Free Selection: Hamilton Tiger-Cats - 7

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Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Thursday Selection Is

Texas w/Gallardo +103

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Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Thursday: Take TEXAS/DETROIT UNDER the total of 9½ runs

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Huddle Up Sports

Free Play: Miami/Washington over 9