Monday 7-9-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Red Dog Sports

Jul 09 '18, 7:10 PM in 6h
MLB | Brewers vs Marlins
Play on: Marlins +130 at MyBookie

Miami +130
Miami has played decently at home. Nice value against Milwaukee who has a long flight to south Florida.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ross Benjamin

Jul 09 '18, 10:10 PM in 9h
MLB | Dodgers vs Padres
Play on: Dodgers -1½ -146 at betonline

LA Dodgers (Kershaw) @ San Diego (Perdomo) 10:10 PM ET
Game# 907-908
Play On: LA Dodgers -1.5 (-146)
I ordinarily don’t like laying this much juice or going with a wager that public betting is heavily in favor of. Nevertheless, I’m going to make an exception in this instance because the statistical data is way too alluring to pass on. Since 2016, Clayton Kershaw is 5-0 against San Diego while posting a dominating 0.50 ERA during those outing. The Dodgers bullpen has compiled an exceptional 2.14 ERA and 0.91 WHIP thru their previous 7 games. During that identical 7-game stretch, Los Angeles has averaged 6.4 runs scored per outing and amassed a terrific .859 OPS. The Dodgers have seen each of its last 6 wins come by 2 runs or more.
Since 2016, San Diego’s Luis Perdomo has compiled an awful 8.31 ERA in 5 starts against the Dodgers. The Padres are an abysmal 5-18 this year as a money line home underdog of +100 or greater and were outscored by a decisive average of 3.3 runs per game. San Diego is coming off a 4-3 win at Arizona on Sunday. They’ve gone 0-6 in their last 6 following a win and lost by 2 runs or more on 5 of those occasions. Bet on the LA Dodgers as a run line favorite for my Monday 7/9 MLB free pick of the day.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Franco

Jul 09 '18, 7:10 PM in 6h
MLB | Rangers vs Red Sox
Play on: Rangers +190 at MyBookie

Rangers
The Boston Red Sox own the best record in baseball and just finished off a nine-game road trip with six consecutive victories. The Red Sox will play their final seven games before the All-Star break at home, beginning when the Texas Rangers visit for the opener of a three-game series on Monday.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Rangers LH Mike Minor (6-4, 4.63 ERA) vs. Red Sox LH Eduardo Rodriguez (10-3, 3.84)

Minor allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last five starts and is 2-0 in that span. The Vanderbilt product was trying to make it three straight wins on Wednesday but had to settle for a no-decision against Houston after allowing three earned runs on seven hits and three walks in six innings. Minor earned a win at home over Boston on May 3, when he yielded three runs and seven hits in six frames.

Rodriguez turned in one of his best outings of the season on Wednesday, scattering three hits across six scoreless innings and striking out six to earn a win at Washington. The Venezuela native lost his previous two starts while serving up a total of 10 runs - nine earned - and 14 hits in 10 innings against Seattle and the New York Yankees. Rodriguez struck out a season-high 10 at Texas on May 5 but was charged with five runs in six innings and did not factor in the decision.
Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach

Jul 09 '18, 4:05 PM in 3h
MLB | NYY vs BAL
Play on: OVER 9½ +103

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Monday Free Pick OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 4:05 ET (Game 1 of double header) - The Yankees CC Sabathia has great numbers recently and that helped drive this total down to a 9.5 after it opened up at a 10. The fact is that Sabathia would certainly rather be pitching somewhere else other than Camden Yards! In his last 3 starts versus the Orioles, Sabathia has a 9.00 ERA and he has allowed 8 homers in the 15 innings spanning those 3 starts! I did not mis-type there...Sabathia has allowed a home run, on average, every other inning in his last 3 starts versus the Orioles! The only good news for Yankees fans here is that their lineup should pound Jimmy Yacabonis. The Baltimore right-hander has an 8.53 ERA and has been pounded at a .346 clip in his 3 MLB appearances this season. Though he has pitched well in the minors, he has struggled at the MLB level. His numbers were better in 2017 in the majors but still he struggled and was hit hard by the Yankees and he also got hit hard by them this season too. This is a value spot because a lot of the "trending" for these teams points toward the under here and yet you can why, per the above, this game absolutely should fly over the total as both starters get crushed. Free Pick OVER the total in Baltimore (Game 1 of double header)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Jul 09 '18, 10:15 PM in 9h
MLB | Cubs vs Giants
Play on: Cubs -106 at betonline

My free play is on the Chi Cubs at 10:15 ET. The Cubs begin a six-game West Coast trip tonight in San Francisco against the Giants, coming off a 7-1 homestand. The Cubs have won nine of their last 11 contests overall to move a season-high 15 games above .500 but they still trail the Milwaukee Brewers by 1 1/2 games in the NL Central. Each of surging Chicago's last nine victories have been of the comeback variety (the team is tied for the major-league lead with 28 such wins) and after the Giants the Cubs will play the Padres in San Diego, leading into the All-Star break. As for the 47-45 Giants, they hit just .167 as a team and scored a total of 10 runs over a six-game stretch in which they were only 1-5, before erupting for 17 hits in a 13-8 victory over visiting St. Louis on Sunday. The Giants welcome the Cubs to AT&T Park in fourth-place in the NL West but they are also just 3 1/2 games back of the first-place Diamondbacks.
Kyle Hendricks (5-8, 4.27 ERA) will get the nod for Chicago and he comes in having lost five of his last six decisions, as well as posting a 6.29 ERA over his last seven starts. Hendricks was 16-8 (2.13 ERA) when the Cubs won the World Series in 2016 but he checks in just 12-13 overall, since. In fact, the Cubs are not only just 6-11 his Hendricks' 2018 starts but his moneyline mark of minus-$1251 is the worst of any starter this season (about 270 different starters). Hendricks is 3-2 with a 3.06 ERA in six career starts versus San Francisco.
San Francisco lefty Andrew Suarez (3-5, 3.92 ERA) will get the ball opposite Hendricks and in contrast, Suarez has posted a 2.10 ERA over his last five starts, allowing fewer than three runs in each, outing. However, has recorded only one win over that stretch (Giants are 2-3). A prime example was his most recent start, when the rookie struck out six and gave up just one run over seven innings last Wednesday at Colorado, but wound up on the wrong end of a 1-0 decision. Suarez will be facing the Cubs for the first time.
As noted above, Suarez has pitched better than his record and it is notable that he has been able to retain his spot in the starting rotation despite the fact the Giants welcomed back Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija from the DL last week. However, why should we anticipate that his luck will change. He owns a decent 3.13 home ERA plus an excellent 0.96 home WHIP but in six starts, owns just one win (team is 2-4). Yes, Hendricks is "off his game" but he's proven to be a quality starter and his team is red-hot. Cubs Win! Cubs Win!
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

Jul 09 '18, 7:10 PM in 6h
MLB | Reds vs Indians
Play on: Indians -171 at betonline

When you're on a pitching staff that has Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer it's easy to get overlooked. That's the situation righthander Mike Clevinger is in. I find Clevinger to be underrated. He's 7-3 with a 3.11 ERA. Clevinger is at his best against weak road teams. So I'm not adverse to stepping out more than normal and laying this price with Cleveland in a pitching matchup of Clevinger versus Anthony DeSclafani. The Indians are in the superpower class of the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros when playing at home. Cleveland is 28-15 at Progressive Field this season. The Indians have been dominant when taking on below .500 road clubs at home winning 40 of the past 51 times for 78 percent. Cleveland is 7-1 the last eight times Clevinger has thrown against a sub .500 opponent at home. Cincinnati is 18-25 on the road. The Reds were playing their best ball winning 14 of 18 until this weekend. They blew a five-run lead to the Cubs on Saturday and lost in extra innings to the Cubs again on Sunday. They enter this series with bullpen fatigue and off two extremely tough losses. The Reds draw Clevinger coming off extra rest. He last played on July 1 in Oakland beating the A's allowing three runs in six innings. That pushed Clevinger's record to 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA when pitching on six or more days of rest. The Reds are 14-29 in their last 43 games against a righthanded starter. DeSclafani has struggled since coming off the 60-day DL following an oblique strain. He has a 5.08 ERA. His ERA jumps to 7.02 in night games. The Indians rank fifth in homers and runs. So the second part of the equation fits, too, as I see DeSclafani struggling against this lineup. He has a 5.18 ERA in seven interleague starts. Cincinnati is 15-43, too, during its past 58 interleague road contests. (Sizzling Stephen Nover has won 13 of his last 17 premium baseball plays, including nine of his last 11. Stephen has a top Monday baseball total in addition to this free side play selection.)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Jul 09 '18, 4:10 PM in 3h
MLB | Phillies vs Mets
Play on: Mets -101 at Bovada

10* FREE MLB PICK (Mets -101) - GAME #1 (Doubleheader)
I'll take my chances here with New York at home against the Phillies in Game 1 of their double-header on Monday. The public is all over Philadelphia in this one, yet the line has moved quite a bit in favor of the Mets. New York didn't score a run in either of their final two games against the Rays over the weekend. They managed just 2 hits in yesterday's 9-0 loss to Tampa and that's worth noting, as the Mets are 37-17 in their last 54 after a game where they had 2 or fewer hits. The Phillies are also just 18-34 in their last 52 road games when listed anywhere from +125 to -125. It's also worth pointing out that New York's starter, Zack Wheeler, comes in hot with a 2.66 ERA in his last 3 starts and is 3-1 with a 2.82 ERA in 8 career starts against Philadelphia. Give me the Mets -101!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Picks 2 Play

MLB TAMPA BAY RAYS ‑1.5