Saturday 7-14-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Arapahoe Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - SA - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $5200 Class Rating: 87

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $2,500 OR LESS IN 2017-2018. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 MAJOR TRUTH 5/2

# 2 CADILLAC CHROME 4/1

# 1 WANDERNINTHEFOREST 5/1

MAJOR TRUTH has a very good shot to take this race. His 78 average has this gelding with among the top Speed Figures for this event. He looks very good in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. Is difficult not to examine given the company run in as of late. CADILLAC CHROME - Had one of the best Speed Figures of this field in his last contest. WANDERNINTHEFOREST - Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this mare. Ran a strong last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Belmont Park

07/14/18, BEL, Race 9, 5.50 ET
1M [Turf] 1.31.01 STAKES. Purse $150,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double .Leg D X-Country Pick 4
Best in race - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
Top Horse Win Percent 26.57, $1 ROI 0.99, For Race Category Non-Maiden Turf
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer FLAGS
100.0000 2 Disco Partner 9/5 Ortiz. Jr. I Clement Christophe JSEWC
098.1058 3 Offering Plan 6-1 Castellano J Brown Chad C.
097.2828 6 Pocket Change 6-1 Lezcano J Servis Jason T
096.9259 4 Voodoo Song 5-1 Franco M Rice Linda L
096.8850 1 Mr Havercamp 8-1 Alvarado J Day Phillips Catherine F
096.7788 7 Projected (GB) 3-1 Rosario J Brown Chad C.
095.1350 5 Blind Ambition 8-1 Saez L Pletcher Todd A.
If Race Is Off Turf
Top Horse Win Percent 28.48, $1 ROI 0.90, For Race Category Non-Maiden Dirt
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer FLAGS
100.0000 2 Disco Partner 9/5 Ortiz. Jr. I Clement Christophe JSFEWC
098.8734 6 Pocket Change 6-1 Lezcano J Servis Jason T
098.6758 7 Projected (GB) 3-1 Rosario J Brown Chad C.
098.2692 4 Voodoo Song 5-1 Franco M Rice Linda L
098.2567 3 Offering Plan 6-1 Castellano J Brown Chad C.
097.2451 5 Blind Ambition 8-1 Saez L Pletcher Todd A.
096.8600 1 Mr Havercamp 8-1 Alvarado J Day Phillips Catherine

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Charles Town - Race #8 - Post: 10:19pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 66

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 ALLEN'S SONG (ML=8/1)
#5 CLOWN QUESTION (ML=9/2)


ALLEN'S SONG - I really like that recent race on June 30th at Charles Town where she finished third. This speed freak should be aided by today's shorter trip. Trainer, Pennella, has been deliberate with this mare off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. CLOWN QUESTION - Ran a less than stellar race at Charles Town last time around the track. Racing on a fast track puts this mare at the top of my contenders roll call. This horse brings in a lot of money per race. Number one in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 FRAGRENT CANDLE (ML=6/5), #2 LIVE FREE (ML=5/1), #3 DIAMOND CAUSEWAY (ML=6/1),

FRAGRENT CANDLE - I don't normally play a probable favorite that hasn't been to the track in the last three weeks. Unlikely that the fig she registered on June 21st will hold up in this affair. LIVE FREE - I'm always particularly concerned about any horse that earns her biggest speed figure on an 'off' track. DIAMOND CAUSEWAY - No good results for this less than sharp equine in a short distance contest over the last 60 days tells me that this mare is in a very difficult circumstance



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #6 ALLEN'S SONG on the nose if you can get odds of 5/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ellis Park
Ellis Park - Race 1

Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Double / $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)


Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $10,400 • Post: 12:50
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. JUST OLD SCHOOL is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * JUST OLD SCHOOL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3
JUST OLD SCHOOL
4/5

1/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
3
JUST OLD SCHOOL
3

4/5
Front-runner
73

61

66.2

58.2

54.7
6
COUNTRY FAST
6

4/1
Alternator/Trailer
0

0

50.6

52.0

48.5
2
GET BUSY OR DIE
2

8/1
Alternator/Trailer
0

0

22.6

42.3

32.8
8
LIFE'S WAY
8

12/1
Alternator/Trailer
0

0

6.6

37.0

28.0
7
BRIAR JUMPER
7

12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

64.5

22.8

13.8
1
FAR TURN
1

5/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

64.3

35.1

25.6
4
ROCKSONG
4

30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

15.2

5.7

0.0
5
GIANT'S OAK HALO
5

30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

9.5

34.1

22.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fairmount Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8600 Class Rating: 74

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR IBF OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 14 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE IN 2018 ALLOWED 6 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 ECO STAR 4/1

# 4 CONQUEST CLASSIC 5/2

# 6 G P'S GIRL 7/2

ECO STAR is the strongest bet in this race. Looks very good to be up on the front end at the first call. Could best this group of horses in this race based on the speed fig - 76 - of her last effort. Has posted formidable Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past. CONQUEST CLASSIC - Reason to like this filly as she has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days. With a very good 72 speed figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this affair. G P'S GIRL - Has run admirably when running a dirt sprint race. Has been running soundly in races of this distance, going 3 for 16 under similar conditions.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ruidoso Downs
Ruidoso Downs - Race 14

Exacta / Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / 1st Leg .50 Pick 3 /2nd Leg Pick 4


Trial • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 87 • Purse: $4,000 • Post: 5:12P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLD REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BREDS THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE 2018 ZIA QUARTER HORSE DERBY. WEIGHT: 122,LBS. ALL HORSES MUST ENTER FOR THE TRIALS ON SATURDAY, JULY 7, 2018 BY 10:00A.M. AND PAY $800 ENTRY FEE. LATE NOMINATIONS OF $15,000 (INCLUDES ALL FEES) WILL BE ACCEPTED AT TIME OF ENTRY INTO THE TRIALS. THE TEN FASTEST TIMES FROM THE TRIALS WILL QUALIFY FOR THE FINALS. THERE WILL BE NO ALSO ELIGIBLES LIST FOR THE FINAL.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * FLASH MOONFIRE: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SIXIMOONS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DADDYS COPY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MILES OF FLASH: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6
FLASH MOONFIRE
2/1

5/1
4
SIXIMOONS
3/1

6/1
1
DADDYS COPY
4/1

6/1
5
MILES OF FLASH
6/1

9/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
DADDYS COPY
1

4/1
Average
94

86

3.6

0.0

0.0
2
HOPEY CHICK
2

15/1
Slow
0

0

8.8

0.0

0.0
3
NUMBER ONE EPISODE
3

10/1
Slow
0

0

7.1

0.0

0.0
4
SIXIMOONS
4

3/1
Average
94

91

4.1

0.0

0.0
5
MILES OF FLASH
5

6/1
Fast
92

80

2.9

0.0

0.0
6
FLASH MOONFIRE
6

2/1
Average
95

94

3.9

0.0

0.0
7
CD DADDYS HOME
7

10/1
Average
0

0

5.8

0.0

0.0
8
AVALLON
8

8/1
Average
85

81

3.9

0.0

0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Thistledown - Race #3 - Post: 2:40pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,900 Class Rating: 70

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 DR. RINCON (ML=3/1)
#2 HE'S NO ANGEL (ML=4/1)


DR. RINCON - I really like sprinters that make a quick turnaround. Have to like the early speed on this one. No one else may even be close. This horse brings in a lot of dough per start. Tops in this event. The 67 last race speed rating looks good on paper. HE'S NO ANGEL - Don't often see a lucrative return on investment like +67. This jockey/handler duo has done well together over the last 12 months. I like to bet on this handicapping theory, a pony coming back off a solid effort within the last month. The improved Equibase speed figures over the last 3 races is great. Rettele drops him in this race ready to win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 BLACK PEARL (ML=5/2), #6 SATURADO (ML=6/1), #7 TWO FOR THE MONEY (ML=8/1),

BLACK PEARL - Should be difficult for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the possibly overvalued equines list. SATURADO - No picnic to wager on this runner this time out. Make him show you something in a short distance race before you play him in a race of 5 1/2 furlongs. TWO FOR THE MONEY - This gelding hasn't had any in the money results in sprint affairs in the last 60 days. This horse hasn't shown too much in the last two races.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - DR. RINCON - After a layoff, has had a few races and today he enters a sprint race. Should be back in form, so I expect this horse to perform well in this race.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #5 DR. RINCON on top if we're getting at least 3/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 5
David Schwab

Saturday, July 14

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) at British Columbia Lions (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
Point-spread: OFF
Point-spread: OFF

Game Overview

Winnipeg gained the early edge in this home-and-home series with its play on both sides of the ball. Andrew Harris rushed for 109 yards and a touchdown on nine carries and Adam Bighill posted a pair of interceptions on defense including one that was returned 55-yards for a touchdown. Leading 28-10 at the half, the Blue Bombers cruised to the lopsided win. Matt Nichols saw his first action of the season coming off a knee injury and the rust was evident with a 55.2 completion percentage on 29 passing attempts for 162 yards and a score.

The Lions have gotten doubled up in their last two games by a combined score of 82-41. Both losses came on the road following a 22-10 victory at home against Montreal as 8 ½-point favorites in Week 1. Jonathan Jennings ended last Saturday’s game with 105 yards passing plus those two picks with zero touchdown throws. Cody Fajardo added a third interception while completing five of six attempts for 68 yards. Jeremiah Johnson had a decent day running the ball with 80 rushing yards on 13 attempts.

Betting Trends

-- Winnipeg has won six of the last nine meetings SU while covering ATS in eight of those games. It has a 6-1 edge ATS in its last seven road games against the Lions and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings in BC.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Saturday, July 14

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WINNIPEG (2 - 2) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 2) - 7/14/2018, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 6-1 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 4-3 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 5

Trend Report

Saturday, July 14

Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Winnipeg is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games
Winnipeg is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Winnipeg is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Winnipeg's last 18 games on the road
Winnipeg is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing British Columbia
Winnipeg is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing British Columbia
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Winnipeg's last 8 games when playing British Columbia
Winnipeg is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
Winnipeg is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Winnipeg's last 16 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
British Columbia Lions
British Columbia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
British Columbia is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of British Columbia's last 6 games
British Columbia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
British Columbia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games at home
British Columbia is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Winnipeg
British Columbia is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 7 of British Columbia's last 8 games when playing Winnipeg
British Columbia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
British Columbia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of British Columbia's last 16 games when playing at home against Winnipeg

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Dunkel

Week 5


Saturday, July 14

Winnipeg @ BC Lions

Game 365-266
July 14, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
110.760
BC Lions
109.472
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Winnipeg
by 1 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Winnipeg
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Winnipeg
N/A

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 5

Winnipeg (2-2) @ BC Lions (1-2)— Winnipeg covered eight of last nine series games. Blue Bombers waxed BC 41-19 last week, racing out to 28-10 halftime lead. Lions threw three INT’s, were -3 in turnovers, and were outgained 359-280. Home side won four of last five series games; Bombers lost their last two visits here, by total of four points. Over is 3-1 in Bomber games this year; they scored 56-41 points in their two wins, 30-17 in their losses. Winnipeg split its first two road games. Home side won Lions’ first three games this year; they beat Montreal 22-10 in their home opener. Over is 2-1 in BC games this year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, July 14

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (12 - 8) at SEATTLE (15 - 6) - 7/14/2018, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 123-86 ATS (+28.4 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1997.
DALLAS is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in May, June, or July games this season.
DALLAS is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after allowing 75 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 4-4 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 4-4 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA

Saturday, July 14

Trend Report

Dallas Wings
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Dallas's last 11 games
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Dallas is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Dallas is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing on the road against Seattle

Seattle Storm
Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games at home
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Seattle is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games when playing at home against Dallas
Seattle is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas