Service Plays Monday 7/16/18

**dawggy** · 07-16-2018, 02:19 AM

Arthur Ralph

TROPHY play American League -125

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-16-2018, 08:20 AM

Sizing up the sluggers and betting odds for the 2018 MLB Home Run Derby
Rob Hansen

Bryce Harper enters his home-town derby as the betting favorite at 11/4. His 172 career home runs ranks him No. 16 all-time for a player in his age-25 season or younger.

Major League Baseball's annual slugfest goes Monday night at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. If you're one of those people that simply can't take a night off from betting sports - and the WNBA doesn't appeal to you (wait...there are no WNBA games Monday either?!?! Jeez.) - the MLB Home Run Derby is here to prevent you from taking a sports vacation and/or spending time with the family.

The host venue, Nationals Park, slightly favors left-handed hitters as the power alley in right-center will be an absolute haven for the four lefties in the derby lineup.

Left Field - 337 feet
Left-Center - 377 feet
Center Field - 402 feet
Right-Center - 370 feet
Right Field - 335 feet

For you weather watchers out there, Monday in Washington, D.C. is expected to bring very warm temperatures approaching 100 degrees during the afternoon and coming down slightly to around 90 degrees in the evening for the derby. The balls will be flying with the warm summer air and there will even be a 10-12 mile per hour wind blowing out to center field.

This all adds up to a home run hitter's paradise. Now let's get to the competitors (betting odds courtesy of Westgate LV Superbook):

(1) Jesus Aguilar, Milwaukee Brewers 6/1 (Right) - Aguilar nabs the No. 1 seed because he is the competitor with the most home runs hit during the first half with 23. The interesting thing about Aguilar's 23 dingers is that he hit all of them after April 23. Jesus is a big dude and can hit bombs to all fields with ease, but being that he is such a large human he will likely wear down in the heat if he gets past Rhys Hoskins and into the second round.

(2) Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals 11/4 (left) - Harper enters his home-town derby as the betting favorite at 11/4. His 172 career home runs ranks him No. 16 all-time for a player in his age-25 season or younger. Harper, of course, hits mommoth home runs and should easily cash in on the 30 second bonus in each round for hitting two or more 440 foot bombs. Just like his previous Home Run Derby experience, Harper will have his father tossing him batting practice fastballs from behind the screen. As the only player who has previously competed in one of these events at the major league level, the experience factor will be a massive advantage.

(3) Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers 6/1 (left) - One of the most surprising players in baseball at the All-Star break is Max Muncy of the Dodgers. His 22 home runs at this point of the season ranks him third in this competition and he posesses one of the most desirable hitting traits for home run derby participants - "easy power". Incredibly, 5.5 percent of his swings and 14.3 percent of his batted balls have left the ballpark thus far in 2018.

(4) Alex Bregman, Houston Astros 8/1 (right) - World Series Champion Alex Bregman comes into this event with 19 dingers on the season and 18 of those long balls have come since May 6. Bregman is a very good hitter but doesn't posses the power to hit the ball far enough to earn extra time on the clock, which will hurt him. He'll hit some home runs in the event, and the juiced derby balls will help him squeak a few more wall scratchers than expected. The only American League participant will likely make an early exit.

(5) Kyle Schwarber, Chicago Cubs 6/1 (left) - The highest ranked of the two Cubs' sluggers in the event, Kyle Schwarber, also owns the three hardest hit home runs in Cubs' history, since Statcast began tracking exit velocity, peaking at 117.1 miles per hour earlier this season in Cleveland. "Skinny Schwarber" comes in with 18 home runs at the break after a disappointing 2017 where he hit 30 bombs but batted only .211.

(6) Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs 8/1 (right) - Free-swinging Javy Baez is the second of two Cubs' sluggers in the Derby. Interesting notes on Baez - he has more homers than walks this season and he is one of only six MLB hitters to have at least eight home runs off curveballs and sliders in the first half. Perhaps he should advise his pitcher to mix in a spinner or two Monday night. Sportsbooks should be releasing prop odds on whether or not Javy swings-and-misses during his time at the plate during the Derby. Baez will swing really hard and fail to advance past Muncy in the first round.

(7) Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves 6/1 (left) - Freeman is a great slugger to all fields and comes into the event with the best pure baseball numbers. 16 home runs, 60 runs batted in, and a first half batting average of .315 will certainly garner you some National League Most Valuable Player Award votes, but it won't help you a great deal in a derby setting - especially when you draw the hometown hero in the opening round. Freeman simply doesn't hit the ball far enough to compete with Harper and will exit early.

(8) Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies 7/1 (right) - Hoskins burst on to the MLB scene in 2017 with a major league record 18 home runs in his first 35 games. He is a natural to be included in Monday's event based on the historic start to his career, despite only having 14 dingers at the break. Hoskins possesses big power (especially on fastballs) and could be a live underdog to pull the No. 8 seed over No. 1 seed upset in the first round.

Pick to win:

This entire event appears set up perfectly for Harper to win in front of the home fans. He's the only participant who has competed in the MLB Home Run Derby in the past, it's a very weak field with minimal star power, he hits long home runs which will earn him bonus time on the clock (30 seconds of bonus time for clubbing two or more home runs of 440 feet or further), and the home crowd will be behind him. At 11/4 the value actually isn't that terrible, but if you're looking for someone slightly further down the odds list, take a peek at Max Muncy at 6/1. Muncy is built to hit home runs and almost everything he makes contact with seems to leave the yard. 6/1 is decent value for a guy who should be able to take down a pair of Cubs' sluggers in his bracket and advance to the finals.

Opening Round Matchups:

Hoskins +115
Aquilar -135

Freeman +170
Harper -200

Schwarber -150
Bregman +130

Baez +130
Muncy -150

**DropDimes** · 07-16-2018, 07:20 PM

Be careful with this advice since the guy doesn’t even know how the brackets work. Muncy won’t face two cubs to get to the finals, he’d get the Harper/Freeman winner in the semi’s

Service Plays Monday 7/16/18

Service Plays Monday 7/16/18

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