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BTW Dave Essler or his site made the original mistake:
DAVE ESSLER | MLB TOTAL SUN, 08/05/18 - 1:10 PM
918 TAM / 917 CWS Over 8.5 Pinnacle
triple-dime bet
Analysis:
This is supposed to be Twins/Royals over. Sorry, I'll get it changed.
It's gonna happen again - in Santana's two starts he's induced 6 ground ball outs and had THIRTY fly ball outs, so there's yellow flag number one. Alex Gordon has taken him deep twice and Gordon is hot right now - Merrifield has hit him well and it's always a good thing when the leadoff hitter gets on base. Duffy has has six straight 100+ pitch games and three of them more than 112 pitches - too many. This will be his fourth start this season against the Twins, so there's tons of recent familiarity, and right before the break the Twins lost three straight to the Royals, so there is the whole pride thing going on. We know from yesterday's reasoning that neither bullpen is worth much, and the weather today is much better than yesterday. Mild temperatures, fairly humid, and a slight breeze out to LF. Bill Miller behind the plate can go either way, but after a long string of "unders" to start the season his games have been higher scoring. So, we've got another case where both teams should score, hopefully 4 runs each early - but there are far too many ways this gets there and only a pitchers' duel whereby it doesn't. And we don't have Bret Saberhagen against Bert Blyleven.
Once again there is reasonable Mets' money - Oswalt has been very solid and Teheran isn't nearly as good on the road - but there IS that Mets bullpen so I do like Mets F5 here.
There some indication Wade Miley is the right side but I'd admit to being concerned about his inevitable regression. Jon Gray is arguably the Rockies best starter - slight lean early to Colorado here, but the Brewers are hot, although their bullpen DID load the bases in the ninth last night.
The Padres have actually hit Lester reasonably well and Luchessi is someone the Cubs haven't seen. Although, they do fare well against LHP - maybe the over and the Padres RL.
The money is clearly on the Yankees tonight and I can't disagree at the moment. New York has hit Price well and obviously hammer LHP regardless. Historically Tanaka isn't a great road pitcher, so I'll wait it out. I don't like prime time "overs" but that may be an option as well, or maybe F5 over since both bullpens are solid.
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