Wednesday 8-15-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369801

    #31
    Wednesday's Diamond Notes
    Kevin Rogers

    Hottest team: Cardinals (9-1 last 10)

    Less than a month ago, St. Louis sat with a .500 record at 51-51 after dropping two of three at Cincinnati. The Cardinals have caught fire ever since by winning 14 of their last 18 games, including seven consecutive victories. St. Louis pulled off a three-game sweep of rival Kansas City last weekend, followed by a pair of home wins over a fading Washington squad to pull within four games of first place Chicago in the NL Central.

    The Redbirds have done most of their damage of late from the plate by scoring at least six runs in each of their last six wins. Austin Gomber takes the mound for the Cardinals in the third game of their four-game set with the Nationals tonight as the southpaw is coming off a five-inning scoreless effort against Kansas City in his past start.

    Coldest team: Astros (0-5 last five)

    The wheels are falling off the wagon for the defending champion Astros, who haven’t won a home game since July 14. Amazingly, Houston hasn’t picked up a victory at Minute Maid Park in the second half of the season by compiling an 0-8 mark in its last eight home contests. The latest setback came in Tuesday’s 5-1 loss to the Rockies as a -200 favorite, marking eight units lost by Houston in the last four home games alone.

    Houston’s offense can take blame for this recent skid by scoring three runs or less in seven of the past eight games, while Jose Altuve and George Springer remain sidelined. The Astros try to pick up a split of their two-game set with the Rockies as Gerrit Cole looks to not only end the team’s skid, but his own personal slump. Cole is winless in his last three starts, while allowing seven earned runs in his past two outings.

    Hottest pitcher: Robbie Erlin, Padres (2-3, 3.36 ERA)

    San Diego is coming off a successful series against Philadelphia this past weekend, but the Padres are on the verge of getting swept by the Angels at home. Erlin is coming off a pair of solid performances as a road underdog as the Padres beat the Cubs and Brewers on their recent road trip. The southpaw tossed five innings in each of those two starts, including allowing two hits and one earned run in a 6-1 victory at Chicago. Erlin is seeking his first win at Petco Park since September 2015 against Arizona, but the Padres are 2-6 this season when trying to avoid a home sweep.

    Coldest pitcher: Jose Urena, Marlins (3-12, 4.74 ERA)

    Urena won 14 games last season, but has dropped 12 decisions in 2018 as he seeks his fourth win of the season tonight in Atlanta. The Miami right-hander has yielded 16 hits and 10 earned runs in his past two starts, losses to division rivals New York and Philadelphia. Urena was knocked around by Atlanta the last time he faced them in late July by giving up five earned runs in a 12-1 defeat. In three starts this season against the Braves, Urena is 0-3, but the Marlins are 4-3 in his past seven outings.

    Biggest OVER run: Reds (5-1 last six)

    Cincinnati’s offense carried them from June through July, but the runs are drying up. The Reds have been limited to six runs in the last three losses to the Diamondbacks and Indians after scoring six against Arizona last Saturday. The reason for this recent OVER run has been poor pitching as the Reds have given up 9, 10, and 8 runs the past three games. The Reds try to avoid the sweep against the Indians tonight as Robert Stephenson makes his second start this season for Cincinnati. Stephenson lasted four innings in an 8-0 loss to the Mets his last time out, while he opposes Cleveland’s Shane Bieber, who is riding a three-start UNDER streak.

    Biggest UNDER run: Twins (6-1 last seven)

    Minnesota bounced back from a tough road trip to rally past Pittsburgh, 5-2 on Tuesday to cash its fourth straight UNDER. The offense didn’t produce more than four runs in any of their previous seven games prior to last night’s victory. Minnesota seeks the two-game sweep of Pittsburgh as both teams send out strong right-handers to the mound as Jose Berrios opposes Chris Archer. Berrios has suffered plenty of ups and downs since late June as the Twins are 3-5 in his past eight starts, while the OVER has hit in his last two home outings.

    Matchup to watch: Giants vs. Dodgers

    The heated rivalry between San Francisco and Los Angeles reached another boiling point on Tuesday as Dodgers’ outfielder Yasiel Puig was ejected after starting a benches-clearing brawl following a scuffle with Giants’ catcher Nick Hundley. The Giants knocked off the Dodgers for the second straight night with a ninth-inning rally as San Francisco broke a 1-1 tie to pick up a 2-1 victory as +175 underdogs.

    The Giants seek the sweep of the Dodgers tonight at Chavez Ravine as San Francisco has won each of Derek Holland’s last three starts. Holland wasn’t sharp in his past outing against Pittsburgh by giving up 10 hits and five runs in 6.1 innings of a 13-10 victory. The Giants have dropped two of Holland’s three starts against the Dodgers this season, but San Francisco has won five of nine matchups at Los Angeles.

    Los Angeles is in the midst of a five-game skid as Hyun-Jin Ryu tries to put the Dodgers back on the winning track. Ryu is making his first start since May 2 as he has been sidelined with a groin injury. The left-hander put up a solid 2.12 ERA in his first six starts of the season, which included a no-decision against the Giants in a 6-4 loss on April 27. The Dodgers are looking to avoid their second home sweep of the season as Cincinnati pulled the broom on Los Angeles in a four-game set back in May.

    Betcha didn’t know: The Mets were tripped up by the Orioles on Tuesday, but New York sends out right-hander Zack Wheeler to the mound tonight. Wheeler is undefeated in his last six starts for New York, while tossing at least seven innings in four of his past five outings. The last time Wheeler faced the Orioles at Citi Field earlier this season, he scattered three hits in seven scoreless innings, but the Mets dropped a 1-0 decision.

    Biggest public favorite: Braves (-220) vs. Marlins

    Biggest public underdog: Phillies (+105) vs. Red Sox

    Biggest line move: Padres (-115 to -125) vs. Angels
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 369801

      #32
      Diamond Trends - Wednesday
      Vince Akins

      SU Play ON Trend of the Day:

      -- The Orioles are 17-0 SU in the last game of a series vs a team that is not on a five-plus game winning streak when they are off a home game in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off the starter and it is post All-Star break

      SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

      -- The Pirates are 0-12 SU as a dog in the last game of a series when their starters have produced quality starts for three straight and it is post All-Star break.

      Hitter-Based Trend of the Day:

      -- The Indians are 13-0 SU as a road 140+ favorite after a game as a road favorite in which Jose Ramirez hit a home run. Since July, Cleveland has outscored their opponent by an average of 10.8 to 3.2 runs

      Starter-Based Trend of the Day:

      -- The Dodgers are 10-0 SU when Hyun Jin Ryu starts as a 140+ favorite and he had more strikeouts than hits allowed in his last start. LA is 8-0 their last 8 on the run-line in this spot.
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 369801

        #33
        MLB

        Wednesday, August 15



        Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

        Streaking:
        Zack Wheeler, New York Mets (7-6, 3.82 ERA, $-138)

        Winning games as a starting pitcher for the New York Metropolitans is hard, just ask Jacob deGrom, so that fact that Zack Wheeler has won five consecutive starts (team wins in six straight) is truly impressive. From an individual stats perspective he's been "lights out" in his last three outings with an ERA of 0.90, a WHIP of 0.75, an opponent's on-base percentage of .200, and 24 strikeouts with only three walks.

        Wheeler and the Mets have another winnable game today as -130 favorites in Baltimore against Dylan Bundy and the Orioles.

        Slumping:
        Jose Urena, Miami Marlins (3-12, 4.74, $-889)

        The Miami Marlins are who we thought they were - terrible at, pretty much, every aspect of baseball. Jose Urena is supposed to be their ace but it must be really difficult with Double-A players at almost every position on the field. Urena will mix in a gem occassionally, like he did against the Nationals a couple of weeks ago, but mostly things have not gone well for the righty. Over his last five starts, including six innings of shutout pitching against the Nats, he's dealing with an ERA of 7.40 and a WHIP of 1.6438.

        Urena will hope to have one of his "don't forget about me" outings today as a +195 underdog in Atlanta against Kevin Gausman and the Braves.


        Amazing Acuña

        It’s hard to fathom just how hot Braves rookie Ronald Acuña Jr. is right now. The 20-year-old in his first big league season has hit eight home runs in the last eight games and is the youngest player ever to homer in five consecutive games, which includes a leadoff dinger in the last three games. Oh, and over the last eight games he’s hitting a measly .471 with a 1.749 OPS!!! Just, wow.

        That doesn’t bode well for today’s slumping starter Jose Urena, who has a first inning ERA of 4.30. We like Acuña and the NL East leading Braves to stay hot, making Bottom 1st Run: Yes (+150) a strong (and fun) play here.


        Houston, We Have a (Home) Problem

        What is going on in Houston? The Astros have now lost nine consecutive games at Minute Maid Park and lead the surging A’s by just one game in the AL West. The Astros starters haven’t been as ridiculously good as they were early on, but they’re not the problem here as it’s Houston’s bats that have gone silent.

        During the home losing skid, the are scoring just 2.8 runs per game and since the All-Star break the Astros rank 27th in runs scored and OPS, and 28th in batting average. With the Astros bats in a funk and Gerrit Cole on the bump, look at the Under 7.5 in the Astros matchup with Rockies tonight.


        Hell(ickson) of an Under Run

        Nationals starter Jeremy Hellickson has found at least some of the form from his early days in Tampa Bay, producing his lowest ERA since 2012. The result? The Under is 14-2 in his last 16 starts.

        Hellickson’s ERA is solid at 3.54, but it’s his WHIP that’s really impressive at 1.07 as he is once again creating the soft contact that made him so successful in the past. The Under First 5 Innings is always the play in Hellickson’s starts so to avoid the awful Nats bullpen. Today against the Carindals Under 5 is -130.
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 369801

          #34
          WNBA

          Wednesday, August 15


          Trend Report

          Washington Mystics
          Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
          Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
          The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 10 games
          Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games on the road
          Washington is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Indiana
          Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Indiana
          Washington is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Indiana
          Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Indiana
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing on the road against Indiana
          Indiana Fever
          Indiana is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games
          Indiana is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 7 games
          Indiana is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Washington
          Indiana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing Washington
          Indiana is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Washington
          Indiana is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington


          New York Liberty
          New York is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
          New York is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
          The total has gone OVER in 6 of New York's last 8 games
          New York is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
          New York is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
          New York is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Las Vegas
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 6 games when playing Las Vegas
          New York is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
          Las Vegas Aces
          Las Vegas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
          Las Vegas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
          Las Vegas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New York
          Las Vegas is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing New York
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 6 games when playing New York
          Las Vegas is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against New York
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing at home against New York
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 369801

            #35
            WNBA
            Long Sheet

            Wednesday, August 15


            --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

            WASHINGTON (19 - 11) at INDIANA (5 - 26) - 8/15/2018, 7:00 PM
            Top Trends for this game.
            WASHINGTON is 50-73 ATS (-30.3 Units) in road games in August or September games since 1997.
            WASHINGTON is 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) in road games when playing with 2 days rest since 1997.
            WASHINGTON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
            WASHINGTON is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
            INDIANA is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) in all games this season.
            INDIANA is 10-18 ATS (-9.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
            INDIANA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games this season.
            INDIANA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 this season.
            INDIANA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent this season.
            INDIANA is 8-15 ATS (-8.5 Units) after allowing 75 points or more this season.
            INDIANA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
            INDIANA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
            INDIANA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game this season.
            INDIANA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
            INDIANA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.

            Head-to-Head Series History
            WASHINGTON is 6-3 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
            WASHINGTON is 8-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
            5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

            --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

            NEW YORK (7 - 24) at LAS VEGAS (13 - 17) - 8/15/2018, 10:00 PM
            Top Trends for this game.
            NEW YORK is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game this season.
            NEW YORK is 8-16 ATS (-9.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
            LAS VEGAS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) against Eastern conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
            LAS VEGAS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
            NEW YORK is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
            LAS VEGAS is 49-73 ATS (-31.3 Units) in home games after scoring 75 points or more since 1997.

            Head-to-Head Series History
            LAS VEGAS is 7-1 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
            NEW YORK is 5-3 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
            5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 369801

              #36
              WNBA
              Dunkel

              Wednesday, August 15



              Washington @ Indiana

              Game 301-302
              August 15, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

              Dunkel Rating:
              Washington
              116.279
              Indiana
              100.856
              Dunkel Team:
              Dunkel Line:
              Dunkel Total:
              Washington
              by 15 1/2
              161
              Vegas Team:
              Vegas Line:
              Vegas Total:
              Washington
              by 10 1/2
              164 1/2
              Dunkel Pick:
              Washington
              (-10 1/2); Under

              New York @ Las Vegas


              Game 303-304
              August 15, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

              Dunkel Rating:
              New York
              97.548
              Las Vegas
              111.350
              Dunkel Team:
              Dunkel Line:
              Dunkel Total:
              Las Vegas
              by 14
              164
              Vegas Team:
              Vegas Line:
              Vegas Total:
              Las Vegas
              by 10 1/2
              171
              Dunkel Pick:
              Las Vegas
              (-10 1/2); Under
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 369801

                #37
                Team Underground

                MLB COLORADO ROCKIES +190
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 369801

                  #38
                  Vegas Investment Picks

                  MLB CHICAGO CUBS ‑135
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 369801

                    #39
                    Assassin Sports Betting

                    MLB MIAMI MARLINS/ATLANTA BRAVES ‑110 o8.5
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 369801

                      #40
                      Mikey Sports

                      MLB TAMPA BAY RAYS +185
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                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 369801

                        #41
                        Best Sports Capper

                        MLB ATLANTA BRAVES ‑1.5
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 369801

                          #42
                          Power Play Wins

                          MLB NEW YORK YANKEES ‑200
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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 369801

                            #43
                            R and R Totals

                            MLB BOSTON RED SOX/PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES ‑120 u9
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 369801

                              #44
                              Tys Terrific Tips

                              MLB OAKLAND ATHLETICS ‑125
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                              • Can'tPickAWinner
                                Super Moderator
                                • Nov 2012
                                • 369801

                                #45
                                Total Winner Sports

                                MLB ST. LOUIS CARDINALS ‑115
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