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Tuesday, August 21
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays (14-5, 2.10 ERA, $659)
What a breakout season it has been for Blake Snell. The Rays’ young lefty trail just Jacob deGrom and Chris Sale in ERA at 2.10 and aside from a little hiccup against the Twins right before the All-Star break, the kid has been on fire.
Snell has pitched to a 1.18 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP over his last eight starts and has allowed on two long balls over that stretch. Snell and the Rays are big -250 home faves against the visiting Royals tonight.
Slumping: Chris Stratton, San Francisco Giants (8-7, 5.52 ERA, $549) … and Steven Matz, New York Mets (5-10, 4.60 ERA, $2)
This may be a first, but we just couldn’t decide between Stratton and Matz considering they are facing off against one another tonight. But it’s for good reason as both starters have some ugly numbers.
Starting with Stratton, the Giants right-hander has a massive 14.14 ERA in his last four appearances (one relief) with a WHIP of 2.79.
It’s almost shocking of similarly bad the numbers for Matz are. In his last four starts he has a 13.18 ERA with a WHIP of 2.20.
Just. Yuck. Tonight’s total of 8.0 has everything to do with the fact these teams played 13-innings last night and not the starting pitching. We’ll be looking at the Over here.
Under Legend Behind The Plate
Mike Estabrook loves to call strikes and loves to keep the game moving at a respectable pace. Hey, who can blame him?
Over the last five seasons, Estrabrook has averaged an incredibly high strike percentage of 64.59. More strikes = less hitter-friendly counts = less runs = more Unders. Under is 16-7 in his 23 games behind the plate in 2018 and over the last three seasons the Under is 50-25 (66.67 percent) in games called by Estabrook.
He will be behind the plate tonight in Oakland where the red-hot Athletics will be taking on the visiting Texas Rangers. Brett Anderson gets the start for the A's and he's exactly the type of veteran pitcher that will take advantage of Estabrook's wide strike zone. Anderson has allowed zero runs and only seven hits in his last two starts at home (14.2 innings) and we expect that to continue tonight.
Under has cashed in eight of Anderson's last nine starts so take a look at Under 9 for the full game and Texas team total Under 3.5 (+100).
Hitter's Wind At Comerica Park
It could be a tough night for Kyle Hendricks and Jordan Zimmermann as the weather forecast is calling for a 12-14 mile per hour wind blowing out to the power alley in left center field for tonight's game between the Cubs and Tigers at Comerica Park.
The Cubs come into this game in a major offensive slump, averaging only one run per game in their four-game weekend series in Pittsburgh against the Pirates. A day off yesterday, and some favorable winds today, should help turn their bats around.
The total is set at 9 for tonight and if you don't like the full game Over (-110) take a look at the first three innings total of Over 2.5 (-135).
Kopech's Debut
Handicapping a starting pitcher's major league debut is never easy, and tonight's start by White Sox's prospect Micheal Kopech is certainly no exception. Kopech is the No. 13 overall prospect according to MLB.com and the No. 2 right-handed pitching prospect. He was one of the jewels acquired by the White Sox in the trade that sent Chris Sale to Boston in 2016 and possesses an 80-out-of-80 grade fastball.
Even if you don't bet the game, his debut tonight against the Twins should be fun to watch. Kopech has 170 strikeouts in 126.1 innings at AAA this season and has been known to have some control issues with his 100+ mile per hour fastball.
With his command issues, and the nerves surrounding a major league debut in from of an excited home crowd at Guaranteed Rate Field, you may want to take a look at Run in the Top of the 1st: yes at +250 but look for Kopech to settle in and keep the Twins Under 8.5 hits for the game (-145).
Tuesday, August 21
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays (14-5, 2.10 ERA, $659)
What a breakout season it has been for Blake Snell. The Rays’ young lefty trail just Jacob deGrom and Chris Sale in ERA at 2.10 and aside from a little hiccup against the Twins right before the All-Star break, the kid has been on fire.
Snell has pitched to a 1.18 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP over his last eight starts and has allowed on two long balls over that stretch. Snell and the Rays are big -250 home faves against the visiting Royals tonight.
Slumping: Chris Stratton, San Francisco Giants (8-7, 5.52 ERA, $549) … and Steven Matz, New York Mets (5-10, 4.60 ERA, $2)
This may be a first, but we just couldn’t decide between Stratton and Matz considering they are facing off against one another tonight. But it’s for good reason as both starters have some ugly numbers.
Starting with Stratton, the Giants right-hander has a massive 14.14 ERA in his last four appearances (one relief) with a WHIP of 2.79.
It’s almost shocking of similarly bad the numbers for Matz are. In his last four starts he has a 13.18 ERA with a WHIP of 2.20.
Just. Yuck. Tonight’s total of 8.0 has everything to do with the fact these teams played 13-innings last night and not the starting pitching. We’ll be looking at the Over here.
Under Legend Behind The Plate
Mike Estabrook loves to call strikes and loves to keep the game moving at a respectable pace. Hey, who can blame him?
Over the last five seasons, Estrabrook has averaged an incredibly high strike percentage of 64.59. More strikes = less hitter-friendly counts = less runs = more Unders. Under is 16-7 in his 23 games behind the plate in 2018 and over the last three seasons the Under is 50-25 (66.67 percent) in games called by Estabrook.
He will be behind the plate tonight in Oakland where the red-hot Athletics will be taking on the visiting Texas Rangers. Brett Anderson gets the start for the A's and he's exactly the type of veteran pitcher that will take advantage of Estabrook's wide strike zone. Anderson has allowed zero runs and only seven hits in his last two starts at home (14.2 innings) and we expect that to continue tonight.
Under has cashed in eight of Anderson's last nine starts so take a look at Under 9 for the full game and Texas team total Under 3.5 (+100).
Hitter's Wind At Comerica Park
It could be a tough night for Kyle Hendricks and Jordan Zimmermann as the weather forecast is calling for a 12-14 mile per hour wind blowing out to the power alley in left center field for tonight's game between the Cubs and Tigers at Comerica Park.
The Cubs come into this game in a major offensive slump, averaging only one run per game in their four-game weekend series in Pittsburgh against the Pirates. A day off yesterday, and some favorable winds today, should help turn their bats around.
The total is set at 9 for tonight and if you don't like the full game Over (-110) take a look at the first three innings total of Over 2.5 (-135).
Kopech's Debut
Handicapping a starting pitcher's major league debut is never easy, and tonight's start by White Sox's prospect Micheal Kopech is certainly no exception. Kopech is the No. 13 overall prospect according to MLB.com and the No. 2 right-handed pitching prospect. He was one of the jewels acquired by the White Sox in the trade that sent Chris Sale to Boston in 2016 and possesses an 80-out-of-80 grade fastball.
Even if you don't bet the game, his debut tonight against the Twins should be fun to watch. Kopech has 170 strikeouts in 126.1 innings at AAA this season and has been known to have some control issues with his 100+ mile per hour fastball.
With his command issues, and the nerves surrounding a major league debut in from of an excited home crowd at Guaranteed Rate Field, you may want to take a look at Run in the Top of the 1st: yes at +250 but look for Kopech to settle in and keep the Twins Under 8.5 hits for the game (-145).
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