Service Plays Saturday 9/1/18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spartan

3*GOW

Louisiana tech -10


Analysis:
I understand guys. This is not exactly what one would call a marquee game. I get it. But it is important to note that I look for what I consider our best opportunity of the day. Does not truly matter to me whether it is involving an Alabama game or South Alabama game. They all pay the same. We have cashed ten of the last twelve featured releases and I am confident we have another one here. Frankly this is where having some legit, emphasis on legit, sources can pay out. Skip Holtz is building something special at Tech and just has too much talent here on both sides of the ball to stub their toes. They have gone bowling now in four straight years and I anticipate a fast start out of the gate here. The Jaguars are a work in progress and will make strides but this is a short line for Tech to clear. Unless they just have o†ne of those nights with the dreaded turnovers (Purdue) they should take care of business here and clear our number. Smith is a dual threat QB who should actually be able to wing it some against a suspect Jaguars secondary, he will not have to do most his work on the ground. Bulldogs won last year 34-16 and even though it's on the road I do expect at least a two touchdown margin when the clock runs out.

Different season but same emphasis. No game is a lock. That is an ignorant term concocted by crooked services to take advantage of newer, naive sports bettors. Please play this like any triple. No more or less. Many sincere thanks and enjoy your holiday weekend. Good luck to all of us. Enjoy the game,

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

3*pac-12 GOM

WASHINGTON HUSKIES +3 (bought half point)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocky Atkinson

2* Wyoming +2 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

3-Unit Play: Take 151 FAU +21 over Oklahoma (12 noon, Saturday, September 1)

I'm taking the points with Florida Atlantic on Saturday. We are under no delusions that OU will be stopped up front by FAU's defensive line. But we do believe the Owls will keep this one inside the big, public number. The Sooners will run the football, but don't sell Lane Kiffin short on having his team ready to go. Kiffin doesn't care about a recruits background too much, we all know that fact. And FAU is made up of very talented players who were simply castoffs at major programs. Included in this is an offense loaded at the skill positions. In other words, the FAU roster knows they have the talent to hang with OU. Add in Kiffin's offensive genius and the fact the Sooners will be breaking in a new signal caller and we are betting the Owls hang the number. We're taking the points with FAU on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

6-Unit Play: Take 177 Louisiana Tech -10 over So Alabama (7 p.m., Sat. Sept. 1)

I'm laying the points with La Tech on Saturday. South Alabama absolutely collapsed to end last season and the school parted ways with the only head football coach it had ever known. We like the hire, Steve Campbell ought to get the program on track sooner than later, but not here. The Jags will have too much of a square pegs in round holes look to it in the early going and La Tech is a formidable opponent. The starting QB left the program in the spring and there's talk that up to three players could see time at QB behind a makeshift offensive line. La Tech returns 8 starters on offense, including 80 percent of the offensive line ( 4 of 5). The Bulldogs rolled down the stretch, including a 51-10 bowl win over SMU to set the tone for this season. The returning players feel like they were ?this close? to something really big. Indeed, while they finished 7-6 SU, they were three 1-point losses and an OT loss from an 11-2 record. La Tech piled-up 479 yards in last year's 18-point win, including 317 yards passing and 8.1 yards per pass. We expect more success in this season's meeting and another spread covering win. We're backing Louisiana Tech minus the points on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

3-Unit Play: Take 183 MTSU +3 over Vanderbilt (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)

I'm taking the points with Middle Tennessee State on Saturday night. This is a power rating special for us as we have MTSU 2 points better than Vandy at this venue. MTSU will aim to make up for last year's ugly performance against the Commodores. They'll be able to start by attacking Vandy's vulnerable and likely, poor, defensive back-seven. The Vandy defense dominated last year's meeting, but we expect different results here with the 'Dores only returning five starters and having to face an offense with plenty of returning skill position players, including dual-threat QB Brent Stockstill. The road team has covered five of the last six meetings and we'll ride the road team here. We're taking the points with MTSU on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

4-Unit Play: Take 193 Washington +2 over Auburn (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)

I'm taking the points with Washington on Saturday. Earlier this summer, Auburn had a posted Over/Under wins total of 9.5 wins. This number has steadily come down with many books sitting at 9 wins and we happen to agree with the downward movement. We are believers in QB Jarrett Stidham, but we don't like the fact he'll have four new starters up front on the offensive line and new blood surrounding him in the offensive backfield. This is not the place to find chemistry, facing one of the top defenses in college football. Chris Peterson's Huskies are loaded on offense, led by the best player on the field, Myles Gaskin at RB and QB Jake Browning returning for his fourth season as the starter. We also expect bigger and better things from the UW receiving corps, despite a loss at TE. UW returns 8 on offense and 9 starters on defense and they're ready to challenge for a national title in our opinion, while we agree with the downward wins total movement on Auburn. We're taking the points with Washington on Saturday in Atlanta. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Winners Circle
SATURDAY

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
500* Play Auburn -2.5 over Washington
Washington has lost 29 of the last 51 games against the spread when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points and they have lost 74 of the last 140 games against the spread when playing as an underdog.

Extra College Football Plays
200* Play Florida International +10.5 over Indiana
200* Play Mississippi +2.5 over Texas Tech


MLB BASEBALL
100* Play San Francisco -130 over New York Mets
100* Play Atlanta -145 over Pittsburgh

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS

4-Unit Play. Take #166 Illinois (-16) over Kent State (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 1)
Illinois is not good. They aren't good at all. However, they are still a lot better than Kent State. The Illini were the youngest team in college football last year, breaking a record for starts by freshmen. (At one point they had 15 freshmen starters.) They are still one of the youngest teams in college football. But in Year 3 of Lovie's complete and total program rebuild, he is starting to use more juniors and sophomores than just freshmen and sophomores. Illinois has 16 returning starters back. And a lot more guys than that earned starts last season. They are just better than Kent State, which is one of the worst programs in college football. They are 14-45 over the last five years. Four of those wins have come against FCS opponents. And most of their nonconference games haven't been close to competitive. In fact, they lost 52-3 at Illinois back in 2015, a year Illinois went just 5-7 and fired their coach. Last year one of their two wins came against Howard. Kent State just isn't any good. I know its odd to see the Illini as this large of a favorite. But in this case it is warranted.

2-Unit Play. Take #173 Texas (-13.5) over Maryland (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 1)
I'm kind of surprised that this line hasn't spiked a bit. Maryland's program is in shambles right now. They had a player die in offseason workouts. Their coach was forced into administrative leave. The entire training staff has been under investigation. They have an interim coach and they haven't picked a quarterback yet. And now they are facing off against a pissed-off Texas team that wants revenge for an embarrassing home loss in Tom Herman's first game last year. Texas should've been better than it was last season. But they also lost four of their six games by five points or less so they actually were better than their record. These guys have a load of experience with 10 three-year starters and 13 senior starters. This is Herman's second season and I think his program will make some strides. This game isn't on Maryland's campus. So that could be another edge for Texas. Regardless, I think Texas is the better team and I think that the controversy swirling around Maryland will be a big distraction.

5-Unit Play. Take #175 Boise State (-10) over Troy (6 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
Boise State may be the best team outside of the Power 5 conferences. They are stacked on defense with 10 starters, and 16 of its top 18 tacklers, back on a group that finished in the Top 25 last year. The Broncos also have a four-year starter at quarterback, Brett Rypien, and that gives them a huge edge in this game. Troy graduated its own four-year starter at QB this past spring and they won't be the same team without Brandon Silvers. Troy also lost its two leading rushers and four of its top six receivers so they are completely rebuilding the offense. Troy didn't score an offensive touchdown in their game against Boise State last year, getting their lone score on an interception return. Yes, Troy has revenge for that 24-13 loss at Boise last year. But the Trojans aren't nearly as good of a team this season while Boise State may be better. Over the last 10 years Boise State is a fantastic 36-16 ATS as a road favorite. They are capable of laying the wood when they play off the Smurf turf and that's exactly what I think they do here against an overmatched Troy team.

1-Unit Play. Take #182 North Texas (-4.5) over SMU (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
I think it is time for a little revenge out of the Mean Green. They have lost to SMU three straight seasons in three straight blowouts. But this is clearly Seth Littrell's best team and I think that they are going to put up points in a hurry. SMU is underdoing a transition from Chad Morris to Sonny Dykes. I actually thought SMU made a great get to land Dykes. But this year's SMU team, on top of learning new systems, is not nearly as deep or as talented as last year's. I think the fact that North Texas is favored in this one is a bit of a red flag - they were 13-point underdogs last year and 10-point underdogs the year prior - and I think that the Mean Green will get a win to start the year.

1-Unit Play. Take #183 Middle Tennessee State (+3) over Vanderbilt (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
Middle Tennessee State went to Syracuse and pulled an upset last year. I think that they could claim another Power 5 scalp here against Vanderbilt. MTSU is also going to be a lot more motivated in this one against a bigger, in-state, SEC school. I mean, a win in this game would make Middle Tennessee's season. The Blue Raiders have a great offensive system and a healthy quarterback, Brent Stockstill, that will be able to move the ball. This line is deceptively low - and it's dropping. That's kind of a red flag to me as I feel the public will be all over Vandy but that we could see an upset here.

2-Unit Play. Take #186 Arizona (-11.5) over BYU (10:45 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
I obviously like Arizona this year because I used them as one of my top college football futures play. So I am going to throw in with them early in this season. I think that this offense is going to be just as explosive with Kevin Sumlin at the control. And I think that they were underachievers overall the past two years under Rich Rod. Now that they have cleared the decks with the coaching staff I think that they will unlock some of that potential. BYU is not nearly as good as they were under Bronco Mendenhall. They will be better than the debacle they were last year. But I think that Arizona is a team that could potentially win their division in the Pac-12, so I just don't think that the Cougars are going to be able to hang in this one.

2-Unit Play. Take #191 Cincinnati (+15) over UCLA (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
I definitely like the Bearcats in this spot. I know everyone is excited about Chip Kelly's return to college football. But let's slow down a bit. This is not a talented team and it is going to take a while before Kelly's system takes root. This is not like when he took over at Oregon, where his tenure was a continuation. Kelly is starting from scratch. UCLA also suspended six players for this week's game and they haven't settled on a quarterback, with as many as three different guys potentially getting snaps this weekend. The Bearcats bottomed out last year. But this isn't some walkover program. From 2005-2015 Cincinnati was one of the most underrated programs in the country. They have some athletes and they are used to playing big time opponents. Last year a young UC team went to Michigan and also took on Central Florid and South Florida. They will be improved this season. And I think they have the athletes to hang around in this game. I don't see a blowout. In fact, an upset in this game wouldn't completely stun me. So this is an easy call to take the points.

2-Unit Play. Take #197 Mississippi (+2.5) over Texas Tech (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 1)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 67.0 Mississippi at Texas Tech (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 1)
If the Kliff Kingsbury Era in Texas Tech is known for anything it should be for Tech's total inability to beat legitimate opponents. The Red Raiders routinely face one of the weakest schedules in the country. Despite that, Kingsbury is just 30-33 in his five years in Lubbock. If you take away FCS, CUSA, Sun Belt wins and wins over Kansas then Kingsbury is 15-33! Literally half of his wins have come against fringe programs. Ole Miss is not that. The Rebels have SEC talent. And while I think that the SEC has been the most overrated conference in the country, the fact is that Ole Miss isn't some CUSA pushover. The Rebels have a bowl ban this year. So big nonconference games like this are going to take on added significance. They have 15 starters back and some serious talent on both sides of the ball. I just think they are better. This game is going to be a mess, with both teams scoring in the 40's

4-Unit Play. Take #211 Michigan (+1.5) over Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
I am all in on Michigan this year. I think this team has the potential to win a national championship. And I expect them to make the college football playoffs. And that starts with a win here in South Bend. Jim Harbaugh is one of the best football coaches in the country - college or pro - period. He rebuilt that Stanford program from nothing. He took a totally irrelevant San Francisco franchise and nearly won a Super Bowl. And now he is rebuilding a Michigan program that had been a mess when he got there. (And he nearly made the playoffs in 2016, losing three games by a total of five points.) All summer long Harbaugh has listened to people doubting him and ragging on his work in Ann Arbor. You think this guy isn't motivated? Michigan has one of the best defenses in the country. He has a legit-as-hell quarterback for the very first time at Michigan. Last year at this time he had five total returning starters. This year he has 17. All four of Michigan's regular season losses last year were to Top 15 teams. This program is fine. And I think they will prove it with a win here. Notre Dame is really good. I can't trash them at all. But they are just 5-10 SU in their last 15 games against ranked teams. And those wins have come against teams like N.C. State, Temple, and Georgia Tech. They are 2-9 (including bowls) against Top 12 teams. I just think that Michigan is the better team. And I think that they will prove it in this one.

4-Unit Play. Take #262 Arkansas (-35) over Eastern Illinois (4 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
Eastern Illinois was the third-best team in the OVC last year. And they definitely aren't better this year. This team averaged just 17.6 points per game last season and they lost five all-league players. Last season all six wins came by three points or less, with three of the wins coming in overtime. So these guys were just a few plays from being 2-9 or 1-10 rather than 6-5. Last year they played one FBS team, middling Northern Illinois from the MAC. They lost by 28. They played just two ranked FCS teams and they lost by 31 and by 16. In 2015 they faced Northwestern and lost by 41. I am obviously all-in on Arkansas this year. I think they are undervalued and I think that they are going to hammer their season win total. I also think they are going to hammer this Eastern Illinois team. Arkansas has a ton of offensive skill talent back. And they have an absolutely mammoth offensive line that should walk through Eastern Illinois' defense. This program has shown a propensity to throttle weak sister opponents like EIU. Last year Arkansas beat Florida A&M 49-7. In 2016 they beat Texas State 42-3 and Alcorn State 52-10. In 2015 they played UT-Martin in the middle of the season and won 63-28. In 2014 they took on Nicholls State in Week 2 and won 73-7. So the Razorbacks have it in them. I think new head coach Chad Morris will want to get off to a good start and will want to make a statement. I can see this game getting out of control and I see Arkansas walking away with it.

2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #201 West Virginia (-3) over Tennessee (3:30 p.m.) AND Take #175 Boise State (-3) over Troy (6 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #173 Texas (-6.5) over Maryland (Noon) AND Take #186 Arizona (-4.5) over BYU (10:45 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #211 Michigan (+8.5) over Notre Dame (7:30 p.m.) AND Take #304 Fresno State (-12) over Idaho (10 p.m.)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FUTURES PLAYS
8-Unit Play. Take Arkansas 'Over' 5.5 Wins (-130)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy

7-Unit Play. Take #182 North Texas -4.5 over SMU (Saturday, September 1st at 7:30 PM ET)
Take North Texas ATS as my 7-Unit CFB Smash for Saturday night. This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and I have the Mean Green winning this game y 13+ points Saturday. The Mean Green return 17 players including 9 on offense including their starting quarterback so you can expect them to be very strong offensively again this season. The Mean Green averaged 46 ppg at home last season while putting up 513 ypg and their offense will not miss a step this season. SMU was one of the worst defensive teams in the country last season with opponents averaging 46.5 ppg against them on the road and 516.7 yards per game against them. SMU was blown out 10-51 by the same Louisiana Tech team that the Mean Green beat on the road 24-23 last season. This is also a revenge game for North Texas after losing to SMU last season on the road because of costly turnovers, so you can expect the Mean Green to take better care of the ball at home Saturday night. SMU also returns just 6 players on the offensive side of the ball and they are just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Mean Green are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games played between these two teams. Play North Texas ATS.

5-Unit Play. Take #217 Miami FL -3.5 over LSU (Sunday, September 2nd at 7:30 PM ET)
Take Miami FL ATS as my 5-Unit CFB Smash for Sunday night. This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and I have the Hurricanes winning this game by 10+ points Sunday night. The Hurricanes return 14 starts 7 on offense and 7 on defense including their quarterback while LSU returns just 10 starts with 5 on each side of the ball and not their starting quarterback from last season. This Canes team has never looked better and I expect them to get off to a quick start on both sides of the ball that will silence the crowd in Dallas. The Hurricanes were one of only 22 teams in all of college football to allow less than 20 ppg last year during the regular season and you can expect this defense to be hungry for the turnover chain again this season. The Canes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played during the month of September and the Tigers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against an ACC opponent. Play Miami FL ATS.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman

7-Unit Play. Take #201 West Virginia (-10) over Tennessee (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)

This game is being played at a neutral site in Charlotte. I think that West Virginia will come out strong and they will be very motivated to get a win over an SEC opponent. The Mountaineers had a tough end to last season, losing their final three games. They also lost their big nonconference neutral site game last year when they lost to Virginia Tech. I think WVU is very motivated to get off to a better start this year. Quarterback Will Grier is one of the best in the Big 12 and he threw for 3,490 yards and 34 touchdowns last season. The Mountaineers have one of the best pairs of wide receivers in college football with Gary Jennings and David Sills. I don't think the Vols will be able to stop them. Tennessee has a brand new coach in Jeremy Pruitt. This is his first head coaching job anywhere and this is his first game on the sideline. This Volunteers team was terrible last year and slid to just a 4-8 season. Pruitt has a big rebuilding job this season. This team lost a lot of talent and it is going to take some time for Pruitt to get this team competitive. Tennessee finished last year on a 2-7 ATS slide. The Mountaineers are a big favorite here for a reason. Their high-powered and high-scoring offense will help them pull away in the second half and turn this one into a blowout. Go with West Virginia.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point sports

7-Unit Play. Take #201 West Virginia (-10) over Tennessee (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
West Virginia is being led by Heisman candidate Will Grier and they will be too much offensively for Tennessee to keep pace with. Grier and wide receiver David Sills are both preseason All-Americans and they will cause havoc all afternoon long. Tennessee is going to try and control the clock in this game as they know that they need to limit the Mountaineers possessions. West Virginia went out this offseason and beefed up their defense with some grad transfers (Kenny Bigelow and Jabril Robinson). Look for this years version of the West VA defense to be much improved over last years side. In the end the West Virginia Mountaineers are going to be just too much offensively. Look for West VA to open up a double-figure lead in the first half of this game and to win by at least 17 points. Our final prediction for this game is 37-17.

3-Unit Play. Take #211 Michigan (PK) over Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
Michigan is just plain better than Notre Dame. This is a team that is led by one of the best coaches in College Football, regardless of what the pundits say, and they will have one of the best defenses in the country. Michigan returns nine starters on the defensive side of the ball and they will make life absolutely miserable for Notre Dame. Every fan across the nation is going to be watching this game, and it will be quite entertaining, but in the end, Harbaugh will find continued success versus non-conference opponents as he is 9-0 in his last nine games against teams outside of the Big10.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Tierney

ADDING

West Virginia -10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny White

Arizona Over 60
Arizona State Over 54.5
Arkon +26

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Josh Nagel

Ole Miss +2.5
Louisville +24.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Zach Cimini

Arizona State -18
Notre Dame -1
Arizona Under 60.5
South Alabama +10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve OH (MLB)
Boston -152
LA Dodgers -172
Mets +130

[dawggy]

From Arthur Ralph Sports.

Super PK SL w/Poncedleon-125, Blue Ribbon NOTRE Dame -PK CFB FREE play SAT: KC Royals w/Filmyer PK