Friday 8-31-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 12


Montreal (2-8) @ Ottawa (6-3) (-16.5, 51.5)— Ottawa is already 2-0 vs the Alouettes this season, winning first meeting 28-18 in Montreal, then 24-17 here three weeks ago- road team covered both those games. Montreal snapped a 6-game losing skid by upsetting Toronto at home LW; Alouettes are 1-4 SU on road; they covered last four away games, with last three road losses by 17-7-16 points. Ottawa is 5-0 when they allow 21 of fewer points, 1-3 when they allow 24+; RedBlacks are 3-1 SU at home, 1-2 as a home favorite. Under is 4-1 in Ottawa road games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Friday, August 31

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UTAH ST (6 - 7) at MICHIGAN ST (10 - 3) - 8/31/2018, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SYRACUSE (4 - 8) at W MICHIGAN (6 - 6) - 8/31/2018, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) against MAC opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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W KENTUCKY (6 - 7) at WISCONSIN (13 - 1) - 8/31/2018, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W KENTUCKY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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COLORADO (5 - 7) vs. COLORADO ST (7 - 6) - 8/31/2018, 9:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 2-0 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 2-0 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO ST (10 - 3) at STANFORD (9 - 5) - 8/31/2018, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-0 straight up against STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARMY (10 - 3) at DUKE (7 - 6) - 8/31/2018, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DUKE is 1-1 against the spread versus ARMY over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 1-1 straight up against ARMY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 1

Trend Report

Friday, August 31

Syracuse @ Western Michigan
Syracuse
Syracuse is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Syracuse's last 19 games

Western Michigan
Western Michigan is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
Western Michigan is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

Monmouth-New Jersey @ Eastern Michigan
Monmouth-New Jersey
Monmouth-New Jersey is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

Eastern Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Eastern Michigan's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Eastern Michigan's last 10 games at home

Utah State @ Michigan State
Utah State
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Utah State's last 11 games on the road
Utah State is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games

Michigan State
Michigan State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Michigan State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Army @ Duke
Army
Army is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Army is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Duke
Duke is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Duke's last 11 games

San Diego State @ Stanford
San Diego State
San Diego State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
San Diego State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road

Stanford
Stanford is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Stanford is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Western Kentucky @ Wisconsin
Western Kentucky
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Western Kentucky's last 8 games
Western Kentucky is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games

Wisconsin
Wisconsin is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
Wisconsin is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home

Portland State @ Nevada
Portland State
Portland State is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games on the road
Portland State is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games

Nevada
Nevada is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Nevada is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

Colorado @ Colorado State
Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Colorado's last 10 games when playing Colorado State
Colorado is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Colorado State

Colorado State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Colorado State's last 10 games when playing Colorado
Colorado State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 1

Friday, August 31/Saturday, September 1 best 13 games

Colorado won its last three games with Colorado State 17-3/44-7/27-24; Buffaloes are 12-8 as favorites under MacIntyre, but were just 1-4 LY. Buffs’ QB Montez has 15 career starts; they’ve got only 10 starters back, four on offense. Colorado State (last week’s info). Under Bobo, Rams are 6-8 vs spread out of conference; they covered nine of last 12 games as an underdog. Last three year, Pac-12 teams are 18-15-1 vs spread when facing a Mountain West foe.

Northern Illinois (+3) upset Iowa 30-27 in last meeting five years ago; Huskies covered four of last five games vs Big 14 opponents. NIU has 14 starters back, 8 on offense- their OL has 111 starters back. Huskies are 10-3 vs spread as home underdogs under Carey; their QB is a sop with only 7 career starts. Iowa is 12-22-1 vs spread in its last 35 home games; they’ve got 13 starters back, 7 on offense. Hawkeyes’ QB is a junior with 13 starts. Last three years, MAC teams are 19-10-1 vs spread when playing a Big 14 opponent.

Maryland (+17) went to Austin LY and shocked Texas 51-41, running ball for 263 yards, but Terps had a terrible off-season, with a player dying in conditioning workouts. Hard to tell what effect that will have, but it won’t be good. Maryland is 5-7 vs spread at home with Durkin; their OL has 105 returning starts, but their QB has almost no experience. Texas covered four of five on road in Herman’s first year; Longhorns have two experienced QB’s- their OL has 102 starts. Last four years, Big X teams are 6-5-1 vs spread when playing a Big 14 opponent.

Vanderbilt won its last three games with Middle Tennessee, winning 47-24 (-3) in last meeting here in ‘16. Commodores have 12 starters back, 7 on offense- their senior QB Shurmur (30 starts) is son of the NJ Giants’ coach. Vandy is 13-14 vs spread at home under Mason, 4-8 when a home favorite. MTSU has 17 starters back, 9 on defense; senior QB Stockstill (32 starts) is the coach’s son. Blue Raiders are 6-10-1 in last 17 games as road underdogs. Last three years, SEC teams are 13-6-1 vs spread against Conference USA opponents.

Arizona (-1.5) beat BYU 18-16 in last meeting two years ago, on a neutral field. Arizona debut for Kevin Sumlin, who was 13-19-1 as home favorite in his last job (Tex A&M). Since 2012, Wildcats are 11-13-1 as home favorites; they’ve got 16 starters back, 9 on defense- their mobile junior QB Tate has 9 starts. Arizona’s OL has 66 returning starts. BYU has senior QB with 21 starts; their OL has only 39 returning starts. Cougars have 14 starters back, 7 on both sides of ball; they’re 7-3 as road underdogs under Sitake.

Long trip into SEC country (Atlanta) for Washington squad that has senior QB with 39 career starts, an OL with 97 career starts. Under Petersen, U-Dub is 17-14 vs spread away from home. Huskies have 17 starters back, 9 on defense. Since 2014, Auburn is just 5-14-1 vs spread in out of conference games; Tigers have junior QB with 17 starts- their OL has only 40 returning starts. Auburn has 13 returning starters, 7 on defense. Last seven years, SEC teams are 8-3 vs Pac-12 opponents, but Pac-12 teams won both matchups LY.

Ole Miss-Tex Tech haven’t met since 2009; last two years, Rebels were 2-6 vs spread outside the SEC. Ole Miss has 15 starters back, 8 on offense- their OL has 102 returning starts. Rebels’ QB is a senior with only 5 career starts. Tech has a new QB; they’ve got 10 starters back on defense- their OL has 93 returning starts, but only one starter is a senior. Under Kingsbury, Red Raiders are 9-8-1 vs spread out of conference. Last seven years, Big X teams are 11-10 vs spread when facing an SEC opponent. This game is in Houston, so Tech will have crowd edge.

West Virginia has 12 starters back, 7 on offense; their OL has 65 returning starts, the senior QB has 16 career starts. Mountaineers covered only one of last nine neutral field games. Tennessee has a new coach, their 5th coach in 11 years. Since 2012, Vols are 12-15 vs spread out of conference. Tennessee’s OL has 51 returning starts; their grad transfer QB had 13 career starts at Stanford. Last seven years, Big X teams are 11-10 vs spread when facing an SEC opponent. This game is in Charlotte, NC, so crowd support should be fairly even.

North Carolina QB Surratt is suspended here for selling his sneakers; some of UNC’s offensive line are also out. Cal (+12) won 35-30 in Chapel Hill last season, throwing for 363 yards. Tar Heels have 13 starters back, 8 on defense; their OL has only 19 returning starts- since 2015, UNC is 10-4 vs spread on road. California covered nine of its last 12 home games; they’ve got 18 starters back, 10 on offense. Bears’ junior QB has 12 starts; their OL has 76 returning starts. Last four years, ACC teams are 8-3 vs spread when facing a Pac-12 team.

Home side won last four Michigan-Notre Dame games; teams last met in 2014. Irish won 31-0 in last meeting here. Wolverines are 6-8 vs spread on road under Harbaugh; their new QB is Ole Miss transfer Patterson, who started 10 games at Ole Miss. Michigan has 17 returning starters, 9 on defense; their OL has 54 returning starts. Notre Dame has 15 returning starters, 9 on defense; their OL has 65 returning starters, their QB has 12. Since 2011, Irish are 14-11 vs spread at home- they covered their last three games as a home underdog.

Alabama hasn’t announced their starting QB yet; obviously both are good. Crimson Tide covered four of its last five season openers. Alabama has 103 returning starts on its OL, but has only three returning starters on defense- they’ve got injury problems at linebacker. Louisville is 6-4 vs spread in its last ten games as an underdog; Cardinals have a new QB- their OL has 79 returning starts, their defense has only four returning starters. Last three years, ACC teams are 20-14-1 vs spread when playing SEC opponents. This game is in Orlando.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 1

Friday, August 31

Utah State @ Michigan State

Game 141-142
August 31, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah State
77.858
Michigan State
92.161
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan State
by 14 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan State
by 23 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Utah State
(+23 1/2); Under

Syracuse @ Western Michigan

Game 143-144
August 31, 2018 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Syracuse
80.332
Western Michigan
78.612
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Syracuse
by 1 1/2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Syracuse
by 6
64 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Western Michigan
(+6); Under

Western Kentucky @ Wisconsin

Game 145-146
August 31, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Western Kentucky
66.124
Wisconsin
110.286
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wisconsin
by 44
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wisconsin
by 34
51
Dunkel Pick:
Wisconsin
(-34); Over

Colorado State @ Colorado

Game 147-148
August 31, 2018 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado State
71.613
Colorado
85.867
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado
by 14
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
by 7 1/2
61 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Colorado
(-7 1/2); Over

San Diego St @ Stanford

Game 149-150
August 31, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego St
84.950
Stanford
102.803
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Stanford
by 18
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Stanford
by 14 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Stanford
(-14 1/2); Over

Army @ Duke

Game 159-160
August 31, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Army
82.188
Duke
102.259
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Duke
by 20
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Duke
by 13 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Duke
(-13 1/2); Over

Monmouth @ Eastern Michigan

Game 237-238
August 31, 2018 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Monmouth
61.466
Eastern Michigan
75.401
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Eastern Michigan
by 14
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Eastern Michigan
by 16 1/2
60 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Monmouth
(+16 1/2); Under

Portland St @ Nevada

Game 239-240
August 31, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland St
51.405
Nevada
69.809
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Nevada
by 18 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nevada
by 24
71
Dunkel Pick:
Portland St
(+24); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2018 Independents Preview
Marc Lawrence

Declaration Of Independence

During its first six years of being an independent team BYU won 52 games, with never fewer than 8 victories in any one season. Last year, however, the Cougars’ fortune suffered a major plummet, winning just 4 games behind an offense that ranked that ranked No. 118 in the nation – worse than Kansas, Rice and Ball State. It was BYU’s first losing season since 2004, making them a true “mission team” - in more ways than one - this campaign.

If QB Tanner Magnum is good enough to fend off true freshman Zach Wilson the Cougars could find themselves bowling by season’s end. If not head coach Kalani Sitake could be issued a declaration of departure. Stay tuned.

Ups And Downs

The ranks of football independents have increased and decreased with each passing season since 2011, when BYU left the Mountain West Conference.

It increased by two teams in 2013 when the Western Athletic Conference dropped football, paving the way for the inclusion of New Mexico and Idaho. Then is 2014 it lost two teams when Idaho and New Mexico State became football only members of the Sun Belt Conference. In 2015 Navy bolted for the American Athletic Conference as a football-only entrant. 2016 saw the addition of UMass, with New Mexico State returning in 2017. The new kids on the block, Liberty, join the Independents in 2018 as the revolving door continues to swing like a turnstile.

Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

ARMY (Offense – 6/2, Defense – 8/1, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: MARCHING TO A DIFFERENT DRUM

Thanks to a 10-win effort last year, just the second of all-time, Army celebrated consecutive winning seasons for the first time since 1990. Yet they managed it despite going backwards on both sides of the ball. The formula was simple: The Black Knights were the No. 1 team in the nation in Rushing Offense, as well as the No. 3 team in Red Zone Defense. This season they will put a new quarterback behind a rebuilding offensive front line. And while the defense returns a good portion of last year’s starters, it loses its two best playmakers in DE John Voit and LB Alex Aukerman. Having to tackle only 3 bowlers this season is a good thing. Facing only one losing foe away from home is not.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Last year was only the second time that Army defeated Navy and won a bowl game in the same year.

PASS

BYU (Offense – *7/1, Defense – 7/3, 62 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: MISSION TEAM

A combination of youth and inexperience, with 25 members of the two-deep missing time with injuries, contributed to a rare losing season for the Cougars last year. It marked their first losing campaign since 2004, making them a true “mission team” in every sense of the word this season. And it could well be lights-out for head coach Kalani Sitake should BYU continue to regress on both sides of the ball for a third-straight year under his watch. Worse, only four foes on last year’s itinerary owned winning seasons the previous year. More concerning is that in two seasons under Sitake, the Cougars have forgotten how to pass the football. Fortunately, senior QB Tanner Magnum returns after a ruptured Achilles tendon curtailed his season last year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: QB Magnum passed for 3,377 yards in 2015 – Bronco Mendenhall’s final season as BYU head coach.

PLAY ON: vs. Utah State (10/5) - *KEY

LIBERTY (Offense – *9/3, Defense – 7/2, 44 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: NEW KIDS ON THE BLOCK

Liberty makes its FBS debut in 2018 and if the name sounds familiar, it should. The Flames torched Baylor, 48-45, as 34-point dogs in Waco in their season opener last year. The good news is head coach Turner Gill, the former Nebraska star QB, has had a winning record each of the six years he’s been in Lynchburg. The bad news is he was 25-49 at two other FBS schools (Buffalo and Kansas) before becoming the lead Flame. Gill did mange to win the MAC title in 2008. He also beat Coastal Carolina when the Chanticleers were No. 1 in the FCS at the time. And for what it’s worth, LU returns 81% of its overall production from last season, seventh in the FBS. Bon voyage.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Conference USA and the Sun Belt turned down Liberty, the nations’ largest private university, for admission.

PASS

NEW MEXICO STATE (Offense – 6/3, Defense – 9/4, 49 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: WE CAN DO THIS

Doug Martin was another head coach on the hot seat last season, sporting a 10-38 record in four seasons with NMSU. Last year’s surprising 7-win bowl effort staved off the inevitable, though. It was the first bowl season in 57 years for the Aggies – the longest drought of all FBS teams – and it was capped off with a win over Utah State in the Arizona Bowl. With that, Martin will finally have a chance to rely on a defense that improved over 100 YPG last season as just about everyone’s back for DC Frank Spaziani. So dramatic was the improvement that the Aggies yielded 500 yards in only two games last campaign – after coughing up a nickel or more 26 times in five previous seasons under Martin’s direction. Best of all the Aggies will go up against easiest schedule of all FBS schools in 2018 with foes going 54-91 (.372) last season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Recently graduated four-year starting RB Larry Rose III rushed for 4,558 yards and 37 TDs in his career at NMSU.

PLAY ON: vs. Georgia Southern (10/20)

NOTRE DAME (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 9/3, 46 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: NOTRE LAME

As expected, the Irish bounced back from a disastrous 4-win effort in 2016 to a 10-win campaign last season. That cleansed a sour taste left from an underachieving November – a pattern that head coach Brian Kelly has recently developed (see Stat You Will Like below). Meanwhile, the Dame was hit extra hard by offseason losses with 3 NFL defections (among 4 players selected in the draft, including two All-American 1st-rounders from the left side of the offensive line), 12 returning starters and 14 players from the 2-deep now gone. In addition, five senior starters from the defense also graduated. Kelly will turn back to QB Brandon Wimbush, who will need to find receivers from a depleted unit. Despite Kelly’s insistence that this could be one of his best squads at Notre Dame, we three Hail Mary’s are in order.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Since 2011, Kelly has won only 10 of 24 games played from Halloween on out.

PLAY ON: vs. Stanford (9/29)

UMASS (Offense – *10/4, Defense – 6/1, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: SOUND THE CHARGES

Last year’s 0-6 start lowered the Minutemen’s mark to 2-22 SU in the first six games of the season under HC Mark Whipple. The good news, though, is UMass rallied to close 4-2, lending promise to the 2018 season ahead. However, they’ll need to overcome a death-knell-like 3-14 record in one-possession games under Whipple in order to turn the corner. Behind a loaded offense that returns QB Andrew Ford (22 TDs and 4 INTs last season) and nearly his entire front wall, the turn signal has been activated. As our ‘Stat You Will Like’ below indicates, last year’s unit left a mark in school history behind a bevy of youngsters that witnessed 33% of all starts by underclassmen. Sound the alert... here come the Minutemen.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Minutemen gained more yards than they allowed last year for the first time since becoming an FBS team in 2012.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2018 Pac-12 Preview
Marc Lawrence

We’re Back

According to the Pac-12, a total of 178 starters, who started at least half of his team’s games or a majority of games at a specific position, return to Pac-12 football squads in 2018. That’s out of a possible 288 (including placekickers and punters) for an average of 14.8 starters returning per team.

Among those 178 returning starters are a number of key players, including 10 first-team and 12 second-team All-Pac-12 performers. Arizona, California, and Washington each return the most with 18 starters, followed by Oregon State with 16. Washington State returns the fewest starters with 10.

Newbies

Five new coaches enter the league this season. It’s the highest number of new coaches on the sidelines in one season for the Pac-12.

UCLA’s Chip Kelly returns for his second stint in the Pac-12. Kelly posted a 46-7 record in four seasons at Oregon (2009-12) and led the Ducks to the 2010 BCS title game. Other new coaches include Arizona’s Kevin Sumlin (averaged 8.7 wins over 10 seasons), Arizona State’s Herm Edwards (last coached in the NFL from 2001-08), Oregon’s Mario Cristobal (won three national titles as a player and an assistant coach), Oregon State’s Jonathan Smith (returns to his alma mater making his head coaching debut).

Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

ARIZONA (Offense – *7/2, Defense – 9/1, 51 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: A NEW TATE OF MIND

As is the undoing of many a successful man, it appears Rich’s rod likely sealed his fate. Such was the case when Arizona canned Rich Rodriguez, and his ghastly $6M salary, for sexual misconduct. Enter Kevin Sumlin and his in-your-face spread playbook, custom-designed for new phenom QB Khalil Tate, who burst on the scene in October last season. After being inserted into the starting lineup, Tate recorded a run of 70 more yards in each of his first four starts while earning an unprecedented four straight Pac-12 Player of the Week awards. Safe to say, Sumlin figures to utilize Tate to the max – much like he did with dual-threat QB Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M – to operate the Cats’ potent 3rd ranked rushing attack. “He’s moving from being an athlete that is a quarterback, to being a quarterback that's an athlete,” said Kevin Sumlin.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Freshmen started 25.2% of all Wildcats’ games last season, the 3rd most in the nation.

PLAY AGAINST: at Washington State (11/17)

ARIZONA STATE (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 4/1, 42 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: IN-AND-OUT BURGER

The release of contentious head coach Todd Graham was considered a stunner. However, it was surpassed in magnitude when ASU brought in long-retired and longtime NFL head coach Herm Edwards, who hasn’t coached in college in 30 years – and owned a 54-74 record as an NFL mentor. Yeah, head scratching, to say the least. So as we see it, a 46-game winner over the past six years was replaced with a zero-game coach over the last nine years. Smells like a lobbyist struck that deal. Meanwhile, heavy attrition hit a soft front seven. Against the backdrop of a new staff, new schemes and revamped lines of scrimmage, is a schedule laced with nine bowlers. Sorry, but we don’t see this experiment lasting long.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Arizona State ranked No. 120 in passing yards allowed in 2017 after ranking dead last (No. 128) the previous two seasons.

PLAY AGAINST: at Arizona (11/24)

CALIFORNIA (Offense – *10/3, Defense – 7/1, 56 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: GOOD NEWS BEARS

New coach Justin Wilcox’s defense lived up to its hype as the former DC guru improved the Bears’ stop-unit by 88 YPG, its best overall effort since 2011. The offense, though, slipped mightily. Through it all, Cal came up one game shy of bowl eligibility despite the fact that freshmen accounted for 20.2% of all starts last season (only six teams started more). QB Ross Bowers is the Pac-12’s leading returner in passing yardage after throwing for 3,039 yards in 2017 (flash: he’s being pushed by South Carolina transfer QB Brandon McIlwain), and the running backs are deep and talented. Operating behind all five starters returning to the offensive line should help them blossom. Two other positives: Cal finished 37th nationally in turnover margin behind all the young talent, and the Bears will take on the 5th easiest schedule of all Power 5 schools in 2018 with foes going 76-77 (.497) last season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Cal held Stanford, USC, Washington and Washington State below its season average in points and total yards last season.

PLAY ON: at USC (11/10)

COLORADO (Offense – *5/3, Defense – 7/2, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: THIRSTING FOR MORE

Like a mirage to a water-starved victim crossing the desert, the Buffaloes’ 8-2 conference effort in 2016 surely looked like the real deal. After all, they had gone a measly 3-33 in conference play the previous four seasons. And then lo and behold, a 2-7 record in Pac-12 frays last year found them free falling again, ending the season with a losing record for the 11th time in the last 12 years. Things went so sideways that Colorado had forced a turnover in each of its previous 30 home games – the longest skein in the nation – until they hosted USC in their final game at Boulder last year. QB Steven Montez is one of only fours starters back on offense. Pass the canteen.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Colorado is 10-2 ATS in Last Home Games, including 7-0 ATS versus sub .700 opponents.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Oregon St (10/27) – *KEY as a favorite

OREGON (Offense – *7/3, Defense – 7/2, 43 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: CRYSTAL BALL DIGS CRISTOBAL

Now with its third coach in as many seasons, the Ducks will soldier on under another new head coach in Mario Cristobal, an Oregon assistant last year and former boss at Florida International. The good news is that Oregon is 37-14 since 1995 the first season under a new head coach, including 24-3 at home. Better news is the Ducks will face the easiest Power 5 schedule in 2018 according to the NCAA, as foes this season were just 65-87 (.428) last year. Aside from a strong initial recruiting class, Cristobal welcomes back junior QB Justin Herbert. The 6’ 6” 225-lb future NFL signal-caller went 6-2 last season before being shut down with a shoulder injury. It’s no coincidence OU led the nation in scoring (49 PPG) when Herbert was in the lineup. It’s important to note that Cristobal is extremely well liked by the players, who campaigned for his hire after Willie Taggart bolted for Florida State.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The straight-up winner ‘in the stats’ is 24-1 in Oregon games the last two years, including 13-0 last season.

PASS

OREGON STATE (Offense – 7/4, Defense – 8/1, 45 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: MAPPING OUT A NEW PLAN

After two-and-a-half years the Gary Andersen experiment is over following a 7-23 record, including a paltry 3-18 mark in Pac-12 games. Mike Riley is returning to Oregon State – only he will be joining Jonathan Smith’s staff as assistant head coach. Riley previously was the Oregon State head coach from 2003 to 2014, and also 1997 to ’98. Riley was fired Nov. 25 as head coach at Nebraska after going 19-19 over three seasons. Smith, a former Beavers quarterback, was a graduate assistant at Oregon State under Riley in 2003. If it sounds like a well-knit Beaver connection, it is. The key to getting back on the map will be finding a way to win conference games as OSU has dropped 26 of its last 29 Pac-12 performances.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Beavers have been out-yarded in each of their last 19 away games.

PASS

STANFORD (Offense – *9/5, Defense – 6/1, 63 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: DOWN ON THE FARM

While Stanford returns 9 starters on offense, the fact of the matter is they lost players to 4 NFL defections, plus 16 players from the 2-deep are gone. Only seven FBS schools lost more starters from last year’s depth charts, and only four schools saw more players leave early for the NFL. Nonetheless, the Cardinal have captured four Pac-12 championship games since 2012 under David Shaw. The big story is star RB Bryce Love’s decision to return to Stanford rather than leaving early for the NFL. The Heisman Trophy hopeful fuels a resurgence of offensive starters back for the Cardinal – sans OC Mike Bloomgren, who leaves to take over the head coaching duties at Rice. QB K.J. Costello also returns after a strong second half last year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The 405 YPG allowed by Stanford last season was the most ever under HC David Shaw.

PLAY ON: vs. USC (9/8)

UCLA (Offense – 5/2, Defense – 7/2, 38 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: NEXT MAN UP

On the 20th anniversary of its last Pac-12 conference championship, the UCLA brass has turned its football fortunes over to Chip Kelly, the former NFL and Oregon head coach, where he went 46-7 with three conference titles and an appearance in the BCS championship game with the Ducks. The biggest task at hand is filling the shoes set by record-setting QB Josh Rosen. Rest assured, Kelly will find his man. The other concern is patching a rush defense that was the worst for a Power 5 program in nearly 20 years. Remember this on your way out: since 1965 UCLA has had six consecutive non-winning seasons. They are 50-22-1 SU the following year while producing a winning record every season. Just sayin’.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chip Kelly is 28-1 SU against sub .800 college football opponents.

PLAY AGAINST: at Arizona State (11/10)

USC (Offense – 7/4, Defense – 7/1, 52 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: GREEN EGGS AND SAM

True freshman QB J.T. Daniels is expected to be behind center for the defending Pac-12 champion Trojans this season, replacing redshirt sophomore Sam Darnold, who left for the NFL. The only other true freshman signal-caller to start for USC was Matt Barkley who, like Daniels, hailed from Mater Dei High School in California. Note: Daniels carried a 4.16 Grade Average and graduated after only three years in high school. Last year’s 11-win campaign was especially impressive considering USC did not have a bye week. The Trojans can thank a Red Zone Defense that ranked No. 4 in the nation, but they were also the 5th worst team the nation in Most Penalties last season. It’s a good thing that head coach Clay Helton has out-recruited every team in the conference. He loses a 4,000-yard passer, a 1,500-yard rusher and a 1,100-yard receiver. Ouch.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: USC is 16-0 SU in the Coliseum under head coach Clay Helton.

PLAY AGAINST: at UCLA (11/17)

UTAH (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 6/1, 55 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: WINNINGHAM U

After appearing in every College Football Playoff ranking since its inception in 2014, the Utes extended the streak through the first three weeks in 2017 before finally bowing out. It’s a testament to head coach Kyle Whittingham, the holder of the highest bowl winning percentage (.917, 11-1) of any coach in NCAA history. It was confirmed in the NFL draft this season when Utah led the Pac-12 with eight selections, tying for the third-most in the country. QB Tyler Huntley and a handful of receiving targets are back in 2018, as well as four of last year’s five starting offensive linemen. They make up 18 full-or-part time starters from last season’s bowl-winning squad. Finally, former head coach Gary Andersen is also back as a DL coach.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Kyle Whittingham is 17-4 SU against the other four Power Five conferences.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Arizona (10/12)

WASHINGTON (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 9/1, 55 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: LOCKED AND LOADED

Chris Petersen planted the seeds for what may the most talented squad he’ll have in his tenure at Washington. It all started in 2015 when his “young as hell” Huskies were force-fed with plenty of playing time. All of those underclassmen are now upper classmen and as a result, U-Dub welcomes a bevy of returning starters for the 2018 season. At the helm is 4th-year senior starting QB Jake Browning, who has tossed for a school record 9,104 yards while completing over 64% of his pass attempts and accounting for 90 touchdowns. In addition, 3-years starting RB Myles Gaskin is back with 4,055 rushing yards and 49 TDs. Add a fearsome front seven on defense and the Huskies appear headed to the playoffs once again this season – especially going up against the 4th easiest schedule of all Power 5 schools in 2018 with foes going 73-80 (.477) last season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chris Petersen’s .816 winning percentage is the 2nd highest among all active head coaches with at least 13 years of experience.

PLAY ON: vs. Arizona State (9/22)

WASHINGTON STATE (Offense – 4/2, Defense – 6/1, 41 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: MAKING THE BEST OF A LOUSY SITUATION

The tragic suicide of heir-apparent backup QB Tyler Hilinski in January left fractured hearts and souls in the Washington State program. He was scheduled to fill the shoes of 4-year starting QB Luke Falk, who left with a jaw-dropping 14,881 passing yards on 68.3% completions and 119 TDs. In addition WSU’s top two WRs have transferred out of the program. On the defensive side of the ball, the Cougars lose Hercules Mata’afa, who led the Pac-12 in sacks and tackles for a loss last season. Making matters worse, the OL ranked No. 126 in sacks allowed last season. Meanwhile, former Minnesota head coach Tracy Claeys is the new defensive coordinator. He reunites with Cougar defensive line coach Jeff Phelps, who coached alongside Claeys at Minnesota from 2011-16.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cougars are 10-1 ATS as conference road dogs under Mike Leach vs. winning foes off a SUATS win.

PLAY ON: vs. California (11/3)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Essentials - Week 1
Tony Mejia

The first weekend of the college football season featured only two games where FBS teams squared off against one another and produced an upset right out of the gate.

Hawai’I had a great weekend, capturing the Little League World Series less than 24 hours after its largest university held off 17-point favorite Colorado State to start 1-0 in Mountain West play. Wyoming won its first game post-Josh Allen thanks to an impressive defensive effort in a 29-7 victory at New Mexico State.

We’re now off and running with every other team set to debut in games scheduled daily beginning Thursday.

Here’s a look at the games I’m most excited about between Friday and Monday, a top ten that you can’t miss and should be wagering on if so inclined.

Friday, Aug. 31

Western Kentucky at Wisconsin (-37.5/52.5), 9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Badgers nearly ran the table last season, losing in the Big Ten Championship when they failed to get one last scoring drive against Ohio State. With Jonathan Taylor back to run behind a loaded offensive line, hopes are high in Madison. The Hilltoppers lost five of six to end Mike Sanford’s first season with a thud, losing to Georgia State in the Care Bowl. They’ll play five running backs and are breaking in a new starting quarterback in senior Drew Eckels, so keep that in mind if you’re tempted to take the points. The Badgers will begin answering the question of whether they have the firepower at receiver with Quintez Cephus and Danny Davis both suspended.

San Diego State at Stanford (-14.5/49), 9:00 p.m. ET, FS1: After a tough loss at USC last September, the Cardinal dropped out of the national title conversation by losing at the Aztecs as an eight-point favorite. SDSU’s star running back Rashaad Penny is now with the Seahawks but there are high hopes that Juwan Washington can follow adequately in his footsteps. He hasn’t even been practicing due to the risk of injury, so Stanford will have to deal with a fresh back. Counterpart Bryce Love should already be playing in the pros, so we’ll see if his gamble to stay in school pays off beyond getting a degree in human biology to realize his other dream of becoming a pediatrician. Special kid. The Aztecs will have a strong plan in pace with Rocky Long having so many defensive starters back, so it will be on K.J. Costello to ensure the Stanford passing game takes advantage after failing to capitalize on the room to succeed Love’s presence provides.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon

Aug 31 '18, 7:00 PM in 34m
NCAA-F | Army vs Duke
Play on: OVER 45 -115

FREE PLAY on Army/Duke over 45 -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

Aug 31 '18, 8:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Angels vs Astros
Play on: Angels +182 at YouWager

1* on Angels +182

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels

Aug 31 '18, 9:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | San Diego State vs Stanford
Play on: UNDER 49½ -110

Free Play on San Diego State vs Stanford under 49½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Aug 31 '18, 7:00 PM in 34m
NCAA-F | Utah State vs Michigan State
Play on: Utah State +23½ -105 at Bovada

1* Free Play on Utah State +23½ -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Aug 31 '18, 7:00 PM in 34m
NCAA-F | Army vs Duke
Play on: Army +14 -110 at BMaker

1* Free Pick on Army Black Knights +14
The Blue Devils are getting way too much respect in their home opener against Army. These two teams played last year late in the season and the Black Knights won 21-16 as a 3-point home dog. They also faced off in 2016 at Duke and the Blue Devils only won that contest by a final score of 13-6.
There's no question that Duke should be favored, but no way should they be laying two touchdowns in a game it's no sure thing they win outright. That's right. Army has a legit shot at winning this game.
A lot of people are going to look at the fact that Army only has 3 starters back on offense, but we have seen over the years that these military schools can excel without a ton of talent coming back. Don't be surprised if the Black Knights are able to move the ball against this Duke defense.
The other big key here with the spread and it being too high, is it's unlikely the Blue Devils will put up a big number. Aside from the fact that they have scored a total of just 29 points in the previous two meetings combined, Army has 8 starters back on the defensive side of the ball and should resemble their 2016 defense, which only gave up 19.8 ppg and 291 ypg. Take Army!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info Plays

Aug 31 '18, 9:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Western Kentucky vs Wisconsin
Play on: OVER 51 -110

1* Free Play on Western Kentucky vs Wisconsin over 51 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Aug 31 '18, 9:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Western Kentucky vs Wisconsin
Play on: Wisconsin -36½ -105 at 5Dimes

1* Free Pick on Wisconsin -36½ -105