Monday 9-3-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369858

    #31
    Ballpark Figures - Week 23
    Joe Williams

    Streaky Teams (entering Monday)

    Wins and Losses Streak
    Arizona 3-7 past 10 games overall
    Chicago Cubs 10-2 past 12 games overall
    Kansas City 7-1 past eight games overall
    L.A. Dodgers 8-1 past nine games overall
    Tampa Bay 11-2 past 13 games overall

    Over/Under Streak
    Arizona Under 9-0 past nine games
    Kansas City Over 5-2-3 past 10 games
    L.A. Dodgers Under 5-0 past five games
    Pittsburgh Under 6-0 past six games
    Tampa Bay Over 6-2-2 past 10 games

    Snakes Alive

    The Arizona Diamondbacks are on a killer 'under' 9-0 run, and each of their past three games against the Dodgers ended up in a 3-2 loss. Arizona is too good of an offense to have a power outage like they've been having lately. They have scored three or fewer runs in nine of their past 10 outings, averaging just 2.3 runs per game during the span. Luckily they have yielded just 2.9 yards per outing during the 10-game span. The Snakes will be back in action on Monday at home facing the struggling Padres, a team 30 games under .500 and one which ranks 28th in the league in runs scored (529) through 139 games.

    The 'under' is 6-1 in San Diego's past seven games against a right-handed starter, and the under s 4-0 in their past four against a starter with a WHIP over 1.30, which is rather odd. That's where the under trends stop, however. The 'over' is 5-2 in their past seven on the road vs. RHP, 7-3 in their past 10 road games overall and 4-0 in Bryan Mitchell's past four outings. In addition, the over is 4-1 in Mitchell's past five outings inside the division, while going 7-3 in their past 10 on the road against teams with a winning overall record, too.

    For Arizona, it's all under all the time. The under is 8-0 in their past eight inside the division, while going 7-2 in their past nine games at home. The under has connected in four straight against a right-handed pitcher, too, while going 7-0-1 in their past eight games following a loss. The under is 18-7-1 in their past 26 games overall, and 5-1-1 in Zack Godley's past seven at home against a team with a losing record. However, the over is 5-2-1 in his past eight showings against teams with a losing overall record for some reason. Luckily, the way Arizona's offense has been going, that might not be a problem.

    Looking Ahead

    Monday, Sept. 3


    There are plenty of afternoon games on Labor Day. None might be as important as the Cubs and Brewers battling at 2:10 p.m. ET at Miller Park in Milwaukee. Cole Hamels was horrific on the road as a member of the Texas Rangers this season, but a change of scenery appears to be just what the doctor ordered. He is pitching for a contender again, and it's like he took a time machine back to his days with the Philadelphia Phillies when he was one of the most feared left-handed starting pitchers in baseball. The Cubs are 6-0 in his past six starts. Chicago has won 10 of 12 overall, and they're 5-1 in their past six against teams with a winning record. The Brewers aren't going away quietly, however, as they're 4-1 in the past five and 4-1 in their past five at home against teams with a winning road mark. Zach Davies might not be the guy to keep it going in a positive direction, however, as the Brewers are 1-4 in his past five starts at home, 1-4 in his past five inside the division and 0-5 in his past five against teams with a winning mark.

    The Mets and Dodgers will do battle at Chavez Ravine, and it's a great pitching matchup with RHP Jacob deGrom against LHP Alex Wood. New York has had some issues against winning sides lately, however, going just 21-46 in their past 67 on the road against teams with a winning overall mark. They're also just 2-5 in the past seven vs. LHP and 2-6 in deGrom's past eight outings away from home against a team with a winning overall record. The Dodgers are streaking again, winners of eight of the past nine. They are also a perfect 4-0 in their past four vs. RHP and 4-0 in Wood's past four against teams with a losing record. While they're 0-4 in Wood's past four at home, the Dodgers are 9-4 in his past 13 against NL East foes and 10-3 in his past 13 at home against teams with a losing overall mark.

    Weather Report

    The Tigers and White Sox might be dodging the raindrops on the south side of Chicago, although the forecast isn't terribly ominous with a 40 percent chance of showers.

    Precip isn't expected to be a problem in Arlington, but the Angels and Rangers will have to contend with a stiff 11-14 mph wind blowing into the face of the batters.


    Tuesday, Sept. 4

    Cardinals RHP Miles Mikolas will take the ball for Tuesday's outing at Nationals Park. He has a 3.72 ERA on the road this season as opposed to a 2.31 ERA at home. However, he has a 6-4 record at Busch Stadium II in 14 starts, while posting a perfect 7-0 record in 13 outings away from home. That unblemished record will be put to the test, as the Nationals tuned him up for four earned runs, including two homers, in a no-decision over seven innings on Aug. 13 in St. Louis.

    Indians RHP Mike Clevinger will face the Royals at Progressive Field. He has been hot since the All-Star break, going 3-2 with a 2.42 ERA and 54 strikeouts over 48 1/3 innings while the opposition is hitting just .218 against him. He is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three outings against Kansas City so far this season. He was probably unhappy to flip the calendar from August to September, as he was a perfect 3-0 with a 2.21 ERA in six August outings with an opponent batting average of just .219.

    Astros RHP Justin Verlander has some crazy splits this season. Overall he has a 2.78 ERA in 29 starts with a .209 opponent batting average, and his 13-9 record can be chalked up to a lack of run support for a good chunk of the season. But what's up with his home record? He is 2-7 with a respectable 3.24 ERA and .209 opponent batting average with 140 strikeouts over just 97 1/3 innings at Minute Maid. He is 11-2 with a 2.26 ERA and 100 strikeouts in 83 2/3 innings in 13 road contests with a .209 opponent batting average. The only explanation is...that's just baseball.

    Mariners LHP Wade LeBlanc takes the ball against the Orioles and RHP Alex Cobb, who brings a 4-15 record and 5.11 ERA to the mound with him. LeBlanc has posted a 6-2 record, 3.95 ERA and .232 opponent batting average over 66 innings in 11 starts and two relief appearances at Safeco Field this season. It's a good thing this is a night game, too, as LeBlanc is terrible under the sun. He has a 7.84 ERA in 20 2/3 innings during the day this season, and a 2.97 ERA in 115 innings under the lights.
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 369858

      #32
      CFL Betting Notes - Week 12
      David Schwab

      Week 11 Betting Recap

      For the second week in a row, the underdogs in the CFL were the best bet against the spread at 3-1. Edmonton got things going last Thursday in a 25-24 loss to Hamilton as a 3 ½-point underdog on the road. In Friday’s action, Montreal pulled off the straight-up upset with a last-second 25-22 victory against Toronto as a five-point underdog at home.

      Saturday’s doubleheader of games got underway with Calgary bouncing back from last week’s unexpected loss with a solid 39-26 victory over Winnipeg as a 7 ½-point home favorite. Week 11 closed things out with Saskatchewan squeezing past British Columbia 24-21 after closing as a 2 ½-point road underdog.

      Monday, Sept. 3

      Edmonton Eskimos (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS)

      Point-spread: Calgary -6 ½
      Total: 53

      Game Overview

      The Eskimos have a golden opportunity to make things interesting out West over the next two weeks in this home-and-home series. Edmonton has a pair of losses (SU and ATS) in its last three games and concerns with a shaky defense have once gain plagued this team. The defense is allowing an average of 24.7 points per game and that average as crept up to 26.7 points in the last three contests.

      Calgary quickly got back to its winning ways following a stunning loss to Saskatchewan in Week 10. With the 13-point victory against the Blue Bombers, the Stampeders have won seven of eight games by double figures. The total has gone OVER in three of their last four games with an average of 31.8 points scored after it had stayed UNDER in their first five contests this season.

      Betting Trends

      -- Calgary has a 9-1 SU record in its last 10 games against the Eskimos at home and it has covered the spread in five of the last seven meetings on its home field. The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven meetings overall.

      Toronto Argonauts (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS)
      Point-spread: Hamilton -7 ½
      Total: 52

      Game Overview

      Toronto has turned to McLeod Bethel-Thompson has its new starting quarterback. Heading into the second half of the season, it decided to add veteran wide receiver Duron Carter to the mix after he was recently released by Saskatchewan. The Argonauts are going to need all the help they can get coming off that unexpected loss to Montreal. Bethel-Thompson did throw for 296 yards and one touchdown in last Friday’s game.

      The Tiger-Cats are 2-4 SU in their last six games with a costly 1-4-1 mark ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their first nine games heading into the opener of this East Division home-and-home tilt. Hamilton is an even 2-2 SU at home this season and it has failed to cover in three of those four games. In last Thursday’s squeaker against the Eskimos, Jeramiah Masoli put the ball up 44 times with 27 completions for 419 yards and one score. He was also picked off twice.

      Betting Trends

      -- Hamilton has a SU 7-3 edge over Toronto in the last 10 meetings of this East Division matchup and it has gone 9-3 ATS in the last 12 games between the two. The total has gone OVER in four of the last six matchups.
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 369858

        #33
        CFL
        Dunkel

        Week 12


        Monday, September 3

        Edmonton @ Calgary


        Game 645-646
        September 3, 2018 @ 3:00 pm

        Dunkel Rating:
        Edmonton
        111.339
        Calgary
        121.333
        Dunkel Team:
        Dunkel Line:
        Dunkel Total:
        Calgary
        by 10
        48
        Vegas Team:
        Vegas Line:
        Vegas Total:
        Calgary
        by 7
        53
        Dunkel Pick:
        Calgary
        (-7); Under

        Toronto @ Hamilton


        Game 647-648
        September 3, 2018 @ 6:30 pm

        Dunkel Rating:
        Toronto
        104.611
        Hamilton
        115.083
        Dunkel Team:
        Dunkel Line:
        Dunkel Total:
        Hamilton
        by 10 1/2
        48
        Vegas Team:
        Vegas Line:
        Vegas Total:
        Hamilton
        by 8
        51 1/2
        Dunkel Pick:
        Hamilton
        (-8); Under

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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 369858

          #34
          CFL
          Long Sheet

          Week 12


          Monday, September 3

          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          EDMONTON (6 - 4) at CALGARY (8 - 1) - 9/3/2018, 3:00 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          CALGARY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 2 seasons.
          CALGARY is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons.
          CALGARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 15 over the last 3 seasons.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          CALGARY is 3-3 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
          CALGARY is 5-1 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
          4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          TORONTO (3 - 6) at HAMILTON (4 - 5) - 9/3/2018, 6:30 PM
          There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          HAMILTON is 3-3 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
          HAMILTON is 3-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
          4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 369858

            #35
            CFL

            Week 12


            Trend Report

            Monday,September 3

            Edmonton Eskimos
            Edmonton is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
            Edmonton is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
            Edmonton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
            The total has gone OVER in 9 of Edmonton's last 13 games on the road
            Edmonton is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Calgary
            Edmonton is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Calgary
            The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 7 games when playing Calgary
            Edmonton is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Calgary
            Edmonton is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Calgary
            The total has gone OVER in 7 of Edmonton's last 10 games when playing on the road against Calgary
            Calgary Stampeders
            Calgary is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
            Calgary is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
            The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Calgary's last 14 games
            Calgary is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games at home
            Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
            The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games at home
            Calgary is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Edmonton
            Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
            The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 7 games when playing Edmonton
            Calgary is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Edmonton
            Calgary is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Edmonton
            The total has gone OVER in 7 of Calgary's last 10 games when playing at home against Edmonton


            Toronto Argonauts
            Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
            The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 11 games
            Toronto is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
            Toronto is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games on the road
            Toronto is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Hamilton
            Toronto is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Hamilton
            The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Hamilton
            Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
            Toronto is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
            The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 8 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
            Hamilton Tiger-Cats
            Hamilton is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
            Hamilton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
            The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Hamilton's last 7 games
            Hamilton is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 games at home
            Hamilton is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games at home
            The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games at home
            Hamilton is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Toronto
            Hamilton is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Toronto
            The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games when playing Toronto
            Hamilton is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
            Hamilton is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Toronto
            The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Hamilton's last 8 games when playing at home against Toronto
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 369858

              #36
              CFL

              Week 12


              Edmonton (6-4) @ Calgary (8-1) (-7, 53)— Stampeders won five of last six meetings in this Alberta rivalry, beating Eskimos 32-28 (-5) in LY’s playoffs. Over is 5-2 in last seven series games, 3-0 in last three played here. Calgary is 5-0 at home this year, 3-2 vs spread, with home wins by 14-10-17-9-13 points. Three of their last four games went over. Edmonton lost its last two road games, giving up 31-25 points in losses in Vancouver, Hamilton. Under is 4-2-1 in Eskimos’ last seven games.

              Toronto (3-6) @ Hamilton (4-5) (-8, 52)— These teams split their last six meetings; over was 4-1-1 in the games. Argonauts are 0-4 on road this year (under 3-1), scoring 17.5 ppg; they were favored in two of those games; Toronto’s last three games were decided by total of five points- their three wins this year are also by total of five points. Argos are 4-3 as an underdog this season. Ti-Cats won two of last three games overall, split their four home games- they’re 2-4 as a favorite this season. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 369858

                #37
                NCAAF
                Long Sheet

                Monday, September 3

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                VIRGINIA TECH (9 - 4) at FLORIDA ST (7 - 6) - 9/3/2018, 8:00 PM
                Top Trends for this game.
                VIRGINIA TECH is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
                FLORIDA ST is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
                FLORIDA ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

                Head-to-Head Series History
                There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 369858

                  #38
                  NCAAF

                  Week 1


                  Trend Report

                  Monday, September 3

                  Virginia Tech @ Florida State

                  Virginia Tech
                  The total has gone OVER in 5 of Virginia Tech's last 5 games when playing Florida State
                  The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Virginia Tech's last 6 games

                  Florida State
                  The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida State's last 5 games when playing Virginia Tech
                  Florida State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 369858

                    #39
                    NCAAF

                    Week 1

                    Monday, September 3

                    Virginia Tech-Florida St split their last four meetings; they haven’t met since 2012. Tech has 12 starters back, 7 on offense; their OL has 51 returning starts. Hokies’ sophomore QB has 13 starts. Since 2013, Tech covered six of last eight games as road underdogs. First game at Florida State for Taggart, who is coaching his third different school in three years. Seminoles have 12 starters back, but only four on defense; their OL has 90 career starts. Looks like Francois returns at QB after missing almost all of LY with an injury. Since 2014, FSU is 10-14 as a home favorite.
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 369858

                      #40
                      NCAAF
                      Dunkel

                      Week 1

                      Monday, September 3

                      Virginia Tech @ Florida State


                      Game 219-220
                      September 3, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

                      Dunkel Rating:
                      Virginia Tech
                      96.814
                      Florida State
                      97.921
                      Dunkel Team:
                      Dunkel Line:
                      Dunkel Total:
                      Florida State
                      by 1
                      54
                      Vegas Team:
                      Vegas Line:
                      Vegas Total:
                      Florida State
                      by 7 1/2
                      57
                      Dunkel Pick:
                      Virginia Tech
                      (+7 1/2); Under
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