Monday 9-10-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Tech Trends - Week 1
Bruce Marshall

Monday, Sept. 10

N.Y. JETS at DETROIT (ESPN, 7:10 p.m. ET)
Patricia debut for Lions! Caldwell was 14-5-1 as Ford Field chalk the past four seasons. Though Lions enter 2018 only 4-6 vs. spread last ten as host. Bowles just 3-7-1 as road dog past two seasons but “under” 10-5 last 15 away.
Tech Edge: Lions and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

L.A. RAMS at OAKLAND (ESPN, 10:20 p.m. ET)
Gruden Raiders re-debut! Rams were 6-3 vs. line away LY for McVay. Oakland “under” 11-5 last season including last seven. Raid-uhs also just 4-11-3 last 18 on board since late 2016.
Tech Edge: Rams and “under."

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Monday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Jets at Lions (-6 ½, 44 ½) – 7:10 PM EST - ESPN

SAM I AM READY

Although Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson saw action at quarterback on Sunday, former USC standout Sam Darnold is the first rookie from this past NFL draft to start a regular season contest. Darnold beat out veteran Josh McCown for the starting position looking to improve a Jets’ squad that finished 5-11 last season, capped off by four consecutive losses.

Darnold began the preseason by throwing a touchdown pass in a 17-0 shutout of the Falcons, but the Jets lost the final three exhibition contests. The Jets head to Ford Field coming off a dreadful 1-7 record on the road last season, while picking up only one cover, which came as 16 ½-point underdogs in a 31-19 setback at New Orleans. In case you were wondering, the only victory away from Met Life Stadium for New York came at Cleveland, 17-14.

HE AIN’T LION

Matt Patricia makes his head coaching debut for Detroit following a successful run as defensive coordinator of the Patriots. The Lions lost three of four preseason games, including both contests at Ford Field to the Browns and Giants. In the lone preseason victory at Tampa Bay, the Lions erased a 27-6 deficit to stun the Bucs, 33-30.

Patricia inherits a team that is coming off consecutive 9-7 seasons, but the franchise is seeking its first playoff victory since 1991. The Lions began 2017 with a solid 3-1 record and even owned a 6-4 mark through 10 games. However, Detroit split its final six games as nine wins was not enough to make the postseason for the second consecutive year.

FAST STARTERS

Since losing the infamous Calvin Johnson non-touchdown catch game at Chicago in 2010, the Lions have captured six of their past seven season openers. In this span, Detroit is 4-0 at Ford Field, including rallying from an early 10-0 deficit in a 35-23 victory over Arizona as two-point underdogs in 2017. The Lions are hosting a Week 1 Monday night affair for the first time since 2014, when Detroit blew out the other New York club by beating the Giants, 35-14 as 6 ½-point favorites.

SERIES HISTORY

The last time the Lions and Jets hooked up came back in 2014 at Met Life Stadium as Detroit grabbed a 24-17 triumph as two-point underdogs. Lions’ quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 293 yards and two touchdowns, while wide receiver Golden Tate hauled in eight receptions for 116 yards. The Jets’ signal-caller that day was Geno Smith, who compiled 209 yards passing to go along with a touchdown and interception as the Lions led by as many as 14 points in the second half.

The Jets won in their most recent trip to Ford Field in 2010 as Mark Sanchez threw for 336 yards in a 23-20 overtime victory. However, Detroit covered as a 5 ½-point home underdog.

LINE MOVEMENT

This game opened with the Lions listed as six-point favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, but has crept up to 6 ½ points at most outlets. The total opened at 44, but is up to 44 ½ and even 45 at several books. Last season, Detroit cashed the OVER in six of eight games at Ford Field, including three of four times in the favorite role.



Rams (-4 ½, 48) at Raiders – 10:15 PM EST – ESPN

CHUCKY’S BACK

Jon Gruden spent four seasons as the head coach of the Raiders from 1998-2001 as he lead Oakland to consecutive AFC West titles in his final two seasons. Gruden’s final game with the Raiders was the famous “Tuck Rule” game in the playoff overtime loss to the Patriots, which began New England’s dynasty. After a successful run as the analyst on ESPN’s Monday Night Football, Gruden is back in the East Bay looking to restore the Silver and Black to excellence.

The Raiders started 2017 with plenty of promise after beating the Titans and Jets by double-digits. However, Oakland fell apart by losing 10 of the final 14 games, while the Raiders scored 17 points or less in all 10 defeats. Following a 6-2 record at the Oakland Coliseum in their playoff run of 2016, the Raiders slipped to 4-3 at the Black Hole last season, while their other “home” game in Mexico was a 25-point blowout at the hands of the Patriots.

RAMMING AHEAD

In his first season as the head man in Los Angeles, Sean McVay helped ramp up a mediocre Rams’ attack as L.A. scored at least 30 points in eight games. The Rams captured their first NFC West title since 2003 by finishing 11-5 before getting tripped up by the Falcons in the Wild Card round. Quarterback Jared Goff threw 28 touchdown passes compared to seven interceptions, while running back Todd Gurley racked up 1,305 yards on the ground.

The Rams didn’t own much of a home-field advantage at the L.A. Coliseum by going 4-4, but Los Angeles posted a tremendous 7-1 road record, including five wins in the favorite role. However, the Rams put together a 3-2 ATS mark in those five road chalk affairs, but finished OVER the total in all five of those opportunities.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

Los Angeles is making only its third appearance on Monday night football since 2013. The Rams were last on Monday night two seasons ago following their move from St. Louis as the 49ers blasted Los Angeles, 28-0 in the 2016 opener. In this same stretch, the Raiders own a 1-2 record on Mondays, with their last win coming in Mexico against the Texans in 2016. The last time the Raiders hosted a Monday night affair came in 2012 as they lost to the Chargers in the season opener, 22-14.

SERIES HISTORY

The last time Derek Carr saw the Rams back in 2014, the Raiders were destroyed in St. Louis, 52-0. The Rams jumped out to a 38-0 halftime lead as quarterback Shaun Hill threw two touchdown passes, while running back Tre Mason found the end zone twice. That season, the Raiders finished in last place of the AFC West at 3-13, while this loss was amazingly not the worst in franchise history as they suffered a 55-0 defeat to the Oilers in 1961.

The Raiders beat the Rams in L.A.’s last trip to Oakland in 2010 by a 16-14 count as three-point favorites. The last victory for the Rams on the road in this series came in 2006 by a 20-0 shutout as Steven Jackson rushed for 127 yards and two scores.

LINE MOVEMENT

In early May, CG Technologies released the Raiders as 1 ½-point favorites, but the Rams have flipped to a 4 to 4 ½-point favorite at most books. The total opened at 49 ½ before briefly dropping to between 47 ½ and 48 at many outlets.

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Jets vs Lions NFL betting picks and predictions: Darnold debuts on Monday Night Football

New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 44.5)

QUICK HITTER

The Lions and Jets face off at Ford Field on Monday night as New York looks to rebound from a dismal season on both sides of the football, and they will turn to rookie Sam Darnold to run the offense. However, that figures to be a tough task in his NFL debut as the Lions have a serviceable secondary led by Darius Slay, and if the Jets can’t establish the ground game early and often it will force their lackluster passing game to go to work. The Lions meanwhile have a laundry list of weapons offensively and, while the Jets defense can go punch-for-punch, it will take them a sequence or two to get acclimated to the crowd noise. Look for Stafford to dissect the Jets defense early in the first quarter and get in the endzone for the game’s opening score.

Prediction: First Score: Detroit Touchdown (+170)

HALF TIME BET

The Jets offense will live and die by the run early on, as Sam Darnold gets his bearings in NFL action, and with Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell carrying the rock they are more than capable of handling the load. The Lions don’t have the greatest defense and if the game plan goes according to Todd Bowles’ intentions the Lions defense will be on the field plenty in the opening half, and allow New York to continue building momentum offensively. If Ezekiel Ansah and company can plug the holes it will force the Jets to throw the ball, but for the first half the Jets should have their way on the ground and put up enough to eclipse the 8.5-point first half team total that seems to be incredibly low.

Prediction: First Half: Jets over 8.5

TEAM/PLAYER BET

One of the key matchups in this contest will be the skill set of the Detroit receivers against the shut down capabilities of the New York cornerbacks, with Golden Tate matched up with Trumaine Johnson and Marvin Jones lined up against Morris Claiborne. The Jets defense was woeful last season but with those two corners manning the secondary, alongside sophomore sensation Jamal Adams, and Leonard Williams leading a talented defensive line they are in much better shape this time around. However, Claiborne is going to get picked on in this contest, and with most of his matchups coming up against Jones, the WR1-A for the Lions will get himself into the endzone at some point in this game.

Prediction: Marvin Jones TD (+120)

FULL-GAME TOTAL

The Lions had the league’s worst running game last season and haven’t done much to rectify their woes, with the exception of drafting Kerryon Johnson, so you can be sure Detroit will be throwing the ball all game long. The Jets though will be hammering the rock on the ground, and if successful they should keep Detroit's offense off the field and allow the clock to run - keeping the total manageable until well into the second half. Both teams struggle to score on Monday Night Football as the Lions have stayed Under the number in 9 of their last 13 contests, while the Jets have played to the Under in four of their last five Monday night games and seven of their last 10 road games overall. This one should follow a similar script and come Under the 44.5 point total.

Prediction: Game Total: Under 44.5 (-110)

FULL-GAME SIDE

The Lions are favoured by a touchdown, as the oddsmakers are banking on a rocky start from Sam Darnold, and while that may still come to fruition Darnold’s performance shouldn't play much of a factor in the outcome of this game. Detroit will rely solely on the passing game to win and cover and that should allow New York’s defense to double-cover downfield and prevent the deep threat from burning them multiple times. Also, the Jets defense should be able to get to Matt Stafford and they should win the turnover battle in this game giving the Jets the chance to win the game outright, let alone cover the 6.5 points. Take the Jets to keep this one close.

Prediction: Game Side: Jets +6.5 (-110)

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Rams vs Raiders NFL betting picks and predictions: Great expectations in L.A.

Los Angeles Rams at Oakland Raiders (+4, 47.5)

QUICK HITTER

Jon Gruden’s return to the sidelines should give the Raiders, and their fans, something to be excited about but that novelty should wear out fast as they are in big trouble in this spot, despite playing at home on Monday Night Football. The Rams come into the regular season as one of the favourites to win the Super Bowl, as they added some big time pieces to an already impressive roster that should have no trouble eating up yards on a Raiders defense that was terrible last season, and is now without their cornerstone piece as they shipped Khalil Mack to the Bears. Los Angeles has so many weapons on offense and with Sean McVey having plenty of time to game plan for a lackluster Raiders defense, they should have no issues starting the season on the right foot and score the game’s first major.

Prediction: First Score: Los Angeles Rams Touchdown (+190)

HALF TIME BET

The Raiders will be leaning heavily on Derek Carr this season as they are going to be in plenty of shootouts, with their defense shaping up to be a bottom-five unit in the NFL, but luckily the Silver and Black have some nice pieces on the offensive side of the football. Jordy Nelson came over from the Packers, and both Marshawn Lynch and Amari Cooper are primed for a bounce back season, but they are going to be in tough against a Rams defense that features the best interior defensive line in football with Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald stuffing the run. This should allow the Rams offense plenty of time to operate in the first half and the Rams will score at least two first half touchdowns.

Prediction: First Half: Los Angeles Rams Over 1.5 Touchdowns (+100)

TEAM/PLAYER BET

Los Angeles became a Super Bowl threat a season ago, thanks to the breakout season from both Todd Gurley and Jared Goff, and as the core of their team’s offense the Rams should be able to compete with anybody offensively. Furthermore, the Rams boast one of the league’s best defenses and should seriously be considered a threat to win the Lombardi Trophy and against the Raiders expect the Rams to attack the Oakland defense from a number of different directions. Despite the number of mismatches in favour of the Rams in this spot, the biggest could be Gurley against the Raiders run defense - and with a price tag of +400 for Gurley to score the game’s first touchdown it is too good to pass up in what looks to be a clock-work effort for the Rams.

Prediction: Gurley First TD (+400)

FULL-GAME TOTAL

The Raiders received a ton of criticism when they dealt Khalil Mack, and rightfully so, but the one consolation is that former Bengals defensive coordinator Paul Guenther is taking over and he has shown he can game plan a pretty imposing defensive scheme. Oakland’s offense is still a decent group when healthy, and while the Rams defense is very imposing the Raiders should still be able to put up some points in this spot, whether it happens in garbage time or otherwise. We have already highlighted the dangerous Rams offense and with all things considered this game should eclipse the total. The Over is 7-3 in Oakland’s last 10 September games while the Rams have gone Over in seven of their last eight games on the road. This game follows a similar script.

Prediction: Game Total: Over 47.5

FULL-GAME SIDE

The Rams have covered in their last four meetings against the Raiders and the line has moved from -2.5 in favor of Los Angeles and spiked up to -4 thanks to the Khalil Mack trade. Los Angeles is a very dangerous team and if this game was at a neutral site the Rams would be favoured by at least a touchdown which indicates the separation between these two clubs. The Black Hole deserves some kind of consideration, as does hosting a Monday Night Football game, but when you look at these two teams side-by-side there is clearly a ton of separation and that should be reflected in the final score. It might be worthwhile buying up a few points, as well, as a double digit victory is a very plausible finish.

Prediction: Game Side: Rams -4

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Diamond Trends - Monday
Vince Akins

SU Play ON Trend of the Day:

-- The Yankees are 12-0 SU off a loss as a road favorite in which they held the lead. In their last five, which are all from THIS season, NY outscored their opponent 39-11.

SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

-- The Nationals are 0-13 SU on the road when their line is within 20 cents of pickem off a home game in which they scored six-plus runs. In their two games from this season, Washington was outscored 17-1.

Hitter-Based Trend of the Day:

-- The Angels are 10-0 SU at home off a game as a favorite in which Justin Upton was hitless in at least three at bats.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day:

-- The Cubs are 16-0 SU with Jon Lester as a favorite when he gave up no walks in his last start.

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MLB

Monday, September 10


STREAKING AND SLUMPING STARTING PITCHERS

Streaking: Trevor Williams, Pittsburgh Pirates (12-9, 3.15 ERA, $336)

Trevor Williams must be on a great run right now to be flagged as our Streaking Starting Pitcher on a day that also has Jacob deGrom on the board - but here we are. Over his last nine starts for the Pirates, he owns a team win/loss record of 6-3, an ERA of 0.66, and a WHIP of 1.061 - and the Under has cashed in all nine games.

Williams will look to keep the good times rolling this evening as a +120 road underdog against Adam Wainwright and the host St. Louis Cardinals.

Slumping: Francisco Liriano, Detroit Tigers (4-9, 4.90 ERA, $-1,200)

It must be tough to be an effective starting pitcher with a rebuilding team. That's exactly the situation that veteran lefty Francisco Liriano finds himself in, and he isn't exactly excelling in that role. Liriano is traditionally a very streaky pitcher and he's in the midst of a bad streak at the moment. Over his last five starts he owns a win/loss record of 1-3, an ERA of 7.17, and a WHIP of 2.0625.

Liriano gets the assignment tonight at home as a massive +285 underdog against Justin Verlander and the visiting Houston Astros.


Stormy New York

The forecast in Queens is calling for rain for most of the day, but there is a slight chance of the wet stuff stopping this evening. If the rain does stop long enough to get the game in tonight between the Mets and the visting Nationals, there is a 15 mile per hour wind in the forecast blowing in from right field.

In the Double-Play Picks section above we are riding the deGrom first five inning train, once again. However, with the wind blowing in and deGrom on the mound don't hesitate to take the full game Under 7 and the Marlins team total Under 2.5.


Mile High Under

The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Colorado Rockies combined for 15 runs yesterday afternoon to go against the Rockies' current streak of Under results at Coors Field. With last night's Over, the Under is now 25-8-1 in the last 34 games at Coors and we expect that trend to get back on the winning side tonight with the Arizona Diamondbacks in town.

The visitors will send Zack Godley to the mound and he comes in with a very good history in the Mile High City. In three career starts at Coors Field, Godley owns a team win/loss record of 3-0 with an ERA of 2.89 and a WHIP of 1.125. German Marquez gets the home start for the Rox and the Under has cashed in his last eight starts overall and he, like most of the Rockies' starting rotation, has been pitching great at home with an ERA of 2.43 and a WHIP of 1.14 in his last five starts in Denver.

This game has been pegged with another high total of 10. Take the Under tonight with confidence.


Wainwright's Return

We don't usually like betting on a game involving a starting pitcher returning from a lenthy injury absense, but in the case of today's return of Cardinals' starting pitcher Adam Wainwright we love the fade in this spot. Wainwright has looked very good during his rehab outings against minor leaguers, but the big leagues are a different animal. We would expect a pitch limit of around 90 pitches tonight and then Wainwright will be handing the ball off to a bullpen that has been below average on the season with an ERA of 4.26, and over their last 10 games the bullpen ERA balloons to 4.91.

Most importantly, is that the Pirates will be starting Trevor Williams. We outlined his recent exploits above in the Streaking Starting Pitcher section and, to put it quite simply, he's been the best pitcher in baseball over the last two months.

Take a good hard look at the Pirates as +120 underdogs this evening.

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Cole Faxon

Sep 10 '18, 8:15 PM in 4h
MLB | Pirates vs Cardinals
Play on: Cardinals -115 at MyBookie

FREE PLAY on Cardinals -115

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Sal Michaels

Sep 10 '18, 10:20 PM in 7h
NFL | Rams vs Raiders
Play on: Raiders +5 -110 at MyBookie

Free Play on Raiders +5 -110

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Mike Williams

Sep 10 '18, 10:20 PM in 7h
NFL | Rams vs Raiders
Play on: Raiders +5 -105 at Bovada

1* on Raiders +5 -105

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Bobby Conn

Sep 10 '18, 7:10 PM in 3h
NFL | Jets vs Lions
Play on: Jets +7½ -115 at MyBookie

1* Free Play on Jets +7½ -115

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Jimmy Boyd

Sep 10 '18, 7:10 PM in 3h
NFL | Jets vs Lions
Play on: Jets +7 -115 at MyBookie

1* Free Pick on New York Jets +7
The Lions are getting way too much respect from the books against what I think is a very underrated Jets team. Last year New York went into the season with people wondering if they would even win a game. They finished up 5-11, which I think speaks volumes to the ability of head coach Todd Bowles.
I look for Bowles to have his team ready to go behind talented rookie quarterback Sam Darnold. There's going to be some growing pains for Darnold, but I think the Lions are a team he can have success against. Detroit is learning new schemes on the defensive side of the ball under first year head coach Matt Patricia and have a lot of ground to make up. The Lions ranked a mere 27th in the NFL last year in total defense, giving up 355.8 ypg and were also 27th against the pass (243.2 ypg).
Detroit simply isn't as good as people think and I think it's going to take at least a couple years for Patricia to get them back to being a threat in the NFC. They were 9-7 a year ago, but only had one win against a playoff team and that was division rival Minnesota. With how good the Bears looked last night against the Packers, I don't think it's out of the question that the Lions could finish last in the NFC North. Look for the Jets to keep this game close and potentially win the game outright. Take New York!

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Ryan Worden

Sep 10 '18, 8:15 PM in 4h
MLB | PIT vs STL
Play on: UNDER 8 +105

The Cardinals Adam Wainwright made 4 starts early in the season before the Cardinals decided to shut him down for a few months to rehab an injured elbow. With how he's looked in 6 minor league appearance not giving up a run over 17 innings he looks like he may be back to his old self. Trevor Williams has been excellent for the Pirates only giving up 4 runs in his last 9 starts. This could be a pitchers duel. Take The UNDER.

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Info Plays

Sep 10 '18, 8:15 PM in 4h
MLB | White Sox vs Royals
Play on: White Sox +117 at GTBets

1* Free Play on White Sox +117

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Totals Guru

Sep 10 '18, 7:10 PM in 3h
MLB | MIA vs NYM
Play on: UNDER 7 -121

Free Total Annihilator On Marlins vs Mets under 7 -121

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Kenny Walker

Sep 10 '18, 7:10 PM in 3h
NFL | Jets vs Lions
Play on: Jets +7½ -115 at MyBookie

Free Pick on Jets