Thursday 9-13-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Opening Line Report - Week 2
Joe Williams

After an exciting opening week of the NFL regular season, we have a little bit of information to try and determine which teams to back, which teams to fade, etc. However, it isn't until a full month or so where we get a much better sample size. One team now could be world beaters at home, but then hit the road and look like a completely different team. There were a couple of teams to open with emphatic road victories, and their number in the home opener in Week 2 might be a bit inflated, providing value for the underdogs.

Looking back at Week 1, the Baltimore Ravens routed the Buffalo Bills by a 47-3 score, so bettors will likely overrate the Ravens based on their one result, while writing off the Bills. The Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, New York Jets and Tampa Bay Buccaneers scored huge road wins, so the public is likely to get behind them after impressive wins. It's just one win, though. Don't get crazy and look at some past trends in the series as well as a little common sense.

Thursday, Sept. 13

Baltimore Ravens (-1, 44) at Cincinnati Bengals

The Ravens opened as high as -3 at BetOnline.ag offshore, and mostly -1 to -1.5 at the Vegas books. At the Wynn, it opened with Baltimore -1.5 and quickly moved to a pick 'em in less than 24 hours. Apparently the sharps aren't terribly impressed by Baltimore's 47-3 whitewashing of Buffalo. Cincinnati also opened with a solid 34-23 road win at Indianapolis.

These teams split last season, with the Ravens winning 20-0 at Paul Brown Stadium on Sept. 10, 2017 as a 2 1/2-point underdog, while the Bengals returned to the favor on New Year's Eve by a 31-27 count as an eight-point underdog. The Bengals lost two of their three divisional games at home last season, going 2-1 ATS. The 'over' also cashed in each of Cincinnati's past four against AFC North opponents.

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 2

Thursday, September 13

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BALTIMORE (1 - 0) at CINCINNATI (1 - 0) - 9/13/2018, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 2-2 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Week 2

Trend Report

Thursday, September 13

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Baltimore's last 13 games
Baltimore is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games on the road
Baltimore is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Baltimore is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore

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Tech Trends - Week 2
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Sept. 13

BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI (FOX, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Cincy has covered 6 of last 9 meetings, though Raves were 5-2-1 vs. line away LY and won 20-0 at Paul Brown. Harbaugh also 7-1 vs. line last 8 as AFC North visitor. Balt also “over” 13-7-1 since late 2016.
Tech Edge: Ravens and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 2

Thursday, September 13

Baltimore @ Cincinnati

Game 101-102
September 13, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
139.074
Cincinnati
130.059
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 9
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 1
44
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-1); Under

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NFL

Week 2

Thursday
Ravens (1-0) @ Bengals (1-0)— Cincy scored late TD in season finale LY to beat Ravens 31-27 and knock Baltimore out of playoffs; Bengals won seven of last nine series games, five of last six played here- Ravens lost 20-0 here LY. Ravens were dominant in 47-3 win in their opener, but Buffalo doesn’t have a competent QB. Bengals were outgained 380-330 in their win at Indy LW; their defense was stout in red zone (only 10 points/3 drives), and they put game away with scoop/score in last minute. Last four years, Ravens are 19-13 SU on road, 15-15-2 vs spread- they’re 7-1-1 vs spread in AFC North road games the last three years. Last five years, Bengals are 24-14-2 vs spread at home, 9-6 in divisional games.

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Be careful not to overreact to these results when betting the NFL Week 2 odds
Steve Paul

Is Ryan Fitzpatrick the best QB in the NFL? Are the Buffalo Bills the worst team in NFL history? Those might seem like crazy questions (at least the first one does…) but if you could only base your answer on Week 1, I think is “yes” to both.

As usual early in the season, we’re left trying to decide what’s real and what’s not as we look forward to Week 2. Let’s talk generally about regression before diving into some more specific situations.

Regression to the mean sounds straightforward but is easy to miss. The idea is simple, after an extreme performance the next one will generally be closer to the average. Once you learn about it, you see it everywhere.

Throw a pick 6 - maybe on your first ever NFL throw? The very next throw is likely to be better. Put up an MVP season and get put on the cover of Madden? Next season is likely to be worse. The smaller the sample or bigger the outlier, the more regression you can expect (I’m looking at you Ryan Fitzpatrick).

Now let’s size up some of the outliers from Week 1 and what to expect in Week 2.

Big winners/losers in Week 1

Five teams won by more than 10 points in Week 1: should we expect their good play to continue? History would suggest not so much. Since 2002, teams that win by 10 or more points in Week 1 are just 60-58 straight up and 54-58-6 ATS in Week 2.

Similarly, the big losers tend to perform better in Week 2. They’re only 51-66 straight up – teams that lose by 10-plus tend to be below average teams – but 57-56-4 ATS.

The takeaway: don’t let one performance drastically affect your Week 2 projections for a team.

Offensive explosions and defensive stalwarts

We saw a number of offenses go crazy in Week 1, perhaps most impressively the Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Bucs. Again, these teams have a history of coming back to earth in Week 2. Since 2002, teams who scored 35 points or more in Week 1 averaged just 22.3 points in Week 2 - versus 18.8 points for teams scoring 10 points or fewer in Week 1. Those teams putting up a lot of points are better offenses, just not nearly as much as it might at first appear.

What about the great/terrible defensive performances? I’m thinking you see the trend by now. The “great” Week 1 defenses are better than the terrible ones, but only by about three points. Don’t make the mistake of completely ignoring a one-game sample, but be careful how far you move your projections.

Potential overreactions

The total for the Chargers at Bills matchup has dropped from 44.5 to 43 after the Bills’ disastrous opening game. With Josh Allen starting at QB, we have a likely regression candidate against an explosive Chargers offense and a Bolts defense that struggled in Week 1. Put me down for the Over.

The Cardinals at Rams total has dropped two points to 45 and the line has moved to -13 after Arizona struggled in Week 1. We saw Oakland move the ball well versus the Rams before Derek Carr’s second-half implosion, and I’m willing to bet David Johnson & Co. rebound a bit after a slow start.

One move that’s warranted based on Week 1 is the Chiefs-Steelers total going up three points, from 49.5 to 52.5. For those players we don’t have much of a sample on (Pat Mahomes and James Conner for example), we should be willing to adjust more. Both looked great in Week 1, and Kansas City confirmed that its defense is as bad or worse than we expected it to be after 2017. Unless this number skyrockets out of control, I won’t be going anywhere near the Under.

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TNF - Ravens at Bengals
Tony Mejia

Baltimore at Cincinnati (PK, 44.5), 8:20 pm ET, NFLN

Since the Steelers and Browns delivered a Week 1 tie, the winner of Thursday’s contest will have a 2-0 record and sole possession of the AFC North lead. A leg up on everyone else doesn’t hurt, even this early in the game.

So, who do you like? Take your pick. The line is telling you to.

The Ravens are expected to do more this season after making it through the preseason healthier than they’ve entered a season in years, while the Bengals were identified as a team that would likely continue to take a step back after finishing under .500 in consecutive seasons for only the second time in Marvin Lewis’ 15-year tenure.

His 16th season opened with a victory in Indianapolis, so with a new defensive coordinator in the highly regarded Teryl Austin and Bill Lazor back for a second season to run the offense, there’s a sense of optimism in place entering a Thursday night home opener against a Baltimore team that it has enjoyed tremendous success against over the years, winning seven of the last eight meetings.

The Ravens led Buffalo 40-0 before finally surrendering a field goal in Week 1’s most lopsided contest, so if nothing else, the degree of difficulty increases here given the road atmosphere and the improved opposition. John Harbaugh is also working with a new defensive coordinator since Dean Pees elected to retire only to change his mind a few weeks later, joining Tennessee in the same capacity.

Linebackers coach Don Martindale was promoted after being on staff since 2012, so there’s plenty of continuity in place. Baltimore’s defense didn’t allow a single first down until the second half and gave up 10 all game, limiting the Bills to 153 yards and a 2-for-15 showing on third down. They picked off a pair of Nathan Peterman passes and sacked Buffalo’s quarterbacks six times. Any way you slice it, the Ravens benefited from facing the NFL’s worst offense, but they’ve been doing a lot of winning so far in 2018.

Ironically, the Ravens’ 2017 campaign ended on Dec. 31 at the hands of the Bengals, who played spoiler and dashed their rival’s playoff aspirations with a Week 17 upset. Andy Dalton hit Tyler Boyd for a 49-yard score in the final minute to produce a 31-27 upset after an Eric Weddle interception was called back due to defensive pass interference. After Joe Flacco failed to engineer a desperate comeback, fans in Baltimore watched their team walk off the field and into the offseason dejected and demoralized.

Baltimore went a perfect 5-0 in the preseason, winning the Hall of Fame game way back on Aug. 2 and defeating its opposition by a combined 55 points. While exhibition games are meaningless, winning them all suggests that they have superior depth, remained focused and practiced like pros.

To his credit, John Harbaugh saw the makings of this potential revival early, quickly stating that this group was putting together one of the most impressive training camps he’d ever seen. Combined with the fact they stayed healthy after seemingly being cursed with one season-ending injury after another before Week 1 over the past few years, the fact they looked so sharp in the 47-3 rout of Buffalo wasn’t entirely about how awful the Bills were.

Over nine months after last running into the Bengals, the Ravens visit them in Cincinnati and won’t have to deal with public enemy No. 1 in Vontaze Burfict. Cincy’s standout linebacker and defensive leader is serving the second of a four-game suspension for a PED violation, so while we may see a brawl or a late hit in what’s been a consistently emotional and nasty rivalry, one of the usual suspects won’t be the instigator.

Without Burfict, the Bengals were carved up in Indianapolis despite the fact that they put the game away by clamping down in the final quarter, scoring the last 17 points and putting the exclamation point on a comeback win by taking a Jack Doyle fumble 83 yards on a scoop-and-score from young safety Clayton Fejedelem. Cincinnati intercepted Andrew Luck once too but struggled to get off the field on third down, surrendering conversions on 11-of-17 chance to get off the field. If Flacco is able to replicate that on Thursday, it’s bound to be a long night for the home team, which sacked Luck only twice and gave up 380 yards of offense.

Austin should get better results as the season unfolds and Burfict returns, but he’s working with most of the same guys that have been on board with the Bengals over the past few years, losing only CB Adam ‘Pacman’ Jones and DT Chris Smith from last year’s group.

Flacco is working with a lot of new faces thanks to a revamped receiving corps and has immediately taken to the group, tossing touchdown passes to Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead against the Bills.

Cincinnati’s best offensive option remains All-Pro wideout A.J. Green, who was fed six times for 92 yards by Dalton against the Colts but fumbled twice, losing possession once. With last year’s No. 1 pick, John Ross, finally healthy and tight end Tyler Eifert having returned from a season-long back issue, Dalton has a lot of talented weapons to work with. Boyd is back too, while RB Joe Mixon looks stronger after an uneven rookie season and came up with a game-high 149 yards on 22 touches against the Colts, emerging as a valuable, productive threat with the second-most productive game of his young career. Former starter Giovanni Bernard only got one carry and one catch as a result but has plenty of experience going up against the Ravens over the years, owning two career touchdowns against them.

Baltimore is hoping for the type of defensive effort it got in its last visit to Paul Brown Stadium, where it pulled off a 20-0 shutout in the 2017 season opener. The Ravens turned Dalton over five times, intercepting him on four occasions in addition to forcing a fumble. Dalton rebounded and threw for 222 yards and three scores in Week 17 despite an off game from Green.

Flacco has a 19-to-23 touchdown-to-interception ration against the Bengals over his career, completing just 60 percent of his passes in contributing to his team’s recent struggles over a rival he originally won six of his first nine games against before this recent 3-8 run. He’s only won in two of his last nine visits to Paul Brown Stadium.

While the Ravens are hoping to start 2-0 for the third straight season, Cincinnati opened 0-3 last year and hasn’t opened with consecutive victories since 2015, part of an 8-0 run that helped yield its last division title.

Baltimore Ravens
Season win total: 8.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Odds to win AFC North: 3/1 to 9/4
Odds to win AFC: 20/1 to 20/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 25/1 to 20/1

Cincinnati Bengals
Season win total: 7 (Over -135, Under +115)
Odds to win AFC North: 10/1 to 5/1
Odds to win AFC: 40/1 to 40/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 80/1 to 40/1

LINE MOVEMENT

The Ravens beat up the Bills and Pittsburgh tied Cleveland as the Le'Veon Bell saga dragged on into another week, so the Westgate LV Superbook eased up on its stance on the AFC North favorite. Pittsburgh (4/5) is still favored to win the AFC North but the Ravens have moved all the way up from the 4/1 they opened at. Cincinnati also got a bump, moving up from the 10/1 to win the AFC North that they were at all offseason prior to Week 1

The Bengals were one of the four biggest longshots to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl when odds were released, right there with the Jets, Bills and Browns. After taking down the Colts in Indianapolis, they have now moved way up. New York (60/1) and Cleveland (80/1) also saw odds improve. Buffalo moved to 1,000/1.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Ravens opened the week favored by one point at most shops (1.5 at the Wynn) but the Bengals moved to a 1-point chalk themselves in many places too. There are a lot of pick'ems out there (Westgate, Wynn) but William Hill has the Ravens favored by 1 while the Mirage and a few online books have Cincinnati laying a point. The total opened at 44, climbed to 44.5 at most places and now has 45 widely available at many shops.

Shop away for a point or take a stab at the money line since Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are at -105/-110 depending on where you look. Team totals for both are available in the 21.5/22 range.

INJURY CONCERNS

Burfict is suspended for Cincinnati, while Baltimore is without corner Jimmy Smith for the first four games and won't have Maurice Canady to help the cause since he's been ruled out with a thigh injury.

Baltimore will also be without DT Willie Henry (abdominal) and put veteran RB Kenneth Dixon on IR after he suffered a knee injury against the Bills. Alex Collins and Buck Allen should capably handle the workload to anchor the ground game.

The Bengals may be missing LB Preston Brown (ankle), who came up with the interception of Luck in Week 1 in his first game since signing a one-year deal after leaving Buffalo.

RECENT MEETINGS (Cincinnati 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS last eight; UNDER 6-4)

12/31/17 Cincinnati 31-27 at Baltimore (CIN +8, 40)
9/10/17 Baltimore 20-0 at Cincinnati (BAL +2.5, 41.5)
1/1/17 Cincinnati 27-10 vs. Baltimore (CIN +2.5, 40.5)
11/27/16 Baltimore 19-14 vs. Cincinnati (BAL -3.5, 41.5)
1/3/16 Cincinnati 24-16 vs. Baltimore (BAL +9.5, 41.5)
9/27/15 Cincinnati 28-24 at Baltimore (CIN +2.5, 44.5)
10/26/14 Cincinnati 27-24 vs. Baltimore (CIN +3, 44.5)
9/7/14 Cincinnati 23-16 at Baltimore (CIN +2, 43)
12/29/13 Cincinnati 34-17 vs. Baltimore (CIN -7, 43)
11/10/13 Baltimore 20-17 (OT) vs. Cincinnati (BAL -2, 44)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 3 currently has the Ravens as a 5.5-point road favorite against Denver. The Bengals will be on the road in Carolina and have been made a 4.5-point underdog.

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Tys Terrific Tips NCAA Football WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS +6.5

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VIP Sports Lock Club MLB LOS ANGELES ANGELS ‑105

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Best Sports Capper MLB ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS +125

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First Half Sports MLB LOS ANGELES DODGERS ‑185

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Power Play Wins MLB ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS +125

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Odds & News MLB ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS/COLORADO ROCKIES ‑120 u10

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Pure Lock MLB OAKLAND ATHLETICS ‑170