Sunday 9-16-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears Preview and Predictions 09-17-2018 in NFL

NFL Previews 14th September 2018 by Gracenote
Seahawks vs. Bears Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 09/14/2018

The Chicago Bears were shaping up to become the toast of the town halfway through their season opener - until Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers crashed their party. Khalil Mack will make his Soldier Field debut as the Bears look to rebound from a crushing defeat in Week 1 when they face the Seattle Seahawks in their home opener on Monday night.

Chicago built a 20-point lead and Mack was looking every bit like the dominant force for which the team had hoped before Rodgers returned from injury and threw three fourth-quarter touchdowns in a 24-23 victory. "Things happen for a reason - I'm a firm believer in that," Chicago's Matt Nagy told reporters regarding his head-coaching debut. "And when things happen for a reason and you stay positive, then in the end, we're going to use this thing." The Seahawks also absorbed a narrow loss in their opener, taking the lead early in the fourth quarter before dropping a 27-24 decision to Denver. "It's a big matchup (between) two hungry teams getting ready to go on Monday night," Seattle coach Pete Carroll told reporters. "The Bears had a terrific game going and then, as we all know, Aaron Rodgers kind of stole the show."

TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Bears -3.5. O/U: 43

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (0-1): Russell Wilson was under relentless pressure against Denver's defense and finished 19-of-33 for 298 yards with three touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. Seattle's passing game received a jolt, however, when No. 1 wideout Doug Baldwin suffered a sprained MCL in the contest - leaving them to go forward with veteran Brandon Marshall and speedster Tyler Lockett, who each had a touchdown reception. The Seahawks raised some eyebrows around the league by signing linebacker Mychal Kendricks, who pleaded guilty last week to charges of inside trading. Seattle is thin at linebacker, with K.J. Wright (knee) and Bobby Wagner (groin) both sitting out practice on Friday.

ABOUT THE BEARS (0-1): Mack, who was acquired from Oakland and signed to a record six-year, $141 million contract prior to the season opener, was a wrecking ball against Green Bay in the first half with a sack, forced fumble and interception return for a touchdown. Mack and the defense recorded four sacks and will set their sights on a Seattle offensive line that surrendered six sacks versus Denver - three by linebacker Von Miller. Running back Jordan Howard looked comfortable in Nagy's new-look offense, rushing for 82 yards on 15 carries and adding five receptions for 25 yards. Second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (22-of-35) threw for only 171 yards, hooking up with wide receiver Allen Robinson four times for 61 yards.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Mack has registered eight sacks, four forced fumbles and two interceptions in his last seven games versus NFC opponents.

2. Wilson has thrown at least two touchdown passes in each of his last six road contests.

3. Trubisky has recorded three TD passes, zero interceptions and a 95.6 passer rating in his last four home games.

PREDICTION: Bears 23, Seahawks 22

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WFAN Picks:

John Jastremski(sharpest guy there, IMO):

Miami +3
Pitt -4.5
Jax P

Evan Roberts:

NYG +3
Ariz +13.5
Pitt -4.5

Joe Benigno:

Buff +8
Carolina +6
Wash -5.5

Mike Francesa:

Buff +8.5
Rams -13.5
NYG +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Redskins
Dolphins
Broncos
Cowboys

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Opening Line Report - Week 2
Joe Williams

After an exciting opening week of the NFL regular season, we have a little bit of information to try and determine which teams to back, which teams to fade, etc. However, it isn't until a full month or so where we get a much better sample size. One team now could be world beaters at home, but then hit the road and look like a completely different team. There were a couple of teams to open with emphatic road victories, and their number in the home opener in Week 2 might be a bit inflated, providing value for the underdogs.

Looking back at Week 1, the Baltimore Ravens routed the Buffalo Bills by a 47-3 score, so bettors will likely overrate the Ravens based on their one result, while writing off the Bills. The Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, New York Jets and Tampa Bay Buccaneers scored huge road wins, so the public is likely to get behind them after impressive wins. It's just one win, though. Don't get crazy and look at some past trends in the series as well as a little common sense.


Sunday, Sept. 16

Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins (-5.5, 46)

The good news is that the Colts got their franchise quarterback, Andrew Luck, back from his lengthy injury. He looked good, but the results were the same, as Indy lost to Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the Redskins opened with a 24-6 road win against the Cardinals, so they're moderate favorites to win their home opener.

The line has held steady at -5.5 at most books, while Washington opened -4.5 at the the Westgate Superbook before rising to -5.5 like the others.

Washington was 2-0 SU/ATS in their two games at home against the AFC last season, and they're 4-1 SU/ATS in the past five at FedEx Field vs. AFC.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5, 44.5)

The Panthers struggled offensive and lost TE Greg Olsen (foot) to injury, while the Falcons have had a few extra days to recover after opening with a Thursday loss in Week 1. The line opened at -4.5 to -5 at most shops, and was up to -6 at the Mirage-MGM by Monday afternoon.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (PK, 46)

This game opened with the Packers slight favorites on Sunday night, but the script has flipped at most shops with the Vikings either a pick 'em or even slightly favored. At the Golden Nugget it was OFF, as there is some uncertain about the health of Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (knee) going into Week 2.

Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5, 43) at Buffalo Bills

The Bills were paddled in Week 1 on the road, already have a quarterback dilemma, and the best QB they had in camp is now wearing silver and black. The Chargers hammered Buffalo by a 54-24 on Nov. 19 last season, cashing as seven-point favorites. The movement has been on the total side, opening at 44 at most shops only to tumble to 43 or 43.5, and it might not be done yet with a lot of doubt about Buffalo's offensive ability.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (OFF)

This game is currently off the board due to the uncertain status of QB Marcus Mariota (elbow), who suffered injury in Week 1 in Miami. Even if Mariota can play, he'll be without a big weapon in TE Delanie Walker. The Titans were a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS at home inside the division last season.

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 53)

The marquee game of the Sunday schedule looked to be the Chiefs-Steelers, and Kansas City held up their end of the bargain with an offensive showcast on the road against the Chargers last week. The Steelers squandered a 14-point lead heading into the fourth quarter in Cleveland, settling for a tie in a sloppy, rain and miscue-filled second half.

There hasn't been much movement on the line, but the total opened as low as 50 at the the Stratosphere before rising to 53 in about eight hours.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (OFF)

Jets rookie Sam Darnold opened with a pick-six in the first 20 seconds of his NFL career. They recovered, running to a 48-17 win. It was their first time cracking 40 points since they outscored Buffalo 48-28 in the season opener on Sept. 9, 2012. In other words, expect a bit of a backslide at home.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 44) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The defending champs gutted out an 18-12 defensive battle win against the Falcons in a game which resembled a preseason game. They've had 10 days to make the necessary adjustments. The Bucs had no such issues on offense, displaying a little 'Fitz-magic' in New Orleans, 48-40. Despite the offensive explosive from the Bucs in Week 1, the line is just 44 on the grass surface in Tampa. The Bucs scored 21 or more points in five of their eight games at the RayJay last season.

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-8.5, 50)

The Browns battled back to a tie against the Steelers in Week 1, gaining a little confidence. The Saints opened Week 2 as the heaviest favorites on the board. They held the same honor in the opening week and lost outright as double-digit favorites.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (OFF)

The offense of the Cards sputtered, as coach Steve Wilks joined the club of new coaches to lose their Week 1 game. Meanwhile, the Rams lambasted Chucky and the Raiders 33-13 and will now go to L.A. for a little home cooking. L.A. outscored Arizona 65-16 in two meetings in 2017, including a 33-0 shellacking in the Coliseum on Oct. 22, 2017.

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (OFF)

Lions QB Matthew Stafford looked colorblind, as he almost threw as many passes to Jets defenders as he threw to his own receivers. It wasn't the 'Patriot Way' that Matt Patricia hoped to bring to Motown. It looked like the same old Lions instead. Meanwhile, Jimmy Garoppolo enters this game in unchartered territory, looking to rebound after his first loss as an NFL starter.

New England Patriots (-2.5, 45) at Jacksonville Jaguars

If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. Down in Duuuuuval, there are high expectations on the Jaguars. A couple of things are affecting this line, however. First off, it's the Patriots, who almost seem to be good for an automatic three points for mystique. Two, and likely most importantly, Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette left the opener with a hamstring injury and he is uncertain for Week 2.

The Patriots won and covered their only game last season favorite by less than three points, topping Pittsburgh 27-24 at Heinz Field on Dec. 17. New England is 4-0 SU/ATS as a favorite of four or less in their past four games.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (OFF)

There is hope in the Mile High City again, winning their opener with Case Keenum under center. That wasn't the 'case' in Oakland on Monday, as the Raiders looked horrific on offense in Chucky's debut, and he failed to make the correct adjustments in the second half in a chess match with Sean McVay.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 42.5)

The Giants didn't muster much in the way of offense, losing to the Jaguars at home. They faced one of the most gifted defensive units in the league, and rookie RB Saquon Barkley looked like the real deal. Outside of RB Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys are pretty devoid of playmakers at the skill positions. It showed in a 16-8 loss in Carolina.

Dallas blasted New York 19-3 in Jerry World on Sept. 10, 2017, and 30-10 at MetLife on Dec. 10, covering both games which resulted in unders. The total at the Stations opened at 43.5 and has been bet down to 42, as bettors aren't feeling the offenses.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 2

Sunday, September 16

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INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 1) at WASHINGTON (1 - 0) - 9/16/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 62-95 ATS (-42.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 87-116 ATS (-40.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 87-116 ATS (-40.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 87-116 ATS (-40.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (1 - 0) at ATLANTA (0 - 1) - 9/16/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 114-84 ATS (+21.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (1 - 0) at GREEN BAY (1 - 0) - 9/16/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 187-134 ATS (+39.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CHARGERS (0 - 1) at BUFFALO (0 - 1) - 9/16/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 95-69 ATS (+19.1 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (0 - 1) at TENNESSEE (0 - 1) - 9/16/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (1 - 0) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 0 - 1) - 9/16/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 105-77 ATS (+20.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 91-66 ATS (+18.4 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (1 - 0) at NY JETS (0-0) - 9/16/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 71-100 ATS (-39.0 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 0) - 9/16/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (0 - 0 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (0 - 1) - 9/16/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) against AFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (0 - 1) at LA RAMS (0-0) - 9/16/2018, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 184-232 ATS (-71.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 184-232 ATS (-71.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 132-183 ATS (-69.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 62-97 ATS (-44.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 3-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (0-0) at SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 1) - 9/16/2018, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (1 - 0) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 0) - 9/16/2018, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-10 ATS (+18.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-10 ATS (+18.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (0-0) at DENVER (1 - 0) - 9/16/2018, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 2-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (0 - 1) at DALLAS (0 - 1) - 9/16/2018, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 2-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 2

Trend Report

Sunday, September 16

Houston Texans
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Houston is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Tennessee
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 15 games when playing Tennessee
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 12 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games
Tennessee is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Houston
Tennessee is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Tennessee's last 15 games when playing Houston
Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 12 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston


Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
Minnesota is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 5-11-1 SU in its last 17 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Minnesota is 2-6-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games
Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Green Bay is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 12 games at home
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Green Bay is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Green Bay is 9-3-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Minnesota


Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 6-18-1 ATS in its last 25 games
Cleveland is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Cleveland's last 15 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
New Orleans is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
New Orleans is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games at home
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland


Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Carolina is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games
Carolina is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Carolina's last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Carolina is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Atlanta's last 19 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games at home
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing Carolina
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Atlanta is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina


Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Indianapolis is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 9 games
Indianapolis is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Indianapolis is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Indianapolis's last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 9 games when playing Washington
Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington Redskins
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 10 games at home
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis


Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Philadelphia's last 21 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia


Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 10 games
Kansas City is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Kansas City is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Kansas City's last 12 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Kansas City is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Kansas City is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 10-2-1 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games
Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games at home
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Kansas City
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City


Miami Dolphins
Miami is 3-7-2 ATS in its last 12 games
Miami is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 12 games
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Miami is 8-12-3 ATS in its last 23 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
Miami is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
NY Jets is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
NY Jets is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games at home
NY Jets is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing Miami
NY Jets is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Jets's last 8 games when playing at home against Miami


Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
LA Chargers is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
LA Chargers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
LA Chargers is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games on the road
LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
LA Chargers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
LA Chargers is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Buffalo's last 16 games at home
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers


Detroit Lions
Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games
Detroit is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Detroit is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing San Francisco
Detroit is 1-6-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
San Francisco is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games at home
San Francisco is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games at home
San Francisco is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
San Francisco is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games when playing Detroit
San Francisco is 6-1-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Detroit
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit


Arizona Cardinals
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
Arizona is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Arizona's last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games on the road
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Arizona is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games when playing LA Rams
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Arizona is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 10 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Rams is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games
LA Rams is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games at home
LA Rams is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 7 games at home
LA Rams is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
LA Rams is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
LA Rams is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing Arizona
LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
LA Rams is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Rams's last 10 games when playing at home against Arizona


Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Oakland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games on the road
Oakland is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Denver
Oakland is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Denver
Oakland is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Denver
Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver Broncos
Denver is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Denver is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
Denver is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games at home
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Oakland
Denver is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Oakland
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland
Denver is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Oakland
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland


New England Patriots
New England is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games
New England is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of New England's last 16 games
New England is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games on the road
New England is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 7 games on the road
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Jacksonville is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Jacksonville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Jacksonville's last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games at home
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing New England

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 2
Bruce Marshall


Sunday, Sep. 16

INDIANAPOLIS at WASHINGTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Colts were 10-5 as dog 2013-15 reg-season action before Luck’s various injuries past two years. Indy “over” 16-8 away in reg season since 2015. Jay Gruden “over” 24-13 since late in 2015.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Colts, based on “totals” and team trends.

CAROLINA at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs have won and covered 4 of last 5 meetings. Cam however is 11-4 as dog since 2015. “Unders” 9-1 last 10 meetings, and Falcs “under” 14-5 since last season.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Vikes have won and covered 4 of last 5 meetings, but Rodgers missed one and most of the other meeting last season. Note “unders” 6-1 last 7 meetings. Pack “over” 21-11 entering 2018. In case Zimmer a dog note he’s 18-9 in role in reg season with Vikings since 2014.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Vikings, especially if dog, based on “totals” and trends.

L.A. CHARGERS at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills only 4-6 as dog (1-2 in role at Orchard Park) for McDermott. Bolts rolled 54-24 LY. Bolts 8-3-1 vs. spread last 9 in 2017.
Tech Edge: Chargers, based on team trends.

HOUSTON at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Watson 3-0 vs. line on road in games he started last season. Texans also “over” in 5 of Watson’s last 6 starts. Titans ”over” 24-12-1 regular season games since late in 2015 campaign.
Tech Edge: Texans and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

KANSAS CITY at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Tomlin 6-2 vs. line last eight years in Week 2. Tomlin also 8-3 vs. points in his 11 home openers at Heinz Field. Steel entered 2018 “under” 33-17-1 since late 2014.
Tech Edge: Slight to Steel, based on Tomlin marks.

MIAMI at NY JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins 1-7 vs. line last 8 in 2017 away from home. Jets 7-1-1 vs. spread last 9 as host.
Tech Edge: Jets, based on team trends.

PHILADELPHIA at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Birds 7-3 vs. spread last ten away from Linc. Also on 17-5-1 spread run since late 2016. Bucs, however, have covered last six as home dog. Bucs also “under” 9-2 last 11 at home.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on team trends.

CLEVELAND at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Brownies 7-14 vs. line last 21 away, also “over” 8-3 last 11 away. Saints “over” 22-11 reg season Superdome since 2014.
Tech Edge: Saints and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

ARIZONA at L.A. RAMS (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Rams destroyed Cards both times LY combined 65-16 score. Though LA just 4-10-1 vs. spread at Coliseum since returning in 2016 (“home” game vs. Big Red LY in London). Rams “over” 13-6 last 19 reg season games Cards just 2-6 vs. line away in 2017.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Rams, based on “totals” and recent series trends.

DETROIT at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Lions were just 11-21 as dog reg season 2014-17 for Caldwell. Detroit "over" 7-2 last nine away, 49ers “over” 9-5 last 14 at Levi’s.
Tech Edge: 49ers and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NEW ENGLAND at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Belichick 11-4 as reg season road chalk past two seasons. Pats also “under” 12-4-1 reg season road since late 2015. Jags only 0-1 as home dog LY.
Tech Edge: Pats and “under,” based on Belichick trends.

OAKLAND at DENVER (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Broncos have won and covered 5 of last 6 as host vs. Raiders. Oakland covered only 2 of last 15 since early 2017 (one of those Ws vs. Denver). “Unders” 5-1 last six in series.
Tech Edge: Broncos and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.

N.Y. GIANTS at DALLAS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Dallas 3-1-1 vs. line at home vs. NYG after struggling as series host prior. Last four “under” in series, and G-Men also “under” 23-10 reg season since 2016. Dallas 4-7-1 last line last 12 as reg season host.
Tech Edge: "Under,” based on “totals” trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Injury questions swirling around Week 2

The Packers host the Vikings on Sunday afternoon and are currently 1-point faves, meaning oddsmakers assume Rodgers will indeed play. But keep an eye on his status.

With Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season in the books we quickly turn our attention to Week 2. So, we’re delivering the need-to-know notes for cracking the NFL odds this week, including the multitude of injuries affecting lines, a potential shootout in Pittsburgh and much more.

BALDWIN OUT?

Reports Monday say that Seahawks receiver Doug Baldwin has a Grade 2 partial MCL tear and is in danger of missing Week 2 at Chicago and that’s bad news for an already-thin Seattle receiving corps. If Baldwin can’t go, it’ll leave Brandon Marshall and Tyler Lockett to soak up targets from Russell Wilson.

The Bears opened as a 3-point favorite after their crushing second-half letdown that resulted in a loss to the Packers. But really, that loss was just Aaron Rodgers being Aaron Rodgers (and a terrible blown coverage by the secondary on Randall Cobb’s winner). The takeaway for bettors from that game should be that the Bears looked good. They showed creativity and spark in Matt Nagy’s new offense and Khalil Mack proved his worth in limited snaps. We’ll dig into this game more throughout the week but grab the Bears -3 before the line grows.

TITANS HURTING

Tennessee tight end Delanie Walker is officially out for the season with a busted ankle while quarterback Marcus Mariota left Sunday’s game in the third quarter with an elbow injury. Mariota was replaced by Blaine Gabbert. Coach Mike Vrabel said things were “looking OK” for Mariota, but bettors really shouldn’t be worried about who plays Sunday at home against Houston. Either Mariota will be playing banged up or it's Blaine Gabbert, who just isn’t very good.

Tennessee's offense scored just one touchdown against the Dolphins on a run by Dion Lewis. The passing game was brutal, gaining 220 yards on 38 attempts and throwing three interceptions. The Titans are a mess offensively and bettors should look at the team total Under as soon as the line opens.

HOUSTON TO IMPROVE

Let’s keep picking on the Titans. Houston plays its second road game in as many weeks when it travels to Tennessee after Sunday’s 27-20 loss to New England. But let’s look at two key factors from that loss. First, Houston’s offensive line got pushed around by New England’s much-improved defensive line. But with a week of practice, it should be able to give Deshaun Watson some time in the pocket after the Titans did next to nothing in terms of pressuring Ryan Tannehill on Sunday (1 sack, 2 QB hits).

Second, Watson looked rusty. He missed numerous open receivers and it would’ve been a different game had he made a few passes. Rust was to be expected after Watson’s long layoff from his ACL tear last season but make no mistake — Watson is a stud. He’ll be better next week, and the Texans should hammer the Titans. The line isn’t out yet as oddsmakers are likely waiting on Mariota’s availability, but bettors should jump on the Houston spread as soon as it gets posted.

SHOOTOUT COMING IN PITTSBURGH

The Kansas City-Pittsburgh game for Sunday opened with a total of 49.5 and has already jumped to 53. From a Kansas City perspective, it’s easy to see why: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and the rest of the Chiefs offense looked deadly in lighting up the Chargers for 38 points in L.A. This is going to be one of the best offense in the NFL this season.

But bettors might be wondering about Pittsburgh’s six turnovers against Cleveland and thinking the Under might be a decent play. Don’t. The Steelers are a completely different offense at home, especially through the air where they attempted 66 more passes and averaged 54.3 more passing yards per game than they did on the road in 2017. Pittsburgh also plans to run a lot of no-huddle in 2018, something it couldn’t do much of because of the terrible weather in Cleveland in Week 1. The total is high, but it could keep going up — grab the Over 53 before it goes any higher.

WILL RODGERS PLAY IN WEEK 2?

Aaron Rodgers leading the Packers to victory after getting carted off the field with a knee injury was a win for the ages. Rodgers has said he’ll play against Minnesota in Week 2, while coach Mike McCarthy isn’t so sure, saying the team “is still collecting information.” The Packers host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon and are currently a 1-point favorite with a total of 46.5, meaning oddsmakers assume Rodgers will indeed play. Keep an eye on the news feed and if there’s even the slightest hint throughout the week that Rodgers will sit, jump on the Vikings as a slight underdog.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 2

Sunday, September 16

Indianapolis @ Washington

Game 261-262
September 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
121.961
Washington
134.123
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 12
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 5 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-5 1/2); Over

Carolina @ Atlanta

Game 263-264
September 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
135.209
Atlanta
138.306
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 3
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 6
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+6); Under

Minnesota @ Green Bay

Game 265-266
September 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
138.734
Green Bay
126.729
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 12
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 1
46
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+1); Over

LA Chargers @ Buffalo

Game 267-268
September 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
131.964
Buffalo
121.402
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 10 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 7
43
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(-7); Under

Houston @ Tennessee

Game 269-270
September 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
00.000
Tennessee
00.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston

Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston

Dunkel Pick:
Houston
( );

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh

Game 271-272
September 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
131.462
Pittsburgh
138.891
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 7 1/2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 5
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-5); Over

Miami @ NY Jets

Game 273-274
September 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
127.435
NY Jets
135.690
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 8
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(-3); Under

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay

Game 275-276
September 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
144.349
Tampa Bay
136.353
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 8
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-3); Under

Cleveland @ New Orleans

Game 277-278
September 16, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
119.843
New Orleans
138.673
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 19
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 8 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-8 1/2); Over

Arizona @ LA Rams

Game 279-280
September 16, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
126.768
LA Rams
135.526
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 9
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 13
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+13); Under

Detroit @ San Francisco

Game 281-282
September 16, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
127.484
San Francisco
129.700
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 3
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 5 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+5 1/2); Over

New England @ Jacksonville

Game 283-284
September 16, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
139.646
Jacksonville
135.149
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 4 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 2
45
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-2); Under

Oakland @ Denver

Game 285-286
September 16, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
117.649
Denver
132.618
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 15
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 5 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-5 1/2); Over

NY Giants @ Dallas

Game 287-288
September 16, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
130.817
Dallas
127.289
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 3 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+3); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Be careful not to overreact to these results when betting the NFL Week 2 odds
Steve Paul

Is Ryan Fitzpatrick the best QB in the NFL? Are the Buffalo Bills the worst team in NFL history? Those might seem like crazy questions (at least the first one does…) but if you could only base your answer on Week 1, I think is “yes” to both.

As usual early in the season, we’re left trying to decide what’s real and what’s not as we look forward to Week 2. Let’s talk generally about regression before diving into some more specific situations.

Regression to the mean sounds straightforward but is easy to miss. The idea is simple, after an extreme performance the next one will generally be closer to the average. Once you learn about it, you see it everywhere.

Throw a pick 6 - maybe on your first ever NFL throw? The very next throw is likely to be better. Put up an MVP season and get put on the cover of Madden? Next season is likely to be worse. The smaller the sample or bigger the outlier, the more regression you can expect (I’m looking at you Ryan Fitzpatrick).

Now let’s size up some of the outliers from Week 1 and what to expect in Week 2.

Big winners/losers in Week 1

Five teams won by more than 10 points in Week 1: should we expect their good play to continue? History would suggest not so much. Since 2002, teams that win by 10 or more points in Week 1 are just 60-58 straight up and 54-58-6 ATS in Week 2.

Similarly, the big losers tend to perform better in Week 2. They’re only 51-66 straight up – teams that lose by 10-plus tend to be below average teams – but 57-56-4 ATS.

The takeaway: don’t let one performance drastically affect your Week 2 projections for a team.

Offensive explosions and defensive stalwarts

We saw a number of offenses go crazy in Week 1, perhaps most impressively the Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Bucs. Again, these teams have a history of coming back to earth in Week 2. Since 2002, teams who scored 35 points or more in Week 1 averaged just 22.3 points in Week 2 - versus 18.8 points for teams scoring 10 points or fewer in Week 1. Those teams putting up a lot of points are better offenses, just not nearly as much as it might at first appear.

What about the great/terrible defensive performances? I’m thinking you see the trend by now. The “great” Week 1 defenses are better than the terrible ones, but only by about three points. Don’t make the mistake of completely ignoring a one-game sample, but be careful how far you move your projections.

Potential overreactions

The total for the Chargers at Bills matchup has dropped from 44.5 to 43 after the Bills’ disastrous opening game. With Josh Allen starting at QB, we have a likely regression candidate against an explosive Chargers offense and a Bolts defense that struggled in Week 1. Put me down for the Over.

The Cardinals at Rams total has dropped two points to 45 and the line has moved to -13 after Arizona struggled in Week 1. We saw Oakland move the ball well versus the Rams before Derek Carr’s second-half implosion, and I’m willing to bet David Johnson & Co. rebound a bit after a slow start.

One move that’s warranted based on Week 1 is the Chiefs-Steelers total going up three points, from 49.5 to 52.5. For those players we don’t have much of a sample on (Pat Mahomes and James Conner for example), we should be willing to adjust more. Both looked great in Week 1, and Kansas City confirmed that its defense is as bad or worse than we expected it to be after 2017. Unless this number skyrockets out of control, I won’t be going anywhere near the Under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Underdogs: Week 2 pointspread picks and predictions
Jason Logan

Oddsmakers tend to shy away from a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest. Unless that one-legged man is Aaron Rodgers.

The Green Bay Packers quarterback proved he’s just as dangerous with one good wheel as he is with two, bringing the Cheeseheads back from the dead to sting the Chicago Bears in the fourth quarter last Sunday night.

And now, Green Bay – with Rodgers’ health reaching Robert Stack-levels of mystery – is a slim home favorite hosting the Minnesota Vikings in Week 2.

Rarely, do NFL underdog bettors get to play on a quality team like the Vikings. And even more rare is that quality squad taking on an injured playcaller with a so-so team around them. And even more, more rare – like steak tartar and a sensible Twitter debate – has that elite team been responsible for sidelining said quarterback with injury just last season.

Minnesota getting the points is the "talking rainbow unicorn" of underdog bets – at least two weeks into the young 2018 season (last year’s was the Colts +1 at home to Cleveland. Indianapolis won 31-28).

It’s not only what the Vikes defense can do against a less-than-mobile Rodgers that has me seeing purple. I love what I saw from Kirk Cousins and his receivers in Week 1’s win over San Francisco. Minnesota’s $84-million-dollar man was completely in sync with his targets and even when plays broke down and Cousins was under pressure, his guys knew where to be and he knew where to find them.

It’s good to see the Vikings and Packers getting their money’s worth out of both QBs in this game – there’s potentially $264 million under center Sunday – but I’m not much for buying damaged goods. No matter how hard that one-legged man can kick.

Pick: Minnesota +1

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-3, 43.5)

Sam Darnold’s coming-out party on Monday Night Football is overshadowing what the Dolphins did in Week 1. Miami grabbed a 27-20 victory versus Tennessee as a 1-point home dog in a very weird and wild game, that challenged a Red Sox-Yankees ALCS Game 7 in terms of length.

The Fins got a good/bad performance from Ryan Tannehill but looked strong on the ground, amounting 120 yards rushing from Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake. That’s pretty good considering this Titans defense hung its hat on stopping the run last season (only 3.6 yards against per carry).

The Jets' run stopping is worse than Tennessee. Much worse. Sure, New York limited the Lions to only 39 yards on the ground Monday, but Detroit had to abandon the run after falling behind. New York did little to stop opponents’ running backs in the preseason and allowed 118 yards against on the ground per game last year.

I also expect the Miami pass rush to show up after posting a goose egg in the sacks column versus Tennessee. Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn will rebound in Week 2, and Darnold’s shooting star will fall to earth and leave a nasty grease stain on the grass at MetLife Stadium.

Pick: Miami +3

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 42.5)

Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley rolled over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1. Now, if they could just get the rest of the Giants to come along. New York received 74 percent of its offensive gains from those two players in a 20-15 loss in Week 1 – a game in which the G-Men outgained the Jags by 19 yards.

Those two stars will shine under the Sunday Night Football spotlight in Week 2, coming to AT&T Stadium to face the one-dimensional Dallas Cowboys. That said, Dallas will be more dynamic with the football – having a week to add new wrinkles and iron out others. That shouldn’t be too hard, considering the Cowboys' stagnent mud puddle of a playbook spawned legions of blood-sucking mosquitos but only eight points in Week 1.

I have a gut feeling that the Giants are going to sell a shit ton of No. 13 and No. 26 jerseys after this Sunday nighter, if they weren’t already.

Pick: N.Y Giants +3

Last week: 2-1
Season: 2-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park
RACE #5 - BELMONT PARK - 4:07 PM EASTERN POST
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD ALLOWANCE $66,000.00 PURSE

#2 H MAN
#7 PROLETARIAT
#5 NOLINSKI
#1 WUSHU WARRIOR

#2 H MAN takes a class drop (-3), is the overall speed leader in this allowance field sprinting at today's distance of 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has turned in "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of his last five outings, hitting the board in three of those "adventures," including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his 2nd race back. Jockey Irad Ortiz and Trainer Rudy Rodriguez send him "postward" today .. they've hit the board with half of their more than 200 entries saddled as a team to date. #7 PROLETARIAT, a 5-1 shot, has scored with a trio of "POWER RUN SHOW EFFORTS" in his last four starts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie
Fort Erie - Race 6

WPS, Exactor, Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta


Claiming $6,250 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $13,920 • Post: 3:42P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE JULY 16 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250, IF FOR $6,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (COLTS AND GELDINGS PREFERRED).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. DO THE MATH is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DO THE MATH: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TWO STELLAS: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). GAZCADER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4
DO THE MATH
8/5

5/2
1
TWO STELLAS
5/2

6/1
6
GAZCADER
6/1

10/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
4
DO THE MATH
4

8/5
Front-runner
83

80

84.6

77.8

73.8
1
TWO STELLAS
1

5/2
Front-runner
82

78

71.9

69.1

61.6
7
FAINNE GEAL
7

20/1
Stalker
80

67

73.3

57.5

48.0
3
PERFETTO
3

12/1
Alternator/Stalker
86

74

70.2

42.7

31.2
6
GAZCADER
6

6/1
Alternator/Stalker
83

69

67.8

74.4

68.4
5
COMEDY GOLD
5

4/1
Alternator/Trailer
74

69

78.2

73.8

64.3
2
BEEN WAITING
2

12/1
Alternator/Trailer
76

67

75.6

74.4

64.4
8
FIRECRACKER DAY
8

30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
85

79

66.8

63.6

51.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

09/16/18, GP, Race 9, 4.52 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.01 CLAIMING. Purse $20,000.
Claiming Price $10,000 (Races where entered for $8,000 or less not considered in allowances). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 - $.50 Bet 3 (Races 9-10-11) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 9-10-11-12)
Best in race - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
Top Horse Win Percent 30.27, $1 ROI 0.83, For Race Category Non-Maiden Dirt
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer FLAGS
100.0000 5 Duke of Miami 7/2 Lugo C D Gracida Ruben SFEWC
098.4287 1 (F)Spettacoli (ARG) 10-1 Vasquez M A De La Cerda Armando T
098.1052 4 More Illusions 5/2 Gaffalione T Walder Peter R. J
097.9055 6 Spintalk 9/2 Zayas E J Nicks Ralph E.
097.4706 7 Artist 3-1 Panici L Bates Larry
097.1401 8 Game Day Drama 8-1 Batista J A Arias Juan D.
095.5147 2 Sub Factum 12-1 Carmona K Garoffalo Jose L
091.0599 3 Rey Astray 30-1 Berrios H I Mejia Jaime

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 88

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JUNE 28. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 FOXY FRESH 2/1

# 6 PEAKED 3/1

# 4 CIOPPINO PASADINO 5/2

FOXY FRESH is my choice. She has been running strongly and the speed figs are among the strongest in this group of animals. Very good choice to take this race going in a dirt sprint. Recorded a formidable speed fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this affair. PEAKED - Trainers don't bring horses back this quickly without any reason. Should best this field here, showing very strong numbers of late. CIOPPINO PASADINO - Ought to come out solid - I have liked the way this filly has moved quickly to the front end recently. The average class fig alone makes this one a contender.