Monday 9-17-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Weather Report

Monday, September 17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Monday, September 17


NY Mets @ Philadelphia

Game 951-952
September 17, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Mets
(Wheeler) 16.618
Philadelphia
(Arrieta) 13.712
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Mets
by 3
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
-120
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Mets
(+100); Over

Washington @ Miami

Game 953-954
September 17, 2018 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Fedde) 14.433
Miami
(Richards) 15.694
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-150
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+130); Over

St. Louis @ Atlanta

Game 955-956
September 17, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Mikolas) 14.024
Atlanta
(Fltynwcz) 17.554
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 3 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
-135
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-135); Under

Cincinnati @ Milwaukee

Game 957-958
September 17, 2018 @ 7:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
(DeSclfni) 14.958
Milwaukee
(Miley) 16.866
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
-180
9
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-180); Under

Chicago Cubs @ Arizona

Game 969-970
September 17, 2018 @ 9:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago Cubs
(Hendrcks) 16.091
Arizona
(Corbin) 14.692
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
-135
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(+115); Over

San Francisco @ San Diego

Game 961-962
September 17, 2018 @ 10:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
(Suarez) 15.226
San Diego
(Mitchell) 14.446
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
-115
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-105); Over

Colorado @ LA Dodgers

Game 963-964
September 17, 2018 @ 10:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
(Gray) 15.432
LA Dodgers
(Ryu) 18.185
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
-150
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-150); Under

Toronto @ Baltimore

Game 965-966
September 17, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
(Borucki) 00.000
Baltimore
(TBD) 00.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto

Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto

Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
( );

[B]Minnesota @ Detroit

Game 967-968
September 17, 2018 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
(Moya) 13.882
Detroit
(Zmmrmnn) 16.047
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
-120
9
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-120); Over

Tampa Bay @ Texas

Game 969-970
September 17, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Glasnow) 16.411
Texas
(Sampson) 14.502
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-140
10 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-140); Over

Seattle @ Houston

Game 971-972
September 17, 2018 @ 8:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
(LeBlanc) 15.612
Houston
(Valdez) 17.629
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-165
8
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-165); Under

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh

Game 973-974
September 17, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
(Keller) 14.409
Pittsburgh
(Musgrve) 17.083
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 2 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
-165
8
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-165); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ballpark Figures - Week 25
Joe Williams

Streaky Teams (entering Monday)

Wins and Losses Streak
Baltimore 3-12 past 15 games overall
Houston 12-2 past 14 games overall
Philadelphia 2-6 past eight games overall
Pittsburgh 8-3 past 11 games overall
San Francisco 2-12 past 14 games overall

Over/Under Streak
Colorado Under 5-1 past six games
L.A. Dodgers Under 11-6-1 past 18 games
N.Y. Mets Under 4-0-1 past five games
Pittsburgh Under 12-4-1 past 17 games
San Francisco Under 17-2-1 past 20 games

Giant Fade

The San Francisco Giants have been a great parlay fade lately, betting against their futility while taking the 'under'. Over the past 14 games, the Giants have won just twice while the 'under' is 12-2 during the stretch, too. The Giants have lost AND the 'under' on 10 separate occasions during the 14-game streak.

That streak will be put to the test, as the Giants take it on the road to face the last-place San Diego Padres. LHP Andrew Suarez will take the ball for San Francisco, while RHP Bryan Mitchell works for the Fathers. The Giants have won just twice over their past 14 games on the road, and they're a dismal 1-8 across the past nine outings vs. RHP. The Giants haven't had a lot of luck inside the division, either, going just 2-5 in their past seven against NL West foes. The only good thing going for the Giants lately has been Suarez, and San Francicso has won four of the past five when the lefty kicks off a new series. The 'under' is 25-7-2 in the past 34 for the Giants against NL West clubs, too, while going 3-0-1 in Suarez's past four outings. The under is also 6-1-1 in his past eight assignments against divisional opponents.

For the Padres, they're just 16-35 across the past 51 against left-handed starting pitchers, while winning just 16 times over their past 53 divisional games. They haven't had a lot of luck at Petco vs. lefties, too, winning just once in their past eight at home against southpaws. While they're also a dismal 1-4 in Mitchell's past five starts at home, they have won four of his past five outings overall, so that might be the way to go against Suarez and the skidding Giants.

The 'under has cashed in five of the past six inside the division for the Padres, while going 6-0 in their past six games to kick off a new series. However, the 'over' is 6-2 in their past eight games, 20-6-1 in the past 27 at home vs. LHP and 4-1 in Mitchell's past five outings in San Diego.

Looking Ahead

Monday, Sept. 17

The Rockies and Dodgers square off in an important National League West Division battle at Chavez Ravine on Monday night. RHP Jon Gray will take the ball for the Rox, while the Dodgers counter with LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu. Gray is 0-0 with a .308 opponent batting average across just 9 2/3 innings over two starts against the Dodgers this season. However, he has really picked up the pace since the All-Star break, going 3-0 with a 3.77 ERA across 10 starts with 49 strikeouts over 62 innings and a .215 opponent batting average during the span.

For L.A., Ryu has been a tale of two pitchers. On the road, he is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in five road assignments, but at home he is 3-2 with a minuscule 1.51 ERA with 47 strikeouts and just six walks over 41 2/3 innings with a .223 opponent batting average. This will be his first meeting against Colorado this season, and that might be a good thing based on his history. Ryu is a terrible 0-4 with an 8.64 ERA across four starts against the Rockies since the start of the 2015 season. It's his highest ERA against any team in the league during the span.

Mariners LHP Wade LeBlanc takes the ball on Monday at Minute Maid Park against the Astros. He has cooled off lately, and the Astros might cool him off more. He is 1-1 with an 8.31 ERA across three starts and two relief appearnaces over 17 1/3 innings with a .347 opponent batting average against Houston this season.

Phillies RHP Jake Arrieta will work against the Mets on Monday at 'The Vault'. He is 0-1 in two outings against the Mets, but he has a 0.68 ERA over 13 1/2 innings with 11 strikeouts and a .188 opponent batting average against New York. Mets RHP Zack Wheeler has faced the Phillies just once this season, allowing three earned runs and seven hits over just 4 2/3 innings in a no-decision back on July 9.

Weather Report

There is a 40 percent chance of rain for the Blue Jays-Orioles battle at Camden Yards, so beware. The Royals and Pirates will be dodging plenty of rain drops in the Steel City, and there is a 60 percent chance of precipitation forecast for first pitch thanks to the remnants of Hurricane Florence moving up through the Keystone state.

They needn't worry about rain in Philadelphia, but the Mets and Phillies will face a stiff 10-13 mph wind blowing from right to left field. Four other games will be played under a dome, so the weather concerns during the early part of the week are going to be confined to the east.


Tuesday, Sept. 18

Yankees RHP JA Happ will work against the Red Sox, and he looks to stay red hot. Since the All-Star break he is 6-0 with a 2.61 ERA over nine outings spanning 51 2/3 innings while striking out 52 batters with a .219 opponent batting average. He is 0-1 with a 0.84 ERA in two outings against the Red Sox this season with a sparkling .214 average and 16 punch outs over just 10 2/3 innings. Boston counters with RHP Nathan Eovaldi, but it might not end well for the BoSox starter. He is 2-6 with a 5.68 ERA across 57 innings over 12 road starts this season, and the opponent is hitting .288 against him.

Cardinals LHP Austin Gomber takes the ball for Tuesday's outing in Atlanta. The former Florida Atlantic University star has posted a 5-1 record with a 3.78 ERA in nine starts and two relief appearances since the All-Star break. The Braves counter with RHP Anibal Sanchez. While he has a 3.01 ERA and 1.12 WHIP overall on the season, and the opponent is hitting just .217 against him, he is actually just 1-3 across 55 innings in nine home starts and one relief appearance. This will actually be his first appearance against the Cardinals since July 8, 2012.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Monday, September 17


STREAKING AND SLUMPING STARTING PITCHERS

Streaking: Brad Keller, Kansas City Royals (8-6, 3.04 ERA, $500)

It certainly isn't too often that we see a member of the Kansas City Royals rotation as our Streaking Starting Pitcher, but we have that very situation today. Over Brad Keller's last six starts he owns a team win/loss of 5-1 with an ERA of 1.85 and a WHIP of 1.1282.

Keller will look to keep the good times rolling with an interleague road start as a +160 underdog against Joe Musgrove and the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Slumping: Trevor Richards, Miami Marlins (3-9, 4.85 ERA, $21)

Trevor Richards is not a bad pitcher, but he plays for a bad team and that appears to be starting to wear on him a bit. Over his last seven starts, Richards owns a team win/loss record of 1-6. And over his last five starts, he's produced an ERA of 6.84 and a WHIP of 1.60.

Richards gets the ball today at home as a +125 underdog against Erick Fedde and the Washington Nationals.


Windy Baltimore

There is a strong 11-13 mile per hour wind blowing out to left field in the forecast for tonight's game between the Baltimore Orioles and the visiting Toronto Blue Jays at Camden Yards.

With lefty Ryan Borucki on the mound for the Jays the O's should feature a right-handed hitting lineup and will be able to get the ball airborn and into the jet stream blowing towards the left-field seats. It looks like the Orioles are going to go with a bullpen game, with lefty Sean Gilmartin potentially getting the starting assignment. This will mean a righty-heavy lineup for the Blue Jays, as well.

With the full game betting total likely to be set at 8.5 or 9 this contest should sail Over the number.


Glasnow's Road Struggles

At first glace, Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow has some pretty decent numbers thus far on the season. However, if you isolate his away stats he comes into tonight's start with a team win/loss record of 0-4 and an ERA of 6.05 away from Tropicana Field.

Tonight, Glasnow and the Rays travel to Arlington, Texas to take on Adrian Sampson and the Rangers. Sampson's lone start this season was a beautiful five innings of two-hit pitching last week in Anaheim against the Angels.

You can certainly find a decent price on this game if you're planning to bet the Rangers with both the full game moneyline and the first five inning moneyline both at +120.
Chavez Ryu

Now that we've dealt with the bad, Tyler Glasnow (above), it's time to look at the good. Tonight will be Hyun-Jin Ryu's eighth start at Dodger Stadium this season and he owns tremendous home numbers in his previous seven outings with a team win/loss record of 5-2, an ERA of 1.51, a WHIP of 0.98, and an opponent's on-base percentage of .250.

We expect the Dodgers to take the opening game of this crutial three-game series, but the price is pretty high at -165. With Ryu's success pitching at Dodger Stadium we are banking on Los Angeles getting to Jon Gray before the Rockies get to the Korean lefty. Dodgers to score first is currently priced at -120.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon

Sep 17 '18, 7:05 PM in 3h
MLB | Mets vs Phillies
Play on: Phillies -113 at BMaker

FREE PLAY on Phillies -113

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach

Sep 17 '18, 7:05 PM in 3h
MLB | Mets vs Phillies
Play on: Phillies -120 at BMaker

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Game #952 Monday Free Pick Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies failed to complete the 3-game sweep of the Marlins yesterday but should bounce right back here. Philadelphia sends Jake Arrieta to the mound and he has piled up 18 strikeouts in 12 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. He also has a sparkling 0.89 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Mets. As for New York's Zach Wheeler, he gave up 3 earned runs on 7 hits in just 4 and 2/3 innings in his lone start versus the Phils this season. The Phillies are 45-30 in home games this season and offer good value at the low money line price in this one. The Mets are 12-23 in road games with a money line range of +125 to -125 this season. Free Pick PHILADELPHIA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Sep 17 '18, 7:05 PM in 3h
MLB | Mets vs Phillies
Play on: Phillies -113 at BMaker

10* FREE MLB PICK (Phillies -113)
I'll take my chances here with the Phillies as a short home favorite against the Mets. Philadelphia got back on track this weekend by taking 2 of 3 against the Marlins at home and I look for them to carry over that momentum against a Mets team that is primed for a letdown after their big series at Boston. It certainly helps the Phillies will have one of their best starters on the mound in Jake Arrieta, who has a solid 3.40 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in 14 home starts. Arrieta has also owned the Mets with a 2.34 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 10 career starts against them. He's faced them twice in 2018 and allowed just 1 run on 9 hits with 11 strikeouts in 13 1/3 innings of work. Give me the Phillies -113!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins

Sep 17 '18, 7:10 PM in 3h
MLB | Nationals vs Marlins
Play on: Marlins +140 at Bovada

Free Play on Marlins +140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Sep 17 '18, 7:10 PM in 3h
MLB | Twins vs Tigers
Play on: Tigers -110 at sportsbook

1* Free Sharp Play on Tigers -110
My money is on the Tigers at basically a pick'em at home against the Twins on Monday. Detroit just took 2 of 3 at Cleveland over the weekend and will have the edge on the mound in this one. The Tigers will send out veteran Jordan Zimmermann, who has a strong 2.81 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Zimmermann was also sharp in his lone start against Minnesota this season, allowing just 2 runs (0 earned runs) in 6 1/3 innings of a 5-3 win back on Aug. 10th. Tigers will counter with Gabriel Moya, who is making just his 3 big league start, as Minnesota is basically going with all receivers in this game. Look for Detroit to score early and often against a Twins bullpen that owns an ugly 5.11 ERA and 1.456 WHIP on the road this season. Bet the Tigers -110!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker

Sep 17 '18, 7:35 PM in 4h
MLB | Cardinals vs Braves
Play on: Cardinals +123 at GTBets

Free Pick on Cardinals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Sep 17 '18, 7:35 PM in 4h
MLB | Cardinals vs Braves
Play on: Cardinals +123 at 5Dimes

Jack’s Free Pick Monday: St. Louis Cardinals +123
The Cardinals are tied with the Dodgers for the second wild card spot right now. They need wins and badly, and they got a big one last night against the Dodgers that will give them some momentum heading into this series with Atlanta. The Braves all but have the NL East locked up as they are 6.5 games ahead of the second-place Phillies. I question their motivation moving forward these last few weeks of the regular season.
Getting Miles Mikolas as an underdog today is a gift from oddsmakers. Mikolas is 15-4 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.124 WHIP in 29 starts this season, including 8-0 with a 3.86 ERA in 14 road starts. Mikolas faced the Braves on June 29th in his lone career start against them and gave up just one earned run in 6 1/3 innings.
No question Mike Foltynewicz has been one of the better starters in the National League this season. But Folty hasn’t been able to figure out the Cardinals. He is 2-2 with a 7.13 ERA and 1.924 WHIP in four career starts against them.
St. Louis is 15-3 after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span this season. Folty is 2-10 (-9.7 units) at home when working on 5 or 6 days’ rest over the last three seasons. The Cardinals are 20-7 in Mikolas’ last 27 starts, including 6-1 in his last seven road starts. St. Louis is 13-4 in its last 17 road games. The Braves are 1-9 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. St. Louis is 6-0 in its last six meetings in Atlanta. Bet the Cardinals Monday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

Sep 17 '18, 7:40 PM in 4h
MLB | Reds vs Brewers
Play on: Brewers -160 at GTBets

1* on Brewers -160

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Fargo

Sep 17 '18, 7:40 PM in 4h
MLB | Reds vs Brewers
Play on: Brewers -169 at pinnacle

The Reds salvaged a game in Chicago on Sunday to avoid the sweep and snap a three-game losing streak. The offense has been a mess as they scored five runs over those four games and now they head to Milwaukee whose pitching has been outstanding with a 2.53 ERA over its last 10 games. Cincinnati is just 28-46 on the road and more recent, they have lost 20 of its last 26 games. Milwaukee lost its final two games against Pittsburgh and now sits two and a half games behind the Cubs in the National League Central. The Brewers are still 46-29 at Miller Park which is the second best home record in the National League. The Brewers are 5-0 in their last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Additionally, Milwaukee is 15-1 in its last 16 games coming off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite. The Brewers hand the ball to Wade Miley who has been outstanding in his 13 starts and a near two-month stint on the disabled list has only not hurt him but has and will help him down the stretch. He has allowed more than two earned runs only once and the lone instance he did not, he gave up only three earned runs. Overall, he has a 2.23 ERA and while he has been better on the road than at home, his home ERA of 2.42 is not too shabby. Anthony DeSclafani counters for the Reds and he has been a mess since a hot start to August. He has posted a 6.84 ERA over his last five starts and going back, the Reds are 1-6 in his last seven starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Play (958) Milwaukee Brewers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Wilson

Sep 17 '18, 7:40 PM in 4h
MLB | Reds vs Brewers
Play on: Reds +165 at sportsbook

Free Play on Reds +165

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Sep 17 '18, 7:40 PM in 4h
MLB | Reds vs Brewers
Play on: Brewers -1½ +120 at 5Dimes

Dave’s Monday Free Play:
1* on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+120)
The Key: Trailing the Cubs by 2.5 games in the NL Central and clinging on to a wild card spot, the Milwaukee Brewers can’t afford to be losing to teams like the Reds. Look for them to win by 2 runs or more today due to their edge on the mound. Wade Miley has been a blessing for the Brewers, going 4-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 13 starts this season. Miley is 1-0 with a 1.27 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Reds while yielding just 3 earned runs in 21 1/3 innings. Anthony Desclafini is 2-2 with a 6.14 ERA in his last 5 starts against the Brewers, yielding 20 earned runs in 29 1/3 innings. Desclafini is 0-1 with an 8.02 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in his last 3 starts overall coming in as well. The Brewers are 15-1 off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Take Milwaukee on the Run Line.