Thursday 9-20-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 20

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TULSA (1 - 2) at TEMPLE (1 - 2) - 9/20/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULSA is 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
TEMPLE is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEMPLE is 1-0 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
TEMPLE is 1-0 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 4

Trend Report

Thursday, September 20

Tulsa @ Temple
Tulsa
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tulsa's last 5 games on the road
Tulsa is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games on the road

Temple
Temple is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games at home
Temple is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 4

Thursday
Temple (-3) won 43-22 at Tulsa LY, thanks to a +3 turnover ratio. Owls gave up 314 rushing yards in the win- they also beat Tulsa 35-24 (-14) in previous meeting in ’14. Tulsa is 0-2 vs I-A teams, giving up 455 rushing yards in the two games; they’re 10-3 as a road underdog under Montgomery, and 12-3 in last 15 games as conference road underdogs. Since beginning of last year, Temple is 0-4 as a home favorite. Owls upset Maryland LW, after losing first two games, to a I-AA team and to Buffalo at home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 4

Thursday, September 20

Tulsa @ Temple

Game 303-304
September 20, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tulsa
80.112
Temple
80.920
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Temple
by 1
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Temple
by 7 1/2
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tulsa
(+7 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tulsa at Temple
Joe Nelson

This week’s Thursday night ESPN game comes out of the American Athletic Conference with a pair of 1-2 squads facing off in what will be a key win towards bowl eligibility for the victor. Tulsa and Temple haven’t had the September starts they envisioned but both still have a shot at a successful season.

Here is a look at this week’s Thursday night game to kick off the fourth big weekend of college football.

Matchup: Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Temple Owls
Venue: At Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 20, 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: Temple -7½, Over/Under 55½
Last Meeting: 2017, Temple (-5½) 43, at Tulsa 22

After winning the AAC title in 2016 Temple lost head coach Matt Rhule to Baylor and hired Geoff Collins, who had been the defensive coordinator at Florida the previous two years. Last season the Owls slipped from the back-to-back 10-4 seasons they had in 2015 and 2016 but still managed a 7-6 season. Temple beat Tulsa on the road in the regular season finale to reach 6-6 before beating Florida International in the Gasparilla Bowl, all things considered a fairly successful first season with the coaching transition plus the loss of longtime quarterback Phillip Walker, a four-year starter that is the all-time passing leader for the Owls.

There were some important players that graduated for Temple last season, notably in the receiving corps but expectations were elevated with the Owls considered by many the favorite in the AAC East. The offense gained a spark when Frank Nutile took over at quarterback last season and the top rushers from last season returned along with several key starters on a defense that has been very effective in recent years.

Temple opened the season with a pair of home games and lost both games, falling 19-17 (-14½) to FCS Villanova and 36-29 (-4) to Buffalo. On its own neither loss was egregious as Villanova gave Temple a great battle early last season and is one of the better FCS programs. Buffalo meanwhile is considered one of the top MAC teams is off to a promising 3-0 start as it could be a more reasonable loss by season’s end.

Nutile struggled with four interceptions before being injured late in the Buffalo game. He may be healthy enough to return in the near future but he may not get his job back at Temple was rejuvenated last week under sophomore Anthony Russo who played well in the team’s 35-14 (+16) upset win at Maryland. The Owls took a 21-7 lead at halftime even with Russo throwing a pick-6 the other way. Early in the second half Russo hit a 47-yard touchdown pass and the Owls even survived a blocked punt returned for a touchdown in the fourth quarter to hold on for a 21-point win. Temple’s defense allowed just 195 yards and no offensive touchdowns as the Owls can feel confident heading into the conference season.

Tulsa has had a roller coaster run in now four seasons under Philip Montgomery, who was hired in 2015 after leading the Baylor offense under Art Briles. He inherited a 2-10 team and went bowling in year one, nearly upsetting Virginia Tech in the Independence Bowl to finish 6-7. In 2016 the Hurricane delivered a 10-3 campaign with a dominant bowl win. Last season everything went wrong as Tulsa inversed its record to just 2-10. A closer looks reveals a lot of narrow losses but also a major decline statistically on both sides of the ball.

Tulsa has decent returning experience and was universally projected for a season of improvement this season. How much Tulsa can improve remains to be seen. After being tested but winning 38-27 (-13) against FCS Central Arkansas in the opener, the Hurricane delivered a valiant comeback bid at Texas, losing by seven 28-21 (+21) despite falling behind 21-0 at halftime. Last week Tulsa had a big measuring stick game against Sun Belt power Arkansas State and came up short with a 29-20 (-1½) loss at home. Three turnovers were a factor as an interception return touchdown in the third quarter was a big blow ahead of Tulsa climbing back within seven points in the fourth quarter.

Luke Skipper was erratic as a freshman last season, starting six games including the upset win over Houston. He has been more accurate so far this season and already has more touchdown passes but he also has three interceptions after throwing only four in 127 attempts last season. His yards per attempt average is also down to 6.9 compared to 9.0 last season. Facing quality competition has been a factor and the challenge will be great this week with Temple featuring a reputation as a strong pass defense in recent years. Shamari Brooks leads Tulsa with 310 yards rushing so far this season as the Hurricane keep the ball on the ground almost twice as often as they throw.

The Tulsa defense has looked capable after allowing 37.5 points per game last season no foe has reached 30 against the Hurricane this season. Now 1-2 Tulsa is at a critical juncture in the season with three of the next four games on the road and the lone home game a difficult October game with South Florida. Tulsa isn’t likely to be favored in any of the next four games as bowl hopes could be extinguished without an upset along the way.

Skipper didn’t play in last season’s game as Tulsa saw a 7-0 lead a few minutes into the game disappear. Temple led 31-13 at the half and sealed the game with a punt return touchdown late in the third quarter in a 43-22 win. Temple had a 451-369 edge in yards with three Tulsa turnovers. Tulsa did rush for 5.8 yards per carry and 318 yards against a Temple defense that had good season numbers against the run as only Notre Dame ran for more yards against the Owls last season. Behind Chad President and Will Hefley Tulsa completed only six passes in the game while having two interceptions however. Nutile was sharp with one of his best games completing 20 of 28 passes with three touchdowns.

Up next Temple has another opportunity vs. a major conference team visiting Boston College and the Owls have a very tricky AAC road schedule this season playing at Navy, at UCF, and at Houston as it will be critical to take care of business at home. With a limited margin for error the rest of the way after 1-2 starts for both programs, this game could feel like a postseason elimination game already in September.

Historical Trends:

-- Temple has won the two recent meetings between these teams with wins in 2014 and 2017.

-- Tulsa won both meetings in 1987 and 1988 for a split in four games both S/U and ATS.

-- Tulsa is only 6-13 S/U on the road under Montgomery since 2015 but 14-5 ATS including 12-3 ATS as a road underdog and 5-1 ATS as an underdog of fewer than 10 points.

-- With a pair of losses already this season Temple is just 3-5 S/U and 2-6 ATS at home under Collins since 2017 though going back to 2014.

-- Temple is 17-10 S/U and 16-11 ATS in home games.

-- Temple has failed to cover in five games in a row as a home favorite and is just 6-9-1 ATS as a single-digit home favorite going all the way back to 1998.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 2
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 2 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 7-7-1
Against the Spread 4-11

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 10-4-1
Against the Spread 8-7

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-7
National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 17-12-2
Against the Spread 12-18-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 18-11-2
Against the Spread 15-15-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 17-14

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Colts (+6, ML + ) at Redskins, 21-9
chiefs (+4.5, ML + ) at Steelers, 42-37
Titans (+3.5, ML + ) vs. Texans, 20-17

The largest favorite to cover
Rams (-13) vs. Cardinals, 34-0
Chargers (-7.5) at Bills, 31-20
Falcons (-5.5) vs. Panthers, 31-24

Chief Concerns

-- The Pittsburgh Steelers stumbled to a tie on the road against the Cleveland Browns in Week 1, but returned home to Heinz Field where all would be well, right? Well, the offense did come alive with 37 points, but the lack of defense for the Steelers was concerning. The Kansas City Chiefs fired out to a 2-0 SU/ATS record, both on the road, and they piled up 42 points thanks to six touchdown passes from QB Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are looking like one of the early Super Bowl favorites in the AFC, averaging 40.0 points per game (PPG) over their first two outings, as the 'over' has cashed in two games. The only problem is that defense wins championship, and Kansas City has yielded 32.5 PPG. As far as the Steelers are concerned, they are 0-1-1 SU/0-2 ATS and they have allowed 31.5 PPG, which is very un-Steeler-like.

Clipped Wings

-- While the Chiefs are looking like a Super Bowl contender, the Arizona Cardinals are the co-leaders in the clubhouse after two weeks for the No. 1 overall pick, along with the Buffalo Bills. The Cardinals scored just six points in Week 1 in a loss against the Washington Redskins, and they were blanked in Week 2 by the Los Angeles Rams. Arizona has opened 0-2 SU/ATS, as has Buffalo. At least the Bills have managed some semblance of offense. Unfortunately, the two teams will not meet during the 2018 season.

Total Recall

-- The lowest total on the board was for the Houston Texans-Tennessee Titans (41), driven down by the absence of QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) and TE Delanie Walker (leg). Vegas was on point, as the Titans scratched out a 20-17 victory despite the presence of QB Blaine Gabbert under center. The second-lowest game was in the Los Angeles Chargers-Buffalo Bills (41.5) game, a game which actually featured CB Vontae Davis retiring at halftime, that's how bad things are in Buffalo right now. The Sunday night game between the New York Giants-Dallas Cowboys (42) was also expected to be a defensive slog, and that's exactly what we got.

-- The highest total on the board was in the Chiefs-Steelers (52.5) game, and both teams threatened to send it 'over' themselves. The Chiefs posted a 21-spot in the first quarter, while the Steelers had a 21-spot in the second. While Vegas was correct on that line, they were way off for the Cleveland Browns-New Orleans Saints battle (51). The Browns had six or fewer points in each of their four quarters, while the Saints had three points in the first and two goose eggs in the second and third before exploding for 18 points and snagging victory from the jaws of defeat.

-- The 'over' is 2-0 for all AFC North Division teams except for the Bills, while the Chargers and Chiefs have also posted an 'over' result in each of their two outings. In the NFC, the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers have hit the 'over' in each of their two contests. The NFC East is the division of unders, as all teams except for the Philadelphia Eagles are 2-0 on the 'under' so far.

-- There are three primetime games in Week 2, with two already in the books at 1-1. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 3-3 (50.0%).

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald (hamstring) injured his hamstring in the second half of the blowout against the Rams and he was unable to return.

-- Eagles WR Mike Wallace (ankle) left the battle against the Buccaneers on the road due to an ankle injury and he was unable to return.

- Rams PK Greg Zuerlein (groin) was injured in pregame warmups and he was unable to kick in Sunday's game, as the team went for two-point conversions instead of PATs.

-- Redskins RB Rob Kelley (toe) was unable to return after leaving due to a toe injury.

Looking Ahead

-- The Saints and Falcons will do battle in Atlanta, as New Orleans hopes to find a little consistency away from home. They're 14-5 ATS across their past 19 games away from the Crescent City, but they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five inside the division. Atlanta has managed a 4-1 ATS in the past five home outings, while going 7-3 ATS in the past 10 games played in the month of September. The 'over' is 5-0 in the past five for the Saints against NFC opponents, while going 7-3 in their past 10 inside the division. On the flip side, the 'under' is 8-1 in the past nine against NFC foes for Atlanta, while going 4-1 in their past five inside the division. In this series, the under is 7-2 in the past nine in Atlanta, and 7-3-1 in the past 11 meetings overall.

-- The Titans hit the road to battle the Jaguars in 'Sacksonville'. The Titans haven't been very good inside the AFC South, going 18-36-3 ATS in their past 57 against division foes. They're also a dismal 9-22 ATS in their past 31 games away from the Music City, while going 4-11 ATS in the past 15 on the road against teams with a winning home mark. Meanwhile, the Jags are 7-2 ATS across their past nine inside the division, and they're 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven in 'Duuuval' against the Titans. The 'under' has also cashed in six of the past eight meetings in Northeast Florida.

-- The Patriots will head to the Motor City to battle former coordinat Matt Patricia and the Lions. The Patriots opened as a touchdown favorite, and they'll be angry after getting socked around by the Jaguars and their punishing defense on Sunday. New England is 8-1 ATS in their past nine against teams with a losing record, while going 7-2 ATS across the past nine on field turf. For the Lions, the 'over' has cashed in eight of their past 10 at Ford Field, while the 'under' is 4-1 over the past five road games for the Pats.

-- The Steelers and Buccaneers will meet on Monday night in Tampa. The Steelers are just 1-8 ATS in the past nine games dating back to last season, but they're 23-9-2 ATS in their past 34 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Bucs have cashed in five in a row, 2-0 ATS this season thanks to some 'Fitz-magic', but they are 12-25 ATS across the past 37 home games against a team with a losing road record.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Opening Line Report - Week 3
Joe Williams

We're two weeks into the regular season, and we're starting to get a good idea about which teams are going to be contenders and which are going to be trash. We head into Week 3 with a few intriguing games on the NFL slate. The two combatants from Super Bowl LII, the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles, are looking to rebound after road losses in the Sunshine State. The Cleveland Browns also head into Thursday's game with the New York Jets as favorites despite the fact they're limping in on an 0-18-1 winless streak which extends 633 days and counting.

Thursday, Sept. 20

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-3.5, 40)

The Browns opened as a field-goal favorite across the board at a majority of the books, while Treasure Island had slightly less faith in Cleveland, opening them as 2 1/2-point favorites, although that line was bet up to 3 1/2 by late afternoon on Monday. The Stratosphere was the lone Vegas book to open the Browns at 3 1/2, but that was quickly bet down to three points, getting in line with everyone else.

The Browns are 0-18-1 SU, including 0-1-1 so far this season, although they showed a lot of spunk in Week 1 by erasing a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter to knot up the Pittsburgh Steelers 21-21, while losing by a whisker on the road against the New Orleans Saints 21-18 due to deficiencies in the kicking game. The last time the Browns tasted victory was back on Dec. 24, 2016. You have to go back to Dec. 13, 2015 when the Browns were actually favored at home, a streak of 19 straight. They topped the San Francisco 49ers that day by a 24-10 count as 2 1/2-point faves. So far this season Cleveland is 2-0 ATS, while the Jets are 1-1 ATS, including 1-0 SU/ATS on the road.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 20

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NY JETS (1 - 1) at CLEVELAND (0 - 1 - 1) - 9/20/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 2-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 3

Trend Report

Thursday, September 20

New York Jets
NY Jets is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
NY Jets is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
NY Jets is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
NY Jets is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
NY Jets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland

Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 6-18-1 ATS in its last 25 games
Cleveland is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 14 games at home
Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 3


Thursday
Jets (1-1) @ Browns (0-1-1)— Hue Jackson is 1-32-1 as coach of the Browns; they’re 0-2 as a favorite under his watch, losing to Colts/Jets as favorites LY- Browns are 0-5 vs spread under Jackson in games with spread of 3 or less points. Over last decade, Cleveland is 8-18-2 when a home favorite. Under Bowles, Jets are 5-7-3 as road underdogs, 9-11-2 in games with spread of 3 or less. Jets won last five series games, last two 31-28/17-14; they’re 3-1 vs Browns here, with only loss in 2006. Browns signed new kicker after last guy missed 2 FG’s, 2 PAT’s in Superdome LW; Cleveland is 0-1-1 despite a +6 turnover ratio. Jets outgained their first two opponents, but have turned ball over five times, scored only 13 points in six red zone drives.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 3

Thursday, September 20

NY Jets @ Cleveland

Game 301-302
September 20, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
126.046
Cleveland
130.903
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 5
31
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 3
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-3); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 3
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Sept. 20

N.Y. JETS at CLEVELAND (NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Browns SU winless streak at 19 one. Jets have won 3-point decisions in Cleveland the past two seasons. Cleve was “under’ 7-1 last 8 at home prior to opener, which depending upon when bet could have been “under” as well.
Tech Edge: Slight to Jets and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE BROWNS ARE FAVORED!

For the first time since 2015, the Cleveland Browns are favored at home as the line is at -3 against the Jets for Thursday Night Football. It’s fun news for Browns fans but let’s look elsewhere for a safer bet instead of backing a team that hasn't won in 634 days.

The total has been set at 39.5 and it’s easy to see why it’s one of the lowest totals of the season. The Browns have been great defensively so far with five forced fumbles, seven sacks, and three interceptions against the high-flying offenses of the Steelers and Saints. Offensively, they grind it out with the run game and are averaging 270 rushing yards per game, fifth in the NFL. The Jets’ offensive line really struggled to protect Sam Darnold in Week 2 as Miami sacked him three times and hit him five times. Bettors should expect a defensive battle on Thursday Night and we’re recommending the Under 39.5.


BROWNS THINK THEY KNOW DARNOLD

One more for the Thursday nighter. The Browns did their due diligence on Darnold before electing to take Baker Mayfield with the top pick and they hope to use what they learned in the scouting process to their advantage. “We have an idea of who we’re playing — there’s no doubt,” Browns coach Hue Jackson said on Tuesday.

Darnold’s production has been completely related to game flow so far this season as he threw for just 198 yards after the Jets had a big lead in Week 1 and then exploded for 334 yards as he played from behind for all of Week 2. On Thursday, Darnold faces a Brown defense that held Drew Brees to 243 yards last week and forced Ben Roethlisberger into five turnovers in Week 1. Add in the fact that his O-line is a big concern and that he’s playing on a short week for the first time in his young career and we’re taking the Under on his total passing yards.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

There are eight NFL teams with perfect 2-0 ATS records to start the season. Here they are:

Bears 2-0
Bengals 2-0
Browns 2-0
Jaguars 2-0
Chiefs 2-0
Rams 2-0
Dolphins 2-0
Buccaneers 2-0


There are seven NFL teams with less-than-perfect 0-2 ATS records to start the season. Here they are:

Cardinals 0-2
Bills 0-2
Texans 0-2
Saints 0-2
Giants 0-2
Steelers 0-2
49ers 0-2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Sep 20 '18, 3:35 PM in 1h
MLB | LAA vs OAK
Play on: OVER 9 +105

1* Free Pick on Angels/A's OVER 9
The A's and Angles should have no problem going OVER the total in Thursday's series finale. The OVER is 4-0 in Oakland's last 4 games and has cashed in 10 of the A's last 11 home games. OVER is also 27-11-2 in the A's last 40 games against division opponents, including 7 straight OVERs between these two teams when they meet up at the Coliseum.
Oakland has done most of the heavy lifting, as they come in averaging 5.9 runs/game over their last 7. They have torched LA's pitching for 17 runs on 17 hits in the first two games of the series and I look for them to put another big number on the board against Angels starter Matt Shoemaker.
OVER has cashed in 6 of Shoemakers last 8 starts, is 4-1 in his last 5 starts on the road and 6-0-1 in his last 7 when he takes the mound in Game 3 of a series. OVER is also a perfect 4-0 in Shoemakers last 4 starts against the A's. Take the OVER!