Friday 9-21-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 15
David Schwab

In a shortened Week 14 schedule in the CFL, British Columbia climbed out of last place in the West Division with an important 32-14 victory against Montreal on Friday as a three-point road favorite.

Saturday’s doubleheader of betting action north of the border started with Calgary rolling over Hamilton 43-28 as a slight 2 ½-point favorite on the road. Later that night, Ottawa regained first place in the East Division with a 30-25 upset against Saskatchewan as a five-point underdog on the road.

Friday, Sept. 21

Montreal Alouettes (3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (5-7 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Winnipeg -10
Total: 52

Game Overview

The Alouettes’ brief two-game straight-up winning streak came to an end on Friday with the loss to British Columbia. This was the first time they failed to cover against the spread in their last five contests. Antonio Pipkin continued to get the call at quarterback, but struggled to complete just 50 percent of his 22 passing attempts for a total of 95 yards passing while also tossing four interceptions. The only bright spot in that game was his 69 yards rushing on nine carries.

Winnipeg comes of its bye week with a four-game losing streak both SU and ATS. In the first meeting this season against Montreal, the Blue Bombers cruised to a 56-10 victory as three-point favorites on the road. They are 3-2-1 ATS in six previous home games this season and 4-3-1 ATS when closing as a favorite. The total has gone OVER the closing line in six of their last seven games.

Betting Trends

-- Montreal has a 3-1-1 edge ATS in its last five road games against the Blue Bombers and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last six meetings in Winnipeg.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 15

Friday, September 21

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MONTREAL (3 - 9) at WINNIPEG (5 - 7) - 9/21/2018, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Friday since 1996.
MONTREAL is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 9 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 3-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 4-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 15

Trend Report

Friday, September 21

Montreal Alouettes
Montreal is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Montreal is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games
Montreal is 3-20 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games
Montreal is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Montreal is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Montreal's last 8 games on the road
Montreal is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Winnipeg
Montreal is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
Montreal is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Winnipeg is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Winnipeg is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Winnipeg's last 8 games at home
Winnipeg is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Montreal
Winnipeg is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing Montreal
Winnipeg is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Montreal
Winnipeg is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing at home against Montreal

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Dunkel

Week 15


Friday, September 21

Montreal @ Winnipeg

Game 651-652
September 21, 2018 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Montreal
103.420
Winnipeg
111.512
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Winnipeg
by 8
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Winnipeg
by 10 1/2
53
Dunkel Pick:
Montreal
(+10 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 15


Montreal (3-9) @ Winnipeg (5-7) (-10.5, 52)— Blue Bombers won last four series games, scoring 40.8 ppg; they crushed Montreal 56-10 in first meeting, back in June. Alouettes did cover their last three visits to Manitoba. Over is 5-1 in last six series games. Montreal won two of its last three games; they covered last five road games. Four of their last five games stayed under the total. Winnipeg lost its last four games, giving up 36.2 ppg; they lost 32-27/44-21 in last two home games- six of their last seven games went over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

College Football Week 3 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 50-14
Against the Spread 26-36-2

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 45-19
Against the Spread 29-33-2

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 35-28-1

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up (neutral site) 1-0

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under (neutral site) 1-0

The largest underdogs to win straight up
BYU (+23.5, ML +1075) at Wisconsin, 24-21
Akron (+21, ML +900) at Northwestern, 39-34
Temple (+15.5, ML +550) at Maryland, 35-14
LSU (+10, ML +320) at Auburn, 22-21
Troy (+10, ML +300) at Nebraska, 24-19

The largest favorites to cover
Utah State (-47.5) vs. Tennessee Tech, 73-12
Western Michigan (-46.5) vs. Delaware State, 68-0
Cincinnati (-43) vs. Alabama A&M, 63-7
Penn State (-35) vs. Kent State, 63-10
Georgia (-34.5) vs. Middle Tennessee, 49-7

Top 25 Notes

-- There were plenty of takers on Mississippi catching 23 points at home aginst top-ranked Alabama. It wasn't nearly enough, as the Crimson Tide steamrolled the Rebels by a 62-7 score for their third cover in as many outings. 'Bama has been favored by 23 or more points in every outing so far, but they haven't won by less than 37 so far. Alabama is averaging 56.7 points per game (PPG) through three outings with the 'over' going 3-0. ... It was the final game before Urban Meyer is allowed to come back, and Ohio State made sure he returned to a team that is 3-0 SU. The Buckeyes and TCU were locked in a defensive battle at Jerry World, but suddenly Ohio State erupted for 20 points in a four-minute span to pick up the victory. However, the Horned Frogs were able to hang on for the cover at most shops. ... Washington opened the conference slate with a hard-fought and hard-hitting 21-7 victory at Utah. The 'under' is a perfect 3-0 so far this season for the Huskies, as they have allowed an average of just 10.3 PPG.

-- Arizona State arrived in the Top 25 this week and they were subsequently shown the door by San Diego State, 28-21. The Sun Devils struggled on offense until the very end of the game, and their rushing defense struggled mightily. That's not a good sign with Washington looming next time out.

-- Boise State-Oklahoma State was one of the most underrated games on the Week 3 card. After a scoreless first quarter, things started to get away from the Broncos in a hurry, and the Cowboys were able to pick up their second consecutive cover, moving to 2-0 ATS against FBS foes this season. Boise slipped to 2-1 ATS after routing their first two foes.

-- Wisconsin last tasted defeat during the regular season on Oct. 15, 2016 against Ohio State. Not many thought the Badgers would be in danger of that streak coming to an end against Brigham Young, but the Cougars had other plans. The Badgers not only slipped to 0-3 ATS on the season, but they misfired on a field goal in the final minute to lost 24-21 at Camp Randall, making no one want to jump around.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- Duke continues to play well, and they notched another road victory at Baylor, 40-27 to move to 3-0 SU/ATS. ... Georgia Tech headed to Pittsburgh and it was a rough road trip. The Panthers were routed last week, while the Yellow Jackets also suffered defeat. Someone had to bounce back, and it was the Panthers picking up a 24-19 win to drop the Ramblin' Wreck to 0-3 ATS. ... Clemson held on for a 38-7 win against Georgia Southern, ambling through a home outing against a non-Power 5 team. They had a bit of a hangover after their impressive 28-26 nailbiter at Texas A&M. The games wasn't particularly close, but it was the Eagles coming away with another cover to go 3-0 ATS with the 'under' also 3-0. ... Syracuse-Florida State was expected to be a close game, as the Orange were installed as three-point underdogs at home. It didn't turn out that way, as 'Cuse routed FSU 30-7 to give Willie Taggart another lose. Things aren't exactly going to plan under the new regime, as Florida State is 0-3 ATS so far.

-- Indiana is flying a bit under the radar, but they moved to a perfect 3-0 SU with a 38-10 win over in-state rival Ball State. The Hoosiers picked up their first cover of the season in three tries, while the 'under' connected for the second straight outing, both at home. ... Minnesota earned a third straight win and cover by whitewashing Miami (Ohio) by a 26-3 score. The Golden Gophers have allowed just 9.0 PPG through three games, but things will get a lot more difficult once conference play begins. ... Nebraska joined Wisconsin in the loser's lounge with a disappointing 24-19 setback against Troy. The Cornhuskers are 0-2 with both losses at home for the first time since 1947.

-- Kansas won against Rutgers 55-14, as they have earned back-to-back wins against FBS opponents for the first time since the 2009 season. It makes their opening game setback against FCS Nicholls State even that much more surprising. ... Texas Tech racked up a 63-49 shootout over Houston, as the Red Raiders moved to 3-0 on the 'over' this season. Defense is going to be an issue for this team, as they have allowed 48.0 PPG in two games against FBS foes. ... Texas bounced back with an impressive 37-14 win over USC, a team suddenly in freefall and unable to score on offense. The Longhorns earned their first cover in emphatic fashion and the defense allowed a season-low 14 points. Texas won for the 900th time in school history, joining Ohio State and Michigan as the only FBS schools in the club.

-- It's been a long time since UCLA struggled this badly, and an 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS start isn't exactly what the Bruins faithful had in mind when Chip Kelly was hired. But Fresno State came into the Rose Bowl and dropped the Bruins by a 38-14 score. Not only is it hard to figure a path to bowl eligibility, it's hard to see where UCLA is going to get a win anytime soon. ... Arizona doubled up FCS Southern Utah with a 62-31, and for the first time QB Khalil Tate looked like a Heisman Trophy candidate. That ship might have already sailed, but the Wildcats served notice that they're still a dangerous offense. They earned their first cover in three tries.

-- Tennessee did a good job on defense, shutting out UTEP by a 24-0 count. However, the offense still has a long way to go if they're going to be successful during the SEC gauntlet. ... Vanderbilt left a ton of points on the field in their 22-17 loss at Notre Dame, but they easily covered the 14-point number. The Commodores moved to a perfect 3-0 ATS while the 'under' is also 3-0 for Vandy. ... LSU tossed their hat into the championship contender ring by upending Auburn by a 22-21 score on the Plains. The Tigers are 2-0 ATS in two games away from Death Valley this season. ... Arkansas was dumped at home by North Texas of Conference USA, 44-17. The Razorbacks are 0-2 SU/ATS in two battles against FBS teams this season with the 'under' 2-0 in those games. ... Texas A&M improved to 3-0 ATS with a 48-10 win against Louisiana-Monroe.

Mid-Major Report

-- Temple went into Maryland and picked up an unexpected win after dropping their first two games of the season at home to FCS Villanova and Buffalo. ... Tulsa suffered a home loss against Arkansas State, as the Sun Belt picked up a big win. The 'under' has connected in each of the past two games for the Golden Hurricane. ... Memphis took apart Georgia State, 59-22, picking up their second win, cover and 'over' result in as many outings at the Liberty Bowl. ... Houston is averaging 47.7 PPG through three games, but they needed much more in their 63-49 loss in Lubbock against the Red Raiders. The Cougars slipped to 1-2 ATS.

-- Alabama-Birmingham picked up a nice win as 3 1/2-point underdogs at home against Tulane, 31-24. The Blazers need to tighten up on defense if they're to have further success, as they're allowing 35.5 PPG through two games against FBS foes. ... Middle Tennessee won't be applying for SEC admission anytime soon. They were blasted by Georgia by a 49-7 count, slipping to 0-2 SU/ATS in two games against SEC opponents. ... Western Kentucky suffered a loss to FCS Maine last week, 31-28. They bounced back with a 20-17 cover at Louisville, earning their second cover in two tries against Power 5 teams this season.

-- Northern Illinois picked up a 24-16 win against Central Michigan, failing to cover for the second time in three tries while the 'under' connected for the third time in as many outings. ... Akron made history with their win at Northwestern, earning their first win against a Big Ten opponent since 1894 when the institution was called Buchtel College. The Zips have fired out to a 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS start. ... Bowling Green topped FCS Eastern Kentucky in a surprising 42-35 shootout, failing to cover for a second straight game. ... Ohio failed to cover at Virginia, as the Bobcats slipped to 0-2 ATS on the season.

-- Hawaii made the cross-country trek to Army and the travel apparently caught up to them, as the Black Knights beat them 28-21 for a push at most shops. The Warriors also failed to hit the 'over' for the first time in four tries. ... New Mexico-New Mexico State was a high-scoring battle, with the Lobos posting a 42-25 win. The Lobos dropped the Aggies to 0-4 ATS, while the 'over' has connected in each of their past three outings.

Bad Beats

-- It wasn't a textbook bad beat, but 'over' (59.5) bettors had to feel good with 49 points on the board at halftime of Middle Tennessee-Georgia. The Bulldogs posted seven in the third, and there were 56 points with a full quarter to go. Under bettors lucked out with a scoreless fourth quarter.

-- 'Over' bettors in BYU-Wisconsin (52) were pleased near the end of regulation, as the Badgers were about to boot a game-tying field goal to force overtime. Oops. Wisconsin lost, and so did 'over' bettors.

-- Illinois appeared to be on the way to a win against South Florida, but the Illini folded in the fourth quarter. The Illini led 19-7 heading into the fourth as 14-point underdogs, but the Bulls outscored them 18-0 to come away with a 25-19 victory.

-- 'Over' (71) bettors were liking the way Bama-Ole Miss was shaping up, as there were 56 points on the board at halftime, and 66 points through three quarters. The Tide could only muster up a field goal in the final stanza, as the 'under' held out.

-- The 'under' (68) was looking good in Oregon State-Nevada left, with just 51 points on the board through three quarters after a scoreless third. Oregon State dashed their hopes with a touchdown with 4:40 to go, pushing the total over the finish line late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Early bettors like huge 'dog Texas A&M's odds at Alabama in college football Week 3
Patrick Everson

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has helped Alabama go 3-0 SU and ATS this season, as a favorite of 22.5 points or more in all three games. Can the Crimson Tide cover 26.5 at home against Texas A&M?

Week 4 of the college football season begs the question: Can oddsmakers put up a number that Alabama can’t cover? We check in on the opening lines and early movement for a foursome of games, with insights from Derek Wilkinson, sportsbook supervisor at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

No. 22 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-27)

Alabama faced monster pointspreads the first three weeks of the season and delivered each time. In Week 3, the Crimson Tide (3-0 SU and ATS) went to Mississippi as a 22.5-point favorite and left with a have-no-mercy 62-7 victory.

Texas A&M already played one of college football’s best in Week 2, posting a big rally against Clemson before falling just short 28-26 as a 12-point home underdog. The Aggies (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) followed with a 48-10 rout of lightweight Louisiana-Monroe as a 12-point chalk.

“I think bookmakers look at it as the public keeps betting Alabama, and Alabama keeps covering,” Wilkinson said. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of the wiseguys come in and bet A&M, with all those points. The line has already dropped a half-point.”

No. 7 Stanford Cardinal at No. 19 Oregon Ducks (+1)

Stanford is out of the gate 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS), including a Week 2 win over Southern California, but this game marks its first road trip of the season. In Week 3, the Cardinal took a step down in competition, dispatching UC Davis 30-10 as a 31-point home chalk.

Oregon is also 3-0, but failed to cover all three times against far inferior competition. The Ducks beat San Jose State 35-22 in Week 3, falling miles short as a 42.5-point home favorite. Oregon has yet to play a road game this year.

“I’m kind of surprised the number is that low. Some offshores are Stanford -2/-2.5,” Wilkinson said. “I think it’s because the public likes to bet Oregon. But in my opinion, that line is gonna go up. I’d think sharp bettors would take Stanford -1. I know the game is at Oregon, but Stanford is clearly the better team.”

No. 17 Texas Christian Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns (+3)

Texas Christian gave Ohio State a strong challenge last weekend, leading well into the third quarter of a quasi-neutral-site game at AT&T Stadium. But the Horned Frogs (2-1 SU and ATS) couldn’t hang on, falling 40-28 as a 12.5-point pup.

Texas bounced back from its season-opening upset loss to Maryland with a pair of wins, including a solid nonconference victory in Week 3. The Longhorns rumbled over Southern California 37-14 laying 3 points at home.

“It’s at Texas, an instate rivalry, so I think TCU -3 seems like a really good line. It feels about right,” Wilkinson said. “I’m not sure how they’re gonna bet that game.”

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+8)

Notre Dame isn’t winning by much, with all three games decided by one score, but it won all three nonetheless. The Fighting Irish (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) went off as 14-point home faves against Vanderbilt and held on for a 22-17 victory last weekend.

Wake Forest got a couple wins against lesser lights to start the season, but couldn’t quite keep up with Boston College in Week 3. The Demon Deacons (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) led on a couple of occasions, including 24-21 early in the third quarter, but ultimately bowed out 41-34 as 6.5-point home pups in a game played Thursday due to Hurricane Florence.

“I think that line might drop closer to 7, maybe even 6.5,” Wilkinson said, noting that Notre Dame’s three relatively close wins could make 8 points a little too much to swallow.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Long Sheet


Friday, September 21

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FLA ATLANTIC (2 - 1) at UCF (2 - 0) - 9/21/2018, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PENN ST (3 - 0) at ILLINOIS (2 - 1) - 9/21/2018, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PENN ST is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PENN ST is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
PENN ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
ILLINOIS is 129-167 ATS (-54.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 129-167 ATS (-54.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 65-93 ATS (-37.3 Units) in home games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 65-93 ATS (-37.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 87-128 ATS (-53.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON ST (3 - 0) at USC (1 - 2) - 9/21/2018, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
USC is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
USC is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
USC is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON ST is 1-0 against the spread versus USC over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON ST is 1-0 straight up against USC over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 4

Trend Report

Friday, September 21

Florida Atlantic @ Central Florida
Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida Atlantic's last 6 games on the road

Central Florida
Central Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Central Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Penn State @ Illinois
Penn State
Penn State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Penn State's last 5 games

Illinois
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Illinois's last 6 games when playing at home against Penn State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Illinois's last 5 games when playing Penn State

Washington State @ Southern California
Washington State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington State's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington State's last 5 games when playing on the road against Southern Californ

Southern California
Southern California is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Southern California is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Washington State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 4

Friday
Florida Atlantic/Central Florida haven’t met since ’03; UCF is off a bye- their game was PPD last week by hurricane in North Carolina. Since 2010, Knights are 26-17-2 as home favorites; since ’14, they’re 10-7 as double digit favorites. Owls gave up 525 yards in splitting pair of games vs Oklahoma/Air Force. Since 2012, FAU is 19-8-1 as road underdogs, but they are 2-5 vs spread in last seven games as double digit underdogs. Last six years, AAC teams are 13-12 vs spread when playing C-USA teams, 0-3 so far this season.

Penn State won four of last five games with Illinois (2-3 vs spread); they lost last visit here, 16-14 in ’14- they crushed Illini 39-0 in last meeting, in ‘15. Nittany Lions play Ohio State next week; they’re 4-5 vs spread in last nine games when laying 20+ points, 6-0-1 vs spread in last seven games week before playing the Buckeyes. Under Franklin, PSU is 6-3 as a road favorite. Illini is 4-7 vs spread as home underdogs; they covered their last four games as a dog of 20+ points.

USC lost last two games, at Texas/Stanford; they were outrushed 160-minus-5 in Austin LW. Trojans are 2-6 vs spread in last eight games as home favorites; since 2013, they’re 13-10 when laying a single-digit spread. Since coming to Washington State, Leach is 2-1 vs USC; Coogs (+5) beat USC 30-27 LY at home- they also won last visit here, 10-7 (+15) in 2013. Under Leach, Wazzu is 16-8 as road underdogs, 13-7 in Pac-12 games; they’re 7-9 vs spread in last 16 games as a double digit dog.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 4

Friday, September 21

Florida Atlantic @ Central Florida

Game 305-306
September 21, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida Atlantic
84.458
Central Florida
100.290
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Florida
by 16
84
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Central Florida
by 13 1/2
77
Dunkel Pick:
Central Florida
(-13 1/2); Over

Penn State @ Illinois

Game 307-308
September 21, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Penn State
116.270
Illinois
79.790
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Penn State
by 36 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Penn State
by 28
60 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Penn State
(-28); Under

Washington St @ USC

Game 309-310
September 21, 2018 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington St
90.176
USC
95.671
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
USC
by 5 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
USC
by 3 1/2
53
Dunkel Pick:
USC
(-3 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 4
September 18, 2018
By Bruce Marshall

FRIDAY, SEPT. 21

Matchup Skinny Edge

FAU at UCF...Kiffin just 1-3-1 vs. line in reg season vs. FBS-lvel non-CUS A foes. UCF has won more than it has covered, just 8-8-1 last 17 on board since late 2016, and 4-5 laying DD since LY.
Slight to UCF, based on team trends.

PENN STATE at ILLINOIS...Franklin on 6-2 run as visiting chalk. Lovie only 3-7 as home dog since 2016, and 5-12 vs. spread last 17 against FBS foes.
Penn State, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at USC...Helton on 4-14 spread skid since late 2016. Only 2-6 last 8 as home chalk. Leach 14-5 as visiting dog since 2013.
Washington State, based on team trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friday's Tip Sheet
Brian Edwards

There are three games on Friday night’s college football card, including a pair of excellent matchups in Florida Atlantic at Central Florida and Washington State at Southern California.

We’ll break down both of these games and briefly touch on Penn State at Illinois in Bonus Nuggets.

**FAU at UCF**

-- As of Wednesday, most betting shops had UCF (2-0 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) installed as a 13.5-point home favorite with a total of 75. The Owls were +400 on the money line (risk $100 to win $400).

-- I always say that games played on a short week are advantageous to the home team. In this instance, that’s the case even more since UCF saw its game at North Carolina last week postponed due to Hurricane Florence. Therefore, the Knights have had two weeks to get healthy and prepare for the Owls, who are playing their fourth game in four weeks. Unlike other road assignments on a short week, however, FAU doesn’t have to travel far. The bus ride up The Turnpike shouldn’t take more than 2.5 hours.

-- UCF has won 15 consecutive games, including a 56-17 season-opening win at UConn and a 38-0 home triumph over South Carolina State. The Knights covered the number as 24-point road ‘chalk’ in Storrs, but they failed to take the money as 52-point home favorites vs. S. Carolina State.

-- Josh Heupel replaced Scott Frost as head coach after a record-setting season with Drew Lock and Missouri as its offensive coordinator. He inherited a team that went 13-0 SU and 7-4-1 ATS last season. UCF returned six starters on offense and five on defense after senior free safety Tre Neal decided in August to bolt for Lincoln and rejoin Frost at Nebraska as a grad transfer.

-- The most important returnee was junior QB McKenzie Milton, who garnered fourth-team All-American honors in 2017 thanks to a 37/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Milton completed 67.1 percent of his throws for 4,037 yards last year. He also makes plays with his legs, rushing for 613 yards and eight TDs with a 5.8 yards-per-carry average in ’17. In UCF’s first two games, Milton has connected on 45-of-71 passes (63.4%) for 589 yards with a 6/3 TD-INT ratio. He has run for 66 yards on 10 attempts.

-- UCF sophomore WR Tre Nixon, who sat out last season after transferring from Ole Miss, has eight receptions for 154 yards and two TDs. Sophomore Gabriel Davis has 15 catches for 151 yards and two TDs, while junior Dredrick Snelson has 11 grabs for 135 yards. Snelson caught 46 balls for 695 yards and eight TDs during the Knights’ unbeaten ’17 campaign.

-- Junior RB Adrian Killins was a first-team All-AAC selection in ’17 when he produced 790 rushing yards and 10 TDs with a 6.5 YPC average. Killins has run for 127 yards and three TDs on merely 17 carries this year, averaging 7.5 YPC.

-- After losing three of the first four games of the Lane Kiffin Era, Florida Atlantic won 10 straight to win Conference USA and called the season with a 50-3 win over Akron as a 22.5-point home favorite in the Boca Raton Bowl. Nine wins during the 10-game surge came by margins of 14 points or more. Kiffin’s second team brought back five starters on offense, 10 on defense and lost just 18 lettermen.

-- FAU (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) started the year with a daunting trip to Norman to take on Oklahoma as a 19-point road underdog. The Sooners dominated early and often on their way to a 56-14 victory. The 70 combined points inched ‘over’ the 69-point total thanks to a seven-yard TD run by FAU’s Kerrith Whyte with 4:13 remaining. OU led 56-0 before the Owls got on the board with 55 ticks left in the third quarter on a Devin Singletary five-yard TD scamper.

-- In Week 2, FAU bounced back with a 33-27 win over Air Force as a 7.5-point home favorite. Kiffin’s squad appeared poised to hook up its betting backers until the Falcons blocked a punt and Lokota Willis returned it five yards for a TD with 50 seconds remaining to secure a backdoor cover. The Owls went ahead of the number four separate times during the game, but that was little solace to their supporters.

-- Sophomore starting QB Chris Robison, who started his career at Oklahoma, bounced back from a tough outing against his former school. Robison torched Air Force by completing 33-of-40 passes for 471 yards and three TDs without an interception. Junior WR Jovon Durante, who sat out last season after transferring in from West Virginia, had 12 receptions for 174 yards and one TD vs. the Falcons. Tavaris Harrison had seven catches for 138 yards, while Willie Wright had six grabs for 75 yards and two TDs. Singletary ran 16 times for 57 yards and one TD.

-- Singletary was a fourth-team All-American pick in 2017 when he ran for 1,920 yards and 32 TDs while averaging 6.4 YPC. He hasn’t been able to duplicate those stats this year, rushing for 210 yards and seven TDs on 53 carries for a 4.0 YPC average. Singletary had five rushing scores and 84 yards on 19 totes in last week’s 49-28 non-covering win over Bethune-Cookman as a 41-point home ‘chalk.’

-- Robison has completed 68.8 percent of his passes for 799 yards with a 4/2 TD-INT ratio. Durante has been his favorite target, hauling in 23 catches for 298 yards and two TDs. Harrison has 11 receptions for 195 yards, while junior TE Harrison Bryant, a second-team All-AAC choice last season, has nine catches for 135 yards. Wright, who paced the Owls with 56 receptions for 657 yards and six TDs in ’17, has 12 catches for 113 yards and two TDs.

-- FAU is 1-1-1 ATS as a road underdog on Kiffin’s watch. Going back to 2012, the Owls are 20-8-1 ATS in their 29 games as road ‘dogs.

-- UCF is 29-20-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2009.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


**Washington State at Southern California**

-- As of Wednesday, most books had USC (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) listed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 53. The Cougars were +155 on the money line (risk $100 to win $155).

-- Clay Helton’s squad trailed UNLV for nearly the entire second quarter and only led by a 19-14 count going into the final stanza of its opener at The Coliseum in Week 1. USC would outscore the Rebels 24-7 in the fourth quarter to pull away for a 43-21 victory, but the Trojans failed to cover the spread as 24.5-point home favorites. True freshman QB J.T. Daniels hit on 22-of-35 throws for 282 yards and one TD without an interception. RB Aca’Cedric Ware produced 100 rushing yards and one TD on merely 10 attempts, while Vavae Malapeai had 47 yards and a pair of rushing scores on eight carries. True freshman WR Amon-Ra St Brown, the prized five-star recruit, had seven receptions for 98 yards and one TD.

-- USC dropped a 17-3 decision at Stanford as a five-point underdog in Week 2. Daniels completed only 16-of-34 passes for 215 yards and was intercepted twice. The Trojans averaged only 3.1 YPC on 37 attempts for 114 rushing yards.

-- USC was fortunate to edge Texas at home in double overtime last season. The Longhorns avenged that defeat last Saturday night by capturing a 37-14 win as three-point home favorites. USC had negative five rushing yards on 16 attempts. Daniels completed 30-of-48 throws for 322 yards with zero TDs and one interception.

-- Daniels has completed 58.1 percent of his passes for 819 yards with a 1/3 TD-INT ratio. St Brown has 18 receptions for 304 yards and one TD, while sophomore Tyler Vaughns has 15 catches for 157 yards. Ware has rushed for a team-best 167 yards and one TD with a 5.2 YPC average.

-- USC star senior OLB Porter Gustin will miss the first half due to a targeting infraction in the second half of last week’s defeat in Austin. Gustin has 15 tackles, 3.5 sacks, two tackles for loss, two QB hurries and one pass broken up through three games. Also, junior LB John Houston (wrist), senior CB Isaiah Langley (groin) and freshman DB Isaiah Pola-Mao (shoulder) are listed as ‘questionable.’ Houston has recorded 12 tackles and two PBU, while Pola-Mao has eight tackles and one forced fumble. Pola-Mao didn’t play at Texas. Langley, who had 38 tackles and six PBU last season, has seven tackles and four PBU this year.

-- USC has compiled a 9-9 spread record in 18 games since Helton took over midway through the 2015 campaign.

-- Washington State (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) owns a 16-8 ATS ledger in 24 games as a road underdog during Mike Leach’s seven-year tenure.

-- With the loss of the school’s all-time leading passer (Luke Falk) and the tragic death of Tyler Hillinski, Falk’s promising heir apparent, there were questions about the QB position headed into the season. Well, unlike Jim McElwain who famously said at his intro presser at Florida that he could score points with his dog, Clara Belle, playing QB, Leach probably can score points with his dog under center. And to be clear, we aren’t calling East Carolina grad transfer Gardner Minshew a dog and certainly not one with fleas. Minshew has been outstanding for his new team, completing 70.9 percent of his passes for 1,203 yards with an 8/3 TD-INT ratio.

-- Washington State has posted wins and spread covers at Wyoming (41-19), vs. San Jose State (31-0) and vs. Eastern Washington (59-24).

-- Washington State junior RB James Williams has run for 137 yards and four TDs with a 4.3 YPC average. Williams also has 18 receptions for 127 yards and two TDs.

-- Tay Martin had 31 receptions for 366 yards and six TDs as a true freshman in ’17. He may surpass those number Friday night at The Coliseum. Martin has team-highs in catches (24), receiving yards (290) and TD grabs (three). Jamie Calvin has 15 grabs for 188 receiving yards.

-- When these Pac-12 rivals collided in Pullman on a Friday night last season, Washington State captured a 30-27 victory as a five-point home underdog. Renard Bell had three catches for 101 yards, while Martin has six receptions for 55 yards and one TD. The Cougars’ defense limited Sam Darnold to 164 passing yards and intercepted him once and held him without a TD pass. The 57 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 60-point tally.

-- Both teams have watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 overall.

-- ESPN will provide television coverage at 10:30 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Penn State will hit the road Friday night to take on Illinois. As of Wednesday, the Nittany Lions were favored by 28 points with the total at 60. PSU (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) had a close call in Week 1, needing to rally late in the fourth quarter to force overtime in a 45-38 triumph over Sun Belt power, Appalachian State. Since then, James Franklin’s team has dusted Pittsburgh (51-6 as a 7.5-point road favorite) and Kent State (63-10). Illinois (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) is off a gut-wrenching 25-19 loss to USF at Soldier Field. Although Lovie Smith’s club covered the number as a 14-point underdog, it allowed 19-7 fourth-quarter advantage to get away. FS1 will have the telecast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

-- BetDSI has a pair of MAC wide receivers with the shortest odds to win the Biletnikoff Award that goes to the nation’s top wideout each year. Buffalo’s Anthony Johnson is the +270 ‘chalk,’ while Toledo’s Diontae Johnson has +350 odds. A-Johnson has 16 receptions for 207 yards and two TDs for the unbeaten Bulls, who play at Rutgers this week. D-Johnson has eight catches for 179 yards and three TDs.

-- Gamblers might want to think about going into degenerate-as-hell mode in Alabama games by backing its team total ‘over’ for the game, first half and first quarter, in addition to the Tide in the game, first half and first quarter. Those plays are all perfect to date this year.

-- Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa is the +200 ‘chalk’ to win the Heisman Trophy at Sportsbook.ag. The next-shortest odds belong to OU’s Kyler Murray (+450), Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins (+500), WVU QB Will Grier (+500), BC’s A.J. Dillon (12/1) and Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor.

-- Let’s give David Cutcliffe a hat tip here right this second. He loses his star QB Daniel Jones, who had started 27 games in a row since he stepped on campus. ‘Cut’ also lost his best defensive player, CB Mark Gilbert, a first-team All-ACC selection in ’17 when he had six interceptions, to a season-ending injury in Week 2. Nevertheless, the Blue Devils went on the road and won by double digits for a second straight weekend, winning 40-27 at Baylor as short underdogs one week after collecting a 21-7 victory at Northwestern. This Just In: Dude can coach.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friday's Diamond Notes
Kevin Rogers

Hottest team: Pirates (7-3 last 10)

Pittsburgh is in the role of spoiler this weekend as the Pirates look to deny the Brewers a chance at gaining ground on the Cubs in the NL Central. The Pirates pulled out three consecutive one-run wins over the Royals to extend their home winning streak to eight, while not losing a game at PNC Park in September. Pittsburgh’s pitching has stepped up of late by allowing two runs or less in four of the past five games, including two victories at Milwaukee last weekend.

The Pirates trot out right-hander Ivan Nova in the series opener, as the veteran beat the Brewers last Saturday at Miller Park by tossing six innings and allowing one earned run in a 3-1 victory. Nova has delivered quality starts in five of the past six outings, while yielding two earned runs or fewer five times in this span. However, the Pirates have lost each of Nova’s last two starts in the home underdog role to the Braves and Cubs.

Coldest team: Rockies (1-6 last seven)

On Monday, Colorado led Los Angeles by a half-game atop the NL West as the Rockies faced the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine for a three-game set. Three losses later, the Rockies have not only fallen out of first place in the division, but Colorado is looking up at St. Louis for the second Wild Card position in the National League. The rocky road for Colorado continues on Friday with a trip to Arizona, who is in desperation mode after losing six of its past eight games to fall into third place in the NL West.

Colorado has captured seven of the past nine matchups with Arizona as German Marquez heads to the mound on Friday. The Rockies own a 5-2 record in Marquez’s last seven starts, although both losses came on the road. Colorado has won four of Marquez’s five starts against Arizona this season, including both outings at Chase Field.

Hottest pitcher: Luis Castillo, Reds (10-12, 4.52 ERA)

Cincinnati won its first road series opener since the All-Star break on Thursday by doubling up Miami, 4-2, while snapping a nine-game skid in away Game 1’s. Castillo tries to give the Reds back-to-back road wins for only the second time in the second half on Friday as the right-hander is fresh off a pair of solid underdog victories over the Cubs and Dodgers. Castillo put together nearly identical stat lines by allowing four hits and one run, while pitching into the seventh inning against two of the National League’s division leaders. The Reds have won 10 of Castillo’s last 15 starts, including four wins on the road.

Coldest pitcher: CC Sabathia, Yankees (7-7, 3.80 ERA)

New York needs every win down the stretch to secure home-field advantage in the AL Wild Card round, presumably against Oakland. Sabathia has not been at his best late in the season as the former Cy Young winner has allowed five runs in two of his past three starts, while the Yankees are winless in his previous four appearances. Two of those losses have come at home as a favorite of at least -200 to the Blue Jays and White Sox as Sabathia opened as a -300 favorite against the woeful Orioles. The Yankees have lost two of Sabathia’s three starts to Baltimore this season, including as a -215 favorite in July.

Biggest OVER run: Athletics (5-0 last five)

Oakland’s offense has busted out since blowing a 4-1 lead in Tuesday’s loss to Los Angeles. The Athletics dropped a 10-spot on the Angels in Wednesday’s shutout, then topped themselves with a three-touchdown effort in a 21-3 rout of the Halos on Thursday. Since Labor Day, Oakland has scored at least seven runs in eight games, while the pitching has tightened up since allowing 21 runs in a three-game span earlier this week. The A’s host the Twins this weekend, as Oakland scored 19 runs in three victories at Target Field last month.

Biggest UNDER run: Reds (7-0 last seven)

Cincinnati’s pitching has yielded two runs or less in four of the past six games, including allowing two runs to Miami on Thursday. The offense hasn’t been stellar by scoring three runs or less in eight straight games prior to Thursday’s four-run outburst. Luis Castillo is riding a four-start UNDER streak for Cincinnati, while three of his past four road outings have finished UNDER the total.

Matchup to watch: Phillies vs. Braves

Atlanta captured a huge series opening win over Philadelphia on Thursday to move 6 ½ games up in the NL East race. The Braves broke it open late by scoring four runs in the eighth inning to beat the Phillies, 8-3 and pick up their second consecutive victory following a four-game skid. Atlanta also cashed its fifth consecutive OVER as the Braves have plated 15 runs in the past two wins.

The Braves will look to take another step closer towards their first division title since 2013 as Julio Teheran takes the mound on Friday. Atlanta had won four consecutive starts made by Teheran prior to a 7-1 setback to Washington his last time out in which he lasted only four innings and walked six batters. The Braves have won two of Teheran’s three starts against the Phillies this season, including both outings at SunTrust Park.

Following last night’s loss, the Phillies slipped to 1-7 in their past eight road series openers since late July. Nick Pivetta will look to get Philadelphia on track as the Phillies have dropped six of the right-hander’s last seven starts. Pivetta hasn’t pitched past the fifth inning in four straight outings, but the Phillies have won each of his two starts in Atlanta back in the opening month of the season.

Betcha didn’t know: Will the Red Sox and Indians see each other in the playoffs in a few weeks? The two teams meet up for a three-game series in Cleveland this weekend as Chris Sale and Trevor Bauer square off in the opener. Bauer is making his first start since August 11 as the Tribe has won each of his past six outings, while the Red Sox are a perfect 9-0 in Sale’s last nine trips to the mound.

Biggest public favorite: Yankees (-300) vs. Orioles

Biggest public underdog: Rangers (+115) vs. Mariners

Biggest line move: Rockies (+120 to +112) at Diamondbacks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Sep 21 '18, 4:10 PM in 47m
MLB | Cubs vs White Sox
Play on: Cubs -1½ -119 at pinnacle

10* FREE MLB PICK (Cubs -1.5, -119)
I'll take my chances here with the Cubs on the -1.5 run line in Friday's series opener against the White Sox. The Cubs are coming off a much-needed day off and I look for them to go off in this one. The Cubs offense is loaded with power hitters and the wind will be blowing out to left-center at close to 20 mph. I know White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez has been throwing it well, but he's given up 18 homers in 14 home starts. This one also means a little more for the Cubs, who are fighting to hold on to their lead in the NL Central and will be extra motivated to make sure starter, Jose Quintana gets a win in his first start against his former team. Quintana comes in dealing, as he's got a 1.96 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in his last 3 starts and the White Sox are hitting a mere .229 and averaging just 3.7 runs/game against left-handed starters this season. Give me the Cubs -1.5 (-119)!