Saturday 9-22-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park
RACE #4 - BELMONT PARK - 3:04 PM EASTERN POST
The Noble Damsel Stakes
8.0 FURLONGS TURF GRADE III FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE

#2 UNI
#3 DREAM AWHILE
#4 HAWKSMOOR
#1 LIFT UP

Here in the 34th running of a Graded Stakes race which was previously called the Lexible Handicap, #2 UNI, a British bred entry, has hit the board in four of her last five outings, winning three times, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her last two starts. Jockey Joel Rosario and Trainer Chad Brown send her to the post ... they've hit the board with 61% of their entries saddled as a team to date. #3 DREAM AWHILE has hit the board in five straight, winning twice, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 2nd race back.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Belterra Park - Race #8 - Post: 4:50pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $17,500 Class Rating: 98

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#12 CAUSEWAY CAROLYN (ML=3/1)


CAUSEWAY CAROLYN - This horse obviously likes the conditions for today's race. Has notched the highest speed rating on the turf at the distance/surface. Reed brings her back again. I advise you stick with this hot mare.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SAUCY DAME (ML=4/1), #8 MYSTIC BRIDGE (ML=6/1), #11 TEMPESTUOUS AMY (ML=8/1),

SAUCY DAME - Never really did much at all last out on July 13th. Hard to wager on in today's race. Registered a somewhat easily forgotten speed fig last time out in a $25,000 Optional Claiming race on July 13th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that figure. MYSTIC BRIDGE - Could be tough for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put her on the questionable challengers list. TEMPESTUOUS AMY - This filly registered a speed rating in her last race which probably isn't good enough in today's event.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - CAUSEWAY CAROLYN - This mount looks good with such a big gap in the spread of the TrackMaster Power Rating between her and the second-rated horse.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #12 CAUSEWAY CAROLYN to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
12 with [1,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
12 with [1,4] with [1,4,5,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
12 with [1,4,5] with [1,4,5,8,10] with [1,4,5,8,10] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs

09/22/18, CD, Race 6, 3.16 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.20.02 STARTER ALLOWANCE. Purse $31,000.
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) - $.20 Single 6 Jackpot
Best in race - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
Top Horse Win Percent 17.82, $1 ROI 0.50, For Race Category Non-Maiden Dirt
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer FLAGS
100.0000 6 Seauxtale 9/2 Santana. Jr. R Moquett Ron E
099.5303 8 Lngtermrelationshp 10-1 Graham J Tomlinson Michael A. T
098.5505 4 Come On Dover 9/2 Hernandez. Jr. B J Montano. Sr. Angel O.
098.4269 3 Mutajaded 6-1 Borel C H Johnson Mike W. FWL
098.1344 2 One River Place 3-1 Morales E Glyshaw Tim
097.9400 7 Drunken Fridays 12-1 Saez G Bauer Philip A.
097.0052 1 Midnight Pleasure 7/2 Landeros C Ruis Mick SC
096.4284 5 House of Commons 6-1 Bridgmohan S Maker Michael J. J

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $7550 Class Rating: 80

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 DASHING JB 10/1

# 1 SHEZA CLASSIC RED 8/1

# 8 IMPROVISE 2/1

My pick here is DASHING JB especially at a such a nice price. Has performed admirably recently in short races, posting a nifty 68 avg speed fig. Has strong Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a wager in this contest. Has longshot potential and could prove victorious at high odds. SHEZA CLASSIC RED - The duo of Mendez/Skeen has one of the most favorable ROI percentages in this group of horses in this race. Skeen has a solid win percentage with horses travelling in short races. IMPROVISE - Could beat this group of horses given the 76 speed fig earned in her last outing. Always tough to beat Jones and Ayala working together, winning 20 percent of their races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lethbridge
Lethbridge - Race 6

Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)


Claiming $2,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $4,000 • Post: 3:20P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. ZAR'S STAR is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ZAR'S STAR: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designati on. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
4
ZAR'S STAR
5/2

2/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
4
ZAR'S STAR
4

5/2
Front-runner
77

77

69.6

65.8

62.8
6
CLASSY VINTAGE
6

5/1
Front-runner
78

58

53.0

33.6

24.1
5
GINWILLMAKEUSIN
5

3/1
Alternator/Stalker
67

65

0.0

60.2

54.2
3
IGOTADEAL
3

8/1
Alternator/Trailer
74

74

0.0

54.6

48.6
1
NIIGON ROAD
1

12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
72

65

28.8

53.6

47.1
2
BLAZING TEMPER
2

9/2
Alternator/Non-contender
62

63

0.0

43.2

34.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred)
Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred) - Race 7

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.) / $2 Rolling Double $1 Pick Three (Races 7-8-9)


Starter Allowance $8,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 95 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 4:58P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS IN 2017-2018 AND SINCE HAVE NOT WON A CLAIMING, STARTER OR OPTIONAL RACE EXCEEDING $8,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (ANY RACE AT FOUR FURLONGS OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * RED WINE AND DINE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TOMASINO: Horse ra nks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. RULE HE WILL: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. ST. RENO: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with hor ses coming off a layoff is at least 25. LOUDEN'S GRAY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
4
RED WINE AND DINE
5/2

6/1
3
TOMASINO
4/1

6/1
6
RULE HE WILL
3/1

7/1
7
ST. RENO
10/1

9/1
5
LOUDEN'S GRAY
2/1

9/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
4
RED WINE AND DINE
4

5/2
Front-runner
97

96

101.6

83.8

78.3
3
TOMASINO
3

4/1
Front-runner
100

91

86.2

92.2

87.7
2
CAPTAIN WALKER
2

12/1
Front-runner
86

87

81.4

77.6

68.1
6
RULE HE WILL
6

3/1
Stalker
97

107

86.3

82.5

74.0
7
ST. RENO
7

10/1
Stalker
98

92

84.0

89.2

81.2
5
LOUDEN'S GRAY
5

2/1
Alternator/Stalker
98

91

71.0

88.8

82.3
1
DEMONSLAYER
1

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
83

84

80.4

65.0

53.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Penn National - Race #4 - Post: 7:22pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 JOEY CAP (ML=8/1)
#2 ALTURIST (ML=2/1)
#6 HIGH DOLLAR KITTEN (ML=7/5)


JOEY CAP - Using this jock/handler combination is a smart choice. Was in a $4,000 Claiming race at Penn National last time out. That race had a class figure of 86 and he is moving down in today's race. A certain solid contender. ALTURIST - Aboard this horse on September 7th and Hernandez is right back in the irons in this race. This gelding should get a 'dream' trip in this spot. He looks like the only 'stalker' in this contest. HIGH DOLLAR KITTEN - Taking this jockey/trainer combination is a good choice. The September 2nd race at Parx Racing was at a class level of (84). Dropping to a lower class rank drastically, so he should be in a good position. The improved Equibase speed figures over the last 3 races is strong. Vazquez drops him in this event ready to win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 WITCHY'S LASTSTAND (ML=3/1),

WITCHY'S LASTSTAND - This pony will have a tough time winning this 1 mile dirt race. He just doesn't win races very often.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - JOEY CAP - Finished a disappointing fifth at Penn National on September 6th. But that was on a sloppy track. Expect much better in today's event.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #4 JOEY CAP on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $8700 Class Rating: 61

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 SM COUNTRY FURY 5/2

# 3 JOHNNY JEAN 3/1

# 7 COTTON KWICK 10/1

SM COUNTRY FURY is the most favorable wager in this race. Should be given a chance here on the basis of the figs in the speed department alone. Trainer boasts strong win figures at this distance and surface. With Meraz aboard him, this gelding will probably be able to break out quickly for this event. JOHNNY JEAN - The speed figure of 61 from her latest contest looks very good in here. Has decent Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sharp bettors like Stanford's odds in college football Week 4 battle vs. Oregon
Patrick Everson

Star running back Bryce Love took last week off to recover from an undisclosed injury, but he'll be back for Stanford tonight at Oregon, and bettors have moved the Cardinal to 2.5-point road chalk.

Week 4 of the college football season has plenty of intriguing games for bettors, even if only two contests pit top-25 foes against each other. We check in on the action and odds movement for several Saturday matchups, with insights from John Murray, sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook; Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US; and Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Vegas Strip.


No. 7 Stanford Cardinal at No. 19 Oregon Ducks – Open: +1; Move: +1.5; Move: +2; Move: +2.5

Stanford gave Heisman Trophy prospect Bryce Love a breather last week as he recuperated from an undisclosed injury, but he’ll be in the lineup for this 8 p.m. ET Pac-12 clash. The Cardinal (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) certainly didn’t need Love against UC Davis, winning 30-10 as a 31-point home favorite.

Oregon is still looking to cash for the first time this season, but has an unblemished on-the-field record. The Ducks (3-0 SU, 0-3 ATS) have had three cakewalk opponents, including San Jose State last week, when they won 35-22 as a massive 42.5-point faves.

“I’ve seen sharp money on Stanford, and it’s pushed that number up from -1 to -2.5,” Murray said of activity at the Superbook.

William Hill US, with more than 100 shops across Nevada and a pair of books in New Jersey, also opened Stanford -1 and moved to -2.5.

“We’ll definitely need Oregon,” Bogdanovich said. “We’ve got lots of Northern Nevada money on Stanford.”


No. 17 Texas Christian Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns – Open: +3; Move: None

Texas Christian looks to bounce back in this Big 12 battle at 4:30 p.m. ET, after giving Ohio State a pretty good test in Week 3. The Horned Frogs (2-1 SU and ATS) actually led well into the third quarter, but couldn’t make it stand in a 40-28 setback as a 12.5-point pup at AT&T Stadium.

Texas has a pair of wins since its season-opening loss to Maryland at FedExField. The Longhorns (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) had no trouble with Southern California last week, rolling 37-14 as a 3-point home chalk.

“All the money is for TCU,” Bogdanovich said. “We haven’t moved off 3, but we definitely need Texas.”

The Superbook moved off 3 early in the week, to 3.5, but only for a few hours.

“I’ve seen sharp play on both sides of this, but I trust the group on Texas more,” Murray said. “We are still dealing it at TCU -3.”


No. 22 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide – Open: -27; Move: -26; Move: -26.5; Move: -26

Defending national champion Alabama just mows down opponents and covers big spreads this season. In Week 3, the Crimson Tide (3-0 SU and ATS) boatraced Mississippi 62-7 as a 22.5 point road favorite.

Texas A&M is facing its second top-five opponent in three weeks, with a big Week 2 rally against Clemson coming up just short in a 28-26 loss as a 12-point home pup. Last week, the Aggies (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) dumped Louisiana-Monroe 48-10 laying 12 points at home.

“We took a sharp bet on A&M +27. That’s a group I really respect on that that side,” Murray said of activity on the 3:30 p.m. ET tilt. “But I’m sure we will still need the Aggies in a big way.”

William Hill US opened ‘Bama -26 and reached 27 before peeling back to 26.5.

“Sharps are on the ‘dog, public on the favorite,” Bogdanovich said. “We’ll probably need A&M, but I don’t think it’ll be a big decision.”


No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Wake Forest Demon Deacons – Open: +7.5; Move: +7

Notre Dame has been in a trio of one-score-games and come out on top each time. The Fighting Irish (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) went off as 14-point home faves against Vanderbilt and held on for a 22-17 victory last weekend.

Wake Forest got out of the gate 2-0 SU, but couldn’t keep it going in Week 3 against a significant step up in competition. The Demon Deacons (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) led Boston College at times, but fell 41-34 as 6.5-point home pups.

“It’s pretty good two-way action,” Shelton said of wagering at The Mirage and other MGM books. “We had some sharp play on Wake Forest on Friday – a sharp player took Wake on the moneyline, and we also had sharp money at +7 flat, so now were at Notre Dame -7 (even).”

At William Hill US, the Irish opened -8.5 and were down to 7 by Thursday night for this noon ET kickoff.

“Sharps are definitely on Wake,” Bogdanovich said.


No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs at Missouri Tigers – Open: +13.5; Move: +14; Move: +15; Move: +14.5; Move: +14; Move: +14.5; Move: +13.5; Move: +14; Move: +14.5

Georgia has gone beyond 40 points in all three of its outings so far, cashing in the last two, including a 41-17 road rout of South Carolina giving 8.5 points in Week 2. Last week, the Bulldogs (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) dropped Middle Tennessee 49-7 as a hefty 34.5-point chalk.

Missouri is also off to a 3-0 SU start (2-1 ATS), cashing in easy victories over Tennessee-Martin and Wyoming in Weeks 1 and 2, before a much tougher Week 3 challenge. The Tigers were laying 5 points at Purdue and got a field goal as time expired to squeak out a 40-37 win.

“We’ve got big bettors on opposite sides of this game,” Shelton said. “One bettor came in from out of town and played low six figures on Georgia, and also on Tennessee (vs. Florida). And a high-end player we respect played a similar amount on Missouri early in the week.”

At William Hill US, the number has bounced between 14 and 14.5, sticking at the higher number the past three days for a noon ET contest.

“It’s all Georgia, and 95 percent public money,” Bogdanovich said. “That’ll be a big decision.”

In other noteworthy games on the Saturday docket:

• Pittsburgh at North Carolina, 12:20 p.m. ET: The Panthers opened -4 and were down to -3 by Thursday, when things began to balance out. “We’re dead even to it, but sharps are on the ‘dog,” Bogdanovich said.

• Kansas at Baylor, 3:30 p.m. ET: The Bears opened -7.5, reached 8.5, then went back to 7.5. “We got a sizable six-figure wager on Baylor,” Shelton said. “We’re at 7.5, but only because we got some buyback. We’re still gonna need Kansas.”

• Florida at Tennessee, 7 p.m. ET: As Shelton noted above, MGM books took a six-figure wager on the Volunteers. That helped take Tennessee from +5 to +4.

• Arizona at Oregon State, 4 p.m. ET: MGM books opened the Wildcats -7, dipped to 6, then got back to 7. “We got a significant wager on Arizona,” Shelton said.