Friday 9-28-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Friday, September 28

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MEMPHIS (3 - 1) at TULANE (1 - 3) - 9/28/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
TULANE is 95-126 ATS (-43.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
TULANE is 37-57 ATS (-25.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULANE is 1-1 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 2-0 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UCLA (0 - 3) at COLORADO (3 - 0) - 9/28/2018, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
UCLA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
COLORADO is 42-74 ATS (-39.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 1-1 against the spread versus UCLA over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 1-1 straight up against UCLA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 5

Trend Report

Friday, September 28

Memphis @ Tulane
Memphis
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tulane
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tulane

Tulane
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tulane's last 5 games when playing at home against Memphis
Tulane is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home

California-Los Angeles @ Colorado
California-Los Angeles
California-Los Angeles is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 5 of California-Los Angeles's last 7 games on the road

Colorado
Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing California-Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 5

Friday, September 28

Memphis @ Tulane

Game 105-106
September 28, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
94.268
Tulane
76.793
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 17 1/2
73
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Memphis
by 13 1/2
66 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
(-13 1/2); Over

UCLA @ Colorado

Game 107-108
September 28, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UCLA
80.219
Colorado
87.420
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado
by 7
65
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
by 10
60 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
UCLA
(+7); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 5

Friday
Memphis won its last five games with Tulane, winning 24-14/38-7 in last two visits here; Tigers scored 111 points in winning their last two games, but lost 22-21 (-7) at Navy in their only road game this month. Under Norvell, Memphis is 4-3 as road favorites- since ’08, they’re 20-9 when laying double digit points. Tulane is 0-3 vs I-A teams, losing by 6-7-43 points; they lost at home in OT to Wake Forest. Under Fritz, Green Wave is 4-2 as home underdogs- they’re 9-13 in last 22 games when getting 10+ points.

UCLA is already 0-3, the QB’s father is ripping the coach; Fresno State outgained them 420-270 in the Rose Bowl last game. Bruins won four of last five games with Colorado, splitting last two visits to Boulder- Buffs won last meeting here 20-10 (-13). Since 2013, UCLA is 8-5 as a road underdog; they allowed 87 points in their last two games. Colorado gave up 329 yards in a 33-28 win at Nebraska three weeks ago; under MacIntyre, Buffs are 13-8 as favorites, 11-5 at home. Colorado had last week off; played a I-AA team week before that.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 5
Bruce Marshall

Friday, Sept. 28

MEMPHIS at TULANE...Tigers 7-2-1 vs. spread last ten reg season games and have covered seven of last eight laying DD. Willie Fritz 5-3 last eight as dog.
Memphis, based on team trends.


UCLA at COLORADO...Bruins have now lost 12 in a row SU away from Rose Bowl, 4-8 vs. line in those. Buffs were 10-2 as Boulder chalk for Coach Mac until LY’s 1-3.
Colorado, based on team trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friday's Tip Sheet
Brian Edwards

**Memphis at Tulane**

-- As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had Memphis (3-1 straight up, 2-2 against the spread) installed as a 14-point favorite with a total of 67. The Green Wave was +420 on the money line (risk $100 to win $420).

-- Mike Norvell’s squad has beaten up on three non-conference foes at the Liberty Bowl, thumping Mercer (66-14), Georgia State (59-22) and South Alabama (52-35). The Tigers are 0-1 in AAC play, however, dropping their league opener 22-21 at Navy in Week 2.

-- Memphis didn’t have it quite as easy against the Jaguars last week, however. After taking a 21-7 lead on Brady White’s 25-yard touchdown pass to John Williams early in the second quarter, USA responded with a pair of TDs to tie the game at halftime. Norvell’s bunch pulled away in the fourth quarter behind star junior RB Darrell Henderson, a first-team All-AAC selection last year who may push for All-American honors this season. Henderson ran for 188 yards and two TDs on 22 attempts. White connected on 22-of-29 throws for 292 yards and two TDs without an interception. RB Patrick Taylor added 75 rushing yards and two scores on 17 carries, in addition to catching three balls for 22 yards. Henderson had two receptions for 34 yards, while Damonte Coxie had eight catches for 113 yards and one TD.

-- Henderson is the nation’s leader in rushing yards (709) by an 81-yard margin. He is in a second-place tie for rushing TDs (eight) and is also second in average yards per carry (12.2 YPC!). Henderson has produced those numbers despite averaging merely 14.5 attempts per game.

-- White, the grand transfer from Arizona State, has been outstanding for his new team. He has completed 72.2 percent of his passes for 1,064 yards with a stellar 12/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Coxie has been his favorite target, hauling in 23 receptions for 353 yards and four TDs. John Williams has 15 catches for 146 yards and one TD, while Henderson has six grabs for 124 yards and one TD.

-- The new fair-catch rule on kickoff returns and some shrewd coaching from opponents have really cut into Memphis star Tony Pollard’s ability to impact games through the first four. Pollard had 1,649 all-purpose yards and 10 TDs, including four TDs on KO returns, during the 2017 campaign. He’s been limited to 133 all-purpose yards and two TDs so far this year, only getting once chance to return a kick that went for negative two yards.

-- Memphis is ranked fourth in the country in total offense (593.0 yards per game), fifth in rushing yards (309.5 YPG), and 10th in scoring with its 49.5 points-per-game average. The defense is 24th in the nation in total ‘D’ (317.2 YPG) and 22nd at the defending the pass (166.2 YPG).

-- Tulane (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) has split a pair of home games while going 2-0 ATS. Willie Fritz is in his third season at the school. His 10-18 SU record doesn’t appear inspiring on the surface, but it says here that he’s the right man for the job and has this program on the right track. Tulane, which is 16-12 ATS on Fritz’s watch, has already lost a pair of one-possession games this season, and it lost three contests by six combined points in 2017.

-- Tulane opened the season by hooking up its backers like me in a 23-17 overtime loss to Wake Forest as a seven-point home underdog. Since then, the Green Wave has beaten Nicholls State 42-17 as a 17-point home favorite, before losing 31-24 at UAB and 49-6 at Ohio State.

-- Tulane owns a 4-2 spread record in six games as a home underdog during Fritz’s tenure. Meanwhile, Memphis has compiled a 4-3 ATS mark in seven spots as a road ‘chalk’ on Norvell’s watch.

-- Tulane senior QB Jonathan Banks has completed 49.5 percent of his passes for 792 yards with a 5/1 TD-INT ratio. Junior WR Darnell Mooney has 22 receptions for 385 yards and three TDs, while senior Terren Encalade has 15 catches for 310 yards and two TDs.

-- Junior RB Corey Dauphine, a transfer from Texas Tech, has run for 289 yards and three TDs on just 25 carries for a 11.6 YPC average. Darius Bradwell has 236 rushing yards, two rushing scores and a 5.6 YPC average.

-- Tulane’s top two TEs, Charles Jones and Kendall Ardoin, are both listed as ‘questionable’ with undisclosed injuries. Neither player was on the field at The ‘Shoe last week.

-- Tulane’s defense is ranked No. 116 in the nation in total defense (495.5 YPG), No. 120 in pass defense (304.0 YPG), No. 99 versus the run (191.5 YPG) and No. 91 in scoring ‘D’ (30.0 PPG).

-- The ‘over’ is 3-1 overall for the Tigers, but the ‘under’ cashed in their lone previous road assignment. However, we’ll note that the 22-21 loss at Navy was played in a driving rainstorm for the entire game. Memphis’s home games have gone ‘over’ by 14.5, 18 and 21 points apiece (53.5 combined pts.).

-- The ‘under’ is 3-1 overall for Tulane, 1-1 in its home outings. The Green Wave has seen its games average combined scores of 52.2 PPG.

-- Memphis has won 11 games in a row in this rivalry, going 8-2 ATS in the past 10 encounters. Nine of those 10 victories have come by double-digit margins and eight have come by 14 points or more. The ‘under’ is 6-2 in the past eight meetings.

-- As of Wednesday afternoon, the forecast at weather.com was predicting partly cloudy skies for Friday night in the Big Easy. There’s only a 10 percent chance of rain, temperatures are anticipated to be in the mid-70s and winds aren’t expected to rise over four miles per hour. The field could be a little wet, though, as the forecast Friday afternoon calls for scattered thunderstorms and a 50 percent chance of rain.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.



**UCLA at Colorado**

-- My preseason prediction called for UCLA (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) to finish in the cellar of the Pac-12 South. It wasn’t a knock on new head coach Chip Kelly, but simply an assessment of the uphill challenge he faces in turning this program around. It hasn’t been pretty to date. Kelly’s debut was a nightmare, as the Bruins lost a 26-17 decision to Cincinnati as a 14-point home favorite. Next, they got run out of Norman in a 49-21 loss at Oklahoma. Then in Week 3, Fresno State came to the Rose Bowl and dealt out a 38-14 beatdown as a 2.5-point road ‘chalk.’

-- Both teams are off open dates and have had plenty of time to prepare for each other. As of Wednesday afternoon, most books had Colorado (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) installed as a 9.5-point home favorite with a total of 60.5. The Bruins were +290 to win outright (risk $100 to win $290).

-- Dorian Thompson-Robinson, the prize of Kelly’s first recruiting class, has been thrown right into the fire and has taken his lumps early in his true freshman season. He has completed 54.7 percent of his passes for 522 yards with a 2/2 TD-INT ratio. Junior WR Theo Howard has emerged as his favorite target by making 11 receptions for 185 yards and one TD. Caleb Wilson has eight catches for 128 yards.

-- Another true freshman leads UCLA in rushing. Kazmeir Allen has a team-best 161 rushing yards and one TD on just 21 attempts for a 7.7 YPC average.

-- UCLA came into this year on a 14-24 ATS slump as a road underdog over the past decade. However, the Bruins did get the money in their lone such spot this year when they lost by 28 at OU as 31-point puppies.

-- Kelly had dynamic offenses during his four-year run at Oregon that produced an incredible 46-7 record. So far at UCLA? Not so much. The Bruins are ranked No. 119 in the nation in total offense (319.7 YPG), No. 102 in passing yards (189.0 YPG), No. 104 in rushing yards (130.7 YPG) and No. 121 in scoring with their abysmal 17.3 PPG average. UCLA’s defense hasn’t fared much better, ranking No. 116 in the country (37.7 PPG).

-- Colorado is undefeated going into its Pac-12 opener. Mike MacIntyre’s club opened the season by beating up on Colorado State by a 45-7 count as a seven-point favorite in Denver. Next, the Buffaloes went to Lincoln and captured a 33-28 win at Nebraska as three-point underdogs. In Week 3, they knocked off FCS foe New Hampshire 45-14 but failed to cover as 37.5-point home ‘chalk.’

-- Junior QB Steven Montez has connected on 73.4 percent of his passes for 855 yards with an 8/2 TD-INT ratio. Sophomore TD Laviska Shenault has 26 receptions for 455 yards and three TDs, while K.D. Nixon has 17 catches for 181 yards and one TD.

-- RB Travon McMillian, a grad transfer from Va. Tech, has made his presence known early and often. McMillian has rushed for 290 yards and three TDs while averaging 8.8 YPC. Beau Bisharat has 144 rushing yards and a 7.2 YPC average.

-- Colorado owns an 11-6 spread record in 17 games as a home favorite under MacIntyre.

-- UCLA has been victorious in six of the past seven meetings in this rivalry, including a 27-23 victory last year. However, the Buffs covered the number as 7.5-point road underdogs.

-- When these teams met at this venue on a Thursday night two years ago, star QB Josh Rosen was out with an injury. Nevertheless, I backed the Bruins as a 13-point road underdog and they covered for me in a 20-10 loss. The game was tied at 10-10 early in the fourth quarter.

-- The ‘over’ is 2-1 overall and 1-0 in UCLA’s lone road contests. The Bruins have seen their games average combined scores of 55.0 PPG.

-- The ‘under’ is 2-1 overall for the Buffs, but the ‘over’ hit in their lone home outing.

-- According to weather.com on Wednesday, the forecast for Friday night in Boulder calls for clear skies, light winds and a low temperature of 45 degrees.

-- Fox Sports 1 will provide television coverage from Folsom Field at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.


**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Northwestern RB Jeremy Larkin has been forced to retire due to a recent diagnosis of cervical stenosis, which is not a life-threatening condition but prohibits him from continuing to play football. Larkin ran for 503 yards as a freshman in ’17 while serving as the back-up to Justin Jackson, who is the all-time leading rusher in school history. Larkin had five rushing TDs and a 6.0 YPC average last season. He also caught 11 balls for 115 receiving yards. Larkin was enjoying an outstanding year to date, rushing for 346 yards and five TDs with a 4.8 YPC average through only three contests. He also had 19 receptions for 127 yards. This is a crushing blow for the Wildcats, who have lost back-to-back home games vs. Duke (21-7) and vs. Akron (39-34) since winning 31-27 at Purdue in their opener. Pat Fitzgerald’s team if off an open date and has had two weeks to prepare for Saturday’s home date with Michigan.

-- San Diego State star RB Juwan Washington is expected to miss six weeks with a fractured clavicle. Washington had run for 513 yards and five TDs with a 5.2 YPC average through four games.

-- After true freshman QB Trevor Lawrence was named Clemson’s starting QB on Monday, Dabo Swinney gave the senior signal caller Kelly Bryant the day off to absorb the decision. Then on Tuesday morning, Bryant announced that he will transfer and play his senior season elsewhere in 2019. Bryant threw for 2,802 yards with a 13/8 TD-INT ratio in ’17, helping the Tigers advance to the College Football Playoff, where they lost to Alabama in the semifinals. Bryant had completed 66.0 percent of his passes for 456 yards with a 2/1 TD-INT ratio this year. He had rushed for 144 yards and two TDs. Meanwhile, Lawrence has a 9/2 TD-INT ratio. Bryant will have plenty of suitors and be immediately eligible next year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Remaining unbeaten ATS teams in FBS college football:

Utah State 4-0 ATS
Virginia 4-0 ATS
Washington St. 4-0 ATS
Florida International 4-0 ATS
Texas A&M 4-0 ATS
West Virginia 3-0 ATS
Appalachian State 3-0 ATS
Georgia Southern 3-0 ATS
Syracuse 3-0-1 ATS


Remaining winless ATS teams in FBS college football:

Georgia Tech 0-4 ATS
Wake Forest 0-4 ATS
USC 0-4 ATS
Louisville 0-4 ATS
Florida Atlantic 0-4 ATS
Oregon 0-4 ATS
Nebraska 0-3 ATS
Texas-San Antonio 0-3-1 ATS
Connecticut 0-3-1 ATS
Arkansas 0-3-1 ATS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Sep 28 '18, 7:05 PM in 15m
MLB | Braves vs Phillies
Play on: Braves -135 at 5Dimes

Jack’s Free Pick Friday: Atlanta Braves -135
The Atlanta Braves still have a lot to play for even though they’ve already clinched the division. They are tied with the Rockies for the No. 2 seed in the National League, and whoever gets the No. 2 seed will get home-field advantage in the first round.
The good news for the Braves is that they’ll be up against a Philadelphia Phillies team that has clearly quit on the season. The Phillies are 0-8 in their last eight games overall. They were just swept by the Rockies last season and outscored 39-6 in the process. Don’t expect them to offer much resistance in this series, either.
While Jerad Eickhoff will be making his first season of the season for the Phillies, the Braves will send ace Mike Foltynewicz to the mound. He is having a brilliant season, going 12-10 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.107 WHIP in 30 starts, including 7-6 with a 2.52 ERA in 14 road starts. Folty is 5-3 with a 3.22 ERA in 11 career starts against Philadelphia, including a 2.08 ERA in five starts against the Phillies in 2018.
The Braves are 10-2 in their last 12 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Atlanta is 39-18 in its last 57 vs. NL East opponents. The Phillies are 0-11 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 1-9 in Eickhoff’s last 10 starts during Game 1 of a series. Bet the Braves Friday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Sep 28 '18, 7:10 PM in 20m
MLB | Blue Jays vs Rays
Play on: Blue Jays +145 at betonline

1* Free Pick on Toronto Blue Jays +145
This is a great price and spot to back Toronto in Friday's series opener against the Rays. The Blue Jays come in off an emotional 3-1 win last time out, as they delivered a win in their home finale for manager John Gibbons, who won't be returning after this season. I expect Toronto to continue to play hard in the final series of the season for Gibbons.
As for Tampa Bay, they just recently were eliminated from postseason play and when you are in the hunt this late, it's really hard to get motivated once you no longer have a shot. The Rays just lost 3 of 4 at home to New York and were lucky to come away with a win in their lone victory.
I look for Blue Jays starter Thomas Pannone to be the difference in this one. He's really flashed some potential in his 5 starts and enters this one with a 2.70 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Look for him to keep it going against a Tampa Bay offense that has scored 2 or fewer in 3 of his last 4. Take Toronto!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Capping Computer

Sep 28 '18, 7:10 PM in 20m
MLB | Blue Jays vs Rays
Play on: Rays -165 at GTBets

1* Computer Pick on Rays -165

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels

Sep 28 '18, 8:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Memphis vs Tulane
Play on: UNDER 67 -110

Free Play on Memphis vs Tulane under 67 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon

Sep 28 '18, 8:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Memphis vs Tulane
Play on: Tulane +15 -110 at sportsbook

FREE PLAY on Tulane +15 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info Plays

Sep 28 '18, 8:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Memphis vs Tulane
Play on: Tulane +14 -105 at Bovada

1* Free Play on Tulane +14 -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Wilson

Sep 28 '18, 8:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Memphis vs Tulane
Play on: Tulane +15½ -114 at GTBets

Free Play on Tulane +15½ -114

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ross Benjamin

Sep 28 '18, 8:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Memphis vs Tulane
Play on: Memphis -13½ -110 at BMaker

Ross’ football picks (NCAAFB/NFL) are an outstanding 32-18 (64%) L50! Ross’ September NFL picks are a tremendous 95-47 (67%) ATS since 2010!
Memphis @ Tulane 8:00 PM ET
Game# 105-106
Play On: Memphis -13.5
Memphis is coming off 2 straight wins by scores of 59-22 versus Georgia State 2 weeks ago and 52-35 over South Alabama last Saturday. Memphis has now gone 16-6 during its previous 22 games played. Tulane is coming off a 49-6 blowout loss at Ohio State in their previous game. The combination of the previously mentioned data qualifies for a never lost college football betting angle which is illustrated below.
Any road favorite of 11.0-points or more (Memphis) playing in games 2 through 9 and is coming off 2 straight wins that each came by 17 points or greater, and they scored 54 points or fewer in their previous contest, and they’ve won 9 of more of its last 22 games, versus an opponent (Tulane) who’s coming off a loss in which they allowed 38 points or more, resulted in those road favorites going 25-0 ATS since 2010. Bet on Memphis minus the points.