Sunday 9-30-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-1.5)

Tampa Bay and Ryan Fitzmagic, er, Fitzpatrick are the talk of the league, but they’ve still got some Week 3 work to do, hosting Pittsburgh in a Monday night affair. The Buccaneers (2-0 SU and ATS) shocked New Orleans in Week 1 as a 10-point road pup, then beat defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia 27-21 catching 3 points at home in Week 2.

After a tough Week 1 loss at Green Bay, Chicago bounced back with a pair of victories. The Bears (2-1 SU and ATS) rallied from a 14-0 first-quarter deficit to grab a 16-14 victory over Arizona as 5.5-point road faves in Week 3.

“We opened the Bears -1.5, took a couple bets on them and moved it to -2,” Murray said. “Chicago struggled offensively against Arizona, but the public believes in its defense, and I can see why. This number could change depending on the ‘Monday Night Football’ game between the Steelers and Bucs.”

Later Sunday, the line ticked up another notch to Chicago -2.5.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+4.5)

Kansas City quarterback Pat Mahomes is another big developing story this season, with 13 touchdown passes and no interceptions through three weeks. In Week 3 against San Francisco, Mahomes had three TDs as the Chiefs (3-0 SU and ATS) built a 35-7 lead and cruised to a 38-27 win laying 5.5 points at home.

Denver played its first two games in the friendly confines of the Mile High City and won both. Week 3 on the road wasn’t nearly as kind, with the Broncos (2-1 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) tumbling to Baltimore 27-14 getting 5.5 points.

“We opened the Chiefs -4.5 and took a bet on the Broncos, but left it,” Murray said, though later Sunday, the line did tick down to 4. “We will need the Broncos in this game. The public loves the Chiefs for all the same reasons I said they love the Rams. I can see why. Mahomes looks unbelievable right now. I’m confident books all over Nevada will have big liabilities on the Chiefs next Monday night.”

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-9.5)

Perennial Super Bowl contender New England is off to a shaky start this season. After getting dominated at Jacksonville in Week 2, the Patriots couldn’t build any momentum at Detroit, losing 23-10 as a 7-point fave.

With the Pats out of the gate slowly, Miami finds itself atop the AFC East. The Dolphins (3-0 SU and ATS) dropped Oakland 28-20 laying 3 points at home, but this Week 4 road trip will easily be their sternest test so far.

“We opened the Patriots -9.5, despite the Dolphins getting off to an impressive 3-0 start,” Murray said. “I’ve been impressed with the Dolphins and consider New England to be a little on the overrated side right now, but we know where the money will come in on this game. The Patriots will be included in every moneyline parlay and teaser next week.”

The Superbook moved down a tick to 9 just before the Patriots kicked off at Detroit, and then took the game off the board, which is standard operating procedure when a team is playing in the Sunday nighter. The matchup will be reposted on Monday morning.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Injury Report

-- Bengals WR A.J. Green (groin) left Sunday's game at Carolina due to a groin injury, but he feels he'll be ready for Week 4.

-- 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo (knee) is believed to have suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament on a non-contact situation in Kansas City late in the game.

-- Giants TE Evan Engram (knee) was knocked out of the Week 3 victory in Houston due to a knee injury and he was unable to return.

-- Patriots RB Rex Burkhead (neck) suffered a neck injury in the third quarter of the game in Detroit and he was unable to return.

-- Titans QB Blaine Gabbert (concussion) started against his former team, but he was knocked out, forcing QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) into action.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

'Overs' for NFL teams off a TNF home game – 2-0 O/U in 2018, 22-11 O/U since start of 2016

A common angle many bettors love to mention each week in the NFL is to back those teams off a Thursday Night football game because they've just had what amounts to a “mini-bye”. Rest is key in the NFL and for those teams who had to deal with an extremely short week, reaping the rewards the following week has to be the goal. But what appears to be the better angle here is to take those TNF teams who were at home and play the total 'over' the number the next week.

We've already seen this angle go 2-0 O/U this season with Philly (home on TNF in Week 1) cash an 'over' ticket in Week 2, and this past week it worked again with the Cincinnati Bengals sailing 'over' the number in their game against Carolina. Whether it's because these TNF home teams get the added benefit of not having to travel on that short week – to or from that TNF game – or it's a simple case of extra rest, prep time, and film scouting – including scouting their next opponent live on Sunday/Monday prior to facing them - we will probably never know. But this trend can't be ignored at this point because it's not like it hasn't been consistent either. Last year saw this scenario go 9-5 O/U and 2016 finished with an 11-5 O/U mark.

Side note for those of that are wondering, those numbers do not include the Thanksgiving afternoon games in Detroit and Dallas every year, but those specific teams went 2-0 O/U in 2017 and 0-2 O/U in 2016 following those Thanksgiving contests.

This means that Browns fans – if they've stopped drinking in celebration from Cleveland's TNF win in Week 3 – better be prepared for some more great play from Baker Mayfield in Oakland for Week 4. It's the Cleveland/Oakland game that fits this scenario in Week 4 and wouldn't you know it we've already seen the opener of 44.5 be pushed up to 45 as of this writing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2017 One-Year Wonder QB's Case Keenum, Deshaun Watson, and Jimmy Garoppolo winless ATS in 2018

There are only three NFL teams that remain winless against the spread through three games in 2018 (Pittsburgh could be the 4th after MNF tonight) and they would be the Denver Broncos (0-2-1 ATS), Houston Texans (0-3 ATS) and San Francisco 49ers (0-3 ATS). Those numbers are a complete about face for those respective QB's as Denver's Case Keenum, Houston's Deshaun Watson, and San Francisco's Jimmy Garoppolo were ATS darlings when they were on the field just a season ago.

Garoppolo's record likely isn't going to get any better as he's feared to be lost for the season with a knee injury which is a shame, but should we be fading these guys/teams in the immediate future?

Regarding Keenum, he parlayed a great season as the replacement in Minnesota last year into a big contract and starting role in Denver, but through three games he has looked like the journeyman backup he was his entire career prior to 2017. There may still be time to give him another week or two given he is with a new team, but the leash can't be that long anymore for Keenum in Denver. The Broncos and Keenum are home dogs against the high-powered Chiefs on MNF in Week 4 which is an interesting spot to say the least in terms of how much trust you want to have in Keenum and the Broncos.

Over in Houston, HC Bill O'Brien appears to be taking ALL the heat for the Texans 0-3 SU and ATS start simply because NFL fans saw how Deshaun Watson torched opposing defenses in his handful of games a year ago before getting hurt. But I believe Watson has to share nearly equal blame in this rough start (if he wasn't off an ACL it would be 50/50), because it's not like O'Brien wasn't the head guy last year during that great run by Houston and those same NFL fans were heaping praise on him for the move. Maybe the Texans (and Watson) are being overly cautious with his return, but the Texans offense just eclipsed 20 points for the first time in 2018 in Week 3 and it was only because they got a garbage time TD to do so.

It may be time for bettors to start really considering that maybe Watson wasn't all he was cracked up to be during that great run in 2017 and understand that the same issue that has plagued Houston since their existence – a lack of a quality QB – is still the issue in 2018. Three games off an ACL I'm willing to give Watson the benefit of the doubt, but a poor showing by this Texans offense as road dogs in Indy this week may be the end of the line for O'Brien in Houston, or maybe even Watson as the starter of this team for a week or two.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Sunday, September 30

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MIAMI (3 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 2) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 72-100 ATS (-38.0 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 56-80 ATS (-32.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (0 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in dome games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (2 - 1) at ATLANTA (1 - 2) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (1 - 2) at GREEN BAY (1 - 1 - 1) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 108-79 ATS (+21.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 188-135 ATS (+39.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (1 - 2) at DALLAS (1 - 2) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 137-173 ATS (-53.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (1 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 1) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 0) at CHICAGO (2 - 1) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (2 - 1) at TENNESSEE (2 - 1) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 50-28 ATS (+19.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (1 - 2) at ARIZONA (0 - 3) - 9/30/2018, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 44-22 ATS (+19.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 2-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (1 - 1 - 1) at OAKLAND (0 - 3) - 9/30/2018, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 50-82 ATS (-40.2 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-106 ATS (-40.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-106 ATS (-40.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 60-84 ATS (-32.4 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-106 ATS (-40.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 2) at LA CHARGERS (1 - 2) - 9/30/2018, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (2 - 1) at NY GIANTS (1 - 2) - 9/30/2018, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (2 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 1 - 1) - 9/30/2018, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 4

Trend Report


Sunday, September 30

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia


Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 7-12-3 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Buffalo is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Green Bay
Buffalo is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games
Green Bay is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
Green Bay is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo


Detroit Lions
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Dallas
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Detroit
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit


Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games
Tampa Bay is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Tampa Bay is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Chicago is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay


New York Jets
NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
NY Jets is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games on the road
NY Jets is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Jacksonville
NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing NY Jets
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing NY Jets


Miami Dolphins
Miami is 4-7-2 ATS in its last 13 games
Miami is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
Miami is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing New England
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
New England Patriots
New England is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
New England is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami
New England is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing Miami
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami


Houston Texans
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Houston is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Indianapolis's last 10 games
Indianapolis is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Houston
Indianapolis is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston


Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati


Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Seattle is 4-8-2 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games on the road
Seattle is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Seattle is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Seattle is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Seattle is 4-0-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Seattle's last 14 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games at home
Arizona is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 14 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle


Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games
Cleveland is 1-18-1 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Cleveland's last 16 games on the road
Cleveland is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Oakland
Cleveland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Oakland
Cleveland is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 4-11-2 ATS in its last 17 games
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Oakland's last 10 games
Oakland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games at home
Oakland is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland
Oakland is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Oakland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland


San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
San Francisco is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games
San Francisco is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing LA Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
LA Chargers is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Chargers's last 14 games
LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
LA Chargers is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
LA Chargers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 10 games when playing San Francisco


New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games
New Orleans is 14-5-1 ATS in its last 20 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
New Orleans is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
New York Giants
NY Giants is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games
NY Giants is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
NY Giants is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
NY Giants is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
NY Giants is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
NY Giants is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games when playing at home against New Orleans


Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Baltimore's last 15 games
Baltimore is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
Pittsburgh is 18-6-1 SU in its last 25 games
Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games at home
Pittsburgh is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Baltimore

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

Sunday, September 30

Miami @ New England

Game 251-252
September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
125.951
New England
135.103
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 9
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 6 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-6 1/2); Under

Houston @ Indianapolis

Game 253-254
September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
126.396
Indianapolis
125.387
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 1 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+1 1/2); Over

Cincinnati @ Atlanta

Game 255-256
September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
132.849
Atlanta
135.430
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 2 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 5 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+5 1/2); Over

Buffalo @ Green Bay

Game 257-258
September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
131.726
Green Bay
125.283
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 6 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 10 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+10 1/2); Over

Detroit @ Dallas

Game 259-260
September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
129.689
Dallas
128.971
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 1
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+3); Over

NY Jets @ Jacksonville

Game 261-262
September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
124.014
Jacksonville
139.284
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 15
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 7
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(-7); Under

Tampa Bay @ Chicago

Game 263-264
September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
130.654
Chicago
135.667
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 5
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(-3); Under

Philadelphia @ Tennessee

Game 265-266
September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
139.716
Tennessee
131.220
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 8 1/2
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 3 1/2
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-3 1/2); Under

Seattle @ Arizona

Game 267-268
September 30, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
131.870
Arizona
123.049
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 9
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 3
39
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-3); Under

Cleveland @ Oakland

Game 269-270
September 30, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
127.935
Oakland
123.499
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 4 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 3
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+3); Over

San Francisco @ LA Chargers

Game 271-272
September 30, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
132.338
LA Chargers
131.436
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 10 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+10 1/2); Over

New Orleans @ NY Giants

Game 273-274
September 30, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
131.140
NY Giants
130.852
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
Even
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+3 1/2); Under

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

Game 275-276
September 30, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
135.505
Pittsburgh
135.440
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
Even
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
51
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(+3); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL


Week 4


Sunday
Dolphins (3-0) @ Patriots (1-2)— Miami’s fast start makes this a more important game than it usually is, seeing how Patriots lost last two games, outscored 57-30 (34-6 in 1st half). NE lacks outside threat at WR, so Gronkowski is always doubled; Pats are 10-35 on 3rd down this year. NE is 22-12-3 in last 37 games as home favorites, 24-11 vs spread coming off a loss. Miami scored seven TD’s on 21 drives in last two games; they had three TD plays of 34+ yards LW in comeback win over Raiders. Dolphins are +4 in turnovers but only 10-41 on 3rd down; since ’14, they’re 10-16 as road underdogs. Home side won 10 of last 11 series games; Dolphins lost last nine visits here, with five of last six losses here by 10+ points.

Texans (0-3) @ Colts (1-2)— Third road game in four weeks for 0-3 Houston that has losses by 7-3-5 points; they were outscored 55-19 in first half of games. Texans won field position in all three games, but have no takeaways in last two, and scored only 43 points in 11 visits to red zone this year- they’re 10-16 vs spread in last 26 road games. Colts were outgained 379-209 in 20-16 loss at Philly LW; they’ve had only seven plays of 20+ yards this month, have yet to average more than 5.5 yds/pass attempt in any game. Indy is 8-3 in last 11 series games; they beat Houston 20-14/22-13 LY, but Texans did win two of last three visits here. Last 2+ years, Colts are 14-7 vs spread when coming off a loss.

Bengals (2-1) @ Falcons (1-2)— Atlanta’s defense fell apart at end of game LW; on Saints’ last four drives, they gave up 247 yards on 38 plays, four TD’s in an OT loss. Cincy scored 89 points in its 2-1 start, scoring 6.5 pts/red zone drive- they lost at Carolina last week because Dalton threw four picks. Atlanta gained 442/407 yards last two games; under Quinn, they’re 9-14 as home favorites (6-4 in last 10). Bengals are 3-8-1 vs spread in last dozen games as road dogs; since 2013, Cincy is 18-12-1 coming off a loss. Falcons won three of last four series games; Cincy lost their last three visits here- their last win in Atlanta was in ’87. Under is 7-6 in dome games so far this year; from 2013-17, over was 59% in games played in domes.

Bills (1-2) @ Packers (1-1-1)— Over last decade, Buffalo is 22-38-3 vs spread coming off a win; LW they pulled NFL’s biggest upset in 23 years. Third road game in four weeks for Bills; under McDermott, they’re 4-4 as road underdogs. Buffalo’s TY in three games: 153-293-292; they won LW because they won field position by 22 yards, a huge margin. Green Bay is 26th in NFL in red zone scoring; hey averaged 5.5/4.9 yds/pass attempt last two games- Rodgers’ gimpy knee prevents him from scrambling as much as normal. Since ’14, Packers are 17-9-2 as home favorites, but only 1-4 in last five games when laying double digits. Home side won last seven series games; Bills lost last three visits here, by 10-10-27 points.

Lions (1-2) @ Cowboys (1-2)— Short week for Lions after they upset Patriots Monday (TY was 414-209 Det, so maybe not a big upset). Detroit QB Stafford is from Dallas area, this is a homecoming here; Cowboys are 7-3 in last ten series games, winning last two, 24-20, 42-21. Lions lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 16-4-21 points. Since ’13, Detroit is 16-22-3 vs spread coming off a win- they’re 12-19 in last 31 games as road underdogs. Dallas offense is struggling; they’re last in NFL with only four plays of 20+ yards. Cowboys are 7-5 in last 12 games as home favorites; they’re 11-4-2 in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points. All three Dallas games this season stayed under the total.

Jets (1-2) @ Jaguars (2-1)— Rookie QBs generally struggle on road; this is third game in four weeks for Jets squad that is near bottom of NFL in red zone scoring, and scoring on drives starting 75+ yards from EZ. Under Bowles, Gang Green is 5-8-3 as road underdogs, 12-13-2 coming off a loss. Jaguars didn’t score TD in home loss to Titans LW; Jax gained only 166 yards. Under Marrone, Jags are 4-5 as home favorites, 10-7 coming off a loss. Jets won last four series games, including 23-20 (OT) home win LY; this is their first visit here since 2012. NFL-wide, home favorites in non-divisional games are 12-8-1 vs spread so far this season. Jets had three extra days to prep here, after playing on Thursday LW.

Buccaneers (2-1) @ Bears (2-1)— Short week for Bucs after Monday nite loss; they won/covered their pre-bye game last three years. Fitzpatrick is first QB EVER to throw for 400+ yards three games in row; Tampa Bay is 8-5-1 as road dogs under Koetter, but they’re also 6-11-1 coming off a loss. Chicago was down 14-0 early in desert LW, rallied to beat woeful Cardinals; over last 10+ years, Bears are awful 16-26-3 as home favorites, but 1-0 this year- they held last two opponents to 276-221 total yards. Still don’t trust young QB Trubisky; Bears have only six plays of 20+ yards, but they’re +3 in turnovers- Chicago’s defense is sturdy. Bucs won last two series games, 36-10/29-7; teams split last four meetings here, with Tampa’s last visit here in ’14.

Eagles (2-1) @ Titans (2-1)— Tennessee won divisional games last two weeks despite gaining only 283/233 yards; they’ve got QB injury issues. Titans threw for only 83 yards in ugly 9-6 win LW when neither team scored a TD- they’ve got only five plays of 20+ yards this year. Tennessee is 3-2 in last five games as home underdogs. Philly allowed only 61.7 rushing yards/game; they gave up 393 PY in only loss, at Tampa- not likely Titans can throw for 300+. Eagles outgained Indy 379-209 in Wentz’ first game back from injury; under Pederson, Philly is 2-5 as a road favorite. Titans won four of last five series games, winning last two played here, 27-24/37-19. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in non-divisional games.

Seahawks (1-2) @ Cardinals (0-3)— Home side is 0-6-1 in last seven series games; Seattle is 4-0-1 in last five visits here, with three of four wins by 12+ points. Rookie QB Rosen gets first NFL start here; he saw his first game action LW, in last two series vs Chicago, and threw two INT’s. In its first three games, Arizona gained 213-137-221 yards; they have zero red zone snaps last two games, so playing a rookie can’t be too much worse. Since ’12, Arizona is 11-6-1 as home underdogs. Seattle got its first win LW; Seahawks were +3 in turnovers- under Carroll, they’re 14-16-1 as road favorites- Wilson has been sacked 14 times already this year. So far this month, home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games.

Browns (1-2) @ Raiders (0-3)— Oakland is 0-3 despite leading all three games at half; they’re oldest team in NFL and so far they look it, outscored 64-17 in 2nd half. This is first game they’re favored to win; over last decade, Raiders are 12-19 laying points at home. Raiders have 16 plays of 20+ yards, which is a lot, but they’ve allowed 17. Mayfield got win off bench in his NFL debut LW; this is his first NFL start. Browns’ defense held Saints to 275 yards in Superdome two weeks ago; they’re a good defense. Cleveland is 9-16 in last 25 games as road underdogs. NFC North teams are 6-2 vs spread outside division this month; AFC West teams are 4-3-1. Cleveland is 6-4 in this series, splitting six games here; teams haven’t met since ’15.

49ers (1-2) @ Chargers (1-2)— Beathard was 1-4 as 49ers’ starter LY, gets first ’18 start here vs team his grandfather Bobby was GM of from 1990-2000. Would expect Niners to try and run ball more to protect young QB; they ran ball for 190-178 yards in last two games. SF lost both road games this month, by 8-11 points. Over last decade, 49ers are 4-7 as double digit dogs. Chargers gave up 521 yards in 35-23 loss to Rams LW; since ’09, Bolts are 2-7 vs spread when laying double digits. LA is 9-14 vs spread in last 23 games as home favorites; they’ve allowed 17 plays of 20+ yards, T3rd most in NFL. Chargers won last four series games, with two of those wins in OT. All three Charger games this season have gone over total.

Saints (2-1) @ Giants (1-2)— Home side won 10 of last 11 series games, with average total in last five, 71.4; Saints lost six of last seven series games played here, losing last two 52-27/16-13- their last win here vs Giants was in ’06. Payton was once fired as OC of the Giants; don’t forget that Eli is from New Orleans. Saints scored 104 points in first three games, but all three were inside; this is 4:25 kickoff outdoors, which means end of game will be played at night. NO covered four of last five tries as road favorites. Giants allowed 20+ points in all three games; they’re 7-5 in last dozen games as home underdogs. Manning has been sacked 12 times already; Beckham has caught 24 balls for 271 yards, but no TD’s yet. Saints’ secondary is vulnerable.

Ravens (2-1) @ Steelers (1-1-1)— Home side is 8-3 in last 11 series games; Ravens lost four of last five visits here, losing last two 31-27/39-38. Short week for Steelers after 30-27 win in Tampa Monday; they had four takeaways in first half, got blanked in second but held on for win. Totals in Pitt games this season: 42-79-57, as Steelers haven’t filled big hole left by injury to LB Shazier LY. Home side won/covered all three Raven games this season; they’re 8-7-1 in last 16 games as a road underdog, 7-2-1 vs spread in last AFC North road games. Baltimore has 12 TD’s in 12 trips to red zone this year (missed one PAT). Steelers are 3-5 in last eight games as home favorites; they’re 3-5-1 vs spread in last nine NFC North home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 4
Bruce Marshall


Sunday, Sep. 30

MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins no covers last six at Foxborough, and no SU wins since the “Wildcat” game of 2008. Dolphins 3-7 vs. line away since LY (but 1-0 in 2018). Belichick 12-6 last 18 vs. points reg season at Gillette Stadium.
Tech Edge: Patriots, based on series trends.

HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans “under” 9-3 last 12 since late 2017. Colts “under” 11-2 last 13 since mid 2017.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

CINCINNATI at ATLANTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Marvin Lewis 8-4-1 last 12 as dog since late 2016. Falcons on 8-2 “under” run since late 2017.
Tech Edge: Bengals and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

BUFFALO at GREEN BAY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills back in win column after losses first two, and Pack also failed to cover first two as Lambeau chalk. GB on 6-game spread skid since late 2017. Pack “over” 20-5 last 25 since late 2016.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

DETROIT at DALLAS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dallas just 5-8 last 13 as Arlington chalk. Cowboys also “under” 11-1 last 12 since mid 2017.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.

N.Y. JETS at JACKSONVILLE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bowles 3-7-1 last 11 vs. line on road. Though Jets 8-4-2 as dog since late 2016. Jets also “under” 5-2 last 7 since late 2017.
Tech Edge: Slight to Jags and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

TAMPA BAY at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs 12-4-1 his last 17 as an underdog. Bucs also “over” 8-2 last ten away. Bears 2-6 last 8 as home chalk (though 1-0 TY for Nagy).
Tech Edge: Bucs and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

PHILADELPHIA at TENNESSEE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Birds were 6-3 vs. line away from Linc LY. Also “over” 9-3 last 12 away. Titans on 10-1-2 spread run at home since mid 2016.
Tech Edge: Slight to “Over” and Titans, based on “totals” and team trends.

SEATTLE at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Last three meetings “under” in Glendale. Pete Carroll 4-0-1 vs. line last five at State Farm Stadium. Carroll, however, on 8-14-1 spread skid since late 2016. Cards “under” 6 of last 7 since late 2017.
Tech Edge: "Under" and slight to Seahawks, based on “totals” and series trends.

CLEVELAND at OAKLAND (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Browns have covered last four since late 2017. Raiders “unders” 9-0-1 last 10 since late 2017.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Browns, based on “totals” and team trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Bolts 4-9-1 vs. line in first four games of season since 2015. Chargers “under” 10-4 last 14 since early 2017 (though “over” 3-0 TY). 49ers 7-3 vs. line last ten away.
Tech Edge: Slight to "under” and 49ers, based on “totals” and team trends.

NEW ORLEANS at NY GIANTS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
G-Men 3-6 vs. line at home since LY. Also “under” 8-2 last 10 since mid 2017. Saints 4-1 last five as road chalk.
Tech Edge: Saints and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Ravens 6-2-1 vs. line last nine meetings. Harbaugh also 3-0-1 vs. spread last 4 at Heinz Field. Steel just 3-9 vs. spread last 12 as host, also “over” 8-3 last 11 at Heinz.
Tech Edge: Ravens and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teams to Watch - Week 4

Futures Forecast Predictions, top picks, teams to avoid for Week 4

As we look ahead to Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season, we are putting together our weekly set of teams to play and avoid. It has been a bit of a strange start to the season, with some of the teams we expected to be on top struggling in the early going. There are a couple of dark horse teams emerging, too, but with a large portion of the season still to be played, we are trying not to get too carried away with those guys.

We will, as always, be taking a look at 4 teams this week, picking 2 to play and 2 to avoid, so let’s get right to the selections and their odds, props and futures.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
I can’t remember the last time I looked at the standings and did not see the New England Patriots on top of the AFC East. They have started the season at 1-2 and do not look anything like the Patriots team that we have come to expect over the past decade or so, especially on the offensive side of the football. The Patriots will be hosting their division rivals, the Miami Dolphins, this week and will have their hands full with a team brimming with confidence after starting the season at 3-0. While the Patriots have dominated the Dolphins in recent years, I have my doubts about this weekend, particularly ATS, which is why I plan to avoid the New England Patriots.

Minnesota Vikings at LA Rams
There have been few teams that have lived up to the preseason hype through the opening 4 weeks, although the Rams are certainly not in that group. The Rams spent a small fortune in the offseason building a team designed to make a run at the Super Bowl. That big investment is paying off in spades, as they are one of only 3 unbeaten teams heading into Week 4. This will be a big test for the Rams, as they will be hosting a Minnesota Vikings team sure to be smarting after a loss to the Buffalo Bills last week. The Vikings are another big favorite this season, but they are off to a slow start, which is why I will be looking at the SU as I I play the LA Rams.

San Francisco 49ers at LA Chargers
A season that started with so much hope and promise is quickly turning into a nightmare for the San Francisco 49ers. The believed that Jimmy Garoppolo was going to be the man to lead them back to elite status, but the QB tore his ACL last week and is now done for the year. Throw in an injury to Richard Sherman and you are looking that a team that has injuries starting to pile up. Things do not get any easier for the 49ers this weekend, as they will be on the road to face Phillip Rivers and the Chargers. Until I see how this tam reacts to the loss of their QB, I am going to avoid the San Francisco 49ers.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
At the start of this piece, I spoke about the importance of not getting too carried away by a dark horse team, but it’s impossible not to be impressed by what the Kansas City Chiefs are doing right now. Specifically, the play of young QB Patrick Mahomes has been a joy to behold, as he seems to be doing nothing but throwing TD passes through the opening 3 weeks of the season. The Chiefs have a tough road trip on Monday night, as they head into Denver to face the Broncos. It’s never an easy place to go and get a win, but I am ready to play the Kansas City Chiefs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Underdogs: Week 4 pointspread picks and predictions
Jason Logan

Injuries are a tough thing to stir into the NFL pointspread pot. Most injuries – even when involving star players – have minimal impact on the odds, if any.

Sure, when it’s a starting quarterback like Jimmy Garoppolo going down for the Niners, you see big adjustments: like San Francisco moving from a projected 4.5-point road underdog in L.A. facing the Chargers to as big as +10.5 with C.J. Beathard under center this Sunday. However, beyond QBs and a sparse handful of skill guys, most player injuries don’t make a blip on the betting radar.

Now, cluster injuries – a rash of missing pieces at one position or specific unit - those are different beasts. When the Atlanta Falcons lost safety Keanu Neal to a knee injury and linebacker Deion Jones to a bum foot in Week 1, football fans in the know recognized that Atlanta was in trouble. Then, when the Falcons’ other starting safety Ricardo Allen suffered a torn Achilles last week, alarm bells started ringing.

Atlanta is missing its top three non-cornerback coverage players: the type of players that are invaluable when it comes to nullifying an opponent’s mismatches, like pass-catching running backs and route-running tight ends. And it showed versus New Orleans in Week 3.

The Saints scored 43 points (Atlanta scored 37 points at home and still didn’t win!), completed 39 of 49 passes to nine different players, converted seven of their 14 third-down snaps and went 1-for-1 on fourth down, en route to a 6-point overtime win as 1.5-point underdogs (opened +3). New Orleans’ running backs totaled 125 yards receiving while its tight ends posted a collective 88 yards. RING! RING!

The Falcons face another formidable offense in the Cincinnati Bengals, giving 5.5 points to the visiting non-conference foe in Week 4. The Bengals will give Atlanta’s defense plenty of headaches in those “mismatch” spots, with versatile running back Giovani Bernard, tight end Tyler Eifert, and a dynamic duo of receivers in A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd.

Much like last week, Atlanta will need a ton of points to keep pace in this game (a big reason why the total has ticked up from 48 to 52 points). The Bengals defense is much tougher than the high-level stats would indicate (playing two of first three on the road) and is focused on improving its dreadful third-down defense (opponents converting at 52%), something that has haunted this team the past two seasons.

That said, Atlanta is sending foes to the sideline on third downs just 51 percent of the time – right behind Cincy at the bottom of the league. Those cluster injuries on defense are quickly going to turn into a cluster f--k for the Falcons.

Pick: Cincinnati +5.5


Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers (-10, 45)

Two important happenings have occurred with the Bills since halftime of that loss to the L.A. Chargers in Week 2. You know, the game where veteran corner Vontae Davis up and retired with Buffalo down a 28-6 hole at the break.

1. Head coach Sean McDermott took over defensive play calling from coordinator Leslie Frazier for the remainder of that game. And while he has since turned the keys back over to Frazier, the power move has sparked this unit and lit a fire under Frazier’s ass.

2. Rookie Josh Allen replaced Nate Peterman as the Bills' starting quarterback. Not that tough to see the upgrade there…

Since those moves, Buffalo has outscored opponents 41-9 over the past six quarters of football, including that crazy 27-6 win over the Minnesota Vikings as 16-point pups last Sunday. I don’t expect another stunner from the Bills in Lambeau in Week 4, but Buffalo isn’t as bad as this spread indicates. And the Packers are definitely not as good as this lofty pile of chalk would lead us to believe.

By all accounts, Green Bay is a couple plays away from being 0-3 on the season. The Cheeseheads needed an Aaron Rodgers’ miracle to leave Chicago with a win in Week 1, were lucky to get a tie versus the Vikings in Week 2, and were exposed in a 31-17 loss to Washington last weekend.

Circle the wagons and gimmie the points.

Pick: Buffalo +10


New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (+3.5, 50.5)

Speaking of teams that should be 0-3, the Saints are getting more respect from bookies than they deserve heading to East Rutherford Sunday.

New Orleans was trounced by Tampa Bay in Week 1, got let off the hook by poor kicking from Cleveland in Week 2, and then needed Drew Brees to do his best Cam Newton impersonation to steal an overtime victory at Atlanta last Sunday. The Saints are a mess defensively – ranked near the bottom in yards and points allowed – and match up with a dangerous Giants offense that’s finding its groove.

And let’s not forget about the New York defense. The G-Men are allowing an average of just under 21 points per play, and gave up some garbage time tallies versus Houston last week, which skews those stats. Big Blue is doing a fine job on third down defense and holding their own inside the red zone.

Considering the Saints’ last two outings have come down to the wire, I love the half-point hook on the home dog here with the Giants.

Pick: N.Y. Giants +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JETS WEREN’T READY FOR MAYFIELD

Baker Mayfield looked great in relief of Tyrod Taylor in Week 3. There’s no denying that. But Jets safety Jamal Adams had something interesting to say about it earlier this week: “We had to be open to knowing that Baker could come in, but we were prepared for Tyrod. When Baker came in, obviously we didn't have a game plan for him.”

It makes sense that the Jets didn’t plan for Mayfield. Taylor was the starter and Mayfield might not have touched the field had it not been for Taylor’s injury. Mayfield starts this week, however, and you can bet that Jon Gruden will have the Raiders ready for him. Reports out of Oakland are that Gruden is spending almost every waking moment studying game tapes. We mentioned earlier this week that we’re leaning on the Under for Mayfield’s passing-yards total of 260, mostly because coach Hue Jackson will continue to be run-first and not set Mayfield up for failure. Mayfield might have a great career, but bettors should expect a pedestrian debut. In addition to the passing-total Under, we’re also leaning towards the Raiders at -2.5.


ELI HITTING HIS STRIDE?

A funny thing happened last weekend: Eli Manning resembled a decent NFL quarterback! After two lackluster performances in Weeks 1 and 2, Manning led the Giants to their first win of the season in Houston with a line of 25 for 29, 297 yards, and two touchdowns. Yes, he was still sacked four times, bringing his season total to 12, but luckily for Manning, he’s playing the Saints this weekend.

After playing like a decent defensive unit last season, New Orleans has regressed this season and is currently 30th in the NFL, giving up 421 yards per game. The only team they’ve been able to slow was Tyrod Taylor’s Cleveland Browns, as the Buccaneers scored 48 against them and the Falcons put up 37. The Giants aren’t quite at the offensive level of Tampa Bay and Atlanta, but you could make the argument that their skill-position players are just as good, if not better. The other thing we can bank on in this game is that the Saints will score — they’re averaging just shy of 35 points per game. If Eli isn’t terrible in this one, it’s going to be a shootout, so we’re leaning towards the Over 50.5.


SLOW START IN ARIZONA?

In Week 1, Russell Wilson threw the ball 33 times and the Seahawks lost. In Week 2, 36 times and another loss. Then in Week 3, Wilson threw just 26 times and running back Chris Carson had 32 carries — and Seattle got its first win. We should have seen this coming, as coach Pete Carroll had this to say after the Week 2 loss: “I just got a little impatient and we threw the ball a little more than we needed to. I’m just owning up to it, I need to be a little less impatient.” Obviously, Carroll knows he needs to run to be successful and he’ll likely try to get the run game going early against Arizona on Sunday.

On the other sideline, rookie Josh Rosen makes his first start of the season. He did see the field for two drives last week and threw one interception and another pick-six that got called back due to a defensive penalty. Coach Steve Wilks is going to be very cautious with his play calling, especially early on, and that could mean a lot of David Johnson. With both teams leaning heavily on the run early, we’re going to take the Under 7.5 points for the first quarter.


CARSON TO CRUSH CARDINALS

There’s one sentence in the note above that we need to talk more about: Seahawks running back Chris Carson carried the ball 32 times last week. Heading into Week 2, Carson had just 13 carries on the season. The Seahawks made a commitment to the run and it worked; they controlled the game from start to finish and won.

As Carroll game plans for this week, he’s going to notice that the Cardinals aren’t great against the run. In fact, they’re terrible. They’re giving up 131.3 yards per game and have allowed a league-high five rushing touchdowns already. All signs point towards the Seahawks trying to control the game with the rush once again this week, so we’re going to go big by backing Carson to go Over 58.5 on his rushing total and to score a touchdown at any time.


FALCONS ARE HURTING

Atlanta’s defense is an absolute mess of injuries, with safety Ricardo Allen joining safety Keanu Neal and linebacker Deion Jones with multiple-game injuries. Drew Brees took full advantage of this last week, posting 396 yards and three touchdowns. Cam Newton did the same in Week 2 with 335 yards and three touchdowns. This week, it’s Andy Dalton’s turn.

The Bengals’ quarterback looked bad with four interceptions last week against Carolina, but he still managed 352 yards through the air on 46 attempts. That happened to be his first full game without running back Joe Mixon, who is expected to miss this week as well. This game is primed to be a shootout with the game total set at 53.5, which means there should be plenty of passing once again from Dalton. Bettors should look to the Over 265.5 for his passing-yards total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS Trends
Detroit

Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
Lions are 6-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 4.
Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Lions are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Lions are 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Lions are 11-27-2 ATS in their last 40 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Lions are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Lions are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Dallas

Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cowboys are 3-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Cowboys are 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 games on fieldturf.
Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 4.

OU Trends
Detroit

Under is 4-0 in Lions last 4 games in Week 4.
Over is 5-1 in Lions last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Lions last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 7-2 in Lions last 9 vs. NFC.
Over is 16-5 in Lions last 21 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 10-4 in Lions last 14 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 5-2 in Lions last 7 road games.
Over is 5-2 in Lions last 7 games following a straight up win.
Over is 10-4 in Lions last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Over is 5-2 in Lions last 7 games in September.
Under is 10-4 in Lions last 14 games following a ATS win.
Over is 35-15-3 in Lions last 53 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 11-5-1 in Lions last 17 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Dallas

Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games in September.
Under is 5-0 in Cowboys last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games on fieldturf.
Under is 6-0 in Cowboys last 6 vs. NFC.
Under is 11-1 in Cowboys last 12 games overall.
Over is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 home games.
Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 games in Week 4.

Head to Head

Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.
Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS Trends
Buffalo

Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
Bills are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Bills are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Green Bay

Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 4.
Packers are 40-19 ATS in their last 59 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Packers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss.
Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

OU Trends
Buffalo

Over is 4-0 in Bills last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Under is 5-0 in Bills last 5 games in Week 4.
Under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 games on grass.
Over is 8-2 in Bills last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Bills last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 5-2 in Bills last 7 games following a straight up win.

Green Bay

Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 9-1 in Packers last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 8-1 in Packers last 9 games in Week 4.
Over is 6-1 in Packers last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 6-1 in Packers last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 21-5 in Packers last 26 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 20-7 in Packers last 27 games in September.
Over is 19-7 in Packers last 26 games on grass.
Over is 9-4 in Packers last 13 home games.
Over is 35-17-1 in Packers last 53 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Head to Head

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS Trends
Houston

Texans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 4.
Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Texans are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Texans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Texans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Texans are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
Texans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC South.
Texans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.

Indianapolis

Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Colts are 30-11 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Colts are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 4.
Colts are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up loss.
Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.
Colts are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC South.

OU Trends
Houston

Under is 4-0 in Texans last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Texans last 4 vs. AFC.
Under is 4-0 in Texans last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Texans last 7 road games.
Under is 5-1 in Texans last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Texans last 6 games on fieldturf.
Over is 5-1 in Texans last 6 games in Week 4.
Under is 4-1 in Texans last 5 games overall.
Under is 8-2-1 in Texans last 11 games in September.
Under is 4-1 in Texans last 5 vs. AFC South.
Under is 13-5 in Texans last 18 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-2 in Texans last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 5-2 in Texans last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 7-3 in Texans last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 29-14 in Texans last 43 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Indianapolis

Under is 8-0 in Colts last 8 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 5-0 in Colts last 5 vs. AFC South.
Under is 10-1 in Colts last 11 games overall.
Under is 8-1 in Colts last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 8-1 in Colts last 9 vs. AFC.
Under is 6-1 in Colts last 7 games on fieldturf.
Under is 5-1 in Colts last 6 home games.
Under is 5-1 in Colts last 6 games following a ATS win.
Over is 8-2 in Colts last 10 games in Week 4.
Under is 10-3 in Colts last 13 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 18-6 in Colts last 24 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 25-10 in Colts last 35 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 20-8 in Colts last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Head to Head

Under is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings in Indianapolis.
Road team is 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Texans are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Indianapolis.
Texans are 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.