Friday 10-5-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Friday, October 5


NY Yankees @ Boston

Game 905-906
October 5, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Happ) 14.717
Boston
(Sale) 18.256
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 3 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-180
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-180); Over

Cleveland @ Houston

Game 907-908
October 5, 2018 @ 2:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
(Kluber) 16.802
Houston
(Verlnder) 15.142
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-150
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+130); Under

Colorado @ Milwaukee

Game 909-910
October 5, 2018 @ 4:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
(Andrson) 17.504
Milwaukee
(Chacin) 19.169
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
-155
8
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-155); Under

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers

Game 911-912
October 5, 2018 @ 9:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Sanchez) 14.171
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 19.476
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 5 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-220
7
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-220); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Friday, October 5

American League
New York (101-62) @ Boston (108-54)
Happ is 2-0, 2.17 in his last five starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight. He is 1-1, 3.97 in four starts vs Boston this year; two with the Blue Jays, two with NY. Team in his starts: 9-2, 4-0 road
5-inning record: 7-2-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-11

Sale allowed one run in 47 IP from June 17-Sept 16, with two DL stints in there; he allowed five runs in eight IP in his last two appearances. Sale is 2-0, 0.69 vs New York this year. Team in his starts: 18-9, 8-4 home
5-inning record: 16-5-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-27

New York is 10-4 in its last 14 games, 5-2 in last seven road games. Red Sox are 3-5 in their last eight games; they’ve been coasting for long time, with such a big lead in division. Boston is 10-9 vs New York this season; 7-3 at home, 3-6 in the Bronx.

New York is in playoffs for third time in last six years; they haven’t been to a World Series since 2009. Red Sox are in playoffs for third year in row; they won World Series in 2013. Both managers here are rookie managers.

Indians (91-71) @ Astros (103-59)
Kluber is 4-0, 2.80 in his last six starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. He is 1-0, 1.35 in two starts vs Houston this year. Team in his starts: 21-12, 9-7 road
5-inning record: 19-8-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 8-33

Verlander is 3-0, 1.09 in his last five starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. He didn’t pitch against the Indians this year. Team in his starts: 21-13, 7-11 home
5-inning record: 22-6-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-34

Cleveland-Houston split six games back in May; home side went 2-1 in both series. Indians are in playoffs for 3rd year in row; they haven’t won World Series since 1948, but Francona won two WS titles with the Red Sox. Cleveland won a terrible AL Central; they won six of last nine games, are 6-7 in last 13 road games.

Astros won World Series LY; they’re in playoffs for third time in four years. Houston won eight of its last ten games.

National League
Rockies (92-73) @ Brewers (97-67)
Anderson is 1-1, 1.83 in his last three starts; over is 8-3-1 in his last 12. Team in his starts: 13-20, 7-9 road (lost his last five road starts) Anderson allowed seven runs in four IP in a 8-4 loss at Miller Park, back on August 4.
5-inning record: 14-10-9 Allowed run in 1st inning: 16-33

Former Rockie Chacin is 1-1, 3.20 in his last four starts; four of his last five starts stayed under. Team in his starts: 23-12, 8-6 home (lost last 3 home starts). Chacin beat Colorado 5-2 at Coors Field May 10, allowing two runs in 5.1 IP.
5-inning record: 16-10-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 8-35

Colorado won ten of its last 13 games, including four of last six on road. Brewers won their last nine games, only four of which were at home. Milwaukee is 6-2 against the Rockies this season, 3-1 at Miller Park.

Colorado lost Wild Card game LY, their first playoffs appearance since 2009. Brewers are in the playoffs for first time since 2011.

Braves (90-72) @ Dodgers (92-71)
Sanchez is 1-1, 1.57 in his last four starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight starts. Team in his starts: 13-11, 8-5 road
5-inning record: 8-12-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-24

Kershaw is 3-0, 4.80 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Kershaw beat the Braves 4-1 in Atlanta July 27, allowing two runs in 7.2 IP. Team in his starts: 16-10, 6-6 home
5-inning record: 15-7-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 4-26
Kershaw is 4-1, 4.24 in his last 11 postseason starts.

Braves lost five of their last six games; they’re in playoffs for first time since 2013. Dodgers won five in row, 11 of last 14 games; they won seven of last eight home games. LA is in playoffs for sixth year in row; they haven’t won a World Series since 1988.

______________________________

Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/18
Atl 32-30-13…..35-31-10………67-61
Colo 35-29-15……37-26-11……71-55
LA 40-28-8…….34-29-16……74-57
Milw 31-34-10…..39-30-8…….70-64

Boston 37-28-14……47-20-7……..84-48
Clev 30-30-14……46-21-10……..76-51
Astros 41-20-15……41-21-15…….82-41
NYY 34-24-15……44-25-8………78-48

%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 9/18)
Atl 23-74……31-77………54
Colo 23-78…….29-74.…….52
LA 26-75……..29-78..…..55
Milw 27-74…..…30-79…….57

Boston 19-76……29-74………47
Clev 20-73…….31-76…….51
Astros 21-75…..…18-76………39
NYY 18-74……..31-76………49

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Friday, October 5

Trend Report

Cleveland Indians
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Cleveland is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Cleveland is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Houston
Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 16 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Astros
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Houston's last 16 games when playing at home against Cleveland


Colorado Rockies
Colorado is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games
Colorado is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Colorado's last 16 games on the road
Colorado is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
Colorado is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Colorado's last 12 games when playing Milwaukee
Colorado is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games
Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Colorado
Milwaukee is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 12 games when playing Colorado
Milwaukee is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Colorado


New York Yankees
NY Yankees is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Yankees is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games
NY Yankees is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
NY Yankees is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games on the road
NY Yankees is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing Boston
NY Yankees is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston Red Sox
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games
Boston is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Boston is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games at home
Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
Boston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against NY Yankees


Atlanta Braves
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
LA Dodgers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
LA Dodgers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
LA Dodgers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
LA Dodgers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, October 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY YANKEES (101 - 62) at BOSTON (108 - 54) - 7:35 PM
J.A. HAPP (L) vs. CHRIS SALE (L)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 15-27 (-16.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Friday over the last 3 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 49-65 (-20.4 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 59-43 (-20.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BOSTON is 108-54 (+31.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 43-12 (+19.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -175 to -250 over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 52-24 (+17.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
BOSTON is 73-34 (+22.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
NY YANKEES are 98-65 (+22.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HAPP is 11-3 (+8.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
BOSTON is 543-493 (-66.1 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters since 1997.
BOSTON is 457-413 (-77.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
BOSTON is 239-239 (-64.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 10-9 (+1.0 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
11 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+4.6 Units)

J.A. HAPP vs. BOSTON since 1997
HAPP is 8-4 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.256.
His team's record is 13-7 (+7.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 12-8. (+3.0 units)

CHRIS SALE vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
SALE is 6-4 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 1.76 and a WHIP of 0.894.
His team's record is 7-7 (-3.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-6. (+1.2 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (91 - 71) at HOUSTON (103 - 59) - 2:05 PM
COREY KLUBER (R) vs. JUSTIN VERLANDER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 91-71 (-24.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 41-38 (-15.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
CLEVELAND is 11-15 (-14.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season.
CLEVELAND is 69-50 (-16.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CLEVELAND is 48-42 (-20.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
CLEVELAND is 25-34 (-21.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 152-76 (+33.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 5-9 (-10.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
HOUSTON is 46-35 (-27.3 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
HOUSTON is 39-35 (-15.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 7-12 (-16.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
VERLANDER is 0-5 (-9.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 8-11 (-19.3 Units) against the money line in home games this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-3 (+0.9 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.9 Units)

COREY KLUBER vs. HOUSTON since 1997
KLUBER is 5-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 3.04 and a WHIP of 1.207.
His team's record is 5-4 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-4. (+0.5 units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
VERLANDER is 20-24 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 4.68 and a WHIP of 1.315.
His team's record is 23-29 (-13.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 21-29. (-12.8 units)

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COLORADO (92 - 73) at MILWAUKEE (97 - 67) - 4:15 PM
TYLER ANDERSON (L) vs. JHOULYS CHACIN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 260-458 (-81.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 since 1997.
ANDERSON is 10-22 (-12.6 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MILWAUKEE is 97-67 (+24.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 52-34 (+16.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
MILWAUKEE is 22-7 (+11.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
MILWAUKEE is 52-30 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 31-16 (+11.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
MILWAUKEE is 19-8 (+11.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season.
MILWAUKEE is 71-55 (+23.6 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 98-82 (+13.2 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 45-34 (+13.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 23-14 (+11.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
CHACIN is 23-12 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
CHACIN is 21-12 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHACIN is 13-7 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHACIN is 19-14 (+9.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
COLORADO is 92-73 (+19.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
COLORADO is 23-17 (+9.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
COLORADO is 45-39 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
COLORADO is 23-17 (+9.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
COLORADO is 58-46 (+13.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
COLORADO is 54-40 (+19.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
COLORADO is 40-25 (+20.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 6-2 (+4.8 Units) against COLORADO this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.8 Units)

TYLER ANDERSON vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
ANDERSON is 1-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 8.59 and a WHIP of 1.636.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

JHOULYS CHACIN vs. COLORADO since 1997
CHACIN is 2-1 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 3.32 and a WHIP of 1.200.
His team's record is 3-1 (+3.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.3 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (90 - 73) at LA DODGERS (93 - 71) - 9:35 PM
ANIBAL SANCHEZ (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 45-57 (-29.8 Units) against the money line in October games since 1997.
ATLANTA is 30-42 (-25.0 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997.
SANCHEZ is 12-26 (-14.6 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KERSHAW is 40-11 (+20.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
ATLANTA is 90-72 (+18.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 28-34 (+23.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +175 to +250 over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 47-35 (+18.6 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ATLANTA is 59-50 (+7.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ATLANTA is 20-12 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss this season.
ATLANTA is 104-85 (+31.1 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
ATLANTA is 46-40 (+12.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ATLANTA is 30-33 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 93-71 (-20.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 46-37 (-20.1 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
LA DODGERS are 9-12 (-13.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less this season.
LA DODGERS are 65-53 (-18.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
LA DODGERS are 53-46 (-19.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
LA DODGERS are 12-16 (-15.5 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 6-2 (+2.9 Units) against ATLANTA this season
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.8 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)

ANIBAL SANCHEZ vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
SANCHEZ is 1-2 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.63 and a WHIP of 1.185.
His team's record is 3-4 (-0.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-5. (-3.4 units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. ATLANTA since 1997
KERSHAW is 5-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 1.32 and a WHIP of 0.915.
His team's record is 10-2 (+6.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-6. (-2.0 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Weather Report

Friday, October 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STARTER STAT OF THE DAY

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (9-5, 2.73 ERA, -$452): This isn't about Kershaw finishing outside the top 300 in player value despite putting up decent numbers in 2018. This is about the sensational Dodgers left-hander having allowed three or more runs in three of his previous starts while being taken deep seven times over his previous seven turns – signs that things might not be so rosy for him.

Add in the omnipresent narrative of Kershaw struggling in the postseason, and suddenly, the Braves are an intriguing option at +*** for Game 2. Kershaw is always capable of a big game, but we can't help wondering if that game is coming Friday night.


Runs Galore?

You can say this about the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry: it has produced some high-scoring affairs of late, with the teams having cashed the over in each of their last four encounters. And there are plenty of other over trends at work, as well: The Yankees have gone above the total in seven consecutive games, while the Red Sox are on a 9-1-1 O/U run over their past 11 games.

With questions swirling about Sale's effectiveness and Happ allowing four runs over five innings in his previous meeting with the Red Sox on Sept. 28, there's a lot to like about the over-8 play in this one.


The Wrong Man for the Job?

The playoffs take on an entirely different complexion than the regular season, but you must wonder if the Rockies have the right guy on the mound as they look to get back in their National League Division Series in Milwaukee. Friday starter Tyler Anderson is on a dismal run, with the Rockies having won just two of his previous 12 starts dating back to the end of July.

Anderson has straightened things out a little over his past three turns (19 2/3 IP, 4 ER), but he was torched for seven runs in four innings in his only visit to Milwaukee this season. The Brewers are a solid run-line play Friday at +135.


One-Run Wonders?

It seems like there is one team every year that uses an incredible record in one-run games to propel itself to playoff prominence. This year's edition: The Atlanta Braves, who enter Game 2 of their National League Division Series with the Dodgers having posted an incredible 23-12 mark in one-run games during the regular season.

Atlanta starter Anibal Sanchez will have his hands full keeping up with Kershaw and the Dodgers, but if this one is close, the Braves might just have the upper hand; consider the visitors to win by exactly one run and even this series at a game apiece.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 5
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

College Football Week 5 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 46-12
Against the Spread 26-32

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 37-21
Against the Spread 31-27

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 32-26


The largest underdogs to win straight up
Tulane (+14.5, ML +450) vs. Memphis, 40-24
Army (+7, ML +230) at Buffalo, 42-13
Florida (+7, ML +220) at Mississippi State, 13-6
Liberty (+7, ML +225) at New Mexico, 52-43
Virginia Tech (+6.5, ML +210) at Duke, 31-14

The largest favorites to cover
Georgia Tech (-28) vs. Bowling Green, 63-17
Wake Forest (-28) vs. Rice, 56-24
Appalachian State (-25) vs. South Alabama, 52-7
Arizona State (-22) vs. Oregon State, 52-24
Oklahoma (-21.5) vs. Baylor, 66-33

Top 25 Notes

-- The Big Ten showdown between Ohio State and Penn State lived up to the pregame hype, as it was a classic in Beaver Stadium. That is, unless you had the 'over', as the total (69.5) was never in question with a defense first three quarters. There were just 27 total points on the board heading into the fourth quarter before the offenses combined for a total of 26 points. There was the specter of overtime giving over bettors some hope, but that never came into fruition. It's too bad, too, as this one was fun to watch so overtime would have been a treat. The Buckeyes moved to 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS, and the 'under' is now 3-1 over their past four outings.

-- Alabama flew out to a 49-0 lead on Louisiana, erasing the 49-point spread by halftime. Unfortunately for Tide side bettors, they took their foot off the gas and the Ragin' Cajuns scored two fourth quarter touchdowns and 14 unanswered points for the backdoor cover, with their final TD coming with 3:58 to go. After opening 3-0 ATS, the Tide are 0-2 ATS across the past two outings.

-- Clemson certainly got a scare, especially when their starting quarterback exited the game and the third-string signal caller entered against Syracuse. The Orange had a 23-13 lead at one point during the fourth quarter, but the Tigers stormed back for 14 unanswered points in the final quarter to avoid a major upset at the hands of 'Cuse for a second straight season.

-- Washington was not about to get bitten by the Brigham Young upset bug. The Huskies fired out to a 35-0 lead heading into the fourth quarter, using their lockdown secondary to stymie the upset-minded Cougars. The Huskies entered the day just 1-3 ATS, and it was their first cover in three tries at home. The 'under' is now a perfect 5-0 on the season for the Dawgs, too.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- North Carolina State kept their record unblemished with a 35-21 victory over Virginia. The Wolfpack improved to 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS, including 3-0 ATS over the past three games. If you were an 'under' bettors (53) you weren't terribly pleased about the finish of this one (see below). ... Virginia Tech rebounded in a big way with a 31-14 road win at Duke, serving up the Blue Devils their first loss in five games. After opening 3-0 ATS, Duke is now 0-2 ATS over the past two. ... Miami-Florida paddled North Carolina 47-10 to pick up their fourth straight victory while going 3-1 ATS during the span. The 'over' is also 4-1 in their five outings this season.

-- Michigan State took care of Central Michigan 31-20, moving to 3-1 SU while slipping to 1-3 ATS overall. ... Northwestern nearly pulled off the upset, leading Michigan for most of the contest. However, the Wolverines ended up with the 20-17 win in Evanston, slipping to 2-3 ATS. They haven't covered in consecutive games yet this season and they're 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS in two road contests. ... Nebraska cannot seem to get out of their own way, as Scott Frost slipped to 0-4 SU/ATS after a 42-28 loss to Purdue. After opening 0-3 SU, the Boilermakers have won two in a row and they have covered three straight.

-- Oklahoma slapped the brakes on a three-game non-cover skid with a 66-33 win over Baylor. It was another 'over' for the Sooners, the fourth in five outings so far this season. ... Texas picked up an uneventful 19-14 victory at Kansas State, their first victory in Manhattan since 2002. They're still 0-2 ATS in two games away from Austin this season. Next up is the Red River Rivalry Game against the Sooners in Dallas. ... The side winner changed a handful of times since the midway point of the third quarter in Oklahoma State-Kansas. The Cowboys were laying 17, and they were covering or pushing for a good chunk of the contest. They went up 20 midway through the third quarter, only for Kansas to scored a TD early in the fourth. OK State returned the favor with 6:22 to go to cover agin, but Kansas struck quickly with 4:19 to pull back within 13. After a failed onside kick, the Cowboys ended up with a short field and they scored with 2:38 to go to earn the 48-28 win and cover.

-- After falling last week at USC, Washington State rebounded with a 28-24 win at home against Utah as short 'dogs on the Palouse. The Cougars struck with 4:14 to go in regulation, taking a 28-24 lead on an 89-yard touchdown, flipping the side in favor of the Cougs, and the total (50.5) also flipped on the big play. ... One of the other marquee matchups was Stanford-Notre Dame, but someone forgot to tell the Cardinal. After an emotional comeback last week at Oregon, head coach David Shaw's group was unable to bring it to that high of an emotional level for the second straight week in a tough road outing. The Irish blew their doors off 38-7, improving to 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS. Notre Dame has covered in back-to-back games for the first time this season.

-- Kentucky moved to 5-0 SU with a 24-10 victory against South Carolina, picking up their second straight cover for the first time this season. Who had the Wildcats moving within one game of bowl eligibility and the calendar doesn't even read October yet? ... Texas A&M posted a 24-17 win over Arkansas, as they held on for the win but slipped to 4-1 ATS with their first non-cover. ... Florida picked up a 13-6 win at Mississippi State in the Dan Mullen Reunion Bowl in Starkville. After opening an impressive 3-0 SU/ATS, the Bulldogs are 0-2 SU/ATS while scoring just 6.5 PPG in two SEC battles and Auburn looming on the schedule next week.

Mid-Major Report

-- Tulane posted the 40-24 win over Memphis, the biggest underdog (+14.5, ML +450) to pick up an outright victory. ... Cincinnati rolled to a 49-7 win over Connecticut, easily earning the cover as 16-point road favorites. The Bearcats improved to 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS, while the Huskies slipped to 1-4 SU/ATS, and 0-4 SU/ATS in four outings against FBS schools. ... Temple was unable to score the outright upset at Boston College, but the Owls earned their third consecutive cover.

-- It was a topsy-turvy day in Conference USA, as the two championship game representatives from a year ago, Florida Atlantic and North Texas each suffered losses in their conference openers. Middle Tennessee picked up the 25-24 win, posting the go-ahead touchdown with :38 to go to flip the side and deal Owls side bettors a bad beat. FAU slipped to 0-5 ATS. ... UNT was dropped at home by Louisiana Tech, as a blocked field goal sealed their fate. The under has cashed in four in a row for the Mean Green.

-- The game of the day in the MAC was Northern Illinois-Eastern Michigan, as these teams couldn't solve their differences until the third overtime. NIU ended up with a 26-23 road win, and 'under' (50.5) had to sweat out a winning ticket for an extra hour. EMU has dropped back-to-back games in overtime, as they could very well be 4-1 SU. The Eagles are a solid 4-1 ATS so far. ... Miami-Ohio fell short against Western Michigan 40-39, but they held on for the cover at most shops. This line moved from Miami favored by 1.5 to WMU favored by 2.5 during the week, but the sharps got it wrong in this one.

-- New Mexico fell 52-43 to Liberty, in a high-scoring battle, as the 'over' is now 4-0 for UNM through four games. ... Fresno State posted an impressive 49-27 win over visiting Toledo, moving to 3-1 SU/ATS in four games this season. ... Hawaii was back on the mainland for the third time this season, and it ended a lot better than last time around. Well, sorta. They picked up a 44-41 win in overtime at San Jose State, scoring 41 or more points for the fifth time in five games. However, after opening 2-0 ATS they're just 0-3-1 ATS across their past four outings.

-- Troy earned a 45-21 win over Coastal Carolina to win and cover for the fourth straight outing. ... Appalachian State rolled to an impressive 52-7 win against South Alabama, picking up their fourth cover in as many outings. The 'over' is also a perfect 4-0 so far this season for the Mountaineers.

Bad Beats

-- The Owls of FAU had a 21-3 lead at one point, and it looked like they were going to handily cover a three-point line on the road. However, Middle Tennessee stormed back and outscored the Owls 22-3, including a touchdown and two-point conversion with :38 left in regulation to flip the cover from FAU to Middle Tennessee.

-- Western Kentucky was leading Marshall by a 17-13 score after a go-ahead TD at 6:50 left in regulation. The Thundering Herd posted the TD with 1:44 to go, taking a 20-17 lead to kill moneyline bettors of the Hilltoppers. For those laying three and the hook, the Herd didn't do nearly enough at the end.

-- For those holding 'under' (69) tickets, the lack of offense in the second half of ULL-Bama was nice. However, the Ragin' Cajuns scored a TD with 3:58 to go to not only send the total over, but also flip the side from a push at most shops to a non-cover for Bama.

-- In the UVA-NC State game, there was a total of 53. There were a couple of things that went wrong if you had an under ticket here. With :52 left in the first half, there were just 17 total points on the board. However, the Wolfpack scored 10 quick points in the final minute of the second quarter to take a 20-7 lead, suddenly putting the over on track. It was a defense battle again in the third and most of the fourth, but the Pack scored with 7:25 for a total of 49 points. Under bettors were still feeling pretty good, but then the Hoos moved the ball into the red zone and punched one in with 3:08 to go to push the total over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 5
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the fifth big college football weekend to close September. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Michigan State (-27) 31, Central Michigan 20: The Spartans didn’t appear likely to cover trailing 3-0 until four minutes into the second quarter but Michigan State managed to flip the game to hold a 17-3 edge at the half and slipped past the spread momentarily with a 31-3 edge through three quarters. Central Michigan put up 17 points in the fourth to seal the underdog cover in an oddly uneven game with Central Michigan winning the first and fourth quarter 20-0 but outscored in the middle two quarters 31-0.

Northern Illinois (+3.5) 26, Eastern Michigan 23: After falling behind 10-0 early Northern Illinois dominated this game holding Eastern Michigan to negative net yards over nine consecutive possessions. The Huskies only led 13-10 in the fourth quarter and benefited from a missed field goal from the Eagles with about six minutes remaining. The Huskies weren’t quite able to run out the remaining clock and in the final two minutes Eastern Michigan managed to get back into field goal range and successfully forced overtime. Both teams scored with relative ease in the first overtime in the second session NIU was poised to score quickly again but fumbled at the four-yard-line. Eastern Michigan played it safe and set-up a 38-yard kick that was missed. In the third overtime Chad Ryland redeemed himself with a 42-yard field goal as the Eagles took the lead but the Huskies converted two big 3rd downs and got into the end zone for six and the minor MAC upset.

Indiana (-14½) 24, Rutgers 17: The Hoosiers led 24-7 at halftime at Rutgers but wound up unable to score in the second half with a pair of punts and a pair of turnovers in Rutgers territory. After an early fourth quarter fumble from Indiana Rutgers drove for a touchdown a few plays later to get within the spread. The Knights added a field goal after a Peyton Ramsey interception for a touchback but the Knights never got the ball back with a chance to tie down by only seven.

Washington State (+1) 28, Utah 24: After a high scoring 21-21 first half Utah got an early field goal in the third quarter and that appeared like it would be enough with an exchange of six straight punts with the Utes controlling the ground game with a 204-0 rushing edge in this Pac-12 affair. The Cougars got the big play it needed with an 89-yard touchdown pass through a pair of missed tackles with four minutes remaining to take the lead. Utah appeared poised to answer with a 36-yard gain on a 4th-and-10 play just across midfield, reaching the 7-yard-line with enough time to work with but the play was wiped out with a holding penalty and the Utes failed on the subsequent 4th-and-20 attempt.

Western Michigan (-3) 40, Miami, OH 39: The Redhawks led by 13 at the half and still sat up by six heading into the fourth quarter but things got interesting in the final half of the fourth quarter. Western Michigan completed an 89-yard drive to take a 34-33 lead but it took less than a minute for Miami to answer going up by five and opting to go for two and failing. Western Michigan would put together another long scoring drive that featured a 4th-and-10 conversion and also opted to go for two in a critical play relative to the spread with the Broncos favored by -1½ to -2½ most of the week before closing at -3. That conversion attempt also failed and with nearly three minutes remaining Miami had a great opportunity to get back in front. The Redhawks converted a 3rd-and-21 play but then fell short on a 3rd-and-3 opportunity and opted for a 50-yard field goal attempt that was no good. The one-point loss was enough to hold on for a narrow home underdog cover for the Redhawks however.

Georgia Southern (+3) 28, Arkansas State 21: The Sun Belt favorites trailed 7-3 at the half but managed to tie the game at 14-14 late in the third quarter and then at 21-21 with about five minutes remaining. Overtime looked certain as Georgia Southern faced 3rd down near midfield with fewer than 30 seconds remaining but Wesley Kennedy broke free for a 47-yard touchdown run for the upset.

Alabama (-48) 56, UL-Lafayette 14: Alabama had a 28-0 lead not even 13 minutes into this game and eclipsed the massive spread by halftime. A 94-yard pass play with reserves in the game put Alabama up 56-0 late in the third quarter but the Ragin’ Cajuns scored twice in the fourth quarter to take the backdoor cover.

Texas (-8½) 19, Kansas State 14: Texas led 19-0 at halftime with the help of a 90-yard punt return touchdown. Kansas State managed to score on its opening possession out of halftime and then watched Texas miss a field goal late in the third quarter. It took 16 plays and two 4th down conversions but Kansas State went 70 yards for another touchdown to get within the underdog spread early in the fourth quarter. Texas wasn’t able to add points but they forced a 3-and-out on the last Kansas State possession and ended the game taking a knee at the Kansas State 20-yard-line.

Oklahoma State (-17) 48, Kansas 28: The Jayhawks trailed by 20 through three quarters but made a late charge with two touchdown drives in the final frame. Oklahoma State ultimately answered each time including a spread-saving touchdown with 2:38 remaining. On its final possession Kansas wound up losing five yards in four plays as they weren’t a threat to steal the underdog cover back late.

Middle Tennessee State (+3) 25, Florida Atlantic 24: The Owls led 24-10 late in the third quarter but a 19-yard punt handed the Blue Raiders good field position and Middle Tennessee State scored three plays later to take just a seven-point deficit into the fourth quarter. Florida Atlantic opted to go for it on a 4th down play just short of the 50 and came up short to shift the field position and after a pair of punts Middle Tennessee State had the ball back just inside FAU territory with almost four minutes remaining. With a 4th down conversion with about two minutes to go Middle Tennessee State faced 4th-and-goal in the final minute and delivered a rushing touchdown. Down one the Blue Raiders went for the win and got the two-point conversion to shake up the early Conference USA race and send Lane Kiffin and the Owls to 0-5 ATS.

Arizona State (-22) 52, Oregon State 24: The Sun Devils had just a 14-point lead well into the fourth quarter before scoring two touchdowns in the final 10 minutes. The first score came after Oregon State failed to score despite reaching the 1-yard-line and the second touchdown came after the Beavers again failed on 4th down in Arizona State territory. Oregon State fumbled near midfield on its final possession when a touchdown would have still flipped the spread result.

USC (-3½) 24, Arizona 20: USC led 24-0 into the third quarter before Arizona finally got on the scoreboard. Down 24-7 into the fourth quarter Arizona took advantage of a USC fumble, scoring on the next play to trail by only 10 with about 10 minutes remaining. USC again fumbled on the next possession but Arizona failed going for it on 4th-and-long past midfield with about six minutes to go. The Trojans opted to also try to pick a up a first down just outside field goal range with about four minutes remaining but came up short leaving the Wildcats in position for a potential backdoor cover. Arizona quickly reached the red zone with a pair of penalties helping the cause and had 1st-and-goal at the 1 to seemingly be in position to deliver a miracle for those on the underdog. It took until 4th down but Arizona did get a touchdown in the final two minutes but incredibly missed the extra-point, as most USC backers escaped holding on to the road favorite cover by a half point.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Friday, October 5

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MIDDLE TENN ST (2 - 2) at MARSHALL (3 - 1) - 10/5/2018, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MARSHALL is 2-0 against the spread versus MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
MARSHALL is 2-0 straight up against MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GEORGIA TECH (2 - 3) at LOUISVILLE (2 - 3) - 10/5/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 27-44 ATS (-21.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UTAH ST (3 - 1) at BYU (3 - 2) - 10/5/2018, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 1-1 against the spread versus UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 1-1 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 6

Trend Report

Friday, October 5

Georgia Tech @ Louisville
Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Georgia Tech is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games

Louisville
Louisville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Louisville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

Middle Tennessee @ Marshall
Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Middle Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

Marshall
Marshall is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Marshall is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games at home

Utah State @ Brigham Young
Utah State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah State's last 6 games
Utah State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Brigham Young
Brigham Young is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Utah State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Brigham Young's last 6 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 6

Friday, October 5

Middle Tennessee St @ Marshall

Game 307-308
October 5, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Middle Tennessee
77.756
Marshall
78.034
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Middle Tennessee
Even
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Marshall
by 7
52
Dunkel Pick:
Middle Tennessee
(+7); Under

Georgia Tech @ Louisville

Game 309-310
October 5, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia Tech
84.053
Louisville
85.844
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Louisville
by 2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia Tech
by 4 1/2
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Louisville
(+4 1/2); Under

Utah State @ Brigham Young

Game 311-312
October 5, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah State
90.350
Brigham Young
88.967
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah State
by 1 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Brigham Young
by 3
55
Dunkel Pick:
Utah State
(+3); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 6

Friday’s games
Home side won four of last five Middle Tennessee-Marshall games; Blue Raiders lost last two visits here, 42-17/49-24. MTSU allowed 533 rushing yards in its last two games, but they rallied late to beat FAU 25-24 last game. Since ’13, MTSU is 6-12-1 as road underdogs, 3-8 in last 11 games as C-USA road underdogs. Marshall is 4-9 in its last 13 games as a favorite, 3-6 in last nine as home favorites. Thundering Herd are 2-1 vs I-A teams, with both wins on road- they lost at home to NC State. C-USA home favorites are 2-4 vs spread so far this season.

Last four years, Georgia Tech is 0-8 vs spread as road favorites; they’re 1-3 vs I-A teams this year, losing road games at USF (49-38), Pitt (24-19). Tech is 5-13 vs spread last 18 times they were favored by less than 10 points. Three of their last four games went over. Louisville is 1-3 vs I-A teams this year, with a narrow win over WKU- under Petrino, Cardinals are 3-2 as home underdogs. These teams have been in ACC together for five years; this is their first ACC meeting. Louisville outgained Florida State by 51 yards LW, but lost 28-24 at home to the Seminoles.

BYU won four of its las six games with Utah State, splitting last six; Aggies lost two of last three visits to Provo, losing 28-10/6-3, winning 35-20. USU scored 102 points in winning its last two I-A games, and that was after an impressive 38-31 loss at Michigan State. Under Wells, State is 8-12 as road underdogs, 3-8 in games with spread of 3 or fewer points. BYU is 3-6 in last nine games as a home favorite, 5-7-1 in last 13 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Cougars are 2-2 vs I-A teams this season, with wins at Arizona/Wisconsin- they lost 35-7 at Washington LW.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Remaining unbeaten ATS teams in FBS college football:

Washington State 5-0 ATS
West Virginia 4-0 ATS
Florida International 4-0 ATS
Utah State 4-0 ATS
Syracuse 4-0-1 ATS
Appalachian State 3-0 ATS
Georgia Southern 3-0 ATS


Remaining winless ATS teams in FBS college football:

Nebraska 0-4 ATS
Florida Atlantic 0-4 ATS
Connecticut 0-4-1 ATS
Texas - San Antonio 0-3-1 ATS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot & Not Report

Week of October 1st

The month of October is always a great time of year for sports bettors as you've got college and pro football in full throat, the MLB playoffs on tap (with a few extra games to boot this year) and the NHL and NBA starting up this month as well. There is no shortage of action for bettors to break down and it's only going to get busier with college basketball up next in November. But we've briefly got to look back before moving ahead as last week's topics in this piece had some interesting results.

To start, the trend of 'overs' cashing for NFL teams off a TNF home game cashed another ticket very easily with Cleveland's controversial 45-42 loss in Oakland. For as much sweating as there was for bettors on the side in that game, those holding an 'over' ticket were already counting their money by the end of the 3rd quarter. Riding that trend is now a perfect 3-0 O/U this year and the team next up in that situation is the Super Bowl favorite L.A Rams. The Rams are off a shootout themselves and considering they've scored at least 30 points in all four games this year, if you like the 'over' with them this week (at Seattle with total currently sitting at 49.5) it's probably better to get your money in sooner rather than later. Especially with the Seahawks now missing safety Earl Thomas.

The one-hit wonder QB's ended up going 1-0 ATS on Sunday, although if you just look at their respective teams with Garoppolo now on the shelf, it was a nice 2-0 ATS Sunday to buck their trend. Houston and San Francisco got the job done ATS-wise in tight games, and tonight we get to see if Denver's Case Keenum can make it 3-for-3.

However, this week my focus shifts back over to the collegiate game and some lesser known conferences that don't always get the love (or eyeballs) that they probably should in the betting markets. None of these programs are going to be national title contenders, but your bankroll doesn't care if it's a big game or not, it just wants to grow. Hopefully we can do that by playing on/against a few of these programs this upcoming week.

Who's Hot

Teams from the Sun Belt's East Division – 13-5 ATS in 2018; 4-1 ATS the past week

Games featuring Sun Belt teams are probably most known by casual bettors as the ones they typically skip over because it's these teams that are the ones catching +30 or more points against the Georgia's and Alabama's of the world. Just this past weekend we had Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt West Division) getting +49 against the Crimson Tide, a play which ended up getting there thanks to Nick Saban taking his foot off the gas in the final frame. There are some quality football teams relative to most of their opponents in the Sun Belt though, specifically in the East division this year.

Four of the five teams in the Sun Belt East – which includes Troy, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, and Coastal Carolina – have winning records SU through five weeks, but more importantly they are 13-5 ATS combined on the season. That number includes a 4-1 ATS record this past week with the only loss coming in a division rivalry game between Troy and Coastal Carolina where one of them had to lose. But Georgia Southern and Georgia State each won SU as home 'dogs, while Appalachian State blew the doors off a bad South Alabama squad.

A 13-5 ATS record though is not something that should be overlooked five weeks into the season now – nearly the halfway point – as these are programs that probably catch a few extra points against the “big boys” simply because of perception. It's going to be tough to find those spots going forward as it's basically conference play from here on out, but for those of you interested in following some of these Sun Belt East teams, you won't have to wait very long. Georgia State visits Troy on Thursday night with Troy laying -17 as of now. Given that Georgia State is the lone team in the division with a losing record SU (2-3) and ATS (1-3), backing the home side may be the way to go.

Who's Not

'Unders' in games featuring MAC East teams – 8-16 O/U combined this year

The conference affectionately known as “MACtion” has long been a CFB conference known for high-scoring games and some very suspect defense (although Khalil Mack came from the MAC). It's a league that made the brilliant move a few years back to switch their schedules around so that their conference games would be featured heavily on their own on Tuesday's/Wednesday's from late-October on (another thing we have to look forward too), as the uptempo style many schools here like to play is a boom for offensive football. We've seen coaches in this conference also you success in the MAC as a launching point for their own personal careers – think P.J Fleck in Minnesota now – as these offenses can be well-oiled machines at times and score with almost anyone in the country. It's the same story this year too, as 'unders' are not something you really want to be involved with in MAC games, especially when programs from the East division are involved.

The MAC East consists of Buffalo, Miami (OH), Akron, Ohio, Bowling Green, and Kent State. In 2018 those programs are a combined 16-8 O/U, and considering only Buffalo has a SU winning record through five weeks, their really isn't much defense being played here. Three of the six teams have point differentials of -37 or more, with the 1-4 SU Bowling Green Falcons a brutal -119 points so far in 2018. How you decide to use this information in the coming weeks is up to you – as fading these teams ATS with brutal defenses might be another strategy to employ – but I can tell you that there won't be many times I'll be looking at 'unders' in games involving these teams in the foreseeable future.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Week 6 college football bettors jump on Notre Dame's opening odds vs. Virginia Tech
Patrick Everson

Notre Dame is 5-0 SU and easily won and covered the past two weeks, against Wake Forest and Stanford. The Superbook opened the Irish -5.5 at Virginia Tech, and the line quickly went to 6.

Week 6 of the college football season features three teams looking to stay firmly in the College Football Playoff conversation. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of contests, with insights from Derek Wilkinson, sportsbook supervisor at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 23 Virginia Tech Hokies (+5.5)

Notre Dame won three one-score games the first three weeks of the season, then steamrolled through the past two weeks. After hammering Wake Forest on the road, the Fighting Irish (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) dropped Stanford 38-17 as a 4.5-point home chalk in Week 5.

Virginia Tech was dealt a shocking Week 4 loss, getting outscored 28-7 in the fourth quarter at Old Dominion in a 49-35 setback as a 27.5-point favorite. The Hokies (3-1 SU and ATS) bounced back Saturday at Duke, rolling to a 31-14 win catching 6.5 points, despite not having starting QB Josh Jackson, who broke his leg in the loss to ODU.

“Notre Dame is playing very well right now and coming off a big win against Stanford,” Wilkinson said. “The line has already moved to -6, and we’re anticipating it to be -6.5 or -7 by game time.”


No. 20 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners (-7.5)

The Red River Rivalry resumes, with Oklahoma putting its perfect mark on the line in a neutral-site game at the Cotton Bowl. The Sooners (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) got a huge Week 4 home scare against Army, winning in overtime, but followed with a 66-33 wipeout of Baylor laying 21.5 points at home.

Texas lost its season opener to Maryland, then notched four straight wins to get back on track. In Week 5 at Kansas State, the Longhorns (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) held on for a 19-14 victory as an 8.5-point fave.

“This is going to be a good matchup,” Wilkinson said. “Oklahoma is the better team, so we favored them by a little more than a touchdown. But the Longhorns are going against a Big 12 archrival. I think this line will drop to Oklahoma -7 pretty soon.”


No. 6 Louisiana State Tigers at Florida Gators (+3)

Louisiana State is out of the gate 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS), including a key Week 3 upset victory at Auburn. Last weekend, the Tigers flattened Mississippi 45-16 giving 11.5 points at home.

Florida rebounded from a Week 2 upset home loss to Kentucky by rattling off three straight wins and covers. The Gators (4-1 SU and ATS) got through a Week 5 slog at Mississippi State, winning 13-6 as a 6.5-point favorite.

“We got some sharp action early on this game. It’s already down to LSU -2, and it could even be a pick ‘em by Saturday,” Wilkinson said. “These teams always play tight games against each other, and Florida is tough at home.”


No. 15 Kentucky Wildcats at Texas A&M Aggies (-6)

Kentucky is another unbeaten Southeastern Conference team looking to make some noise. The Wildcats (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) have won all of their games by double digits, including last week’s 24-10 home victory over South Carolina in a pick ‘em game.

Texas A&M has two losses already, but those came to perennial powerhouses Clemson – A&M fell by 2 at home – and Alabama. In Week 5, the Aggies (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) beat Arkansas 24-17 as a hefty 20-point chalk.

“It’ll be interesting to see which way this line moves. We aren’t sure yet, but 6 feels like the right number to me,” Wilkinson said. “A&M might have two losses, but they were against the two best teams in the country.”