Sunday 10-7-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 358404

    #31
    Sunday, Oct. 7

    Baltimore Ravens (-3, 47.5) at Cleveland Browns

    The Ravens have won and covered five consecutive meetings in this series, and the 'under' has cashed in three in a row. Cleveland hasn't had a lot of success against most teams, but they have especially struggled against Baltimore. The last win on home turf against the Ravens came on Nov. 3, 2013. The 'over' is 4-1 in the past five meetings on the shores of Lake Erie. The Westgate Superbook opened the Ravens are -1.5 and they're already up to -3 in less than 24 hours, likely aided by Baltimore's impressive showing on Sunday night in Pittsburgh.

    Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 51.5)

    Perhaps the two best teams in the AFC square off in Kansas City when the Jaguars meet the Chiefs at Arrowhead. It will be interesting to see how Jacksonville's lockdown defense handles QB Patrick Mahomes and the high-octane Kansas City offense. Offshore book BetOnline.ag opened this one at 52.5, and it was quickly down to 51.5. There is a large dispartity in the total line, however, as Westgate had the number at 47.5 on Monday afternoon, up to 48.5 by kickoff on Monday.

    Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 39) at Buffalo Bills

    The Titans picked up a big win against the defending Super Bowl champs last week, following up a nice road win against the Jags. The Bills, on the other hand, were blanked in Green Bay after their shocking win in Minnesota the previous week. Most shops have the Titans installed as 3.5-point favorites, although you can find a bargain at the Golden Nugget and Westgate at -3.

    New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-7, 44.5)

    The Panthers are coming off a bye, and they're 4-1 ATS in the past five coming back from their off week. If you're not feeling the flat seven, you can still catch the Cats -6.5 at Treasure Island as well as Southpoint.

    Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 57.5)

    The Falcons allowed 79 points over their past two games at home, both losses, including one against the AFC North rivals of the Steelers. The Steelers have also been pretty shabby on defense, so it's no surprise this game features the highest total on the board. Atlanta has allowed 30.5 points per game (PPG), while Pittsburgh has yielded 29.0 PPG to date.

    Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 50.5) at Detroit Lions

    The 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings in this NFC North rivalry, including each of the past three battles at Ford Field. Green Bay was swept in this series last season, but they also spent a majority of 2017 without QB Aaron Rodgers. Despite last season's sweep, the books have the Pack listed as slight favorites. If you like Green, TI has them listed at just -1.

    Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 50.5)

    The Dolphins were dumped by the Patriots in Foxboro by a 38-7 score, splashing cold water on their 3-0 SU/ATS start. Now, they'll meet a Cincinnati club which has posted 34 or more points in three of their four outings, with the 'over' hitting in all four contests. You can still catch this one at a flat 50 points at the Golden Nugget as well as Southpoint.

    Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, 53.5)

    The Raiders will battle the Chargers in Carson. In the past six home games, the Bolts are 4-2 SU, while going 9-4 SU in their past 13 home contests against the Silver and Black. However, the Chargers are just 2-7 ATS in their past nine games at home against the Raiders. The 'under' is also 10-2-1 in the past 13 home games against the Raiders, so perhaps the line is rather high. The Strat has the line at 54.0 as of Tuesday early morning.

    Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 41)

    The Cards were shuffled to 0-4 SU by the Seahawks, losing a heartbreaker at home. Arizona enters as the only winless team in the league at the quarter-pole, although there is optimism with QB Josh Rosen. The 49ers are down to backup QB C.J. Beathard, as QB Jimmy Garoppolo is done for the season due to a knee injury. Beathard wasn't a total disaster, though, and San Francisco covered in his first start last week against the Chargers.

    The 'under' is 3-1 in the past four home games for the Niners against the Cards, and the total has gone under in six of the previous eight in this series. This is the second-lowest total on the board, with all major Vegas books consistent at 41 points.

    Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 44.5)

    It's a rematch of the NFC Championship Game played Jan. 21, and the Vikings hope it goes a little better. The Vikings were destroyed 38-7 by QB Nick Foles and company. He will be holding a clipboard in this one, while Minnesota's starter in that game, QB Case Keenum, is now playing his trade in Denver. Most books have held steady at -3, while Southpoint has Philly laying -3.5.

    Los Angeles Rams (-7, 50.5) at Seattle Seahawks

    The Rams won and pushed at a majority of shops last Thursday against Minnesota, and they have had a few extra days to prepare for Seattle. The Seahawks had major drama with safety Earl Thomas breaking his leg and then showing off his displeasure while leaving the field, saluting the Seattle sideline.

    Seattle has been one of the best teams against the number against divisional foes, hitting at a 56.7 percent clip at 17-13-2 ATS since 2013. The Rams, meanwhile, rank 27th in the NFL in divisional ATS, going 13-18, or 41.9 percent.

    Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-3.5, 45)

    The Lonestar State battle takes place on Sunday night at NRG Stadium, and the Texans are flying high after Frank Reich gifted them a win in Indy, their first of the season in four tries.

    This one will be interesting, as it's another one of those solid defense vs. high-flying offense matchups. Dallas rans No. 5 in the NFL by allowing just 306.2 total yards per game, while Houston has posted 24.0 PPG through four contests. A majority of the books have the home team listed at three and a hook, but you can find a flat three at Caesars/Harrah's, as well as Treasure Island.
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 358404

      #32
      FOURNETTE OUT MULTIPLE GAMES

      The injury fallout from Sunday continues as it’s being reported that Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette will miss multiple games, including a mouth-watering matchup with Kansas City on Sunday. T.J. Yeldon will start in Fournette’s place and Corey Grant will change the pace so we’re staying away from the committee backfield and looking to receiver Keelan Cole for a prop.

      We’ve done well with Cole so far this season, correctly calling his Over 3.5 receptions in Week 3 and then his Under 58.5 receiving yards in Week 4. It seems Cole is the kind of player who is being scripted in and out of weekly game plans. This week, coach Doug Marrone should be looking towards Cole as he game plans without Fournette and against a Chiefs team that ranks dead last in passing defense. We’ll be leaning towards the Over on Cole’s reception total.
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 358404

        #33
        CHARGERS LOSE WHITE

        L.A. Chargers’ linebacker Kyzir White had a knee scope on Monday and is considered week to week. White might not be a household name, but the rookie was playing on 73 percent of defensive snaps and has been solid in pass coverage. The Chargers’ loss is Jared Cook’s gain. The Raiders’ tight end is on fire and is coming off an 8-110-2 performance against the Browns on Sunday. Cook is Derek Carr’s most trusted target and that was clear when the Raiders lined him up as a wideout on third-and-3 late in overtime and threw him a jump ball — which he came down with. The Chargers-Raiders game on Sunday looks to be a shootout with a total set at 53.5 and bettors can expect a lot of balls thrown in Cook’s direction. We’re taking the Over on his reception total.
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 358404

          #34
          COOK STILL NOT HEALTHY

          Minnesota running back Dalvin Cook admitted on Monday that his hamstring still isn’t 100 percent and that fans need to be patient with the Vikings’ run game. This is not what Vikings backers want to hear from their star running back who is coming off a 10-rush, 20-yard performance against the Rams on Thursday night.

          Cook will likely play on Sunday, but we are going to be fading whatever his rushing yards total is as he’s in the worst possible spot for a running back with a trip to Philadelphia. The Eagles have been the best against the run so far this season, giving up just 63.8 rushing yards per game. They gave up just 24 yards on 12 combined carries to Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis on Sunday and 37 yards on 11 combined carries to Jordan Wilkens and Nyheim Hines in Week 3. No one has been able to run on the Eagles yet this season and that’s not likely to change with a hobbled Cook. Take the Under on his rushing total with confidence.
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 358404

            #35
            Sunday, Oct. 7

            BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
            Ugh! Browns 3-0 vs. line TY, but have lost and failed to cover last five vs. Ravens. Harbaugh 4-1 vs. spread last five in games immediately following Steelers.
            Tech Edge: Slight to Ravens, based on series trends.

            JACKSONVILLE at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
            Chiefs 4-0 SU and vs. line , have now won and covered eight straight in reg season since late 2017. Also “over” 4-1 last five in reg season. Jags 9-4 vs. spread last 11 away and 7-2 last 9 as dog.
            Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs and “over,” based on recent trends.

            TENNESSEE at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
            Bills 1-3 last four as home dog. Titans 3-7 last ten vs. line away in reg season, but have won and covered last 3 in 2018.
            Tech Edge: Slight to Titans, based on recent trends.

            N.Y. GIANTS at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
            Eli “under” 9-2 last 11 since mid 2017. Cam has covered first two at home in 2018 after just 5-8 as Charlotte chalk previous two years, and “over” 7-3 last ten reg season.
            Tech Edge: Slight to “under," based on Giants’ “totals” trends.

            DENVER at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
            Vance Joseph on 2-13-1 spread skid since early 2017. Denver also “under” 8-3 last ten since mid 2017. Jets 6-2-1 last 9 vs. line at MetLife, also “under” 4-2 since late 2017, including 23-0 loss at Denver last December.
            Tech Edge: “Under” and Jets, based on ‘totals” and team trends.

            ATLANTA at PITTSBURGH (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
            Steel “over” first three TY and five straight since late 2017. Tomlin also just 3-6 last nine as home chalk, but Falcs only 4-7 vs. spread away since LY. Falcs now “over” 2 in a row after “under” 8 straight from late 2017.
            Tech Edge: “Over,” based on recent “totals” trends.

            GREEN BAY at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
            Pack “over” 27-12 since mid 2016. Pack lost and failed to cover both vs. Lions LY (Rodgers out in each) for first time since Wayne Fontes was coaching Detroit in ‘91. Last five and 6 of last 7 in series “over” as well.
            Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

            MIAMI at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
            Tannehill 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 vs. line in his last ten starts. Dolphins also on 10-5 “over” run. Cincy 4-1 vs. points last five at Paul Brown and “over” five straight since late 2017.
            Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

            OAKLAND at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
            Raiders had covered three straight and 7 of 8 at Bolts in SD before LY at StubHub. Underdog team 15-3 last 18 meetings. Series “under” 4-1 last five.
            Tech Edge: “Under” and Raiders, based on “totals” and extended series trends.

            ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
            Cards “under” first four TY and 14-6 since start of 2017. Also 2-7 vs. line last 9 away though has won and covered last two at Levi’s.
            Tech Edge: "Under" based on “totals” trends.

            MINNESOTA at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
            Zimmer no covers last three TY, but 18-9 as reg season dog entering 2018. Pederson 12-5-1 vs. line in reg season at Linc since taking over in 2016.
            Tech Edge: Vikings, based on extended Zimmer dog marks.

            L.A. RAMS at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
            Rams 3-0-1 vs. line TY, and “over" 13-7 in reg season since McVay arrived LY. Hawks just 3-7 vs. spread last ten reg season at home.
            Tech Edge: Rams and slight to “over,” based on recent team and "totals" trends.

            DALLAS at HOUSTON (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
            Texans 1-9 SU last ten, 2-8 vs. line in those. Though only three of those ten at home. Dallas no covers first two away TY , and “under” 11-2 last 13 since mid 2017.
            Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 358404

              #36
              NFL's Top ATS Teams Heading Into Week 5:

              1. Chiefs 4-0 ATS
              t2. Rams 3-1 ATS
              t2. Ravens 3-1 ATS
              t2. Bears 3-1 ATS
              t2. Bengals 3-1 ATS
              t2. Jaguars 3-1 ATS
              t2. Dolphins 3-1 ATS
              t2. Titans 3-1 ATS
              t2. Browns 3-1 ATS
              t2. Lions 3-1 ATS
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 358404

                #37
                NFL's Worst ATS Teams Heading Into Week 5:

                32. Broncos 0-3-1 ATS
                t22. 49ers 1-3 ATS
                t22. Steelers 1-3 ATS
                t22. Jets 1-3 ATS
                t22. Giants 1-3 ATS
                t22. Texans 1-3 ATS
                t22. Bills 1-3 ATS
                t22. Falcons 1-3 ATS
                t22. Eagles 1-3 ATS
                t22. Chargers 1-3 ATS
                t22. Cowboys 1-3 ATS
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 358404

                  #38
                  NFL's Top OVER Teams Heading Into Week 5:

                  t1. Bengals 4-0
                  t1. Chargers 4-0
                  t1. Buccaneers 4-0
                  t4. Falcons 3-1
                  t4. Lions 3-1
                  t4. Packers 3-1
                  t4. Chiefs 3-1
                  t4. Steelers 3-1
                  t4. 49ers 3-1
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 358404

                    #39
                    NFL's Top UNDER Teams Heading Into Week 5:

                    1. Cardinals 4-0
                    t2. Cowboys 3-1
                    t2. Broncos 3-1
                    t2. Patriots 3-1
                    t2. Giants 3-1
                    t2. Seahawks 3-1
                    7. Redskins 2-1
                    t8. 14 teams tied at 2-2
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 358404

                      #40
                      Some interesting NFL trends for the week:

                      — Steelers are 2-8 vs spread in their last ten games.

                      — Chargers are 2-11 vs spread in last 13 AFC West home games.

                      — Minnesota is 12-3 vs spread in its last fifteen games.

                      — Chiefs are 7-2 in last nine games as a home favorite.

                      — 49ers are 3-10 in their last 13 games as home favorites.

                      — Washington is 2-8 in game following its last ten byes.
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                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 358404

                        #41
                        PACKERS DOWN RECEIVERS

                        Green Bay has some issues at receiver with Randall Cobb (hamstring) and Geronimo Allison (concussion) both on the wrong side of questionable ahead of Sunday’s game in Detroit. In addition, Jimmy Graham (knee) missed practice on Wednesday and Davante Adams (calf) was limited — both are expected to play but clearly, neither is at 100 percent.

                        With skill players dropping around him like flies, life isn’t getting easier for a hobbled Aaron Rodgers whose numbers have been quite pedestrian so far this season as he has yet to break the 300-yard passing mark. This week, he plays an underrated Lions passing defense that ranks second in the NFL, giving up just 171.8 yards per game. Sunday is trending towards being a tough day for Rodgers and we’re leaning towards the Under on his passing yards total of 299.5.
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 358404

                          #42
                          SHOOTOUT IN STEEL CITY

                          If you like shootouts, look no further than the Atlanta-Pittsburgh game on Sunday that has a total that opened at 55 and has since been bet up to 57.5. Both teams are stacked on offense and hurting on defense, meaning points should come early and often. Oddsmakers are expecting huge games from just about everyone, but Pittsburgh tight end Vance MacDonald might not be getting the respect he deserves on the props market.

                          Since his debut in Week 2, MacDonald has been an important piece of the Steelers’ offense with lines of 3-26-0, 4-112-1, and 5-62-0. He’s also received a steady five targets each week and is running a pass route on 80.6 percent of his snaps, the highest rate of any tight end in the NFL. He’s one of the few players who doesn’t have an inflated total for Sunday and we’re liking MacDonald to go over his Over 3.5 receptions total.
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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 358404

                            #43
                            Gridiron Angles - Week 5
                            Vince Akins

                            NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

                            -- The Rams are 10-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since Dec 24, 2000 as a favorite off a game as a favorite where they allowed at least 22 first downs.

                            NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

                            -- The Seahawks are 0-10-1 ATS (-5.1 ppg) since Oct 05, 2015 when their last two games have gone under the total and they won the last one.

                            TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

                            -- Teams are 10-0 OU (9.3 ppg) since Oct 25, 2015 coming off a loss where Kirk Cousins threw at least 40 passes.

                            NFL O/U OVER TREND:

                            -- The Vikings are 10-0 OU (12.6 ppg) since Nov 11, 2001 as a dog coming off a road loss that went over the total by at least seven points.

                            NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

                            -- The Ravens are 0-13 OU (-9.5 ppg) since Sep 18, 2005 as a road favorite coming off a game where they had at least 250 passing yards.

                            NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

                            -- The Raiders are 0-13 ATS (-12.50 ppg) as a dog off a home win in which they had a takeaway margin of at least plus-two.
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 358404

                              #44
                              Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Preview and Predictions 10-07-2018 in MLB

                              MLB Previews 6th October 2018 by Gracenote
                              Brewers vs. Rockies Preview and Predictions

                              by Gracenote on 10/06/2018

                              The Milwaukee Brewers are on the verge of advancing to the National League Championship Series for the first time since 2011 and all they have to do is win one of the next three games. The Brewers will try to take care of things quickly and earn a sweep of the best-of-five NL Division Series when they visit the Colorado Rockies for Game 3 on Sunday.

                              Milwaukee relied on the depth of its bullpen and its lineup to win the first two games of the series, with hitters in the bottom half of the order doing the offensive damage in a 4-0 victory in Game 2. "We've become a team with a lot of depth, and that's how we're going to have to win," Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell told reporters. "They're making an effort to be very, very cautious with (MVP candidate Christian) Yelich. It's pretty clear. So, guys behind him are going to have opportunities." The Rockies totaled two runs in the first two games of the series but went 47-34 at home during the regular season and will send their two best pitchers - German Marquez and Kyle Freeland - to the mound in the next two games. "I think playing at home can get us going. We still need to do what we have to do to win. We've got to pitch well and we have to swing the bats," Colorado manager Bud Black told reporters. "We have pitched well (in Milwaukee) but we haven't swung the bats. Again, day off (Saturday), get back on the horse on Sunday and see where we are."

                              TV: 4:37 p.m. ET, MLB Network

                              PITCHING MATCHUP: Brewers LH Wade Miley (5-2, 2.57 ERA) vs. Rockies RH German Marquez (14-11, 3.77)

                              Miley last suffered a loss at St. Louis on Aug. 18 but slowed over the final few weeks of the regular season. The Louisiana native did not record an out in the sixth inning during any of his last four starts and was roughed up for a combined seven runs - six earned - across seven innings over his last two turns. Miley, who is making his postseason debut, went up against the Rockies on Aug. 5 and was reached for three runs on five hits and three walks over five innings without factoring in the decision.



                              Marquez is a strikeout machine and finished 2018 with a career-high 230 across 196 innings. The 23-year-old Venezuelan did not allow more than three earned runs in any of his last 13 starts and surrendered two or fewer in 11 of those turns. Marquez, who is also making his postseason debut, suffered through one of his worst outings at home against Milwaukee on May 10, when he yielded five runs on 12 hits and three walks while striking out three over 4 2/3 innings.

                              WALK-OFFS

                              1. The Brewers are winners of 10 straight games going back to the regular season.

                              2. Colorado SS Trevor Story is 0-for-8 with five strikeouts in the series.

                              3. Brewers LHP Josh Hader did not allow a baserunner in a combined 1 2/3 innings over the first two games.

                              PREDICTION: Rockies 6, Brewers 2
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                              • Can'tPickAWinner
                                Super Moderator
                                • Nov 2012
                                • 358404

                                #45
                                Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves Preview and Predictions 10-07-2018 in MLB

                                MLB Previews 6th October 2018 by Gracenote
                                Dodgers vs. Braves Preview and Predictions

                                by Gracenote on 10/06/2018

                                The Los Angeles Dodgers are playing their best baseball of the season at just the right time, as they are on the verge of reaching the National League Championship Series for the third consecutive year entering Game 3 of the NL Division Series Sunday against the host Atlanta Braves. The Dodgers have dominated in building a 2-0 series lead, hitting five homers and not allowing a run or a walk while receiving 15 innings from starters Hyun-Jin Ryu and Clayton Kershaw to improve to 21-9 since Sept. 1.

                                Joc Pederson has sparked Los Angeles' offense, belting a leadoff homer in the series opener before beginning Game 2 with a double and scoring on Manny Machado's two-run blast later in the frame as the team took a first-inning lead in each contest. "We're just excited that we got the lead early on, and we're able to feed off that," Pederson told reporters regarding an offense that has scored nine runs despite registering only 10 hits - seven for extra bases. The Braves have scored fewer than two runs in six of their last seven contests and are 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position in the series, as rookie Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ender Inciarte are the only two members of the team with more than one hit after two games. "You can't blame any one person," Atlanta manager Brian Snitker told reporters. "I mean, it's just our whole lineup is having a hard time."

                                TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1

                                PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers RH Walker Buehler (8-5, 2.62 ERA) vs. Braves LH Sean Newcomb (12-9, 3.90)

                                Buehler has been the one constant in a rotation hit hard by injuries this season, as the rookie has posted a 2.31 ERA in 23 starts (he allowed five runs in one relief appearance) while holding opposing hitters to a .185 batting average and a .531 OPS. The 24-year-old is 4-2 with a 1.55 ERA, 87 strikeouts and 41 hits allowed over 75 1/3 innings in his last 12 starts, limiting Colorado to one hit over 6 2/3 frames in the NL West tiebreaker game on Monday. Buehler defeated Atlanta at home on June 8, surrendering one run and two hits in 5 1/3 innings.



                                The Braves planned to start Kevin Gausman, but after seeing the Dodgers succeed against right-handers in the first two games, they decided to turn to Newcomb, who came within one strike of tossing a no-hitter versus Los Angeles on July 29. The 25-year-old struggled after that outing, giving up five or more runs four times in his next eight starts, but finished the season with 5 2/3 scoreless frames. Newcomb worked two impressive innings of relief in Game 1, allowing one hit with two strikeouts while throwing 17 of his 25 pitches for strikes.

                                WALK-OFFS

                                1. The Dodgers are the first team since the 1921 New York Yankees to open a postseason series with back-to-back shutouts.

                                2. Snitker told reporters during Saturday's off-day that he plans to move Inciarte into the No. 2 spot in the batting order, as 3B Johan Camargo has gone 0-for-8 in the series.

                                3. Los Angeles RHP Kenley Jansen gave up one hit with one strikeout during a scoreless ninth inning in Game 2.

                                PREDICTION: Braves 4, Dodgers 2
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