Monday 10-8-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 5


Monday, October 8

Washington @ New Orleans

Game 477-478
October 8, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
131.666
New Orleans
135.996
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 4 1/2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 6 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+6 1/2); Over

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NFL

Week 5

Monday
Redskins (2-1) @ Saints (3-1)— RB Ingram is back from suspension for the Saints; expect more running from NO’s offense. Saints scored 43-33 points in winning last two games, with 15 plays of 20+ yards. Since ’14, NO is 9-18-1 as home favorites. Redskins allowed only 14.7 ppg in its 2-1 start, holding all three opponents under 5.6 yards/pass attempt; they’re 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games as road underdogs. Washington is 4-2 in last six series games, but lost 29-24/47-14 in last two visits to Bourbon Street. Average total in last five series games: 72.2. Under Gruden, Redskins are 1-2-1 SU in pre-bye games, 1-3 vs spread. NFC East teams are 3-9 vs spread outside their division; NFC South teams are 4-4.

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Opening Line Report - Week 5
Joe Williams

We have passed the quarter-pole of the National Football League regular season and there are just two teams with unblemished records, the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams. We almost lost the Chiefs from the ranks of the unbeaten on Monday night, but they rallied from 10 points down on the road against the Denver Broncos to not only win, but cover a 3.5-point number, too. The Chiefs are also the only team in the NFL with a perfect 4-0 ATS record through four games.

Week 5 features sees two more teams on byes, as the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be on the shelf. The Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins are also back from their Week 4 rest.

Monday, Oct. 8

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 52.5)

The Redskins are back from their bye, and rest hasn't done them very much good. They're just 2-8 ATS over their past 10 games following a week off.

Meanwhile, the Saints have scored 76 points over the past two games and they're averaging 34.3 PPG through four outings. However, New Orleans is 0-2 ATS in two home games, which is likely why they're favored by less than a touchdown after laying 10 in each of their first two games in the Crescent City. You can still catch the Saints at -6 at Treasure Island, while you can grab the 'Skins at +7 at Golden Nugget if you're feeling the road team instead.

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Tech Trends - Week 5
Bruce Marshall

Monday, Oct. 8

WASHINGTON at NEW ORLEANS (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Road team has covered all four Saints games to date. Brees “over” 8-4 last 12 as host. Jay Gruden “over” 10-4 last 14 away from FedEx Field.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

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Some interesting NFL trends for the week:

— Washington is 2-8 in game following its last ten byes.

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MNF - Redskins at Saints
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Redskins (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) were one of two teams to have their bye week in Week 4 as Washington will be well-rested heading to the Big Easy. Washington rebounded from a 12-point home loss to Indianapolis to pound Green Bay in Week 3 as short home underdogs, 31-17. The Redskins jumped out to a 28-10 halftime lead behind two touchdown passes from Alex Smith and two short touchdown runs by Adrian Peterson.

The future Hall of Fame running back rushed for a season-best 120 yards, while Smith put together his second multi-touchdown passing game of the season. The Redskins improved to 2-0 SU/ATS as an underdog this season, but own a 6-6 ATS mark when receiving points since the start of 2017. Washington moved to 5-2 in its past seven home games against teams outside the NFC East, while scoring its most points at FedEx Field since dropping 42 on Green Bay in 2016.

The Saints (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) return home following a pair of road victories over the Falcons and Giants. New Orleans scored four times in the second quarter, but none of those scores were touchdowns as it led New York, 12-7 at halftime. The Saints pulled away in the second half thanks to a pair of Alvin Kamara touchdown runs to beat the Giants, 33-18 to cash as 3 ½-point road favorites.

New Orleans put up seven scores for the second consecutive week, while Kamara reached the end zone three times in a game for the first time in his career. Drew Brees threw for a season-low 217 yards and failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time in 2018. Brees is one of two starting quarterbacks that has yet to throw an interception this season along with Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes.

NOT SO SUPER AT THE DOME

The Saints have struggled to cover numbers at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome this season by failing to cover against the Buccaneers and Browns. Granted, both those games closed with New Orleans laying 10 points each, but the Saints own a 2-5 ATS record in its past seven home contests. However, the Saints are 5-2 ATS since the start of 2017 as a single-digit home favorite with one of those non-covers coming against the Redskins last November.

SERIES HISTORY

Washington has covered six consecutive matchups with New Orleans dating back to 2006, including last season’s 34-31 overtime defeat at the Superdome. The Redskins grabbed a commanding 31-16 fourth quarter lead on Kirk Cousins’ third touchdown pass of the day, but the Saints would even things up in the final three minutes. Brees hit Josh Hill for a short touchdown pass, followed by a Brees to Kamara 18-yard connection. Kamara ran in the ensuing two-point conversion to tie the game at 31-31, while Wil Lutz knocked in a 28-yard field goal to win it for New Orleans in overtime.

The Redskins cashed as 9 ½-point underdogs, while the past five meetings with the Saints have sailed OVER the total. Washington last won in New Orleans in the 2012 opener, 40-32 in Robert Griffin III’s coming-out party as the Heisman Trophy winner threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns (including an 88-yard strike) in the victory.

TOTAL TALK

In spite of several high-scoring outputs, the Saints are 2-2 to the OVER, as last week’s game against the Giants barely finished UNDER the total of 51 ½. The Redskins went UNDER the total in each of the first two weeks before busting out for an OVER against the Packers. Washington started last season with a 5-1 OVER mark on the road, but each of the past three games away from FedEx Field have gone UNDER. The Saints are currently on a 5-2 OVER run the last seven home contests, while scoring at least 31 points five times in this span.

UNDER THE LIGHTS

The Saints are winless in their last three Monday night affairs since 2015, including home defeats to Detroit (2015) and Atlanta (2016). New Orleans fell in the Monday night opener at Minnesota last season, 29-19 as its most recent Monday victory came in 2014 at Chicago. The Redskins haven’t fared much better on Mondays by posting a dreadful 1-8 SU/ATS record since 2014, including a pair of losses to Kansas City and Philadelphia.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson weighs on the first quarter of the Saints’ season, “Ryan Fitzpatrick lit up the New Orleans defense in Week 1 for a 48-40 loss for the Saints at home and the Saints had narrow escapes against the Browns and Falcons before a slightly more comfortable win against the Giants last week. New Orleans has been a great finisher this season with 68 points in four games after the start of the fourth quarter.”

From a defensive standpoint, the Redskins will hope to not only shut down the Saints, but also score on New Orleans according to Nelson, “The biggest statistical mismatch in this contest appears to be pass defense with Washington second in the NFL allowing just 5.4 yards per attempt while New Orleans is last in the NFL allowing 9.6 yards per attempt. The schedule has played a role but New Orleans has allowed 11 passing touchdowns while getting only one interception this season.”

GAME PROPS

Total Completions – Alex Smith
OVER 23 ½ (-110)
UNDER 23 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Alex Smith
OVER 1 ½ (-140)
UNDER 1 ½ (+120)

Total Gross Passing Yards – Drew Brees
OVER 300 ½ (-110)
UNDER 300 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Drew Brees
OVER 2 (-160)
UNDER 2 (+140)

Total Rushing Yards – Alvin Kamara
OVER 66 ½ (-110)
UNDER 66 ½ (-110)

Will Michael Thomas score a touchdown?
YES (+105)
UNDER (-125)

LINE MOVEMENT

The Saints opened up as seven-point favorites, but that number has dipped down 6 ½ at some books and even down to six at a majority of outfits. The total opened at 52 ½ and has stayed steady at that number with several books bumping the total up to 53.

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Jack Jones

Oct 08 '18, 4:30 PM in 17m
MLB | Dodgers vs Braves
Play on: Dodgers -145 at BMaker

Jack’s Free Pick Monday: Los Angeles Dodgers -145
The Los Angeles Dodgers lost Game 3 yesterday by a single run to the Braves. But I expect them to bounce back with a victory Monday in Game 4 and close out this series due to the advantage they have on the mound in this one.
Rich Hill is 11-5 with a. 3.69 ERA and 1.116 WHIP in 24 starts this season, 6-1 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.039 WHIP In 13 road starts, and 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.632 WHIP in his last three starts. Hill is also 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in seven career starts against Atlanta.
Mike Foltynewicz has had a very good season for the Braves. However, he has never been able to figure out the Dodgers. Folty is 1-2 with a 7.43 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in three career starts against Los Angeles. Two of those have come this season as he has allowed 8 earned runs, 4 homers and 15 base runners in 7 innings while losing both.
The Dodgers are 9-2 in their last 11 games following a loss. Los Angeles is 7-1 in its last eight divisional playoff games. The Dodgers are 5-0 in Hill’s last five starts. Los Angeles is 11-1 in Hill’s last 12 starts vs. NL East opponents. The Braves are 0-5 in their last five vs. a left-handed starter. Atlanta is 1-5 in Folty’s last six starts vs. a team with a winning record. Los Angeles is 27-11 in the last 38 meetings. Bet the Dodgers Monday.

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Info Plays

Oct 08 '18, 4:30 PM in 17m
MLB | Dodgers vs Braves
Play on: Dodgers -144 at sportsbook

1* Free Play on Dodgers -144

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Frank Sawyer

Oct 08 '18, 4:30 PM in 17m
MLB | LAD vs ATL
Play on: UNDER 8 +100

Take Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Mike Foltynewicz. Atlanta (91-74) stayed alive in this NLDS last night with their 6-5 victory over the Dodgers. Despite that game going Over the Total, these two teams have still played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. The Braves have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Los Angeles (94-72) has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 24 games against teams with a winning record, the Under is 16-7-1 for the Dodgers. Take the Under while listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

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Brandon Lee

Oct 08 '18, 4:30 PM in 17m
MLB | Dodgers vs Braves
Play on: Dodgers -148 at betonline

10* FREE MLB PICK (Dodgers -148)
I'll take my chances here with the Dodgers finishing off the Braves this afternoon. Atlanta was able to avoid getting swept with a 6-5 win on Sunday, but I'm not buying that as a sign of the series shifting in their favor. It's amazing the Braves were able to score 6 runs, as they only had 4 hits for the game. Keep in mind they were shutout in both games 1 and 2 in LA. I look for Atlanta's offense to continue to struggle against the Dodgers pitching, especially with Rich Hill on the mound. As for the Braves, they will take another shot with Mike Foltynewicz, who started Game 1 and was pulled after allowing 4 runs on 3 hits (2 HRs) and 3 walks in just 2 innings of work. Give me the Dodgers -148!

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Dustin Hawkins

Oct 08 '18, 7:35 PM in 3h
MLB | Red Sox vs Yankees
Play on: Red Sox +148 at Bovada

Free Play on Red Sox +148

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Totals Guru

Oct 08 '18, 8:15 PM in 4h
NFL | Redskins vs Saints
Play on: Redskins +6½ -105 at Bovada

Free Total Annihilator On away +6½ -105

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Steve Janus

Oct 08 '18, 8:15 PM in 4h
NFL | Redskins vs Saints
Play on: UNDER 53 -110

1* Free Sharp Play on Redskins vs Saints under 53 -110
My money is on the UNDER 53 when the Saints host the Redskins on Monday Night Football to close out Week 5 of the NFL. The public loves to back the OVER in prime time games and more than 75% of the bets are coming in on the OVER, yet we are seeing the number get smaller. That's a great sign the UNDER is the right side and I definitely think that's the case. Washington ranks inside the Top 10 in the league against both the run and the pass. It's easily the best defense the Saints have seen since they hosted the Browns in Week 2 and they scored just 21 points with a little more than 300 yards of offense. The Saints defense has been hit or miss. They gave up 48 to the Bucs and 37 to Falcons, but held both the Browns and Giants to a mere 18 points. Washington isn't a team built to score in bunches and we saw them only manage 9 points at home against the Colts in Week 2. Home crowd should be a big plus for the Saints defense and I think this one has a much better chance of being a defensively battle than a shootout. Bet the UNDER 53!

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Scott Rickenbach

Free Pick Monday CFL Side

Calgary vs. Montreal, 10/08/2018 13:00 EDT

Point Spread: +13½/-110 Montreal

Sportsbook:
Bookmaker

Rickenbach CFL Game #656 Monday Free PICKS: Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 1 ET and OVER the total in Montreal Alouettes vs Calgary Stampeders @ 1 ET - I like BOTH the side AND the total as Free PICKS for Game 1 of Monday's double-header in CFL action on Thanksgiving Day in Canada. The Alouettes have been playing better in recent weeks, particularly on offense and they can hang tight in this game with Calgary. While it is true that the Stampeders are the best team in the CFL it is also true that Montreal has a bye week on deck while Calgary has a divisional match-up next. The Als will go all-out here in a game where they would love nothing more than to score a big upset at home and get some payback for an embarrassing loss at Calgary in July. The Alouettes are 5-1 ATS in games against teams with a winning record this season. Montreal is 3-0 to the over in their last 3 Monday games. The Stampeders are 3-5 ATS in October games. Calgary is 5-0 to the over in road games with a posted total between 49.5 and 52 points. Per all of the above you can see why my Free Picks for Monday are on the OVER and on MONTREAL in this match-up. Best of luck, Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach

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Scott Rickenbach

Free Pick Monday CFL Total

Calgary vs. Montreal, 10/08/2018 13:00 EDT

Total: -110/+50½ Over

Sportsbook:
Bodog

Rickenbach CFL Game #656 Monday Free PICKS: Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 1 ET and OVER the total in Montreal Alouettes vs Calgary Stampeders @ 1 ET - I like BOTH the side AND the total as Free PICKS for Game 1 of Monday's double-header in CFL action on Thanksgiving Day in Canada. The Alouettes have been playing better in recent weeks, particularly on offense and they can hang tight in this game with Calgary. While it is true that the Stampeders are the best team in the CFL it is also true that Montreal has a bye week on deck while Calgary has a divisional match-up next. The Als will go all-out here in a game where they would love nothing more than to score a big upset at home and get some payback for an embarrassing loss at Calgary in July. The Alouettes are 5-1 ATS in games against teams with a winning record this season. Montreal is 3-0 to the over in their last 3 Monday games. The Stampeders are 3-5 ATS in October games. Calgary is 5-0 to the over in road games with a posted total between 49.5 and 52 points. Per all of the above you can see why my Free Picks for Monday are on the OVER and on MONTREAL in this match-up. Best of luck, Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach