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8-Unit Play. Take Baltimore (-3) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Monday, Oct. 7) This play is from my NFL 411 System. I love the Ravens in this game. This team dominated Pittsburgh on the road last week. That game was not as close as the final score looked like. The Ravens have outgained all four of their opponents and they look like one of the top teams in the AFC right now. Baltimore's defense is No. 2 in total yards allowed and is in the Top 5 in passing defense, rushing defense, and points allowed. This it he toughest defense that rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield has faced. Mayfield had four turnovers last week against the Raiders. That game was a tough loss for the Browns and this team can't stop blowing games. They blew chances at wins against the Steelers, Saints and Raiders and are now 1-37-1 in their last 39 games! The Ravens are 5-0 ATS in the last five games in this series and they are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Baltimore is 4-0 ATS in its last four games in Cleveland. The Ravens are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 divisional games. Cleveland is 16-35 ATS in their last 51 games and 6-17 ATS in their last 23 home games. The Browns are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games against the AFC and just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 divisional games. Cleveland has gotten better. But the Ravens are still much better than the Browns and I think that they will dominate the young team and its rookie quarterback. Go with Baltimore here. Allen Eastman
7-Unit Play. Take #453 Jacksonville +3 over Kansas City (Sunday, October 7th at 1:00 PM ET) Take Jacksonville ATS as my 7-Unit NFL Smash for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I have the Jaguars winning this game by 10+ points on the road Sunday. The Jaguars are one of the best defensive teams in the NFL while the Chiefs are one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL. The Jaguars have allowed just 733 total passing yards this season and they are #1 against the pass in the NFL this season. The Chiefs have depended on the arm of Mahomes to get it done, however he has never faced a secondary or defense as good as what the Jaguars are bringing Sunday. I do expect Mahomes to struggle against this Jaguars defense just like Manning and Brady did this season. The Jaguars have also allowed the least number of touchdowns in the NFL this season with 4 TD's against them this season. The Chiefs have allowed 363 passing yards per game this season with opponents completing 66% of their passes against them and 66.7% of their passes against them at home. The Jaguars have allowed just 164 pypg this season and just 3 points per game in the 1st half of games this season, compared to the Chiefs who have allowed 474 yards per game and 14.3 ppg in the 1st half of games this season. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games played between these two teams and the Chiefs are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on Sunday after playing on Monday Night Football. Play Jacksonville ATS as we move to 10-0 with my NFL picks this season.
3* #453 Jacksonville Jaguars +3 over Kansas City Chiefs 12:00 PM CTThe Jaguars survived a three turnover game to actually still win by 19 points last week against the Jets. Leonard Fournette’s return was short-lived but Jacksonville has matched Tennessee at 3-1 in the South ahead of a pair of tough road games. The Chiefs were in Denver Monday, just barely remaining the last perfect team in the AFC after posting dazzling numbers in the first three weeks and needing a late comeback last week after just 13 points through three quarters. Kansas City out-gained its opponent last week for the first time in four weeks and leaned on the running game with a big night from Kareem Hunt. The short turnaround could be a concern for Kansas City with this likely the best defense Patrick Mahomes has ever faced. Mahomes has been incredibly impressive but he will face rainy conditions in Kansas City as well this week putting his 14:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the line. The defensive numbers for Jacksonville are elite across the board holding opponents to 60 percent completions and allowing just three touchdowns this season in the air, while surrendering only 5.8 yards per attempt. The Chiefs in contrast have allowed the second most passing yards in the league while surrendering 7.9 yards per attempt and 66 percent completions. Kansas City has the worst run defense in the NFL allowing 5.7 yards per attempt including allowing 7.2 yards per rush vs. Denver on Monday. Teams that win on Monday night on the road are on an 18-29 ATS run the following week, including 9-18 ATS when playing as a home favorite. The league also admitted they erred in what should have been a delay of game penalty on a critical 3rd-and-long play for the Chiefs at the two-minute warning, a play that went for 35 yards and effectively won the game in Denver. The Chiefs also still nearly surrendered the lead in the final seconds before a Denver fumble in the red zone. Kansas City has great playmakers but this pace isn’t sustainable and Jacksonville is an ideal team to disrupt Kansas City’s offensive rhythm. Blake Bortles has also posted strong numbers while facing several quality defensive teams, completing 69 percent of his passes the past three weeks. Kansas City’s tough early season schedule no longer looks as formidable with none of those teams featuring a winning record and with New England up next this might be the ideal spot to catch Kansas City. Undefeated teams in Week 5 or later that have covered in at least three consecutive games are also 6-14-1 ATS since 2011. 2* #464 Detroit Lions +1 over Green Bay Packers 12:00 PM CTConsidered by most a serious Super Bowl threat, the Packers lost badly in its only road game so far this season while playing very tight games vs. division foes this season, beating the Bears by one with a miracle comeback and tying with Minnesota. Last week everything went right hosting Buffalo with the Bills likely one of the league’s worst teams, playing a rookie quarterback, and coming off one of the bigger upsets in NFL history. Even so the Packers managed just 22 points and had missed opportunities and turnovers. Detroit is in a critical spot at 1-3 and the Lions were sharp at home in Week 3 beating the Patriots in a blowout. Detroit’s last two losses have come by five combined points as the Lions are a promising underdog in most situations and the Lions have won and covered in three of the past five Ford Field games with the Packers. Aaron Rodgers is considered by most the best quarterback in the league but he ranks 13th in QB Rating and his limited mobility right now has led him to be sacked 12 times in four games. He has been held out of practice this week and he is on pace to have the second worst completion rate of his career. Matthew Stafford has seven touchdowns and just one interception the past three weeks while completing over 71 percent of his passes as he will climb up the leaderboard by season’s end distancing himself from the disastrous opening game vs. the Jets.. Both teams have struggled stopping the run while Detroit has been a surprisingly productive rushing team in recent games, posting 4.6 yards per rush for the season with great success behind Kerryon Johnson the past two weeks. The Packers are 3-7 S/U the past 10 road games while 2-5 ATS the past seven games as a road favorite. Green Bay has allowed at least 31 points in eight of the last 11 road games and with the team’s top four receivers on the injury report this week, Green Bay could be a limited team for this division road game. 2* #465 Miami Dolphins +6 over Cincinnati Bengals 12:00 PM CTAndy Dalton came through leading the Bengals to a huge win in Atlanta last week. The offense has been fantastic with over 31 points per game but losing Tyler Eifert is a big blow with Joe Mixon missing the last two games and John Ross and Giovani Bernard are also on the injury report this week. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed points and yardage but also has turned in big plays and a 3-1 September came through a formidable schedule with three of four on the road. Miami’s great opportunity to take command of the AFC East went as it often has with a lopsided loss to the Patriots. The Dolphins are now in a second straight road game but the quality results in the first three weeks shouldn’t be forgotten just yet. Miami has the sixth best run defense in the NFL allowing just 3.7 yards per rush while the Dolphins lead the NFL in interceptions with nine. Miami doesn’t have a lot of sacks but they have had success deflecting passes, always a concern for Andy Dalton as one of the shorter quarterbacks in the league. Cincinnati’s defense has 10 sacks but for only 50 yards while posting only three interceptions and allowing nine touchdown passes. Cincinnati has allowed over 28 points per game including surrendering 68 points the past two weeks. Dalton has received some positive attention this season but Ryan Tannehill is 7th in the NFL in QB Rating and the Dolphins are gaining 8.4 yards per pass attempt. Dalton has thrown the second most interceptions in the league in the league now facing the league-leading defense in interceptions. Dalton might not have much support on the ground in this game with the injured backfield which could mean forced throws into coverage against Miami’s opportunistic defense. These teams know they could be in competition for a wild card spot in the AFC by season’s end as this is a critical game with the underdog points very appealing given that the Bengals could be without four of their top six offensive skill players against a very good defense that just got humiliated in the previous game.
Sunday card has the 6* NFC Total of the Month from a 21-0 system as well as our Tier one Play. There is also a 5* Sunday night Side and MLB Game 3 N.L.D.S Total NFL Comp Play below
The NFL Comp play is on Arizona at 4:25 eastern. The Card are off a pair of close home losses. Road dogs off back to back home dog losses have been solid through the year, particularly against losing teams. These two have one win between them and the Niners cashed big for us last week as a big dog. Now they are favored off a close loss. However. Home teams off a road loss by 1-3 points have failed to cover 33 of 44 times if they were a dog of 10 or more. The Cards are 6-0 to the spread off back to back losses and the Niners are 0-11-2 ats as a home favorite and 1-8 ats in weeks 5-9. In games after having 2 or more turnovers on the road the Niners are 0-8 ats. The road team has covered the last 4 in this series. Take the points with Arizona. On Sunday we have a tremendous card up with an Exclusive Tier one Play, the 6* NFC Total of the Month from a 21-0 system, a Sunday night 5* Side and game 3 N.L.D.S Total. Message or see us on facebook to jump on. For the NFL Comp Play. Take the points with Arizona. RV- GC Sports
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