1-6-09

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

Legend Play

There has been a HUGE 'move' on Tulsa in this game since bowl lines were first announced back in early December and while I wish everyone could play this game at the "original number," I have no major concerns that laying the small price on Tulsa now, will result in a different "ATS outcome" than if one would have taken Tulsa as a small underdog or at "pick'em," earlier in the bowl season. Ball State is in a similar situation to Alabama, as it's perfect season was foiled in a conference championship game. However, while Alabama lost to red-hot Florida in the SEC title game, Ball State lost to an overachieving Buffalo team, as QB Nate Davis three an interception and was involved in FOUR lost fumbles, two of which were returned for TDs of 92 and 74 yards. Ball State lost 42-24 to the Bulls in the MAC championship game, despite a 503-301 yardage advantage. We saw Alabama come out "flat as a pancake" vs Utah and that was with Nick Saban as its head coach. Ball State, which was released by the MAC from the Motor City Bowl to get a more favorable and attractive matchup here with Tulsa, must deal with the fact that former-alum and head coach for the last six years (Brady Hoke), used Ball State's record-setting season in 2008 to get the San Diego State job (Hoke was named the MAC's coach-of-the-year in 2008). Taking over for Ball State in this game is Stan Parrish, who has been the offensive coordinator for the team since 2006. Parrish probably never thought he'd get another shot as a Division I head coach after recording a 2-30-1 mark in three years at Kansas State in the late 1980s. However, he's been in the assistant ranks for years (many stops) and now gets his chance. Ball State QB Nate Davis (66.9 percent / 3,446 yards / 26 TDs and 7 INTs) had a terrific season and MiQuale Lewis (1,701 / 5.6 YPC / 22 TDs) leads a running game which averaged 192.7 YPG (5.1 YPC / 31 TDs). Ball averaged 36.3 PPG but the team's offensive numbers pale in comparison to Tulsa's. Tulsa enters averaging 47.4 PPG and 565.1 YPG, figures that both rank second in the nation. QB Johnson completed 64.8 percent of his passes for 3.866 yards with 43 TDs and 18 INTs. He led the nation in QB passing efficiency for most of the year, until a terrible outing in the C-USA championship game (five INTs and a fumble). While Ball State has an excellent running attack spearheaded by Lewis, Tulsa averages just over 60 more yards per game on the ground (254.8 / 5.4 YPC / 37 TDs) with a plethora of RBs. Adams (1,316 / 5.8 YPC / 10 TDs) is the lead back but four other payers have run for between 251 and 467 yards, with individual averages of 6.4, 7.9, 7.7 and 6.6 YPC! Four of Johnson's receivers have at least seven TD catches plus part-time TE Collums, has six catches in his six games, FIVE of which have been for TDs. This is really a unique team, one which scored 77 points in a win over UTEP, yet allowed 70 points in a loss to Houston. Both team's have major weaknesses on defense but this will be a 'shootout,' so defense will NOT the decide the winner (although turnovers, may?). One can't handicap turnovers, so I won't bother to try. Ball State didn't play anyone of note outside of the MAC in 2008 and the four MAC teams in this year's bowl season have been just dreadful. Central Michigan was the first conference team in action, losing 24-21 in the Motor City Bowl to a 6-6 FAU team from the Sun Belt, as a TD favorite. Northern Illinois scored a single TD against a 7-5 La Tech team in the Independence Bowel (lost 17-10). Western Michigan fell behind Rice 38-0 in a 38-14 loss in the Texas Bowl and just this past Saturday, Buffalo lost 38-20 to U Conn in the International Bowl, only staying that close because of FIVE turnovers by the Huskies. In all, the MAC's first four bowl representatives have been outscored by an average of 29.3 PPG-to-16.3! Ball State has been to four bowls since 1989, losing all four, including 52-30 to Rutgers in LY's International Bowl. Some history buffs may want to claim six career bowls for Ball St, as the team appeared in two Grantland Rice Bowls as well, but let me note that in 1965 Ball Sate tied Tennessee Tech 14-14 and in 1967 lost to Eastern Kentucky 27-13 in those games. Getting back to Tulsa, while the Ball State program has lost its head coach to San Diego St (is that really an improvement?), Tulsa's Todd Graham just agreed to a new 10-year contract on New Year's Day. Tulsa did lose to East Carolina 27-24 in the C-USA title game (SEVEN turnovers did them in) but the Golden Hurricane (at 10-3) have reached double-digit wins two seasons in a row for the first time in school history. The 10 wins matches a school record accomplished six previous times and a win here sets a new school record. Graham was quoted as saying, "Our program is about winning championships and we've got a chance to win a bowl championship." Tulsa beat Bowling Green (another MAC school) in last year's GMAC Bowl 63-7, outgaining the Falcons 562-229 in yards. It's "deja vu all over again," here.

Legend Play on TULSA

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

Big Al

3* Utah cbb

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

Ben Burns

Predicted Winner: Tulsa Golden Hurricane

I'm laying the points with TULSA. This game sets up very much like the "Opening Day" matchup between BYU and Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl. In that game, BYU came in with the much better record (Cougars were 10-2, Wildcats were 7-5) and also was ranked in the Top 25. Yet, Arizona, which was not ranked in the Top 25, was the favorite. Naturally, the majority of the betting public was quick to back the ranked team which was getting points. However, I felt there was good reason that the unranked Wildcats were favored and used them as my "Opening Day Main Event." Arizona went on to win by 10 points. Tonight, it's Ball State which brings the better record and the Top 25 ranking to the table. Yet, its unranked Tulsa which is currently a slight favorite. Once again, I feel that there is good reason for this and the unranked team will be the one which emerges victorious. Give the Cardinals credit for having a great season. However, the schedule wasn't exactly difficult, as Indiana was the toughest non-conference opponent. Still, the Cardinals went 12-1 and that's impressive no matter what the schedule is like. The only problem is that the lone loss came in their last game, an upset to Buffalo in the MAC Championship game. While it can go both ways, in my experience, more often that not can be very difficult for previously undefeated teams to bounce back from a late season loss, particularly if it came in their final game. Don't believe me? Just ask Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide! Making matters much worse, the Cardinals will have to try and "bounce back" against a very tough opponent and without their coach on the sideline. That's because Brady Hoke (MAC Coach of the Year) has moved on to San Diego State. While Stan Parrish will surely enjoy success here, dealing with the team's first loss while also dealing with the coaching change may be hard on the players. As Ball State Athletic Director Tom Collins noted: "Change is always difficult, and even more so for young adults..."The Cardinals score plenty of points, finishing with an impressive 36.6 points per game during the regular season. The Golden Hurricane score even more than that though - a lot more. In fact, Tulsa averaged a whopping 47.4 points and 565.1 total yards per game, stats which were second to only Oklahoma. I expect the Golden Hurricanes to be the more focused team tonight and for them to keep piling on enough points to earn a convincing victory. *Blowout GOM

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

Larry Ness

Predicted Winner: Memphis

Break up the Minnesota T-wolves. Minnesota had lost 13 straight between Nov 29 and Dec 23 but the T-wolves have won FOUR of their last six, including two straight. Think that's NOT a big deal? Well consider this. Minnesota last won three in a row back in 2007 (Jan 12-15) and since then, has won back-to-back games eight different times, including wins over Golden State at home (Fri) and at Chicago (Sat). The team has failed to get that third straight wins in each of the last seven tries and will again try for that elusive third straight win tonight, for the first time this season. Standing in the way are the Grizzlies, who are 11-23 overall, including 9-10 at home (10-8-1 ATS). The T-wolves just beat the Grizzlies, 108-98 (OT) in Minnesota on Dec 29 but winning on the road is not something that the T-wolves do too often. They were 7-34 on the road last year and the team's Saturday win at Chicago gave them only a 4-13 road mark TY. Minnesota is 10-7 ATS away from home but it will be tough to 'cover' here, without winning SU. Al Jefferson (22.8-10.4) is having another All-Star caliber season for Minnesota but the talent surrounding him leaves much to be desired. Randy Foye (a former Villanova star) is coming around (14.7-3.5-4.8) but other than ex-Memphis player Mike Miller (10.2-5.9-3.5), who has been hurt on-and-off TY, the T-wolves have more questions than answers. Gomes (10.8-4.2) and Smith (8.8-3.4) seemed to have "maxed-out" their talent and McCants (9.9) looks to be no better than a journeyman guard in this league. Then there is Kevin Love (of UCLA), who McHale was "so in love with," that he made a draft-day trade with the Grizzlies to acquire Love, for OJ Mayo (more on him in second). Love has averaged 18.5 PPG and 10.0 RPG in his last two games but in his previous 10, had scored more than seven points just one time. He had two points or less five times in that stretch, averaging a paltry 3.9 PPG over the 10-game stretch, even though he had 17 points in one of those games. He's averaging 8.8 PPG and 7.9 RPG on the season and one wonders just what McHale was thinking? OJ Mayo (19.7-4.1-3.0) is the NBA's highest-scoring rookie and he's likely just "scratched the surface" of his talents. Rudy Gay (19.1-5.4) is proving to be a 'budding' star and joins fellow frontcourt players Warrick (11.6-4.9) plus Marc Gasol (11.3-7.0), giving the Grizzlies a very good group of forwards (they could sure use a "true" center, however). PGs Conley (7.9-3.1 APG) and Lowry (7.5-4.1 APG) show promise and I believe there is way more 'upside' with the Memphis franchise than there is in Minnesota. Marc Iavaroni's team is coming off its most lopsided win of the season on Sunday, beating Dallas 102-82. The Mavs had entered that game with an 18-5 mark since Nov 15 and that "confidence-builder" plus a little "revenge motive" from an OT loss at Minnesota on Dec 29, should be all the Grizzlies need to come out on top of the T-wolves in this one. Las Vegas Insider on the Mem Grizzlies.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

Ness
Las Vegas Insider - NBA

Break up the Minnesota T-wolves. Minnesota had lost 13 straight between Nov 29 and Dec 23 but the T-wolves have won FOUR of their last six, including two straight. Think that's NOT a big deal? Well consider this. Minnesota last won three in a row back in 2007 (Jan 12-15) and since then, has won back-to-back games eight different times, including wins over Golden State at home (Fri) and at Chicago (Sat). The team has failed to get that third straight wins in each of the last seven tries and will again try for that elusive third straight win tonight, for the first time this season. Standing in the way are the Grizzlies, who are 11-23 overall, including 9-10 at home (10-8-1 ATS). The T-wolves just beat the Grizzlies, 108-98 (OT) in Minnesota on Dec 29 but winning on the road is not something that the T-wolves do too often. They were 7-34 on the road last year and the team's Saturday win at Chicago gave them only a 4-13 road mark TY. Minnesota is 10-7 ATS away from home but it will be tough to 'cover' here, without winning SU. Al Jefferson (22.8-10.4) is having another All-Star caliber season for Minnesota but the talent surrounding him leaves much to be desired. Randy Foye (a former Villanova star) is coming around (14.7-3.5-4. but other than ex-Memphis player Mike Miller (10.2-5.9-3.5), who has been hurt on-and-off TY, the T-wolves have more questions than answers. Gomes (10.8-4.2) and Smith (8.8-3.4) seemed to have "maxed-out" their talent and McCants (9.9) looks to be no better than a journeyman guard in this league. Then there is Kevin Love (of UCLA), who McHale was "so in love with," that he made a draft-day trade with the Grizzlies to acquire Love, for OJ Mayo (more on him in second). Love has averaged 18.5 PPG and 10.0 RPG in his last two games but in his previous 10, had scored more than seven points just one time. He had two points or less five times in that stretch, averaging a paltry 3.9 PPG over the 10-game stretch, even though he had 17 points in one of those games. He's averaging 8.8 PPG and 7.9 RPG on the season and one wonders just what McHale was thinking? OJ Mayo (19.7-4.1-3.0) is the NBA's highest-scoring rookie and he's likely just "scratched the surface" of his talents. Rudy Gay (19.1-5.4) is proving to be a 'budding' star and joins fellow frontcourt players Warrick (11.6-4.9) plus Marc Gasol (11.3-7.0), giving the Grizzlies a very good group of forwards (they could sure use a "true" center, however). PGs Conley (7.9-3.1 APG) and Lowry (7.5-4.1 APG) show promise and I believe there is way more 'upside' with the Memphis franchise than there is in Minnesota. Marc Iavaroni's team is coming off its most lopsided win of the season on Sunday, beating Dallas 102-82. The Mavs had entered that game with an 18-5 mark since Nov 15 and that "confidence-builder" plus a little "revenge motive" from an OT loss at Minnesota on Dec 29, should be all the Grizzlies need to come out on top of the T-wolves in this one.

Las Vegas Insider on the Mem Grizzlies

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

DR Bob

I’ll consider Ball State a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d make Ball State a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more at -1.15 odds or better. My math model predicts 73 total points, which is close to the total, so I have no opinion on the over/under.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

Root

Chairman- Seton Hall
Millionaire- Tulsa
Insiders Circle- U Conn

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

Dr. Bob

Tuesday NBA Opinions/Possible Best Bets
ORLANDO (-12 ½) over Washington
Washington is an improved team since Mike James was acquired and became the starting pointguard 10 games ago, but my ratings still favor the Magic by 12 points in this game, so the line is pretty fair, and the Magic are 31-10 ATS after a loss under coach Stan Van Gundy. Orlando has also been good as a big home favorite under Van Gundy, who has a habit of beating up on bad teams. But, there is usually some line value on the side of the Magic when they’re a big favorite since they don’t letdown like most big favorites do, but that is not the case tonight since Washington is a bit underrated with their current lineup. I’ll just lean with Orlando at -13 or -12 ½ points, but I’d take Orlando in a 2-Star Best Bet at -12 points or less.

Boston (-9 ½) over CHARLOTTE
Boston has been struggling a bit on the road lately, including an 88-100 loss at New York on Sunday, but the Celtics tend to respond after an upset loss (11-4 ATS since last season) and they are 37-17-2 ATS in regular season games against losing teams since last season (8-1 ATS after an upset loss). Boston also applies to a very strong 51-12-2 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation tonight, but the line is a bit too high. Charlotte is an improved team since their trade with the Suns in mid-December, as Boris Diaw is a major upgrade at small forward. Raja Bell, also acquired in that deal, has missed the last 3 games, but his absence is a non-factor because it allows an effective D.J. Augustin to get more playing time. My ratings favor Boston by only 8 ½ points in this game and the negative line value at a line of -9 ½ will keep this from being a Best Bet despite the strong situation. I’ll lean with Boston at -10 or -9 ½ and I’d take Boston in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less.

Tuesday College Opinion
Northern Iowa (+12 ½) over CREIGHTON
Northern Iowa dialed up their defensive intensity in the last two games and won at Southern Illinois 59-51 as a 7 point dog and then won 78-54 as a 3 point favorite against Wichita State. Winning at Creighton will not be so easy, but the Panthers have a good chance to keep this game competitive, especially if they continue to play good defense. Northern Iowa applies to a 51-14-1 ATS subset of a 178-98-7 ATS big road underdog momentum situation, but my ratings favor Creighton by 13 ½ points and I’m not willing to give up the line value to make this game a Best Bet. I’ll lean with Northern Iowa at +12 or more based on the strong situation and their 10-4 ATS mark as a conference road underdog under coach Ben Jacobson.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

PPP- 4%Tulsa (CFB)