Thursday 10-11-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 78

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 REALLY FAST DASH 7/2

# 7 ZOOMING FOR STOLI 15/1

# 8 NO KEY NEEDED 10/1

I like REALLY FAST DASH here. With a decent 67 speed rating last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this race. Overall the Equibase Speed Figs of this racer look competitive in this affair. This filly has a strong win percent in short races. ZOOMING FOR STOLI - Bettors using horses with this rider and trainer duo have done well as of late. Has to be given consideration - I like the figs from the last contest.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fresno
Fresno - Race 2

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $2 Daily Double / $1 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) $0.20 GOLD RUSH Pick 6 (Races 2-7)


Claiming $16,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 93 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 1:45P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. ONE SUCH RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 1 LB. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING, AND STARTER RACES FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CAMANO COMET is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CAMANO COMET: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in Track Master Power Rating. BUTTIE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. QUEEN OF TEQUILA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest average Equi base Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FAST BID (IRE): Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
4
CAMANO COMET
3/1

7/2
1
BUTTIE
4/1

6/1
3
QUEEN OF TEQUILA
9/5

6/1
5
FAST BID (IRE)
5/2

7/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
4
CAMANO COMET
4

3/1
Front-runner
84

95

85.2

83.8

76.3
5
FAST BID (IRE)
5

5/2
Alternator/Stalker
91

85

80.0

82.0

78.0
1
BUTTIE
1

4/1
Alternator/Stalker
94

88

66.8

85.8

81.3
3
QUEEN OF TEQUILA
3

9/5
Trailer
94

87

82.0

90.0

85.0
2
ANGELINA'S HEAVEN
2

5/1
Trailer
86

80

52.6

73.0

64.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park West

10/11/18, GPW, Race 6, 3.59 ET
1M [Turf] 1.33.00 CLAIMING. Purse $31,000.
Claiming Price $30,000, if for $25,000, allowed 1 lb. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE ON THE TURF SINCE APRIL 11 OR THREE YEAR OLDS
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $.50 Bet 3 (Races 6-7-8) / $1 Super Hi 5
Best in race - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
Top Horse Win Percent 33.33, $1 ROI 1.20, For Race Category Non-Maiden Turf
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer FLAGS
100.0000 12 Dancin in the Heat 8-1 Jaramillo E Baxter Georgina TW
098.6138 3 Areyoutalkingtome 8-1 Reyes L Arriagada Juan
098.2890 9 Seven Gems 6-1 Zayas E J Klesaris Steve
098.0200 6 Blue Harbor 3-1 Sanchez J Fawkes David
097.3669 4 Strike Midnight 4-1 Batista J A Belsoeur Yvon S
097.3110 2 Don't Over Look 6-1 Lopez P Fawkes David
096.6589 1 Global Entry 5-1 Jaramillo E Gracida Ruben
096.4014 8 Bold Daddy 12-1 Panici L Croft Barry N. EL
095.8892 5 Love Conquers 10-1 Vasquez M A Spatz Ronald B.
095.8083 10 Big Boy Bruno 10-1 Lopez P Walder Peter R. FC
095.2443 7 Diamond Bachelor(b+) 12-1 Maragh R R Biancone Patrick L.
092.1462 11 General Paddy 15-1 Alvarado. Jr. R Perez Raul N.
If Race Is Off Turf
Top Horse Win Percent 19.05, $1 ROI 0.47, For Race Category Non-Maiden Dirt
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer FLAGS
100.0000 3 Areyoutalkingtome 8-1 Reyes L Arriagada Juan
099.7995 4 Strike Midnight 4-1 Batista J A Belsoeur Yvon S
099.6728 9 Seven Gems 6-1 Zayas E J Klesaris Steve W
099.4768 12 Dancin in the Heat 8-1 Jaramillo E Baxter Georgina T
099.3207 2 Don't Over Look 6-1 Lopez P Fawkes David F
099.0555 10 Big Boy Bruno 10-1 Lopez P Walder Peter R. C
098.8089 1 Global Entry 5-1 Jaramillo E Gracida Ruben
098.7146 6 Blue Harbor 3-1 Sanchez J Fawkes David
095.7506 7 Diamond Bachelor(b+) 12-1 Maragh R R Biancone Patrick L.
095.1755 5 Love Conquers 10-1 Vasquez M A Spatz Ronald B.
094.8923 8 Bold Daddy 12-1 Panici L Croft Barry N. EL
093.9720 11 General Paddy 15-1 Alvarado. Jr. R Perez Raul N.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #7 - Post: 5:58pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 MY DARLING SOFIA (ML=8/1)
#8 CHURCH ROAD (ML=5/2)
#10 LU SEA (ML=20/1)
#7 BIT MONEY (ML=6/1)


MY DARLING SOFIA - The September 15th affair at Arlington was at a class level of (93). Dropping down in class ranks considerably, so she should be in a good position to win. A campaigner coming back this promptly after a solid effort is a good sign. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a comeback. Horse didn't hit the board in last race, but did beat half the field, and made up ground down the lane. A slight improvement and this horse should be right there at the wire. CHURCH ROAD - The ROI when Emigh and Manley get together is tremendous. This mare is uppermost in earnings per race entered. Give the once over to this horse before the race. LU SEA - Ran last out against tougher competition at Arlington. The move down in the class scale should suit her well. Rodriguez has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to watch out for the longer priced half. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a return to racing. Lets try to beat the chalks with this mare. Just missed last out, but ran a pretty good race. BIT MONEY - The jockey and handler combination have a beneficial return on investment when they partner up.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 SHE'S TAKEN (ML=9/2), #6 VENUS SERENA (ML=5/1),

SHE'S TAKEN - Hasn't been getting close at all recently. Not probable for this entrant to make an impact with no recent success in a sprint event. VENUS SERENA - A bit of a lackluster effort when this filly finished eighth.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#1 MY DARLING SOFIA is going to be the play if we are getting 5/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,8,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Prairie Meadows
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $13500 Class Rating: 90

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED IN 2018 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 ONCE OR CLAIMING PRICE $30,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 127 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 11, 2018 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 SAMMY JAMES 8/5

# 4 MAKIT SNAPPI 5/1

# 6 EOS WING MAN 9/2

My selection in this race is SAMMY JAMES. Will more than likely be one of the early speedsters of the pack going into the halfway point of the affair. He has been running solidly lately while recording very strong speed figures. Has a strong shot in this contest if you like back class. MAKIT SNAPPI - Garcia will most likely be able to get this filly to break out sharply in this event. Ran a very strong last race. EOS WING MAN - Must be given a shot - I like the figures from the last competition. Risk takers should probably take a good look at this one as this gelding has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park
Remington Park - Race 4

Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) (.50 Cent Minimum) / Sooner 6ix (Races 4-9) (.20 Cent)


Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $13,324 • Post: 8:31P
FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 11, 2018 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * TIZ BRONCO BILLY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. AGGIEVILLE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LITTLE FRANK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. COUNTRY CLUB DINER: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. SHUT THE GATE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
9
TIZ BRONCO BILLY
3/1

5/1
8
AGGIEVILLE
20/1

6/1
3
LITTLE FRANK
10/1

8/1
6
COUNTRY CLUB DINER
5/2

8/1
4
SHUT THE GATE
20/1

9/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
8
AGGIEVILLE
8

20/1
Front-runner
84

74

77.7

64.8

57.3
10
IDONT KNOW HISNAME
10

9/2
Front-runner
75

67

63.0

61.2

47.2
9
TIZ BRONCO BILLY
9

3/1
Stalker
85

76

62.8

64.6

61.6
3
LITTLE FRANK
3

10/1
Stalker
86

76

56.5

67.4

57.9
6
COUNTRY CLUB DINER
6

5/2
Alternator/Stalker
82

67

44.0

64.2

55.7
4
SHUT THE GATE
4

20/1
Alternator/Stalker
76

80

38.3

65.0

55.5
1
LOOK AT IT
1

30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
88

82

71.3

52.6

43.6
2
TRUEST OF STARS
2

10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
70

63

60.5

60.8

48.8
7
SWEETTALKNCANDYMAN
7

4/1
Alternator/Non-contender
75

61

54.0

57.4

40.4
5
SNOWCONE BOB
5

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
78

70

28.7

53.8

38.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB Championship Series Prices:

NLCS

Dodgers -150
Brewers +130

ALCS

Astros -120
Red Sox Even

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NLCS Cheat Sheet
Kevin Rogers

2018 Head-to-Head Matchups (Dodgers 4-3, Over 4-3)

Dodgers vs. Brewers (Miller Park)
July 20 – Dodgers 6, Brewers 4 (Over 9)
July 21 – Brewers 4, Dodgers 2 (Under 8)
July 22 – Dodgers 11, Brewers 2 (Over 8 ½)

Brewers vs. Dodgers (Dodger Stadium)
July 30 – Brewers 5, Dodgers 2 (Under 7 ½)
July 31 – Brewers 1, Dodgers 0 (Under 8 ½)
August 1 – Dodgers 6, Brewers 4 (Over 8)
August 2 – Dodgers 21, Brewers 5 (Over 7 ½)

HOW THEY GOT HERE

The Brewers (96-67) are the hottest team in baseball entering the League Championship Series. Milwaukee has won 11 consecutive games, which includes the divisional tiebreaker victory at Wrigley Field over the Cubs. The Brewers locked up not only the NL Central title, but secured the all-important home-field advantage throughout the National League playoffs.

Milwaukee quickly disposed of Colorado in a three-game sweep in the NLDS to advance to its first Championship Series since 2011. For the exception of a ninth-inning rally to score two runs in Game 1, Colorado’s offense was shut down by the Milwaukee pitching staff in this series. The Rockies tallied a total of two runs in 28 innings, while getting blanked in the final two games. All three games finished UNDER the total, as none of Milwaukee’s starting pitchers allowed a run.

The Dodgers (92-71) also needed a victory in a division title contest as they routed the Rockies to pick up their sixth consecutive NL West championship. Los Angeles ran a tight race alongside Colorado and Arizona for the top spot in the West all season long until the Dodgers pulled away in the final five weeks. After the Cardinals swept the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine in late August, Los Angeles sat at 67-61. The Dodgers went 24-10 in the final 34 regular season games to clinch a playoff spot, while going 15-4 in the past 19 home contests.

Los Angeles needed four games to finish off an upstart Atlanta squad in the NLDS. The Dodgers blanked the Braves in each of the first two games, but couldn’t pull off the sweep as Los Angeles fell to Atlanta, 6-5 in Game 3 at SunTrust Park. L.A. rallied past Atlanta, 6-2 in Game 4 to advance to its third consecutive National League Championship Series.

SEASON SERIES

In seven meetings this season, the Dodgers captured four victories, including two wins at Miller Park in July. Los Angeles held off Milwaukee in the opener, 6-4, highlighted by two hits from Manny Machado in his Dodgers’ debut after getting traded from Baltimore. The Brewers won the second contest as nearly a +160 underdog against Clayton Kershaw as Milwaukee erased an early 2-0 deficit to pick up a 4-2 triumph. The Dodgers grabbed the rubber match in blowout fashion, 11-2, as Los Angeles allowed two early runs before it put together a pair of five-run innings for the series victory.

When the teams met in southern California over a week later, the Brewers rebounded with a pair of wins, while limiting the Dodgers to two runs in those victories. Eric Thames knocked out a three-run homer in the series opening 5-2 win, while Wade Miley tossed seven scoreless innings in a 2-0 triumph in Game 2. The Dodgers broke through in Game 3 on a Yasmani Grandal walk-off homer in the 10th inning, 6-4 followed up by a 21-5 rout of Milwaukee in the finale to grab the series split.

PLAYOFF HISTORY

The Dodgers and Brewers have never met in the playoffs, as Milwaukee has played in the National League since 1998. Los Angeles is seeking back-to-back National League pennants for the first time since 1977-78, while losing in four of its past five NLCS appearances dating back to 2008. Milwaukee last reached the NLCS in 2011 as the Brewers fell in six games to the Cardinals, while the Brew Crew is looking for their first World Series appearance since 1982.

PITCHERS TO WATCH

Obviously the most decorated pitcher in this series is Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw (9-5, 2.73 ERA), who silenced the Braves’ bats in Game 2 of the NLDS. Kershaw tossed eight scoreless innings and scattered two hits in a 3-0 shutout as the Dodgers have won each of the left-hander’s last nine starts. Los Angeles owns a 5-0 mark in each of Kershaw’s last five home playoff starts, but the road is a different story for the three-time Cy Young winner. Kershaw has allowed 11 earned runs in his past two road playoff outings, while the Dodgers are 0-2 in those affairs.

Jhoulys Chacin (15-8, 3.56 ERA) picked up a career-high in victories in his first season in Milwaukee. Chacin was an integral part of lifting the Brewers to the NL Central title by allowing one hit and one run in 5.2 innings of the division championship win over the Cubs. The right-hander followed that performance up by yielding three hits in five scoreless innings of a 4-0 triumph over Colorado in Game 2 of the NLDS. However, Chacin was lit up by the Dodgers in the 16-run defeat in August as he was tagged for nine runs in 4.1 innings opposite Kershaw.

Southpaw Wade Miley (5-2, 2.57 ERA) is unbeaten in his past eight starts for Milwaukee, while having the Dodgers’ number in two starts. In 13 innings against Los Angeles, Miley allowed six hits and one run, as the Brewers split those two games. Miley finished one out from a victory against Colorado in Game 3 of the NLDS as he tossed 4.2 scoreless innings in the 6-0 rout as +145 underdogs in the series clincher.

SERIES SCHEDULE (All games on FOX/FS1)

Game 1 – Friday, October 12 – at Milwaukee
Game 2 – Saturday, October 13 - at Milwaukee
Game 3 – Monday, October 15 - at Los Angeles
Game 4 – Tuesday, October 16 - at Los Angeles
*Game 5 – Wednesday, October 17 - at Los Angeles
*Game 6 – Friday, October 19 - at Milwaukee
*Game 7 – Saturday, October 20 - at Milwaukee

* - If Necessary

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Dunkel

Thursday, October 11


Vegas @ Pittsburgh

Game 1-2
October 11, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Vegas
10.301
Pittsburgh
11.763
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
N/A

Columbus @ Florida

Game 3-4
October 11, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Columbus
11.053
Florida
12.073
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida
-130
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Florida
(-130); Under

Colorado @ Buffalo

Game 5-6
October 11, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
8.696
Buffalo
12.350
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 3 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
-115
6
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-105); Under

Washington @ New Jersey

Game 7-8
October 11, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
13.796
New Jersey
11.135
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 2 1/2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
N/A

San Jose @ NY Rangers

Game 9-10
October 11, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Jose
10.251
NY Rangers
11.612
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Rangers
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Jose
-175
6
Dunkel Pick:
NY Rangers
(+155); Over

Edmonton @ Boston

Game 11-12
October 11, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Edmonton
12.257
Boston
9.106
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Edmonton
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-165
6
Dunkel Pick:
Edmonton
(+145); Over

Vancouver @ Tampa Bay

Game 13-14
October 11, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Vancouver
10.983
Tampa Bay
12.611
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
3
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-270
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-270); Under

Toronto @ Detroit

Game 15-16
October 11, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
10.137
Detroit
11.639
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-170
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+150); Under

Los Angeles @ Montreal

Game 17-18
October 11, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
12.365
Montreal
10.297
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles
by 2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Montreal
-130
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
(+110); Over

Winnipeg @ Nashville

Game 19-20
October 11, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
9.751
Nashville
13.200
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Nashville
by 3 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nashville
-135
6
Dunkel Pick:
Nashville
(-135); Under

Calgary @ St. Louis

Game 21-22
October 11, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Calgary
12.713
St. Louis
9.364
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Calgary
by 3 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Calgary
N/A

Chicago @ Minnesota

Game 23-24
October 11, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
9.389
Minnesota
10.707
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
-155
6
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-155); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Thursday, October 11

Trend Report

Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Edmonton is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 6 games
Edmonton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Edmonton is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
Edmonton is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Boston
Edmonton is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games when playing Boston
Edmonton is 3-9-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston Bruins
Boston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Boston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Boston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton
Boston is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games when playing Edmonton
Boston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Edmonton


Colorado Avalanche
Colorado is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 6 games
Colorado is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Colorado is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games on the road
Colorado is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Colorado is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Colorado's last 13 games when playing Buffalo
Colorado is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 9 games
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Colorado
Buffalo is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Buffalo's last 13 games when playing Colorado
Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing at home against Colorado


Columbus Blue Jackets
Columbus is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Columbus is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Columbus's last 15 games
Columbus is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Columbus is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Columbus's last 14 games on the road
Columbus is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Columbus's last 10 games when playing Florida
Columbus is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Columbus's last 9 games when playing on the road against Florida
Florida Panthers
Florida is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 6 games
Florida is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Columbus
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Florida's last 10 games when playing Columbus
Florida is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Columbus
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Florida's last 9 games when playing at home against Columbus


Washington Capitals
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Washington is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New Jersey
Washington is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing New Jersey
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing New Jersey
Washington is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
New Jersey Devils
New Jersey is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
New Jersey is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Jersey's last 7 games
New Jersey is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington
New Jersey is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Jersey's last 7 games when playing Washington
New Jersey is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington


San Jose Sharks
San Jose is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
San Jose is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
San Jose is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Jose's last 6 games on the road
San Jose is 5-10-1 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against NY Rangers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Jose's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Rangers
New York Rangers
NY Rangers is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Rangers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Rangers's last 5 games
NY Rangers is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Jose
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Rangers's last 5 games when playing at home against San Jose


Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Vegas is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Vegas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vegas's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games


Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Toronto is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Toronto's last 17 games when playing Detroit
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 9 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit Red Wings
Detroit is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Detroit is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Detroit's last 17 games when playing Toronto
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing at home against Toronto


Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Los Angeles is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 7 games
Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 5 games on the road
Los Angeles is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Montreal
Los Angeles is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Montreal Canadiens
Montreal is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Montreal is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games
Montreal is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
Montreal is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Los Angeles


Vancouver Canucks
Vancouver is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Vancouver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Vancouver's last 7 games
Vancouver is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Vancouver is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Vancouver's last 12 games on the road
Vancouver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Vancouver is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Vancouver's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Vancouver's last 11 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Vancouver
Tampa Bay is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Vancouver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Vancouver
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 11 games when playing at home against Vancouver
Boston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton


Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games
Chicago is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 19 of Chicago's last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Chicago


Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Winnipeg is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Winnipeg is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Winnipeg is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing Nashville
Winnipeg is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Nashville
Winnipeg is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Winnipeg's last 9 games when playing on the road against Nashville
Nashville Predators
Nashville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Nashville is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Nashville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Nashville's last 11 games at home
Nashville is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nashville's last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
Nashville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
Nashville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Nashville's last 9 games when playing at home against Winnipeg


Calgary Flames
Calgary is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Calgary is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games
Calgary is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games
Calgary is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Calgary is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Calgary is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis Blues
St. Louis is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
St. Louis is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 8 games
St. Louis is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
St. Louis is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Calgary

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Patriots get home-field advantage plus hook in NFL Week 6 odds vs. unbeaten Chiefs
Patrick Everson

Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes are two key reasons why Kansas City is 5-0 SU and ATS this season. But the Chiefs opened as 3.5-point underdogs for a Week 6 showdown at New England.

Week 6 of the NFL season features a prime-time Sunday night clash between two of the AFC’s best outfits. We check in on the opening lines and early action for that game and three others, with insights from Derek Wilkinson, sportsbook supervisor at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3.5)

Kansas City is the only unbeaten team in the AFC and one of just two perfect squads through five weeks. The Chiefs (5-0 SU and ATS) expected to have a tough test against Jacksonville in Week 5, but got out to a 23-0 lead and coasted to a 30-14 win as a 3-point home favorite.

New England had an off-kilter first three weeks, but followed with a pair of very New England-looking victories. The Patriots (3-2 SU and ATS) dropped Indianapolis 38-24 as a 10.5-point home chalk Thursday, the second straight week the squad put up 38 points.

“Both teams look good right now, but New England looked like it was supposed to last week,” Wilkinson said. “We’re anticipating that line to go to -4 in a day or two.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)

Cincinnati is surprisingly all alone atop the AFC North at 4-1 SU and ATS. The Bengals found themselves in a 17-0 hole six minutes into the third quarter against Miami, but rallied for a 27-17 Week 5 victory laying 6.5 points at home.

After a less-than-inspiring first month, Pittsburgh finally found some firm footing in Week 5. The Steelers (2-2-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) outscored Atlanta 28-7 in the second half to claim a 41-17 home win as a 3.5-point fave.

“We favored Cincinnati at home by less than a field goal, and I think that number could be lower by game time,” Wilkinson said. “The Bengals are playing well, but historically, the Steelers own them. I could see this line being closer to a pick by Sunday.”
Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos (+7)

Los Angeles is the best the NFC has to offer right now, joining Kansas City with a perfect record. The Rams (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) got a stiff road test at Seattle in Week 5, but came away with a 33-31 victory giving 7.5 points.

Denver won its first two games, but has since dropped three in a row and is the only team in the league that has yet to cash this season. In Week 5, the Broncos (2-3 SU, 0-4-1 ATS) went off as 1-point road pups at the New York Jets and got rolled 34-16.

“You never know what’s going to happen in an NFL game, but the Rams are a far better team,” Wilkinson said. “I think the public will be all over the Rams -7, but the sharps will stay away from the game altogether. I think this line is going to stay -7, even though we’ll have a ton of money on L.A.”

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+3)

Philadelphia isn’t looking much like the defending Super Bowl champion at this point, and now is working on a short week ahead of this Thursday night contest. The Eagles (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) were 3.5-point home faves against Minnesota in Week 5, but never led in a 23-21 setback.

New York is now getting to the point where it’s desperate for wins, after letting one slip away on Sunday. The Giants (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) got a touchdown with 1:08 remaining in the fourth quarter to take a 31-30 lead at Carolina, but gave up a massive 63-yard final-second field goal in a 33-31 loss catching 7 points.

“This line was difficult because I think Philly is more than a field goal better than the Giants,” Wilkinson said. “However, they’re divisional rivals playing in New York, so we stayed fairly low for now. I’m not sure where this line is going yet, but my guess would be that the public likes Philly.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot & Not Report

Week of October 8th

Well, that trend of teams going 'over' the total when coming off a TNF home game continued this week with the Rams 33-31 win in Seattle. That's a perfect 4-0 O/U so far in 2018 and this week we've already got the perfect candidate for a popular 'over' play there as the New England Patriots host the Kansas City Chiefs. If that's a trend you are looking to follow, it's probably best to get your play in sooner rather than later this week.

Regarding last week's streaks, the Sun Belt East Division teams ended up finishing the week with a 1-0-2 against the spread (ATS) mark as Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State were off, while Troy and Georgia State played one another. That 1-0-2 ATS mark is the best possible outcome for the Sun Belt East last week, so even when they play one another they aren't a bad ATS bet...

Over in the MAC East games, backing the 'over' once again proved to be the way to go as only the Ohio/Kent State divisional matchup was able to cash an 'under' ticket in any of the four games played involving teams from that division. You'd have to believe that a run like that should eventually dry up, but we might have to wait until the weather takes a turn before MAC East 'under' bets can be considered.

This week it's back to the NFL as there are a few things I want to touch on there.

Who's Hot

Tight games involving the Cleveland Browns – All five Cleveland games have been decided by 4 points or less

We may be nearly 40 years removed from the 1980 Cleveland Browns known as the “Kardiac Kids” in Cleveland, but the 2018 Cleveland Browns are definitely young and definitely know how to make games close the entire time. Cleveland is looking at a 4-1 ATS record vs the closing numbers this year, but that one ATS loss could be graded as a push or even win as their number was +3 or higher for the bulk of the week prior to playing Oakland.

After all last season stories coming out about the “sharps” backing Cleveland each week and usually paying the oddsmaker, it's looking like those bettors were just a year early in their support for the Browns, as this team has been competitive every week and been paying off their backers basically every time. To have the first five games decided by no more than four points every time is quite remarkable, but may be even more remarkable is the fact that Cleveland's first SU win in nearly two years came when they won and covered as a small favorite with that four-point margin. All those years of bad luck appear to be reversing themselves every week for Cleveland in 2018.

This week the Browns and their ATS run are going to be put to the test as they are in the pick'em/+1 range hosting the L.A Chargers. It's an early body clock game for L.A there and that does favor the Browns, but the oddsmakers look like they want to really test the support of Browns backers here. There will be no more Browns SU losses/ties and paying out spread tickets this week. At this number it's Browns win the game or not.

It's too early in the week to really know which way I want to lean there, but if what we've seen from Cleveland already this year, chances are it will be a one-possession game regardless. Teasers anyone?

Who's Not

NFL Road Favorites – 0-4 ATS in Week 5, 2-9 ATS last three weeks

Betting road favorites in the NFL can tend to be a tricky proposition in general, but these past few weeks it's just been a bankroll burner. On Sunday we saw four teams that close as road favorites (Denver, Baltimore, Tennessee, L.A Rams) go 0-4 ATS, and you can even throw Green Bay into that mix as well as they were -1.5 on the road all the way until Sunday when the line flipped and Detroit was finally laying a point at home. Only one of those teams – Rams – actually won the game outright, as these home underdogs are ones you definitely want to look at right now.

Not only was Week 5 bad ATS-wise for road favorites, but Week 4's 2-2 ATS record for road chalk only got two wins because of Houston's OT gift, and Kansas City's 4th quarter comeback to beat Denver and win by the hook (vs closing line). With a 0-3 ATS record in Week 3 for road chalk, the last spot any NFL team wants to be in right now is expected to win on the road.

So what does that mean for Week 6?

Well, the week starts off with the Philadelphia Eagles laying a FG on TNF against the Giants. TNF has already been a rough spot for road teams this year (0-4-1 ATS), and now you've got the poor road favorite role attached to the Eagles as well. Not the greatest spot for the defending champs to say the least.

After that, there are currently six other road favorites on the Week 6 betting board. We've got Seattle (-3) in Oakland, Chicago (-3) in Miami, L.A Chargers (-1) in Cleveland, L.A Rams (-7) in Denver, Jacksonville (-3) in Dallas, and Baltimore (-3) in Tennessee. All six of those squads probably won't fail to cover their respective spreads, but I know I wouldn't be that confident in my card if a good majority end up on my betting board.

That's not to say you should avoid these teams or look to blindly bet the other way, just tread carefully with these teams in that road chalk role, because it's really only added money into the oddsmakers pockets this year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

Thursday. October 11

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (2 - 3) at NY GIANTS (1 - 4) - 10/11/2018, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 6

Trend Report

Thursday. October 11

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games when playing NY Giants
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
New York Giants
NY Giants is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Giants's last 12 games
NY Giants is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
NY Giants is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games at home
NY Giants is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Philadelphia
NY Giants is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
NY Giants is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
NY Giants is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6

Thursday, October 11

Philadelphia @ NY Giants

Game 103-104
October 11, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
133.894
NY Giants
126.672
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 7
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-3); Over