Friday 10-12-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 7

Trend Report

Friday, October 12

South Florida @ Tulsa
South Florida
South Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
South Florida is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road

Tulsa
Tulsa is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
Tulsa is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

Air Force @ San Diego State
Air Force
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Air Force's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Air Force's last 7 games on the road

San Diego State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego State's last 5 games when playing at home against Air Force
San Diego State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Arizona @ Utah
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road

Utah
Utah is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Utah is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 7

Friday, October 12

South Florida @ Tulsa

Game 109-110
October 12, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
South Florida
83.525
Tulsa
79.356
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
South Florida
by 4
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
South Florida
by 7 1/2
61 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tulsa
(+7 1/2); Over

Arizona @ Utah

Game 111-112
October 12, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
91.377
Utah
95.627
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 4 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 13 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+13 1/2); Under

Air Force @ San Diego St

Game 113-114
October 12, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Air Force
84.133
San Diego St
93.028
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego St
by 9
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego St
by 11 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Air Force
(+11 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 7


Friday’s games
South Florida is 5-0 this season, despite giving up 38 points to Ga Tech, 42 to UMass; Bulls ran ball for 365 yards LW, after East Carolina outgained them by 116 yards in a 20-13 win. USF won its last two games with Tulsa, 27-20/38-30, with last visit here in ’14; under Strong, Bulls are 2-4 as road favorites. Tulsa is 0-4 vs I-A teams, 2-2 vs spread; all four games stayed under total. Under Montgomery, Golden Hurricane is 1-6 as home underdogs; they’re -6 in turnovers vs I-A teams, giving up 192+ rushing yards in all four games.

Arizona won five of last six games with Utah, but they lost 36-23 in last visit here in ’16. Dogs are 4-3 vs spread in last seven series games. Arizona is 2-3 vs I-A teams; all five games stayed under total; since ’13, Wildcats are 3-14 vs spread as road underdogs- they’re 3-7 in last ten games as a double digit dog. Khalil Tate hasn’t progressed much as a passer, which hurts. Utah lost two of last three games but pulled upset at Stanford LW; Utes allowed 826 PY in last two games. Since Utah is 9-13 vs spread when laying double digits.

Air Force ended 3-game skid by thumping rival Navy 35-7 LW; they allowed 827 PY in their first two road games- Navy can’t pass. San Diego State won its last seven games with Air Force, winning 30-14/28-9 in last two series games played here. Falcons are 0-2 on road, losing 33-27/42-32; they covered eight of last 11 games as road underdogs. Aztecs pulled a big upset in Boise LW; they’re 7-12 vs spread in last 19 games as home favorites. No one has run for more than 119 yards vs San Diego State this year- can Air Force move it enough to cover here?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 7
Bruce Marshall

Friday, Oct. 12


SOUTH FLORIDA at TULSA...USF 4-7 vs. points last ten since late 2017. Bulls 2-5 vs. line last seven laying points away from Tampa in reg. season. Tulsa however just 1-7 last 8 as home dog.
Slight to South Florida, based on team trends.


ARIZONA at UTAH...Utes 5-1 as home chalk since last season. Home team has won and covered last three in series. Cats on 3-7-1 spread skid since late 2017, also 2-10 last 12 as visiting dog. Sumlin teams are 4-9-2 last 15 as dog.
Utah, based on team and series trends.


AIR FORCE at SAN DIEGO STATE...Calhoun 15-6-1 last 22 as dog since 2014. Though Aztecs have covered 6 of last 7 in series. Rocky Long, however, just 2-8 last 10 as home chalk.
Slight to San Diego State, based on series trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arizona at Utah
Brian Edwards

Matchup: Arizona at Utah
Venue: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, Utah
TV/Time: ESPN, 10:00 p.m. ET

In multiple columns, guest radio spots and on my Games Galore podcast throughout the summer, I spoke at length about how Arizona’s Kevin Sumlin and Mississippi State’s Joe Moorhead were walking into the best new coaching gigs in terms of being able to win right away. Well, here we are in mid-October, and Moorhead’s fresh off a huge win over Auburn to avoid as three-game losing streak.

As for Sumlin, his Arizona team (3-3 straight up, 3-3 against the spread) is a double-digit road underdog at Utah on Friday night. The Wildcats have quite a few games remaining in which they’ll be underdogs and it appears they’ll be fortunate just to go bowling.

As of early Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Utah (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) installed as a 13.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 50.5. UA was available on the money line for a +415 return (risk $100 to win $415).

Utah is off its best performance of the season, going to The Farm in Palo Alto and dominating Stanford in a 40-21 victory as a four-point road underdog. The 61 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 45-point total in the Utes’ highest-scoring game of the season.

The game turned on Jaylon Johnson’s 100-yard pick-six early in the second quarter that gave Kyle Whittingham’s squad a 14-0 advantage. Zach Moss, who had a seven-yard TD run to allow Utah to draw first blood late in the opening quarter, ripped off a 35-yard TD run to put Utah ahead 21-0 late in the second quarter.

Trailing 27-7 midway through the third quarter, Stanford scored back-to-back touchdowns to trim the deficit to 27-21 with more than 16 minutes remaining. Matt Gay’s 34-yard field goal put Utah back into a two-possession advantage. Then with 7:12 left, QB Tyler Huntley found Samson Nauca on a 57-yard scoring strike. Gay’s 37-yard FG put the game on ice with 3:34 remaining.

Utah played turnover-free football and forced four Stanford turnovers. Huntley completed 17-of-21 passes for 199 yards and one TD without an interception. Moss had 160 rushing yards and two TDs on 20 attempts, while Nacua had a pair of catches for 70 yards and one TD. Britain Covey had six catches for 70 yards.

The win at Stanford allowed Utah to avoid a three-game losing streak and remain alive in the Pac-12 South with a 1-2 league record. The Utes started the season with a 41-10 home win over Weber State before winning 17-6 at No. Illinois. However, they lost 21-7 vs. Washington as four-point home underdogs before dropping a 28-24 decision as 1.5-point road favorites at Washington State.

Moss and Huntley are the catalyst for the Utah offense. Moss has rushed for 549 yards and six TD while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. He also has five receptions for 30 yards and one TD. Huntley has connected on 62.4 percent of his throws for 994 yards with a 5/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has rushed for 143 yards and a pair of scores.

Covey is Huntley’s favorite target, hauling in 32 receptions for 328 yards. Nacua has caught 13 balls for 146 yards and one TD.

Utah is 26-23-1 ATS as a home favorite dating back to the start of the 2008 campaign. We should also note the Utes’ outstanding special-teams players. Gay, the junior kicker, was a first-team All-American and the Lou Groza Award winner in 2017. Senior punter Mitch Wishnowsky was a second-team All-American last year, but he was a first-team All-American choice in ’16 when he won the Ray Guy Award. Wishnowsky is averaging 44.0 yards per punt this year.

Utah is ranked 10th in the nation in total defense, third at defending the run and 18th in scoring ‘D,’ giving up an average of 17.2 PPG.

Senior LB Chase Hansen is the leader of the Utes’ stop unit. He has produced 43 tackles, seven tackles for loss, three sacks, one QB hurry and one interception that went for a 40-yard pick six to put the No. Illinois game away.

Sumlin’s tenure started with back-to-back losses both SU and ATS, including a 28-23 loss to BYU as an 11.5-point home favorite. In Week 2, Arizona was trounced 45-18 at Houston as a 3.5-point road underdog. The Wildcats would bounce back to win 62-31 vs. Southern Utah and 35-14 at Oregon State.

Since then, Arizona lost a 24-20 decision to USC as a 3.5-point home underdog and then beat California 24-17 last week as a two-point home underdog. Sumlin’s bunch was extremely fortunate to beat the Golden Bears, who enjoyed a 25-13 advantage in first downs and a 476-265 edge in total offense.

So, how the hell did Arizona find a way to win? Well, it needs to hand out a no-look assist with some behind-the-back mustard on it to former South Carolina QB Brandon McIlwain, who threw three interceptions. Two of those were of the pick-six variety in the second half.

Trailing 10-0, McIlwain put Cal-Berkeley in front 14-10 at intermission on TD runs of 25 and 23 yards in the second quarter. However, with 3:19 left in the third quarter, UA’s Azizi Hearn intercepted McIlwain and went 34 yards to the house to put the Wildcats ahead 17-14.

Then with 3:13 remaining, Arizona’s Scottie Young produced a 24-yard pick-six. Cal added a 35-yard FG with 16 ticks left to provide the final score. In addition to the 14 points it scored, the UA defense also had a fumble recovery and a pair of stops on fourth-down plays.

Arizona junior QB Khalil Tate was nothing short of sensational last season, averaging 9.2 YPC while rushing for 1,411 yards and 12 TDs despite not getting steady playing time until October. To say Tate’s production has slipped this year would be quite the understatement.

Tate has run for just 110 yards and two TDs with a 2.5 YPC average. He has completed 54.0 percent of his passes for 1,412 yards with an 11/4 TD-INT ratio. RB J.J. Taylor leads the Wildcats with 600 rushing yards and three TDs with a 5.8 YPC average. Gary Brightwell has run for 308 yards and two TDs while averaging 5.6 YPC.

Tate mostly looks to three different targets. Shawn Pointdexter has 21 receptions for 407 yards and two TDs, while Shun Brown has 27 catches for 342 yards and three TDs. Tony Ellison has 17 grabs for 311 yards and three TDs.

Arizona is ranked 99th out of 130 FBS teams in total defense. The Wildcats are 103rd at defending the run and 70th in scoring ‘D,’ giving up 26.5 PPG.

Since 2013, Arizona has limped to an abysmal 4-14 spread record in 18 games as a road underdog.

The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for the Utes, 1-1 in their home games. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 43.0 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 5-1 for Arizona, 2-0 in its road assignments. The Wildcats saw their lone ‘over’ appearance in the blowout win over FCS foe, Southern Utah. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 56.8 PPG.

From 2012-15, Arizona won four games in a row over Utah both SU and ATS. Since then, however, Utah has won back-to-back games over the Wildcats both SU and ATS. The Utes won 36-23 as 9.5-point home favorites in 2016.

When this rivalry was resumed in Tucson last year, Utah won a 30-24 decision as a 4.5-point road underdog. This was before Tate was inserted into the lineup ahead of former QB Brandon Dawkins, who threw for 248 yards and ran for 90 but was intercepted three times. Huntley completed 8-of-9 passes for 98 yards and one TD without an interception. Moss rushed for 73 yards on 14 attempts.

Kickoff for Friday’s Pac-12 South showdown is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--There are two other televised games on Friday’s card. Tulsa will play host to unbeaten South Florida at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN, and San Diego State will take on Air Force as a double-digit home favorite at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports College Network.

--USF (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) was listed as a seven-point favorite at Tulsa as of early Thursday afternoon. The Bulls are 1-1 ATS in a pair of road situations, winning 25-19 at Illinois as 14-point ‘chalk’ and capturing a 58-42 triumph at UMass as 15.5-point favorites last week. USF is 2-4 ATS in six games as a road favorite since Charlie Strong took over in 2017. Tulsa beat Central Arkansas by a 38-27 count in its opener, but it has lost four games in a row since then. The Golden Hurricane hasn’t been getting blown out and has covered as a double-digit underdog twice, including a 28-21 loss at Texas as a 22.5-point ‘dog.

--San Diego State is still playing without starting QB Christian Chapman and star RB Juwan Washington. Nevertheless, Rocky Long’s club has won four consecutive games since losing 31-10 at Stanford in its season opener. The Aztecs beat Arizona State 28-21 as five-point home underdogs and then went to the smurf turf and knocked off Boise State. 19-13 as 13.5-point road underdogs last week. As of early Thursday afternoon, most spots had San Diego State listed as 11-point home favorites with a total of 43.5 or 44. Air Force (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) ended a three-game losing streak last week by blasting Navy 35-7 as a 2.5-point home underdog. The Falcons, who have seen the ‘under’ go 4-1, are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS in a pair of road outings. They lost 33-27 at FAU but covered as eight-point ‘dogs, but they failed to cover by the hook in a 42-32 loss at Utah State as 9.5-point puppies.

--Boston College star RB missed last week’s 28-23 loss at N.C. State nursing a sprained ankle. Nevertheless, the Eagles took the cash as 6.5-point underdogs in Raleigh. BC is 4-2 both SU and ATS and as of Thursday afternoon, the Eagles were 13.5-point home favorites for a 12:30 Eastern kick vs. Louisville on Saturday. Dillon remains ‘questionable’ and will likely be a game-time decision versus the Cardinals, who are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS and can’t afford to fire Bobby Petrino even if they desperately desired to do so. Dillon has rushed for 652 yards and six TDs while averaging 6.2 YPC.

--BYU has named true freshman QB Zach Wilson as its starter vs. Hawaii. Wilson has appeared in only two games this year in relief of Tanner Mangum. He completed 3-of-4 throws for 52 yards and one TD without an interception in mop-up duty during last week’s 45-20 home loss to Utah State. As for the Warriors, they went to great lengths to keep star QB Cole McDonald’s foot injury under wraps last week. In fact, Nick Rolovich sent another player out in McDonald’s jersey (with his name on it, obviously) to warm up prior to last week’s 17-13 home win over Wyoming. McDonald didn’t play but is listed as ‘probable’ this week (however, I’m not implying gamblers should trust that status). McDonald has been nothing short of sensational, throwing for 2,100 yards with an incredible 24/2 TD-INT ratio. As of early Thursday afternoon, the Cougars were installed as 11.5-point home favorites.

--Toledo QB Mitchell Guadagni (head) is ‘questionable’ at Eastern Michigan. Guadagni has 745 passing yards and a 10/1 TD-INT ratio. The Rockets have seen the ‘over’ go 5-0 this year. They’re one or 1.5-point road favorites with a total of 63.5. Since winning outright at Purdue on a walk-off FG in Week 2, EMU has lost four consecutive one-possession games in a row. The Eagles, who are 4-2 ATS, lost 23-20 at San Diego State in overtime in Week 4. Next, they dropped a 26-23 decision to No. Illinois in triple overtime. EMU rallied for a backdoor cover with a last-minute TD in last week’s 27-24 loss at Western Michigan as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Eagles have seen the ‘under’ hit in three straight outings.

--Iowa State owns a 6-3-1 spread record in 10 games as a home underdog during Matt Campbell’s three-year tenure. The Cyclones, who are off a 48-42 upset win at Oklahoma State as 10-point underdogs, were listed as 6.5-point home ‘dogs to West Virginia as of early Thursday afternoon. Campbell has named Brock Purdy as his starting QB this week with Kyle Kempt (‘doubtful’) not quite ready to return from the knee injury sustained in the team’s opener. ISU has an open date after hosting WVU. Purdy, a true freshman who had only appeared in one game and not yet attempted a pass before being inserted into the lineup last week in Stillwater, torched the Cowboys by completing 18-of-23 passes for 318 yards and four TD with only one interception. He also rushed for a team-best 84 yards and one TD on 19 carries. However, the Cyclones might be without star RB David Montgomery, who is ‘questionable’ against the Mountaineers due to an upper-body injury.

--Disgraced former Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze has been hired as the new offensive coordinator for the Arizona Hotshots of the new Alliance of American Football league that starts this spring. Freeze will work under Arizona head coach Rick Neuheisel, who is the former head coach at UCLA, Washington and Colorado.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 18
David Schwab

The extended Week 17 schedule due to Canada’s Thanksgiving holiday started with Winnipeg’s thrilling 40-32 victory over Ottawa in overtime on Friday night. The action shifted to British Columbia on Saturday night and the Lions squeezed out a 26-23 win against Toronto as a seven-point favorite.

Monday’s holiday doubleheader started with Calgary grinding out a 12-6 road win against Montreal as a heavy 13 ½-point favorite. Saskatchewan remained the hottest team in the CFL right now with a 19-12 victory over Edmonton as a 3 ½-point favorite at home.

Friday, Oct. 12

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (7-7 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (3-11 SU, 6-8 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -7
Total: 52 ½

Game Overview

Ottawa’s loss combined with a Week 16 bye has the Tiger-Cats a game back in the East Division title race. They have already beaten Toronto once in a 42-28 romp on Sept. 3 as nine-point home favorites. The total went OVER 51 points in that game and it has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in their last five outings. Hamilton is averaging 29.1 points per game as the third-highest scoring team in the CFL.

The Argonauts’ extended straight-up losing streak reached six games and it was just the second time they covered against the spread during this slide. The total stayed UNDER the closing 52-point line against the Lions after going OVER in their previous four games. Toronto is 3-1 ATS in its last four home games with the total going OVER in four of its last five games played at home.

Betting Trends

-- Hamilton has a 7-2 edge ATS in its last nine road games against the Argonauts and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings in Toronto.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 18

Friday, October 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HAMILTON (7 - 7) at TORONTO (3 - 11) - 10/12/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAMILTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 22-44 ATS (-26.4 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 since 1996.
TORONTO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 20-37 ATS (-20.7 Units) in home games in October games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 5-3 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 5-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 18

Trend Report

Friday, October 12

Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Hamilton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games
Hamilton is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games on the road
Hamilton is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Toronto
Hamilton is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Hamilton's last 8 games when playing Toronto
Hamilton is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto

Toronto Argonauts
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games at home
Toronto is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Hamilton
Toronto is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Hamilton
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 8 games when playing Hamilton
Toronto is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Hamilton
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Hamilton

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Dunkel

Week 18


Friday, October 12

Hamilton @ Toronto

Game 661-662
October 12, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Hamilton
112.473
Toronto
109.825
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Hamilton
by 2 1/2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Hamilton
by 7 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(+7 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 18


Hamilton (7-7) (-7.5, 52.5) @ Toronto (3-11)— TiCats already beat Toronto twice this year, 42-28/36-25; Hamilton won six of last nine series games- teams split last four games played here. Last three series games went over the total. TiCats won four of last six games, split last four on road; they’re 22 as road favorites— four of their last five games went over. Argonauts lost their last six games (2-4 vs spread); they allowed 30+ points in four of last five. Toronto is 4-3 as a home underdog- over is 7-3 in their last ten games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NLCS Cheat Sheet
Kevin Rogers

2018 Head-to-Head Matchups (Dodgers 4-3, Over 4-3)

Dodgers vs. Brewers (Miller Park)
July 20 – Dodgers 6, Brewers 4 (Over 9)
July 21 – Brewers 4, Dodgers 2 (Under 8)
July 22 – Dodgers 11, Brewers 2 (Over 8 ½)

Brewers vs. Dodgers (Dodger Stadium)
July 30 – Brewers 5, Dodgers 2 (Under 7 ½)
July 31 – Brewers 1, Dodgers 0 (Under 8 ½)
August 1 – Dodgers 6, Brewers 4 (Over 8)
August 2 – Dodgers 21, Brewers 5 (Over 7 ½)

HOW THEY GOT HERE

The Brewers (96-67) are the hottest team in baseball entering the League Championship Series. Milwaukee has won 11 consecutive games, which includes the divisional tiebreaker victory at Wrigley Field over the Cubs. The Brewers locked up not only the NL Central title, but secured the all-important home-field advantage throughout the National League playoffs.

Milwaukee quickly disposed of Colorado in a three-game sweep in the NLDS to advance to its first Championship Series since 2011. For the exception of a ninth-inning rally to score two runs in Game 1, Colorado’s offense was shut down by the Milwaukee pitching staff in this series. The Rockies tallied a total of two runs in 28 innings, while getting blanked in the final two games. All three games finished UNDER the total, as none of Milwaukee’s starting pitchers allowed a run.

The Dodgers (92-71) also needed a victory in a division title contest as they routed the Rockies to pick up their sixth consecutive NL West championship. Los Angeles ran a tight race alongside Colorado and Arizona for the top spot in the West all season long until the Dodgers pulled away in the final five weeks. After the Cardinals swept the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine in late August, Los Angeles sat at 67-61. The Dodgers went 24-10 in the final 34 regular season games to clinch a playoff spot, while going 15-4 in the past 19 home contests.

Los Angeles needed four games to finish off an upstart Atlanta squad in the NLDS. The Dodgers blanked the Braves in each of the first two games, but couldn’t pull off the sweep as Los Angeles fell to Atlanta, 6-5 in Game 3 at SunTrust Park. L.A. rallied past Atlanta, 6-2 in Game 4 to advance to its third consecutive National League Championship Series.

SEASON SERIES

In seven meetings this season, the Dodgers captured four victories, including two wins at Miller Park in July. Los Angeles held off Milwaukee in the opener, 6-4, highlighted by two hits from Manny Machado in his Dodgers’ debut after getting traded from Baltimore. The Brewers won the second contest as nearly a +160 underdog against Clayton Kershaw as Milwaukee erased an early 2-0 deficit to pick up a 4-2 triumph. The Dodgers grabbed the rubber match in blowout fashion, 11-2, as Los Angeles allowed two early runs before it put together a pair of five-run innings for the series victory.

When the teams met in southern California over a week later, the Brewers rebounded with a pair of wins, while limiting the Dodgers to two runs in those victories. Eric Thames knocked out a three-run homer in the series opening 5-2 win, while Wade Miley tossed seven scoreless innings in a 2-0 triumph in Game 2. The Dodgers broke through in Game 3 on a Yasmani Grandal walk-off homer in the 10th inning, 6-4 followed up by a 21-5 rout of Milwaukee in the finale to grab the series split.

PLAYOFF HISTORY

The Dodgers and Brewers have never met in the playoffs, as Milwaukee has played in the National League since 1998. Los Angeles is seeking back-to-back National League pennants for the first time since 1977-78, while losing in four of its past five NLCS appearances dating back to 2008. Milwaukee last reached the NLCS in 2011 as the Brewers fell in six games to the Cardinals, while the Brew Crew is looking for their first World Series appearance since 1982.

PITCHERS TO WATCH

Obviously the most decorated pitcher in this series is Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw (9-5, 2.73 ERA), who silenced the Braves’ bats in Game 2 of the NLDS. Kershaw tossed eight scoreless innings and scattered two hits in a 3-0 shutout as the Dodgers have won each of the left-hander’s last nine starts. Los Angeles owns a 5-0 mark in each of Kershaw’s last five home playoff starts, but the road is a different story for the three-time Cy Young winner. Kershaw has allowed 11 earned runs in his past two road playoff outings, while the Dodgers are 0-2 in those affairs.

Jhoulys Chacin (15-8, 3.56 ERA) picked up a career-high in victories in his first season in Milwaukee. Chacin was an integral part of lifting the Brewers to the NL Central title by allowing one hit and one run in 5.2 innings of the division championship win over the Cubs. The right-hander followed that performance up by yielding three hits in five scoreless innings of a 4-0 triumph over Colorado in Game 2 of the NLDS. However, Chacin was lit up by the Dodgers in the 16-run defeat in August as he was tagged for nine runs in 4.1 innings opposite Kershaw.

Southpaw Wade Miley (5-2, 2.57 ERA) is unbeaten in his past eight starts for Milwaukee, while having the Dodgers’ number in two starts. In 13 innings against Los Angeles, Miley allowed six hits and one run, as the Brewers split those two games. Miley finished one out from a victory against Colorado in Game 3 of the NLDS as he tossed 4.2 scoreless innings in the 6-0 rout as +145 underdogs in the series clincher.

SERIES SCHEDULE (All games on FOX/FS1)

Game 1 – Friday, October 12 – at Milwaukee
Game 2 – Saturday, October 13 - at Milwaukee
Game 3 – Monday, October 15 - at Los Angeles
Game 4 – Tuesday, October 16 - at Los Angeles
*Game 5 – Wednesday, October 17 - at Los Angeles
*Game 6 – Friday, October 19 - at Milwaukee
*Game 7 – Saturday, October 20 - at Milwaukee

* - If Necessary

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALCS Cheat Sheet
Kevin Rogers

2018 Head-to-Head Matchups (Astros 4-3, Over 5-2)

Red Sox vs. Astros (Minute Maid Park)
May 31 – Astros 4, Red Sox 2 (Under 8 ½)
June 1 – Astros 7, Red Sox 3 (Over 7)
June 2 – Red Sox 5, Astros 4 (Over 7 ½)
June 3 – Red Sox 9, Astros 3 (Over 7 ½)

Astros vs. Red Sox (Fenway Park)
September 7 – Astros 6, Red Sox 3 (Over 8 ½)
September 8 – Astros 5, Red Sox 3 (Under 9)
September 9 – Red Sox 6, Astros 5 (Over 8 ½)

HOW THEY GOT HERE

The Red Sox (108-54) won the most games in franchise history this season as they reached the ALCS for the first time since 2013 after knocking out the Yankees in four games of the ALDS. Boston split the first two games against New York at Fenway Park, but rebounded for a pair of victories in the Bronx, capped off by Tuesday’s Game 4 clincher, 4-3.

Boston won 93 games each of the last two seasons on its way to the AL East title, but in Alex Cora’s first season as manager, the Red Sox jumped to 108 victories, its most since winning 104 games in 1946. The difference this season is the Red Sox were able to escape the ALDS unscathed after losing to Cleveland in 2016 and Houston in 2017.

In those two series losses to the Indians and Astros, the Red Sox posted an 0-4 road record. Boston put together a 51-30 mark away from Fenway this season, which ranked second in the league behind Houston’s 57-24 road ledger. The Red Sox are on a 4-1 road underdog run since late September, which includes three wins over the Yankees and a victory at Cleveland.

The Astros (103-59) are back in the ALCS for the second consecutive season as Houston seeks back-to-back World Series titles. Houston closed the regular season on a 28-9 run to capture the AL West title, while finishing off Cleveland in a three-game sweep in the ALDS.

Houston’s pitching staff stifled the Cleveland bats by allowing six runs in the three games, while pulling away in the Game 3 clincher by scoring 10 runs in the final three innings of an 11-3 rout at Progressive Field. The Astros knocked out eight home runs in the series sweep, including a pair of jacks from outfielder George Springer in the Game 3 rout.

SEASON SERIES

The Astros grabbed four of seven meetings from the Red Sox, as Houston won the first two matchups in each series. In the first series at Minute Maid Park in June, Houston captured the opener, 4-2 thanks to a pair of fourth inning runs to break a 2-2 tie. The two teams combined for five homers in the second game with aces Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale on the mound, but the Astros pulled away for a 7-3 victory.

The Red Sox rebounded in the next two games to grab a split as Andrew Benintendi and Christian Vasquez each went deep in the seventh inning of a 5-4 win in Game 3. Boston destroyed Houston in the series finale, 9-3 as the Red Sox handed Charlie Morton his first loss of the season by tagging the Astros’ right-hander for six runs in 5.1 innings of work.

In the following series at Fenway Park in September, the Astros rallied from a 2-0 deficit to score six late runs in a 6-3 victory in the opener. Morton rebounded in his second opportunity against the Red Sox by allowing two runs in five innings of a 5-3 victory in Game 2, while Alex Bregman drilled his 30th homer of the season. The Red Sox avoided the sweep with a 6-5 walk-off victory in the series finale on Mitch Moreland’s RBI single, while J.D. Martinez drove in four runs for Boston.

PLAYOFF HISTORY

Houston and Boston are meeting in the playoffs for the second straight season as the Astros eliminated the Red Sox in four games of the ALDS in 2017. The Astros wacked the Red Sox in back-to-back 8-2 blowouts at Minute Maid Park to jump out to a commanding 2-0 lead, highlighted by racking Sale in the series opener for seven runs in five innings.

The Red Sox avoided elimination in Game 3 by erasing an early 3-0 deficit to score 10 unanswered runs in a 10-3 rout at Fenway Park. Game 4 was certainly quirky as both teams turned to their aces out of the bullpen as Justin Verlander tossed 2.2 innings and Sale lasted 4.2 innings in relief. However, Houston knocked out Boston by scoring three late runs in a 5-4 win as short road favorites.

PITCHERS TO WATCH

There is no shortage of aces to go around for these two teams. Verlander (16-9, 2.52 ERA) is unbeaten in his last six starts, while shutting down the Indians in Game 1 of the ALDS by scattering two hits in 5.1 innings of work. Verlander faced the Red Sox once this season as the Astros lost as -200 favorites, 5-4 on June 2. The former MVP and Cy Young winner did his part by allowing three hits and two earned runs in six innings, but the Red Sox scored three runs in the seventh inning for the win. The Astros have won five of Verlander’s six playoff starts since he was acquired last season, but the only loss came on the road to the Dodgers in the World Series.

Cole (15-5, 2.88 ERA) hasn’t lost a decision since August 10 against Seattle, while the Astros are 7-0 in his past seven outings. The former Pirates’ standout struck out 12 in a Game 2 victory over Cleveland in the ALDS, while picking up his first postseason win since 2013 against the Cardinals. Cole will start Game 2 at Fenway Park as the Astros posted a 7-3 record and 2.77 ERA away from Minute Maid Park this season. The Astros won each of Cole’s starts against the Red Sox in 2018, as the right-hander allowed five earned runs in 13 innings of work.

The Red Sox send out Sale (12-4, 2.11 ERA) in the series opener as the Cy Young candidate hasn’t pitched past the sixth inning since July 27. Sale spent a month on the disabled list with a shoulder injury, but returned in September to four no-decisions (3-1 team record). The southpaw picked up a Game 1 ALDS win against the Yankees by tossing 5.1 innings of five-hit ball and striking out eight in a 5-4 victory. The Red Sox won nine of Sale’s 13 home starts this season, although the four losses came as a favorite of -230 or higher.

David Price (16-7, 3.58 ERA) has been postseason poison in his career as his teams are 0-7 in his past seven playoff starts dating back to 2013. Price didn’t escape the second inning in the Game 2 ALDS loss to the Yankees, as the southpaw is set to start Game 2 against the Astros. However, Price was dominant against this Houston lineup in two starts this season by giving up five runs and seven hits, while striking out 17 in 12.1 innings of work.

SERIES SCHEDULE (All games on TBS)

Game 1 – Saturday, October 13 – at Boston
Game 2 – Sunday, October 14 – at Boston
Game 3 – Tuesday, October 16 – at Houston
Game 4 – Wednesday, October 17 – at Houston
*Game 5 – Thursday, October 18 – at Houston
*Game 6 – Saturday, October 20 – at Boston
*Game 7 – Sunday, October 21 – at Boston

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Friday, October 12

LA Dodgers @ Milwaukee

Game 901-902
October 12, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 17.810
Milwaukee
(Gonzalez) 20.021
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-160
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(+140); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, October 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA DODGERS (95 - 72) at MILWAUKEE (99 - 67) - 8:05 PM
CLAYTON KERSHAW (L) vs. GIO GONZALEZ (L)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 95-72 (-20.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 66-54 (-19.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 99-67 (+27.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 53-30 (+15.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 20-8 (+12.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season.
MILWAUKEE is 68-35 (+31.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 72-55 (+24.6 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 100-82 (+15.6 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 47-34 (+15.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 25-14 (+14.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
KERSHAW is 41-11 (+21.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GONZALEZ is 7-15 (-13.6 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 3-4 (+0.4 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
KERSHAW is 6-5 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 2.86 and a WHIP of 1.018.
His team's record is 8-6 (-2.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-7. (-2.4 units)

GIO GONZALEZ vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
GONZALEZ is 4-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.34 and a WHIP of 1.016.
His team's record is 5-2 (+3.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-3. (+0.7 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (106 - 59) at BOSTON (111 - 55) - 8:05 PM
JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. CHRIS SALE (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 275-313 (-72.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday since 1997.
BOSTON is 111-55 (+34.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 88-39 (+32.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BOSTON is 75-35 (+23.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BOSTON is 42-29 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 58-24 (+25.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 37-14 (+19.1 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
HOUSTON is 24-6 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in road games against left-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 42-15 (+22.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
HOUSTON is 38-16 (+18.2 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 49-28 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 240-240 (-64.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 3-4 (+0.4 Units) against HOUSTON this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.9 Units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. BOSTON since 1997
VERLANDER is 6-6 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 2.79 and a WHIP of 1.103.
His team's record is 9-11 (-4.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-10. (-3.6 units)

CHRIS SALE vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SALE is 5-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.75 and a WHIP of 0.864.
His team's record is 5-3 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-4. (-0.4 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA DODGERS (95 - 72) at MILWAUKEE (99 - 67) - 4:05 PM
WALKER BUEHLER (R) vs. WADE MILEY (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 3-4 (+0.4 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)

WALKER BUEHLER vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
BUEHLER is 0-1 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.714.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

WADE MILEY vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
MILEY is 4-5 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.39 and a WHIP of 1.312.
His team's record is 6-8 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-8. (-2.8 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Friday, October 12

National League
Dodgers @ Brewers
Kershaw is 4-0, 3.79 in his last six starts; his last three road starts went over. Team in his starts: 17-10, 9-4 road (won his last nine starts) He is 1-1, 4.50 vs Milwaukee this season.
5-inning record: 16-7-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 4-27

Gonzalez is 3-0, 2.49 in his last five starts; Brewers won his last five starts. Over is 7-3 in his last ten starts. Team in his starts: 5-0, 4-0 home
5-inning record: 5-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-5

Dodgers won seven of their last eight games overall, four of last five on road. LA is in playoffs for 6th year in row; they lost 7th game of World Series LY. Dodgers’ last WS title was in 1988.

Milwaukee won its last 11 games; their last loss was Sept 22. Brewers won their last six home games- they’re in playoffs for first time since 2011- they lost Game 7 of the 1982 World Series.