Sunday 10-14-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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FOURNETTE OUT AGAIN

Reports on Monday stated that Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette is out again for Week 6 at Dallas. He also missed Sunday’s loss at Kansas City after re-injuring his hamstring in Week 4. With Fournette out, T.J. Yeldon ran the ball 10 times for 53 yards, with the rushing attempts lower than the Jaguars would have wanted as they played from behind all afternoon.

This week, the Jags travel to Dallas on Sunday to face a Cowboys defense that is ranked 11th against the run, giving up 95.8 rushing yards per game. In Week 5, the Cowboys gave up 88 rushing yards but only 46 of those came from a running back in Alfred Blue. In fact, Blue rushed 20 times for those 46 yards for a terrible average of 2.3 yards per attempt. It could be tough sledding for Yeldon at Dallas on Sunday so we’re taking the Under on his rushing total.

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BREIDA DOUBTFUL

In keeping with an unfortunate trend of injured running backs, it appears as if San Francisco’s Matt Breida won’t play in Week 6 with coach Kyle Shanahan calling him doubtful with an ankle sprain. Breida left yesterday’s game in the second quarter, leaving the 49ers’ backfield work to Alfred Morris and Kyle Juszczyk, with Morris getting the early-down runs and Juszczyk working the passing downs.

San Francisco travels to Green Bay on Monday Night Football in Week 6 and you can guarantee that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are going to be looking to put a big number on the board after being somewhat humiliated in Detroit on Sunday. The Niners will try to establish Morris early in the game but don’t be surprised to see them get behind quickly and turn to the pass, which would then expand Juszczyk’s role. Juszczyk had a break-out game with six catches for 75 yards on Sunday and we’ll be looking for him to go Over his receptions total once again on Monday night in a game where the Niners are likely to be chasing points.

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COLLINS NEEDS MORE SNAPS

Baltimore’s best running back is Alex Collins yet for some reason he only played on 31 percent of snaps in Sunday’s loss to Cleveland, while Buck Allen received 57 percent of the snaps. Coach John Harbaugh didn’t seem to regret it, simply telling reporters on Monday that “we need to spread the load” and that “a fresh running back in a good thing.”

Ultimately, Harbaugh is going to reflect on Sunday and notice two things: First, he lost to the Browns, and second, Buck Allen is a plodder who is averaging 2.8 yards per carry. Collins ran for 60 yards on just 12 carries on Sunday for a respectable 4.9 yards per carry. He is the more talented back and we’re hoping a loss to the Browns will help Harbaugh realize that. We’re going to take the Over on his rushing total in Week 6 at Tennessee.

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WATSON IS BACK

It appears as if Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is back. After a slow start to the season in the Week 1 loss at New England, Watson has now posted four straight games with 300-plus passing yards, including 375, 375, and 385 in his last three. Watson has found his rhythm and it has helped that the Texans have a struggling running game. Lamar Miller (chest) dressed but didn’t play in Week 5; he should be able to go in Week 6. This shouldn’t make much of a difference, however, as Miller has only run for 59 total yards in his last two games. On Sunday, the Texans play host to a Bills defense that has allowed passing totals of 298 and 296 in its last two road games. We’re liking the Texans to keep airing it out in Week 6 and for Watson to go Over his passing yards total.

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Tech Trends - Week 6
Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Oct. 14

ARIZONA at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Big Red 2-5 last seven as road dog. Cards “under” 8 of last 10 since late 2017. Vikes “under” five straight in reg season at US Bank.
Tech Edge: -“Under” and Vikings, based on “totals” and team trends.


L.A. CHARGERS at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Last game Browns won before this season was Dec. 2016 at home vs. Bolts. Brownies 4-1 vs. line in 2018. Chargers “over” 4-1 in 2018.
Tech Edge: Browns and “over," based on “totals” and team trends.


CHICAGO at MIAMI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears 5-1 last six vs. line. If Dolphins a dog, however, note 6-2-1 spread mark last 9 in role at home.
Tech Edge: Bears, based on team trends.


CAROLINA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
If Panthers a dog note 7-3 mark last ten in role. Skins 4-1 last five vs. spread at Fed Ex. After last Monday vs. Saints, Jay Gruden “over” 27-14 since late 2015 as well.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


INDIANAPOLIS at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Colts 3-1 vs. line last four away. Jets 3-5-1 last nine vs. line since late 2017.
Tech Edge: Colts, based on recent trends.


PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bengals have lost five in a row SU at Paul Brown vs. Steel, no covers last four of those in reg season as well . Steel now "over” 8-3-1 last 12 since late 2017, while Bengals “over” 5-1 last six.
Tech Edge: Steelers and "over," based on series and “totals” trends.


TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs 4-2 vs. line last six meetings, and “over” five in a row since late 2017. Falcs “over” last 4 in 2018.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


SEATTLE vs. OAKLAND at Wembley Stadium, London (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Hawks 4-9-2 vs. line last 15 away from CenturyLink Field. Hawks also “under” 8-3 last 11 away from home. Raiders “under" 10-2 last 12 since mid 2017. Oakland also 1-8-2 vs. points last ten away from home.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Seahawks, based on “totals” and trends.


BUFFALO at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills “under” 9-4 last 13 away. O’Brien 5-1-1 as home chalk as recently as 2016 but 2-4 in role since.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on "totals" trends.


L.A. RAMS at DENVER (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Vance Joseph on 2-14-1 spread skid 2017. Broncos 1-7 vs. line last eight at home. Rams 7-2 vs. line last nine away from Coliseum, also "over" last three TY.
Tech Edge: Rams and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


JACKSONVILLE at DALLAS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Home team covered first four Dallas games this season. But Cowboys were 2-5 last seven vs. spread as host in 2017. Dallas also on 12-2 “under” run since mid 2017.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals" trends.


BALTIMORE at TENNESSEE (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Flacco was 5-2-1 vs. spread away in 2017, but 0-2 in role in 2018. Ravens “over” 15-10-1 since late 2016. Titans have covered five straight in Nashville.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.


KANSAS CITY at NEW ENGLAND (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Andy Reid on 9-0 SU and spread run in reg season. Belichick however is 3-0 vs. line at home in 2018 and 11-3 vs. spread last 14 at home in reg season. Chiefs “over” 4-2 reg season since late 2017. Rematch of KC’s 42-27 surprise in opener LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

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PETERSON TO PLAY THROUGH

Washington running back Adrian Peterson couldn’t finish Monday night’s game at New Orleans after he dislocated his shoulder late in the first half but, according to Peterson, it isn’t an injury that’s going to sideline him. “It’s not going to keep me out. I came back into the game. It was just a situation where it was sore. I just popped it back in, braced it up at halftime and got back in there,” Peterson told reporters.

AP and the Redskins return home to face Carolina on Sunday and, assuming he plays, we’ll be fading him, mostly because of his risk of injuring his shoulder again — there’s a good chance that he dislocates it again after taking a hard hit early in the game. There’s also the fact that he’s going against a Panthers rush defense that just limited Saquon Barkley to 48 rushing yards on 15 attempts and is getting veteran linebacker Thomas Davis back from suspension. A 33-year-old running back at less than 100 percent against a tough run defense just adds up: Take the Under 63.5 yards on AP’s rushing total.

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JAGS SIGN CHARLES

Jacksonville signed Jamaal Charles to a one-year contract on Sunday. Yes, the same Charles who was a four-time Pro Bowler in the first half of this decade. He’ll back up T.J. Yeldon on Sunday and hopefully even steal a couple of carries, which would further strengthen yesterday’s lean of taking the Under on Yeldon’s rushing total.

Speaking of yesterday’s Yeldon lean, we’re going to add to it by suggesting bettors also take the Over on Blake Bortles’ passing yards total. We played this one last week and it easily cashed as Bortles threw for 430 yards. The Jags just don’t like to run the ball without their lead back and Bortles is averaging 38.8 passing attempts per game, dating back to last season, with Fournette out of the lineup. On Sunday, Jacksonville plays a Dallas defense that is very good against the run (5th in rush defense DVOA) and bad against the pass (24th in pass defense DVOA). Last week, Deshaun Watson cut up the Cowboys for 375 passing yards while Dallas limited Alfred Blue to 46 rushing yards on 20 attempts. Look for a similar outcome this week and back Bortles to go Over 279.5 passing yards.

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NJOKU HEATING UP

Browns fans have been waiting for second-year tight end David Njoku to start becoming an offensive force and it might finally be happening now that Baker Mayfield is under center. In his two starts, Mayfield has been looking for Njoku, targeting him seven times two weeks ago and 11 times last week and Njoku hasn’t disappointed, with games of 5-52 and 6-69. This week, the Browns host the Chargers, a team that has given up 10 receptions to opposing tight ends over the past two weeks (6 to George Kittle and 4 to Jared Cook). While those aren’t terrible defensive numbers against tight ends, we like the growing Mayfield-Njoku connection and we expect the Browns' big tight end to go Over 4.5 receptions on Sunday.

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GORDON’S TIME TO SHINE?

Last week, we backed a winner with the Under 52.5 on Josh Gordon’s receiving total, with the analysis being that he wouldn’t have time to get up to speed with the Patriots’ offense as they were on a short week. Well, this week it's the opposite and it could be the week that Josh Gordon breaks out. With the Pats coming off a mini-bye and a shootout on tap against the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, this looks like the week that Gordon could break out and really become a difference maker to the Pats offense. But here’s the best part: His receiving yards total is still set quite low at 53.5, making it the perfect time to jump on the Over.

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Games to Watch - Week 6

It was a record-setting night on Monday, with Drew Brees adding his name to the record books as his New Orleans Saints demolished the Washington Redskins. It was a great ending to what was a fabulous few days of football in the NFL, but now it’s time to look ahead to what Week 6 has to offer. There are, as always, some big games on the schedule, with a few teams already in the position of needing a win to keep their season alive.

We also have a great looking game for next Monday night that features the GOAT going against the most exciting young player in the game today. Let’s look ahead to the game to watch in Week 6 of the NFL season with all the odds, props and futures.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+150) at Atlanta Falcons (-170)

At the start of this piece, we spoke about teams needing a win to stay in the playoff hunt, and it’s fair to suggest that these two teams are in that mix. The Buccaneers saw their season get off to a fantastic start, with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick looking like a superstar for a couple of weeks. He, and the entire team, have cooled off of late, though, so expect to see Jameis Winston back under center for the 2-2 Bucs.

The Falcons have had some major injury issues to deal with, but that is only part of the reason why they are 1-4 to start the year. Given how things are going at the top of the NFC South, both od these teams really need a win here.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+115) at Cincinnati Bengals (-135)

Who can remember the last time that the Steelers took on the Cincinnati Bengals as the underdog? It’s been a while, but that is exactly what is happening here. The Bengals have looked very good through the opening 5 weeks of the season, going 4-1 to sit at the top of the AFC North. The Steelers have not looked particularly good, especially on the defensive side of the football, but they finally put it all together last Sunday, thumping the Atlanta Falcons 41-17.

If the Steelers can go on the road and get the win here, things will tighten up considerably in the division race.

Los Angeles Rams (-290) at Denver Broncos (+235)

Given the amount of money that the Rams front office invested in talent over the offseason, it became clear that is was very much Super Bowl or bust this season. That investment is paying off, at least in the early going, with the Rams running out to a perfect 5-0 record. They survived their first real scare of the weekend last Sunday, but still found a way to win on the road against the Seattle Seahawks. They are back on the road this week with a tricky trip to Denver.

Sure, the Broncos are just 2-3 on the season, but they are always tough to take out at home.

Kansas City Chiefs (+165) at New England Patriots (-190)

This is a Sunday night game worth staying up for, as this one very much looks like the game of the week. After a bit of a wobbly start, all the talk was that the Patriots NFL reign was coming to an end, but that idea has been put to bed after back to back big wins. This team is now healthy and back to full strength, so look out.

The Chiefs are one of just two unbeaten teams in the league and they have looked outstanding in getting to that point. Patrick Mahomes is deservedly getting a lot of the credit, but this looks like a solid team from top to bottom.

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NFL trends for Week 6:

— Cleveland covered five of its last six games.

— Vikings are 16-4 in last 20 games as home favorites.

— Patriots covered 12 of their last 15 games.

— Seahawks covered six of last seven pre-bye games.

— Dallas is 10-5-1 vs spread in last 16 games vs AFC teams.

— Texans are 2-8 vs spread in their last ten games.

— Pittsburgh is 3-8 vs spread in its last 11 games.

— Tennessee is 11-3-1 vs spread coming off its last 15 losses.

— New England is 17-6-3 in last 26 games as home favorites.

— Buccaneers are 8-3 vs spread in last 11 post-bye games.

— Kansas City covered its last nine games.

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Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings Preview and Predictions 10-14-2018 in NFL

NFL Previews 11th October 2018 by Gracenote
Cardinals vs. Vikings Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 10/11/2018

The Minnesota Vikings made a statement by avenging their NFC Championship Game loss last week and are bidding for their first winning streak of the season on Sunday when they host the Arizona Cardinals. The Vikings, however, would be wise not to overlook the Cardinals after being upended earlier this season by Buffalo, which also entered that contest as a double-digit underdog.

Minnesota's Kirk Cousins continues to ingratiate himself to his new team's fan base by completing at least 30 passes in his fourth straight game during last Sunday's 23-21 victory over Philadelphia. "I think that's fun for everybody on the outside, for people who follow this league to talk about, to discuss around the water cooler. But for me, I just want to do whatever it takes to win," the 30-year-old Cousins told the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Cousins completed a season-high 40 passes in a shocking 27-6 loss to the Bills on Sept. 23, a result that had many questioning if the Vikings had overlooked a foe that has struggled on offense this season. With that in mind, the Cardinals enter Sunday's game at U.S. Bank Stadium with the NFL's league-worst offense and rushing attack despite posting their first win of 2018 with a 28-18 triumph over San Francisco last week.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Vikings -10. O/U: 43

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (1-4): Josh Rosen recorded his first career win last week despite completing just 10 of 25 passes for 170 yards, with fellow rookie Christian Kirk reeling in his lone touchdown pass from 75 yards out. David Johnson posted his eighth career two-touchdown performance for Arizona, which nearly doubled its season scoring output despite being limited to just 220 total yards, 10 first downs and 49 offensive plays. Budda Baker had 16 tackles last week to increase his team-leading total to 36 while fellow safety Tre Boston notched his second interception in three weeks.



ABOUT THE VIKINGS (2-2-1): Adam Thielen leads the league in receptions (47) and third-down catches (14) while serving as the third player in NFL history with five 100-yard performances to start the season. Fellow wideout Stefon Diggs has done quite well in his own right, reeling in double-digit receptions in back-to-back contests. While the passing game is potent, Minnesota's 31st-ranked rushing attack has yet to get off the ground as Dalvin Cook has missed two of the last three contests with a hamstring injury. Latavius Murray matched season highs in attempts (11) and yards (42) last week and faces a Cardinals rush defense that has yielded an NFL-high eight touchdowns and second-worst 142.4 yards per game on the ground.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Arizona WR Larry Fitzgerald did not score a touchdown in his previous five road games against his hometown team.

2. Minnesota DE Danielle Hunter has collected a sack in each of first five contests of the season.

3. Cardinals DE Chandler Jones earned NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors after recording a sack, forced fumble and recovery versus San Francisco.

PREDICTION: Vikings 31, Cardinals 13

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Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Redskins Preview and Predictions 10-14-2018 in NFL

NFL Previews 12th October 2018 by Gracenote
Panthers vs. Redskins Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 10/12/2018

The Carolina Panthers will try to continue more than a decade of domination over the Washington Redskins when they visit the nation's capital for a showdown on Sunday. The Panthers have won five straight meetings dating to 2006, including a 26-15 victory at Washington in the most recent clash in 2016.

The Panthers are seeking a third straight overall win after Graham Gano's 63-yard field goal lifted them to a 33-31 victory over the New York Giants last week. Washington entered the week atop the NFC East standings despite an uneven start. After being carved up by Drew Brees in last week's 43-19 loss to New Orleans, Washington's defense faces another tough test against Carolina's talented offense. "It will be a great challenge for our guys," Washington coach Jay Gruden told reporters. "Our eyes have got to be in the right place and we've got to fly to the football without a doubt."

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Redskins -1. O/U: 44.5

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (3-1): The Panthers possess the league's top rushing attack, averaging 154 yards per game, and running back Christian McCaffrey leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage (130.3 per game). Cam Newton and the passing game could get a boost this week from the potential return of Pro Bowl tight end Greg Olsen, who re-injured his foot in Week 1. The defense will get back Thomas Davis from his four-game suspension to bolster a unit that has been tough against the run but has struggled a bit versus the pass.



ABOUT THE REDSKINS (2-2): Washington ranks fifth in the league in total defense and 10th in scoring defense, but things are trending in the wrong direction. After holding their first two opponents under 300 total yards, the Redskins have allowed 340 and 447 in their last two games. The offense faltered against the Saints as well, registering a season-low 283 total yards, and the passing game has not gotten going under Alex Smith, who has recorded four touchdown passes and two interceptions in his first season with the team.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Newton has registered nine passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns and no interceptions in four career games against Washington.

2. Washington has forced a turnover in eight consecutive contests dating to last season, the third-longest current streak in the league.

3. Gano has made a franchise-record 24 consecutive field goals, the longest active streak in the NFL.

PREDICTION: Panthers 27, Redskins 20

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Preview and Predictions 10-14-2018 in NFL

NFL Previews 12th October 2018 by Gracenote
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 10/12/2018

Jameis Winston will return to his starting role when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Atlanta Falcons for an NFC South showdown on Sunday. The Falcons have won three straight against their division rivals and need to make it four in a row to have any chance of salvaging their season.

Winston was suspended for the first three games of the season and came on in relief of Ryan Fitzpatrick in a 48-10 loss at Chicago in Week 4. After a bye week, he is ready to take the helm of an offense that put up huge passing numbers in the first three games. "I just think my mentality is just to go out there and win for this team," Winston told reporters. "If that's taking three-yard completions for the remainder of the game, if that's having to hit a deep shot down the field, my main focus is just winning, not really stressing about anything. I just want to put my team in a good position to win." The Falcons were in a position to win each of their first four games but have posted just one victory after being trounced 41-17 at Pittsburgh last week.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Falcons -3. O/U: 57.5

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (2-2): Tampa Bay's hot start on offense overshadowed serious concerns on defense, which have come to light in consecutive losses. The Buccaneers have given up at least 412 total yards in each of their four games and rank last in the NFL against the pass, which is problematic as they prepare to face Atlanta's dangerous receiving corps. The contest easily could turn into a shootout in which Winston will need to team up with Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson to outscore Matt Ryan and company.



ABOUT THE FALCONS (1-4): Atlanta's defense has been decimated by injuries since the preseason, and with the exception of a solid showing in Week 1, the team has struggled on that side of the ball. The offense still is quite capable, although running back Devonta Freeman's nagging foot injury has limited the rushing attack. Ryan has put up big numbers, however, and rookie Calvin Ridley has emerged to help form one of the league's most dynamic trios of receivers with Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Ridley leads the league with six touchdown receptions.

2. Evans and Jackson are among four NFL receivers with an average of at least 100 yards and a minimum of three TD catches this season.

3. Ryan has passed for 793 yards with eight touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two home games.

PREDICTION: Falcons 31, Buccaneers 30

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Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets Preview and Predictions 10-14-2018 in NFL

NFL Previews 11th October 2018 by Gracenote
Colts vs. Jets Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 10/11/2018

Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold is a member of the New York Jets thanks to a trade that allowed the franchise to move up three slots in this year's draft. The team that made that trade with the Jets -- the Indianapolis Colts -- will get their first look at Darnold on Sunday at MetLife Stadium as his Jets bid for back-to-back home wins.

The 21-year-old Darnold threw for three touchdowns in an impressive 34-16 victory over the Denver Broncos last Sunday to help New York snap a three-game slide and his steady -- if not spectacular -- start has garnered some positive attention. "One of the first observations is it looks like the real deal," Colts head coach Frank Reich told reporters of Darnold. "Love his body language. I like the energy I see from him on the field. Just looks like he belongs in that regard and all those little intangibles. It's funny. You see certain quarterbacks, they have a look and feel to them on the field. You see that in Sam." Reich also sees it in his quarterback, Andrew Luck, who has completed 78 passes for 829 yards and seven TDs over the last two weeks alone. Both efforts came in defeat, however, and Indianapolis enters Sunday hoping to avoid a four-game losing streak.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Jets -2.5. O/U: 45

ABOUT THE COLTS (1-4): Indianapolis has been off since a 38-24 loss at New England on Oct. 4, a much-needed break for a quarterback who threw the ball 121 times in a five-day span between Week 4 and Week 5, the result of slow starts that forced Luck to play catch-up. "Let's not get behind, let's play good, sound football, let's not beat ourselves in all three phases," Reich told reporters. "Let's stay in the game, don't get behind, stay patient with the runs and then have some success early with the run game that gives you the confidence to keep going back to it." Whenever Luck does go to the air Sunday, he likely won't have top receiver T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) for the second straight week while tight end Jack Doyle (hip) is expected to miss his fourth consecutive game.



ABOUT THE JETS (2-3): Isaiah Crowell ran for a franchise-record 219 yards and Robby Anderson had 123 receiving yards against the Broncos, with the latter enjoying the breakout game after a slow start that followed a tumultuous offseason. "Robby is a worker," head coach Todd Bowles told reporters of Anderson, who was targeted a career high-tying 12 times against the Colts two years ago. "He just kept his head down. He knew his time was coming. He just worked and kept his head down and tried to do all of the little things to help the team win. I was proud of him about that." Crowell missed practice Wednesday due to an ankle injury but is expected to play, while cornerbacks Trumaine Johnson (quadriceps) and Buster Skrine (concussion) are question marks.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Jets defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers is dealing with a "serious" illness and may miss his second straight game.

2. Luck was 22-of-28 for 278 yards and four TDs in a 41-10 rout of the Jets in the previous meeting in 2016.

3. Indianapolis leads the NFL in third-down conversion rate at 50.6 percent. New York ranks 25th at 36.9 percent.

PREDICTION: Colts 24, Jets 23