Service Plays Saturday 10/13/18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman


4*) Coastal Carolina -6.5

4*) Army -15

4*) Northwestern -4.5

5*) Va Tech -5.5

7*) Oregon +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sharpe

6 Unit Play Take #127 Ball State +3 over Central Michigan (3:00pm est):

Looking to once again fade this Central Michigan team. The Chippewas are a bad football team this year especially on the offensive side of the football as they lost a ton of players to graduation from last season. They have had some phony final scores this year also as they were able to comeback in a few of their games and score meaningless late touchdowns to make things look more respectable. Even their win over FCS foe Maine was very ugly as they failed to gain 200 yards in that game. CMU is a team that's going thru a major rebuild this year and I'm not sure the betting markets have caught on yet to just how far they have fallen off.

Ball State is in year number three under head coach Mike Neu and they have shown signs of breaking thru. They gave a very good Notre Dame all they could handle earlier this year on the road and just last week were only 3 point underdogs to a decent Northern Illinois squad. The Cardinals came into this season not as bad as people thought as they were without a competent quarterback for a large portion of last season. Their QB Riley Neal is back this year and he's a four year starter which gives them a huge edge compared to what CMU has for QB options on their team this year. Ball State has shown good signs this year when they've faced off against similar type foes, beating Kent State 52-24 just two weeks ago while CMU struggled against Maine and were blown out against Kansas. Ball State was badly embarrassed last year by Central Michigan losing 56-9 making this one payback time for the Cardinals.

The wrong team is favored in this one. Take Ball State plus the points here.

5 Unit Play Take #160 Oregon +3.5 over Washington (3:30pm est):

The CFB betting markets are still behind with how good this Oregon Ducks squad is this year. The Ducks have one of the most misleading final scores in CFB this season as they lost in overtime to Stanford in a game that they completely dominated. They not only lost a 17 point 2nd half lead with some fluke plays late but Oregon easily out-gained Stanford by over 100+ yards in the contest and were badly hurt by a minus 3 turnover margin in the contest. The Ducks were put in a very difficult spot the following week after their heartbreaking loss to Stanford and had to go on the road to face a well prepared and very dangerous California team that had a bye the previous week and had two weeks to prepare for Oregon. This didn't phase the Ducks at all as they had no problems beating a good Bears team and did so in convincing fashion by a 42-24 final score.

The Washington Huskies season resume doesn't look as impressive as it once did earlier this year. They lost a tough one to start the season against Auburn but that loss doesn't look as good now that the Tigers have been a big disappointment this year. Washington also struggled last week beating a bad UCLA team as the Huskies couldn't pull away from the Bruins and won by just 7 points in the game and overall they didn't look much better than UCLA in the game. The Huskies have been a bit overrated of late as they've failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games dating back to last season. Oregon had been dominating this annual series with 12 straight head to head wins between the Pac-12 rivals before 2016 but things have shifted in a big way the last two seasons with the Huskies winning by an average of 42 points in the last two battles. Those two embarrassing defeats combined with one conference loss already on the year means the Ducks should have their full focus and attention for this one here. Keep in mind also they were without their star quarterback Justin Herbert in last year's game versus UW as he was out with an injury at the time. Herbert is a big time talent and difference maker that many across the country don't know anything about. Look for him and the Beavers step up in a big way in this one.

Take Oregon plus the points.

4 Unit Play Take #176 Iowa State +6.5 over West Virginia (7:00pm est):

Feels like we've seen this before with an overvalued West Virginia team going on the road in Big 12 play and doing so as a favorite. The Mountaineers are just 3-6 against the number in this type of role their last 9 times. They've not had a real tough game yet this season outside of their road win against an average Texas Tech team which is a lot different their opponent in this one as ISU comes in battle tested in 2018.

Iowa State has already gone into Iowa, faced Oklahoma at home and was on the road the past two weeks against TCU and Oklahoma State as the Cyclones covered the point spread in all three of their conference tilts so far this season. Head coach Matt Campbell continues to cash tickets in Big 12 play having gone 16-5 ATS in conference play since taking over this ISU program.

Take Iowa State plus the points.

4 Unit Play Take #138 East Carolina +16 over Houston (7:00pm est):

East Carolina overall has been a lot better this season than it looks at first glance. They lost their season opener to a very good FCS foe North Carolina A&T in what is arguably the most 'faulty final score' we've seen so far this year in CFB as ECU was the much better team in the losing effort. The Pirates came back in their next game and hammered a decent North Carolina team winning by 22 points as 17 point underdogs in the game. ECU went on the road in their next game and went toe to toe with what is currently a 5-0 South Florida team. ECU dominated for much of that contest and they did so as 20 point underdogs in the game as they put up 24 first downs overall while allowing just 9. They beat Old Dominion the following week by two points but they put up 200+ more yards of offense in the game against the Monarchs. Last weekend ECU was hammered on the road against what is a much improved Temple squad as the Owls looked to be fired up after coming off a loss their previous game.

Houston enters this game at 4-1 on the year so far. The first two wins of the season for the Cougars have come against two disappointing teams (Rice and Arizona) this year. Houston went on the road the week after that and couldn't keep up with a very average Texas Tech squad losing by 14 points in the game. The Cougars throttled a bad FCS foe the following week and last week they got a 15 point win at home over Tulsa. I wasn't impressed at all with what I saw in the victory over Tulsa as Houston trailed by 9 points early in the 4th quarter of that game. They not only were at home in that one but were also playing a national TV mid-week home game against a below average opponent and facing a first time starting freshman QB in that one as well. Despite all of those things going their way the Cougars needed a big 4th quarter comeback to pull away late in that contest. They also show a 18 point victory over Rice earlier in the year but were actually trailing in that game late in the 3rd quarter.

ECU has shown a pulse at times this season and I think here at home they can hang with this Houston squad. Take East Carolina plus the points here.

3 Unit Play Take #129 Duke +2.5 over Georgia Tech (12:20pm est):

I felt before this season started that this one was one of the best Duke teams that we've seen and nothing I've seen so far this year has changed my opinion of that. The Blue Devils lost their starting quarterback for a few games early on to an injury but he's back now and that's huge for Duke. They pulled off some quality wins early in the year including going on the road and picking up victories against two quality foes at Northwestern and at Baylor. Duke's head coach David Cutcliffe has done an excellent job in two areas in the recent past as he's covered the point spread over 60% of the time as an underdog the last six seasons plus he's 14-2 ATS when getting 4 points or less in a game. Cutcliffe has also been a master at defending the option (4-0 ATS versus GT last 4 years) which he will be going up against here in this one against Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils have already been tested this year as they shut down a quality Army team and it's option in the season opener. Add in the fact they are off a bye week and have two weeks to prepare for this game along with their first loss of the season as well and those are two very big factors for Duke.

Georgia Tech has been it's usual up and down self to start off this season as the Yellow Jackets come in off back to back big wins in their last two games. That usually means that the betting markets will overreact to their recent form and I think we are seeing that with the line in this contest. The Yellow Jackets faced back to back foes in Bowling Green and Louisville both of whom are finesse type teams and neither showed much interest getting physical with this very physical football team. That won't the be the case here in this one as Duke is the type of team that likes to get down and dirty with their opponents.

Take Duke plus the points in this one.

3 Unit Play Take #163 Louisiana Tech -10.5 over UTSA (7:00pm est):

UTSA might be the most overrated team in the country right now as they come into this game on a three game winning streak. They got those three victories over teams who are currently a combined 0-14 on the year. That fact alone is bad but it get's worse as one of those wins came against a Texas State team who lost their starting quarterback in the 1st quarter and had to replace him with a true freshman in the game. UTSA beat UTEP the following game but they failed to cover the point spread over a UTEP team considered by many to be the worst FBS team in the nation. Last week UTSA beat Rice by a 20-3 score but once again I think that game comes with an asterisk next to it as they were plus 4 in turnovers for the game and didn't even have 200 yards of offense in the contest. UTSA hasn't had much of a home field advantage of late either as they've failed to cover the spread in any of their last 8 home games.

Louisiana Tech comes in off an upset loss last week at home to a decent UAB team. That should have the Bulldogs focused here in this one as head coach Skip Holtz has been able to get his team to respond off losses in the past going 5-2 against the spread their next game after a deal the last two seasons. Holtz hasn't had any issues with covering bigger numbers either as they are 9-4 ATS their last 13 times when favored by 10 points or more. This is a team that has already went on the road this year and beat a solid North Texas team and hung tough against LSU as well, covering the spread in both of those games.

Take Louisiana Tech minus the points here.

3 Unit Play Take #206 California -7 over UCLA (7:00pm est):

California was the much better of the two teams last week in their road loss at Arizona. The Bears had 200+ more yards of offense than than the Wildcats in the game but were done in by 4 turnovers in the game, one of which was a pick six and also had another drive where they got inside the Arizona 5-yard line but came away with zero points. This is a quality team that's in year number two under head coach Justin Wilcox and are close to becoming a very good team soon. They should be ultra focused here in this one coming in off back to back losses the last two weeks while also looking for revenge for losing on a last second field goal last year in their game against UCLA.

The Bruins are in year one under Chip Kelly and this is a program under a major rebuild right now. They played their best game of the season last week losing by 7 points at home against Washington but keep in mind also they scored a meaningless touchdown in that one with 1:38 left in the game down by two scores and did so on 4th down. That close loss has probably effected the line for this game a point or two as UCLA had been scorched in their other four games this year going winless and losing by average of 21 points per game. The way things ended last week for both of these teams has effected this line quite a bit here.
Take California minus the points here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA COLLEGE SAT
6* USC -7
4* Over 57.5, Wash @ Oregon
3* LSU +7.5
3* Baylor +14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LARRY NESS

LEGEND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA -7

TOP
VANDERBILT +7
NEBRASKA +5

regular
byu
charlotte
washington
marshall

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc lawrence

---

Iowa st
memphis
lsu
mich st
wisconsin

from vegas insider

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PREFERRED PICKS:
4 Wisconsin +9.5
3 Iowa St +6.5
3 LSU +7.5
3 Michigan St +13.5

[BONTRAGER]

LARRY NESS

LEGEND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA -7

TOP
VANDERBILT +7
NEBRASKA +5

regular
byu
charlotte
washington
marshall

Just to be sure Legend PLAY is USC and not California? Both are -7

[DamnMexican]

gurusdeportivos.com (2-0 last week 5-1 overall in CFB)

Florida/Vanderbilt under 50.5
UCF/Memphis over 81.5
Ole Miss -6.5
Baylor +14

[Majorp]

LasVegasDataBase

Florida under 50.5

9-0 documented run on instagram

[dawggy]

From Arthur Ralph Sports.

Sat:10/13 Saturday Super Pk Central Fla -4 1/2, 4 Monsters Iowa -4, Geo Tech -2 1/2, Fresno St -17,Florida -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Just to be sure Legend PLAY is USC and not California? Both are -7

USC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Stryker

EXTREMELY RARE 17-0 ATS PERFECT WAGERING ANGLE
La. Tech

33-9 ATS & 11-0 ATS NCAA ULTIMATE DATABASE WAGER
Va. Tech

46-16 ATS NCAA REVENGE GAME of the MONTH
Oklahoma State

2-TEAM NCAA CONFERENCE PARLAY of the MONTH
Maryland and Michigan State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

College Football Perfect System Club Perfect Play!

Michigan State and Wisconsin

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

1-Unit Play. Take #126 Illinois (+10.5) over Purdue (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)

5-Unit Play. Take #154 Notre Dame (-20.5) over Pittsburgh (2:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
Let's just keep riding the Irish. This team is dominating people right now. They've beaten Wake Forest, Stanford and Virginia Tech - three teams better than Pitt - by 29, 21 and 22 points the last three weeks, respectively. And two of those games were on the road. I think they are going to body slam a Pitt team that has already been blown out 51-6 by Penn State and 45-14 by Central Florida. Since turning to Ian Book the Irish have really taken off and now this group is legitimately one of the best teams in the country. Pitt is No. 107 in the country in offense and No. 119 in passing offense. They are not going to run the ball against Notre Dame's powerful front. So I don't know how they are going to get offense. The Panthers are also No. 97 in total defense, No. 104 in rushing defense, and No. 99 in points allowed. This is just a horrible, horrible matchup for a Pitt team that is already coming off an upset win. These two always seem to play close. Not this time.

3-Unit Play. Take #156 USC (-7) over Colorado (10:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
Colorado might be one of the most overrated teams in the country right now. The have played one of the nation's easiest schedules and that, more than anything else, is why they are currently 5-0. In Colorado's one true road game they were outgained by 170 yards by a bad Nebraska team and needed a last minute 40-yard touchdown to steal a five-point win. I know that USC isn't very good. But their losses have come on the road to very good Stanford and Texas teams. They also have a true road win at Arizona and the Trojans haven't lost to Colorado this century. The fact that the unranked Trojans are favored by a touchdown over a Top 20 team here tells you everything you need to know. And after two weeks of preparation I think that Clay Helton knows he is coaching for his job here. USC should be ready.

1-Unit Play. Take #158 San Jose State (+15) over Army (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
San Jose State is a joke. They are 0-5 again this year after beating just one FBS team last year. I don't even know why these guys have athletics at their school. But upon closer inspection, the Spartans have been competitive in their losses. They lost by just 12 to Colorado State, by just 3 to Hawaii, and by just 13 at Oregon. Army beat that same Hawaii team by just a touchdown. They have also tangled with tough teams like Oklahoma and Buffalo. Now they have to travel across the country to take on a team that they know they are better than, with bigger games coming later in the schedule. What is Army's motivation for a blowout here? The Army is 2-6 ATS against below-.500 teams, 3-7 ATS against teams with a losing home record, and 2-6 ATS against teams from the Mountain West. San Jose State will take another loss but I think it will be by fewer than two touchdowns.

3-Unit Play. Take #168 Arkansas (+7) over Mississippi (7:30 p.m.)
I have been impressively wrong about Arkansas this year. This team is undergoing a massive rebuild and, frankly, they suck. However, they have covered the spread in their last two games and they might be a little undervalued because of their pathetic start. They have lost five straight. But they get their next four games at home and I think they will be able to pick up at least a couple wins. Ole Miss puts a lot of points on the board but does not defend. That makes them a bit of a shaky road favorite. The Rebels are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 SEC games and just 1-4 ATS against teams with a losing record. The underdog is 7-0 ATS in this series, Arkansas is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, and the Razorbacks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games against Ole Miss. I'll take a shot on the home dog.

1-Unit Play. Take #170 Michigan (-9.5) over Wisconsin (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
The public is pouring money on the Badgers. And with good reason. This is still a very good Wisconsin team. And they have absolutely owned Michigan, beating them by two touchdowns last year and going 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings (5-1 ATS in Ann Arbor). But I'm going against the public here. All the money is coming in on Wisconsin but the line is moving the other way. I think Michigan's defense is going to be able to slow down the Badgers running attack. And if that happens then I don't know what Wisconsin's counterpunch will be. They are No. 102 in the country in passing. But maybe more disconcerting about Wisconsin is that they are outside the Top 40 in total defense, pass defense and rush defense, yet No. 13 in points allowed. Basically, they have been lucky to this point. That, and they've played a soft schedule. I don't think Michigan will beat this number by much. But I do think they have the goods to slug their way to a 10-point win.

1-Unit Play. Take #172 Ohio State (-29.5) over Minnesota (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 13)

2-Unit Play. Take #198 LSU (+7.5) over Georgia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
To this point Georgia has had an impressively easy schedule. They didn't play any big nonconference games. And their toughest two league games were at South Carolina and at Missouri, two mediocre teams. Now the Bulldogs will go on the road and take on a Top 20 team. Georgia isn't going to be able to push LSU around up front the same way they have been able to against the weak sisters they have been playing. LSU has already beaten legit teams like Miami and Auburn, and they are going to come to play in front of a rowdy home crowd. If Georgia isn't able to just physically dominate the line of scrimmage and push LSU around, what is their second punch going to be? That's what we will find out about this group. I can see UGA winning this game. But I think that this spread is a little optimistic for this matchup. It wouldn't stun me if LSU sprung the upset here and they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine SEC games. I'll go with the home dog.

1-Unit Play. Take #186 Auburn (-15) over Tennessee (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 13)

2-Unit Play. Take #188 Texas (-14) over Baylor (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
Yes, a letdown should be expected from the Longhorns in this game. But this play shows how little respect I have for Baylor. This team still sucks. They fluked out a win over Kansas State last week and they lost by 33 at Oklahoma, you know the team that Texas just beat. Texas has beaten USC, TCU, Kansas State and Oklahoma over the last four weeks. That's a great run. And this is a no-joke team. The Longhorns have a lot more talent than the Bears and they went on the road and beat them 38-7 last season. Texas is 4-1 SU and ATS the last five years after they face the Sooners, so they have been able to avoid letdowns to this point. I think they can do the same this year and get another blowout win to add to their momentum.

1-Unit Play. Take #189 Missouri (+28) over Alabama (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
I absolutely hate betting against Alabama. But at some point this team is going to price itself out of the market. And they may have already. They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games and facing a Missouri team that can move the ball a little and can put some points up on the board. Missouri played Georgia within 14 points and the Bulldogs matchup pretty well with the Crimson Tide. Frankly, Alabama always plays one of the easiest schedules in the country. And this year is no exception. They have only faced one team that is likely to go to a bowl game through six weeks of the season. I think they will win this game easily. But I also think they will leave the backdoor open. I can see this being a 30- or 34-point lead for the home team in the fourth quarterback before some late points by Drew Lock and the Tigers make it look respectable.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy

6-Unit Play. Take #168 Arkansas +7 over Ole Miss (Saturday, October 13th at 7:30 PM ET)

Take Arkansas ATS as my 6-Unit CFB Smash for Saturday. This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and the Razorbacks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against the Rebels. The Razorbacks are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games when playing a team with a winning record on the road and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. The Rebels are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after putting up more than 40 points in their previous game and they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by more than 20 points. Arkansas just put up 31 points against the bets team in the country and one of the best defenses in the country. Ole Miss just put up 7 points against that same Alabama team which shows just how underrated this Razorbacks team is offensively. Arkansas has averaged 34.3 ppg at home this season and Ole Miss has allowed an average of 53.5 ppg in their two conference games this season while putting up just 11.5 points. Play Arkansas ATS.