Tuesday 10-16-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park
Mountaineer Park - Race 1

First Half $2 Early Daily Double (Races 1-2) $.50 Trifecta $1 Exacta Box ($.20) Superfecta


Claiming $4,000 • 7 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 70 • Purse: $9,100 • Post: 7:00P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 16 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000. (IF NECESSARY WILL BE RUN SIX FURLONGS MAIN TRACK.).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Stalker. QUICK GRADUATE is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * WILD ASPEN FLOWER: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ROC KAROO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. QUICK GRADUATE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Today is a sprint and the horse is car rying at least 120 lbs. SHESA BAD BAD GIRL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3
WILD ASPEN FLOWER
3/1

9/2
8
ROCKAROO
9/2

5/1
5
QUICK GRADUATE
8/1

8/1
10
SHESA BAD BAD GIRL
10/1

9/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
3
WILD ASPEN FLOWER
3

3/1
Front-runner
77

72

87.8

68.6

64.6
10
SHESA BAD BAD GIRL
10

10/1
Front-runner
65

66

74.0

56.7

49.7
7
MARIE JOELLE
7

5/1
Front-runner
71

69

58.8

23.7

16.7
5
QUICK GRADUATE
5

8/1
Stalker
70

68

44.6

61.8

52.8
1
SUNDAY DINNER
1

8/1
Trailer
71

55

64.5

55.9

44.9
8
ROCKAROO
8

9/2
Trailer
79

72

22.6

69.2

58.7
9
COLLEENS STORM
9

12/1
Trailer
64

57

21.4

52.8

40.3
6
CHARLIES WATCHIN
6

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
59

47

68.3

53.1

34.6
2
PREFER DIAMONDS
2

4/1
Alternator/Non-contender
76

66

36.6

55.2

47.2
4
MARKET RISK
4

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
56

42

22.1

51.3

32.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Portland Meadows
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6400 Class Rating: 65

FOR REGISTERED OREGON BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 TRULY A GEM 8/5

# 5 ASTOUNDING ABBY 3/1

# 3 FOOLSTONE 3/1

My pick for this event is TRULY A GEM. This mare is a key contender based on her earnings per start in dirt sprint contests. She has earned very good numbers under today's conditions and ought to fare well against this field. Could provide positive gains based on respectable recent speed figures with an average of 62. ASTOUNDING ABBY - Hoover has her trained quite well to break swiftly out of the starting gate.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Thistledown - Race #1 - Post: 1:40pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 59

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 WHOKILLEDTHELIGHTS (ML=5/2)


WHOKILLEDTHELIGHTS - Jock hops right back on after getting to know the race horse by riding in the last race. That's always a good sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 BOASTFUL DENIAL (ML=3/1), #1 FASTEST MAX (ML=7/2), #4 MELTDOWN MAX (ML=9/2),

BOASTFUL DENIAL - Didn't meet expectations as the public's choice twice. Won't be easy for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last fig. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put him on the likely underpriced contenders list. FASTEST MAX - This gelding almost certainly won't be close at the finish. MELTDOWN MAX - This gelding hasn't had any recent favorable outcomes in short distance contests. Difficult to bet on him in this contest. More than enough efforts at Thistledown with no visits to the victory podium.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 WHOKILLEDTHELIGHTS is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Zia Park - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,500 Class Rating: 47

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 JUST BETTY (ML=9/2)


JUST BETTY - Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone speedy sort facing sluggish sorts today. Trainer, Guilkey, has been deliberate with this filly off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SOFIA'S SUMMER (ML=1/1), #1 IT'S ABOUT ALEX (ML=7/2), #7 WORTHY CAUSE (ML=8/1),

SOFIA'S SUMMER - Should have at least finished in the money in the last sixty days in a short distance event to be worth the chance at nominal odds in a sprint. IT'S ABOUT ALEX - The finish of eighth in the last affair shows me that this equine may be going out of form. WORTHY CAUSE - Tough to invest in any thoroughbred like this that didn't end up on the board after the long breather and comes right back. Based on the pace scenario in this race, this horse doesn't fit in here. With a single front-runner and this equine having to race from behind, she sure has a tough assignment. Won't be easy for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the likely underlays list.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #5 JUST BETTY to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Eastern Conference Outlook
Marc Lawrence

Welcome to the 2018-19 NBA season!

Listed below is our preview of each team in the Eastern Conference.Note that all teams are listed alphabetically with the opening Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook season win totals listed in parenthesis.

Atlanta Hawks (23.5) – Behind a bevy of young talent, the Hawks are building for the future. Rookies Trae Young, Kevin Huerter and Omari Spellman will team with last year’s 1st round pick Taurean Prince for new GM Travis Schlenk, who spent his time helping build the Warriors in Golden State. To no surprise, Schlenk is using the Warriors blueprint to rebuild this franchise and it starts with new head coach Lloyd Pierce. Veteran Vince Carter will be relied on to temper the youth movement. John Collins and Jeremy Lin will also be contributing pieces.

Betting Nugget: The Hawks are 5-14 ATS as favorites against foes coming off consecutive losses, including 1-6 ATS away.

Boston Celtics (57.5) – Biggest additions this season are the return to health of All-Star F Gordon Hayward who missed last season with a broken leg, All-Star G Kyrie Irving who was ruled out for the season on March 11 with knee surgery, and G Marcus Smart who tore ligaments in his thumb on the same day. Hayward played five minutes, Irving only 60 games, and Smart 54 games, with all three sidelined for the playoffs. In addition, Jaylen Brown, Jason Tatum, Al Horford, Terry Rozier and Aron Baynes make this team the deepest in the Eastern Conference. As long as they don’t worry about who starts they are the team to beat in the East.

Betting Nugget: The Celtics are 128-95-2 ATS away behind Stevens, including 16-4 ATS as a dog of 11 or more points (10-0 in non-conference games), but only 1-7 ATS as a favorite of more than 8 points.

Brooklyn Nets (32.5) – Mark it down. In the final season of his rookie contract, Nets PG D’Angelo Russell could be in for big campaign. If he irons out his inconsistency issues he could be headed for a big payday. His backcourt mate, Allen Crabbe, is a 40% shooter from outside the arc, while F DeMarre Carroll is coming off a career year. Vegas likes them as their season win total is up 6 games from last season.

Betting Nugget:The Nets are 22-12 ATS when coming off a win against foes coming off a win since Russell joined the team in 2015, including 14-4 ATS away.

Charlotte Hornets (35.5) – The season win total this year is 7 games lower than last year, and for all the right reasons. New GM Mitch Kupchak welcomes former Spurs assistant James Borrego as his new head coach and with it a roster overhaul is in the making. Future Hall of Fame PG Tony Parker comes over from San Antonio to back up Kemba Walker. They’ll rely on high-flying rookie Myles Bridges (No. 12 pick in this year’s draft) to team with last year’s top rookie Malik Monk to from a new young nucleus. And it’s time for Cody Zeller and Frank Kaminsky to stand and deliver.

Betting Nugget: The Hornets are 14-7 ATS in their franchise history as division games against foes off a SU favorite loss, including 6-0 ATS when Charlotte is coming off consecutive losses.

Chicago Bulls (27.5) – Despite a 9-27 finish to the season last year, and behind a healthy Jabari Parker and Zach LaVine, this year’s season win total is up 6 games from last season. But then again it had nowhere to go but up. Accused by many of “tanking” late last year, the Bulls slipped into the No. 7 spot in the draft where they selected 19-year-old Wendell Carter Jr. Along with first team All-Rookie F Laurie Markkenen (15.2 PPG and 7.5 RPG) the Bulls are young and talented and should they come together they figure to challenge for a spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Betting Nugget: The Bulls are just 3-13 ATS as favorites against Western Conference opponents the last two seasons.

Cleveland Cavaliers (30.5) – Yes, with the King taking his act to Hollywood, the biggest team drop in season wins total from last year to this was made by the Cavs (53.5 in 2017-18). So the roller coaster ride for Cleveland continues with F Kevin Love as the new anchor. First round draft choice Collin Sexton has the ability and the temperament to be in the league Rookie of the Year talk. With head coach Tyronn Lue now sitting squarely on the hot seat sans James, he’ll need career years from George Hill, Tristan Thompson and J.R. Smith to turn down the flames.

Betting Nugget: The Cavaliers are 9-1 ATS as double-digit home dogs.

Detroit Pistons (37.5) – The Pistons welcomes the NBA Coach of the Year, two beasts under the basket, and the return of an All Star point guard… yet they are not projected to make the playoffs. Dwane Casey led the Toronto Raptors to the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs last season, while Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond figure to effectively patrol the paint. And Reggie Jackson returns to distribute the ball after missing 37 games last season with an ankle injury (they were 27-18 in games he played). If Stanley Johnson can finally live up to his ability, Detroit’s stating five could seat to only Boston in the conference.

Betting Nugget: The Pistons are 16-5 ATS as a home dog in division games when coming off a loss.

Indiana Pacers (47.5) – One of the largest moves in win totals from last season to this (Pacers were 31.5 wins last year), Indiana did a nice job in the offseason keeping players in place while adding key pieces to bolster the attack in Tyreke Evans and Doug McDermott. If G Victor Oladipo retains his All-Star status, this cohesive crew of unselfish players - 7 of which averaged double-digits last season - should be back in the playoffs by season’s end, especially with seven of it’s top nine salaried players in the final year of their contracts.

Betting Nugget: Indiana is 12-32-1 ATS at home off a loss in double no-rest games against Eastern Conference foes.

Miami Heat (41.5) – Vegas sees similar result for the Heat this season as last when the win total was 43.5 and Miami won 41 games during the regular season. Back making his final curtain call, veteran Dywane Wade’s farewell tour will find him in the company of leading scorer Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson, Hassan Whiteside and James Johnson who each averaged double-digits. In addition, former first round F Justice Winslow and rugged glassman Bam Adebayo seem poised for a breakout year. If they improve any at all they could make it one step further to the second-round of the playoffs this season.

Betting Nugget: Miami is 8-28-1 ATS at home against division foes coming off a SU underdog win.

Milwaukee Bucks (46.5) – Like Miami, the Bucks season win total was adjusted only slightly from last season to this. Milwaukee’s biggest offseason move was the hiring of Mike Budenholzer (Atlanta), as it’s new head coach. In the process the Bucks brought hack Ersan Ilyasova, a former Buck who played with Budenholzer in Atlanta, and veteran C Brook Lopez. But all hopes are pinned on the ‘Greek Freak’ star C Giannis Antekounmpo, a legitimate MVP candidate. PG Eric Bledsoe, in has free agent season, will steer the ship while 20 PPG Khris Middleton should be highly productive following a devastating hamstring tear. Color the Bucks playoff bound this season.

Betting Nugget: The Bucks are 11-26-1 ATS at home against losing foes the last two seasons.

New York Knicks (29.5) – Not much movement from last season’s 30.5 win total as the Knickerbockers are once again starting from ground zero this year. Or perhaps we should say sub zero with their best player Kristaps Porzingis out until February with a torn ACL. New head coach David Fizdale takes over for Jeff Hornacek and he immediately selected 6-foot-9 F Kevin Knox, only 19 years old, with the No. 9 pick in this year’s NBA draft. Fizdale had the league’s seventh-ranked defense in his one full season at Memphis. They’ll need him to crack the whip, as they've been a worse-than-average defensive team in 16 of the last 17 seasons. The good news is G Tim Hardaway Jr. saw his scoring average rise to 17.5 PPG. The bad news is he was the worst 3-point shooter in the league of 59 players with at least 350 attempts.

Betting Nugget: The Knicks are 3-16 ATS as a home dog without rest following a SUATS loss.

Orlando Magic (31.5) – Here we go again. Since drafting Dwight Howard and seeing him depart eight years later in 2012, Orlando has won 30 or more games once in six seasons. Behind emerging star F Aaron Gordon, the Magic hope 7-foot rim protector Mohamed Bamba, their top pick in this year’s NBA draft will help erase memories Howard’s fleeting career in the Magic Kingdom. New head coach Steve Clifford immediately acquired PG Jerian Grant from Chicago and added former first-rounder Jarell Martin from Memphis. Clifford knows the Southeast Division from his days in Charlotte, a team he lead to the playoffs. If Nikola Vucevic effectively anchors the middle and SG Evan Fournier continues to ascend the Magic will be better than the Mickey Mouse reputation that precedes them.

Betting Nugget: Orlando is 1-19 ATS in its last twenty games as a division favorite.

Philadelphia 76ers (54.5) – Is the Sixers’ 12 game projected season win total of 54.5 this year (up from 42.5 last year) warranted? Perhaps. But you can’t argue with success and Philadelphia has enjoyed unprecedented achievement the past two seasons. That’s confirmed by the fact that they witnessed the league's biggest increase in winning percentage, improving from 10-72 in 2015-16 to 52-30 last season when they won their last 16 games of the regular season and blew out the Miami Heat a first-round playoff series. They paid the price for success in the offseason, though, when GM Bryan Colangelo resigned in June and two key reserves Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova were lost in free agency. New GM Elton Brand is tasked with replicating last year’s winning ways. With a starting lineup that includes four players - Robert Covington, Joel Embiid, Dario Saric and Ben Simmons - that are 6-foot-9 or taller, the Sixers should be a good defensive team. The question is will they be better. –

Betting Nugget: Philadelphia is 10-1 ATS as a home dog against non-conference opponents.

Toronto Raptors (55.5) – Yes, it was a good season in Toronto last campaign. The won a franchise-record 59 regular season games, and were the only team to rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. But after a third straight playoff exit at the hands of LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, sweeping changes were made. NBA Coach of the Year Dwane Casey was shown the door and All-Star G DeMar DeRozan was traded for Kawhi Leonard in a stunning swap of MVP candidates. Former assistant Nick Nurse takes over and with it look for bombs away to be the mantra in Toronto. In Nurse’s two seasons as coach of the Rio Grande Valley Vipers (2011-12 and '12-13), the team took 33 percent of its shots from 3-point range, a rate that was four times the G League average. If Leonard is healthy his addition could be a home run. If not, the Raptors will have swung for the fences and struck out. Stay tune

Betting Nugget: The Raptors are 15-3-2 ATS in its last twenty games as dogs of more than 3 or more points in non-conference games.

Washington Wizards (44.5) – The Wizards were the class of the Southeast last season. The question is with LeBron James now performing in Los Angles, can they compete for more than a division title this season? The starting guard tandem of John Wall and Bradley Beal is arguably the best in the league. Solid additions of Dwight Howard, Austin Rivers, and Jeff Green dramatically improve the depth on the roster. Ironically, Howard replaces Martin Gortat, who was Howard’s backup in Orlando. Meanwhile, Otto Porter Jr. inked a big contract two seasons ago and delivered on his promise when he averaged 14.7 and 6.4 points and rebound per game last season. With the Wizards looking for their first 50-win effort and trip to the conference finals in the Wall-Beal era, look for a deeper bench to provide the path.

Betting Nugget: The Wizards are 3-11 ATS as double-digit favorites when playing without rest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Western Conference Outlook
Marc Lawrence

Listed below is our preview of each team in the Eastern Conference.Note that all teams are listed alphabetically with the opening Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook season win totals listed in parenthesis.

Dallas Mavericks (34.5) – Coming off their worst season since 1997-98, the Mavericks. Strangely, other than the addition of free agent C DeAndre Jordan to a one-year deal, Dallas did little in the offseason to shake up the roster. They will instead count on continued improvement from G Dennis Smith Jr., a second team All-Rookie performer who averaged 15.2 PPG last season, and other young talent including first-round pick Luca Doncic. Veterans Dirk Nowitzki and Harrison Barnes figure to settle this fledgling roster. A small step forward is probable but will go likely unnoticeable in the powerful Western Conference.

Betting Nugget: The Mavs are 0-7 SUATS ATS as favorites against .680 or greater division opponents since 2015.

Denver Nuggets (47.5) – A season ending loss to the Timberwolves denied Denver the opportunity to make the playoffs last year. And with it it’s now been five years since the Nuggets last appeared in the postseason. They locked up C Nikola Jokic, signed PG Isaiah Thomas and drafted Michael Porter Jr. the former prep phenom. A key this season will be the return to health of Paul Millsap, a former All-Star who was limited to 44 games last season. But in order for it all to work they will need to improve on a defense that hasn’t finished in the Top 10 since 2008-09. Note: They will open the campaign at home for 10 of their first 15 games, meaning a strong start could be in the offing if they wish to avoid last year’s season-ending train wreck.

Betting Nugget: Denver is 41-18-1 ATS as a dog off a loss since December of 2015, including 29-9-2 ATS away.

Golden State Warriors (62.5) – Winners of the NBA championship three of the last four years, including back-to-back titles, the Warriors are led by the star power of Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry – the best one-two punch in the NBA. It didn’t matter that Curry played in only 51 games because of an ankle injury, the support cast is good enough to make the playoffs on their own merit. The offseason addition of DeMarcus Cousins – recovering from an torn Achilles and expected to be in the lineup after the holidays – is scary and could carry them to another level this postseason. And while Father Time paid Andre Iguodala a visit last season he will provide the glue until Cousins is ready to contribute. Still, they are very much the team to beat.

Betting Nugget: The Warriors are 2-11 ATS as favorites of 9 or more points without rest against rested opponents.

Houston Rockets (54.5) – After accepting the biggest jump of all season win totals from 2017-17 to last year (from 41.5 to 55.5) and then flying over the total behind a dominant 65-17 effort, the Rockets are focused on taking the Larry O’Brien Trophy away from the Golden State Warriors this season. GM Daryl Mobley acquired Carmelo Anthony and added James Ennis. Word has it that valuable sixth man Eric Gordon, a dangerous scorer off the bench, will be added to the starting lineup to open the spot up for Anthony. It should be noted that Anthony shined in that role with Team USA in the Olympics. The key though is having the best guard tandem in the league – Chris Paul and James Harden – healthy throughout the playoffs this season.

Betting Nugget: Houston is 20-8 ATS away in double no-rest situations when coming off a double-digit win.

LA Clippers (35.5) – The Clippers season win total has fallen from 53.5 to 43.5 to 35.5 the last three years. This is not what billionaire owner Steve Ballmer signed up for. But it’s what happens when you lose Chris Paul and Blake Griffin over the course of the past two seasons. To their credit, even with a rash of injuries and Griffin moving on at midseason last year, the Clippers managed to finish the season with a winning record. Now with Mr. Clipper DeAndre Jordan, gone GM Jerry West is tasked with keeping head coach Doc Rivers in place (he traded his son, Austin, this summer). Having super sixth man Lou Williams helps but with the buzz in La La land centering around LeBron James these days, they’ll likely be in the NBA lottery at season’s end.

Betting Nugget: The Clippers were 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS as division favorites last season.

Los Angeles Lakers (47.5) – Unlike their crosstown rivals, the Lakers have witnessed their season win totals climb from 24.5 to 33.5 to 47.5 over the course of the last three years. The latest jump of course surrounds the arrival of the King in Hollywood, LeBron James. Before his arrival, the Lakers put the franchise in the hands of Julius Randle, Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma and Brandon Ingram who were simply too inexperienced to win enough games to earn a playoff berth. That is expected to end this season, though, with James assuming the throne. They were forced to move Randle in free agency, though, and then signed four free agents to one-year deals. The question is whether or not any of the four have anything left in the tank. As a result head coach Luke Walton is on the hot seat.

Betting Nugget: The Lakers are 8-22-2 ATS home on Sundays in non-division games against opponents coming off consecutive SUATS losses.

Memphis Grizzlies (33.5) – Just about everything that could go wrong for Memphis did last year. Losing super PG Mike Conley to a season ending injuring and having All-Star C Marc Gasol embroiled in a dispute with former head coach David Fizdale took the Grizzlies completely out of the playoff race before the end of the calendar year. Current head coach J.B. Bickerstaff was ecstatic at landing prized draft pick Jaren Jackson Jr., as he’ll team with new additions in Kyle Anderson, Shelvin Mack and Omri Casspi to form a nice blend with Chandler Parsons. And it appears second-round pick Dillon Brooks from Oregon was an absolute steal. With Conley and Gasol two of the best players in the league at their positions, a bounce-back looks to be in order for the Grizzlies this season.

Betting Nugget: Memphis is 2-13-1 ATS as division favorites against foes off a double-digit loss, including 0-8-1 ATS the last nine games.

Minnesota Timberwolves (44.5) – The opening season win total took a hard hit from 44.5 down to 41.5 upon word of Jimmy Butler’s request to be traded. It leaves the Wolves in a sticky situation and the onus squarely on Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Jeff Teague to return to the playoffs for a second straight year (after a previous 13-years absence). Former Bulls and Heat F Luol Deng was signed as insurance. But they will need Wiggins to step up as his stats fell heavily last season immediately after signing a five-year max deal. Through it all head coach and president of operations Tom Thibodeau is under the microscope and he’ll hope that former All Star Derrick Rose has something left in the tank.

Betting Nugget: The Wolves are 39-93-2 ATS as non-division home dogs of 6 or more points, including 2-18 ATS without rest.

New Orleans Pelicans (45.5) – Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and Nikola Mirotic helped power the Pelicans to the playoffs last season. So did DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo but they bailed as free agents during the offseason. In their stead New Orleans inked Jahlil Okafor as a free agent and acquired Julius Randle in a trade with the Lakers. They will certainly need a breakout season form PG Elfrid Payton. Anchored by arguably the most talented player in the loop (Davis), this team will be back playing in the postseason once again this year if Okafor, only 22 years old, revives his career. Mark it down.

Betting Nugget: The Pelicans are 31-9 ATS as division home dogs since 2007, including 27-3 ATS versus .580 or greater opponents.

Oklahoma City Thunder (50.5) – The biggest additions made by the Thunder in the offseason was one it weren’t forced to make and the other they were thrilled to land. When free agent swingman Paul George opted to re-sign with OKC they once again became viable contenders in the West. Trading Carmelo Anthony and landing G Dennis Schroeder (19.4 PPG) to come off the bench was a huge upgrade. With 12 of the first 21 games at home, behind all-everything G Russell Westbrook, a fast start will make them the team to beat in the Northwest division.

Betting Nugget: The Thunder is 17-7 ATS as a dog without rest following a loss against unrested opponents, including 10-1 ATS against foes also coming off a loss.

Phoenix Suns (28.5) – With Igor Kokoskov agreeing to become the Suns new head coach this season, he would have fit like peanut butter to jelly had he opted to select Luka Doncic, the MVP of the European League, with the first pick in this year’s draft. After all, as coach of the Slovenian national team he coached him in the EuroBasket tournament. Phoenix instead opted for local talent Deandre Ayton who brings an athletic NBA-ready body into the league from Arizona. With leading scorer Devin Booker and complimentary players TJ Warren and Josh Jackson alongside, the climb back to respectability begins.

Betting Nugget: The Suns are 32-10 ATS as home dogs against foes off back-to-back SUATS wins, including 15-1 ATS when Phoenix is coming off a double-digit loss.

Portland Trail Blazers (41.5)– The defending Northwest Division champs are still peeved after being swept by New Orleans in the first round of last year’s NBA playoffs. Expect first team NBA G Damian Lillard (26.9 PPG) to take full charge this season. His 1,052 points in the second half last season were second only to LeBron James’ 1,073. With running mate CJ McCollum’s 21.4 PPG they form a lethal one-two guard combination. With pretty much a pat hand coming back this season anything but another playoff push would be disappointing in the Rose Garden this season.

Betting Nugget: The Blazers are 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS as division home dogs following a win, including 6-0 ATS off a win of 6 or more points.

Sacramento Kings (25.5) – Meet the team with the longest current playoff drought in the NBA. The last time the Kings drank Gator Aid from a playoff cooler was during the 2005-06 postseason. And according to NBA.com rather than making wholesale changes, the Kings are locked into a build-from-within mindset. They’ve decided to keep their cap space flexible in case of a trade opportunity at the deadline. The selection of Marvin Bagley III with the No. 2 pick of the draft met with some surprise when they passed on Luca Doncic, who likely would have given them some desperately needed instant firepower (the Kings were dead last in scoring last season, averaging 98.8 PPG). Improvement will need to come from last year’s top pick, 7-foot C Willie Cauley-Stein. In addition, potential stars in the making could be De’Aaron Fox and 6-foot-10 F Harry Giles, who missed his rookie season with a knee injury.

Betting Nugget: The Kings are 3-12-1 ATS as favorites against opponents coming off a loss.

San Antonio Spurs (43.5) – After winning 61 regular season games two years ago, and then failing to win 50 games last season, the Spurs season win total is as low as its been in memory under Greg Popovich this year. It’s what happened when time caught up with the likes of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli. Topping it off, the best player on the roster since Duncan’s retirement, Kawhi Leonard, was traded for All-Star G DeMar Rozan. One thing is for certain: LaMarcus Alridge and Pau Gasol are going to need to pick up their games if the Spurs hope to make the playoffs this season.

Betting Nugget: The Spurs are 17-7 ATS as home underdogs when coming off a SUATS loss and facing an opponent coming off a win.

Utah Jazz (48.5 / 40.5)– The Jazz rallied win 29 of their final 35 games to reach the playoffs last season. They were driven by the outstanding play of rookie Donovan Mitchell, along with and the league’s Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. Utah immediately went to work in the offseason to re-sign free agents Derrick Favors and Dante Exum, before adding added Duke marksman Grayson Allen with their first-round pick. If Exum can remain healthy and Mitchell does not regress, PG Ricky Rubio could be in for a career year.

Betting Nugget: Utah is a long-term 28-5 SU and 24-8-1 ATS home off a win against non-rested foes off consecutive SUATS losses, including 20-2 SU and 18-3-1 ATS in non-division games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2018-19 Playoff Props

The 2018-19 NBA regular season is scheduled to begin on Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2018 and conclude on Wednesday, Apr. 10, 2019.

The postseason will begin in the second week of April and bettors can wager on which 16 teams will earn a trip to the postseason with Playoff Props.

Last year's field included:

Eastern Conference
Toronto Raptors
Boston Celtics
Philadelphia 76ers
Cleveland Cavaliers
Indiana Pacers
Miami Heat
Milwaukee Bucks
Washington Wizards

Western Conference
Houston Rockets
Golden State Warriors
Portland Trail Blazers
Oklahoma City Thunder
Utah Jazz
New Orleans Pelicans
San Antonio Spurs
Minnesota Timberwolves

Will Atlanta Hawks Make the Playoffs?
No -5000 (Bet $100 to win $2)
Yes +1800 (Bet $100 to win $1,800)

Will Boston Celtics Make the Playoffs?
Yes -6600
No +2000

Will Brooklyn Nets Make the Playoffs?
No -400
Yes +300

Will Charlotte Hornets Make the Playoffs?
No -160
Yes +130

Will Chicago Bulls Make the Playoffs?
No -700
Yes +450

Will Cleveland Cavaliers Make the Playoffs?
No -600
Yes +400

Will Dallas Mavericks Make the Playoffs?
No -1000
Yes +600

Will Denver Nuggets Make the Playoffs?
Yes -400
No +300

Will Detroit Pistons Make the Playoffs?
Yes -170
No +140

Will Golden State Warriors Make the Playoffs?
Yes -20000
No +5000

Will Houston Rockets Make the Playoffs?
Yes -6600
No +2000

Will Indiana Pacers Make the Playoffs?
Yes -1000
No +600

Will Los Angeles Clippers Make the Playoffs?
No -650
Yes +425

Will Los Angeles Lakers Make the Playoffs?
Yes -400
No +300

Will Memphis Grizzlies Make the Playoffs?
No -800
Yes +500

Will Miami Heat Make the Playoffs?
Yes -450
No +325

Will Milwaukee Bucks Make the Playoffs?
Yes -2000
No +1000

Will Minnesota Timberwolves Make the Playoffs?
No -180
Yes +150

Will New Orleans Pelicans Make the Playoffs?
Yes -215
No +170

Will New York Knicks Make the Playoffs?
No -1000
Yes +600

Will Oklahoma City Make the Playoffs?
Yes -800
No +500

Will Orlando Magic Make the Playoffs?
No -600
Yes +400

Will Philadelphia 76ers Make the Playoffs?
Yes -4000
No +1400

Will Phoenix Suns Make the Playoffs?
No -2000
Yes +1000

Will Portland Trail Blazers Make the Playoffs?
No -160
Yes +130

Will Sacramento Kings Make the Playoffs?
No -4000
Yes +1400

Will San Antonio Spurs Make the Playoffs?
Yes -155
No +125

Will Toronto Raptors Make the Playoffs?
Yes -2000
No +1000

Will Utah Jazz Make the Playoffs?
Yes -800
No +500

Will Washington Wizards Make the Playoffs?
Yes -1000
No +600

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 16

Philadelphia @ Boston

Game 501-502
October 16, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
123.270
Boston
120.156
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 3
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 5
208 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+5); Over

Oklahoma City @ Golden State

Game 503-504
October 16, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
124.118
Golden State
133.271
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 9
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 11 1/2
224 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(+11 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Tuesday, October 16

Trend Report

Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
Philadelphia is 3-18 SU in its last 21 games when playing Boston
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Philadelphia is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 12 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston Celtics
Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Boston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games
Boston is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Boston is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Boston's last 22 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games at home
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Boston is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games when playing Philadelphia
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Boston is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Boston's last 12 games when playing at home against Philadelphia


Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Oklahoma City's last 16 games
Oklahoma City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 8 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Golden State
Oklahoma City is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing Golden State
Oklahoma City is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Oklahoma City is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Golden State's last 14 games
Golden State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games at home
Golden State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Oklahoma City
Golden State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
Golden State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Golden State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

[Can'tPickAWinner]

76ers at Celtics
Tom Wilkinson

The NBA regular season begins on Tuesday night, as the Philadelphia 76ers visit the Boston Celtics on TNT. Both teams are considered contenders in the Eastern Conference this season, so this should be an interesting opening game. The 76ers went 52-30 last season and finished third in the Atlantic Division, while the Celtics were 55-27 to finish in second place in the division. Let’s look at Tuesday’s game and NBA picks.

Date and Time: Tuesday, October 16, 2016, 8 p.m. ET
Location: TD Garden
Opening NBA Odds: Celtics -5, O/U 208.5
76ers vs. Celtics TV Coverage: TNT

The 76ers worked really hard in the offseason and it is expected that both Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz will be improved. Simmons said that he will be shooting the ball more this season than in the past but that his focus will still be on getting the ball inside. In the preseason the 76ers made a concerted effort to manufacture points with the pick and roll.

The 76ers will have Fultz in the starting lineup this season alongside Simmons, Robert Covington, Dario Saric and Joel Embiid. Fultz looked good enough in the preseason to convince head coach Brett Brown to put him in the starting lineup, although Brown did say that Fultz will come off the bench to begin third quarters. “What [starting Fultz] does is it lets me try to grow Markelle and bring him along at the start of a game. It’s five minutes — I think it’s not as dramatic as sometimes people do. So it’s five minutes. I’m doing that because I want to grow him. I want to grow us. Can that help us? And I believe that it can.”

When the 76ers have both Simmons and Fultz on the floor they have two dynamic playmakers. The combination looked good in the preseason and Philadelphia is very optimistic about the future.

On the other side, the Celtics are loaded with talent and the favorites to win the Eastern Conference this season. Not only does Boston have Kyrie Irving and Jayson Tatum, they now have a healthy Gordon Hayward. It should be noted, however, that Hayward’s minutes may be limited somewhat early in the season.

Hard Feelings

One thing we know is that Philadelphia and Boston have a definite dislike for one another, so Tuesday’s game could turn nasty. Tatum said to the media that there is some hard feelings between the two. “Definitely some animosity. We won, so they are probably a little more fired up or angry than we are but we’re excited to play. We had a lot of good matchups with them last year, a lot of great battles, especially in the playoffs. We’re excited, they’re excited.”

Key Stats

The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Boston. The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Atlantic. The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Atlantic. The Celtics are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series.

Looking at the total, the Over is 6-1 in the 76ers last 7 road games. The Under is 4-0 in the Celtics last 4 home games. The Over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Boston.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thunder at Warriors
Kyle Markus

The Golden State Warriors’ march to another NBA championship begins on Tuesday when they kick off the regular season by hosting the Oklahoma City Thunder. The icy relationship between Thunder point guard Russell Westbrook and Warriors forward Kevin Durant has thawed but both will still want to put up big numbers.

While Westbrook tends to play well in these contests the Warriors are just so much deeper that Oklahoma City will be the underdog. Golden State is the heavy favorite to win another title while the Thunder is hoping to be among the contenders in the Western Conference. Make a note that the All-Star point guard remains 'questionable' with a knee injury and if he doesn't go, OKC would be limited for sure.

The Warriors will look to begin another season of dominance in this one as they are expected to finish with the best record in the NBA. Even a solid foe in Oklahoma City will be a heavy road underdog against dynamic Golden State in NBA wagering.

This NBA basketball game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors will be held at Oracle Arena in Oakland, California at 10:30 p.m ET on Tuesday, October 16th, 2018. The game will be nationally televised on TNT.

Odds Analysis

The Warriors are listed as 11.5-point favorites to win this game at home. The double-digit spread will be a common one this season, as it has the type of overwhelming talent to take out most foes quite easily. There will be some games in which the Warriors won’t cover simply because they aren’t motivated to turn it on, but with the bright lights of the season opener they should be more than ready to go for this one.

The scoring total is listed at 224, which is high for an NBA game but not a surprise for this one as both teams are willing to push the ball and play in a run-and-gun style. In addition to the standard wagers, keep an eye out for a new feature this season, which is live betting on the NBA.

This allows gamblers to make wagers during the game. It should be a lucrative proposition once the action starts and it is easy to see how each team is looking and the pace of play. Live betting is another great way to stay involved in this matchup between the Thunder and Warriors.

Injury Report

The Warriors added to their ridiculous abundance of talent this offseason by signing DeMarcus Cousins at a bargain rate. The talented big man tore his Achilles last January and is still recovering, so he won’t be available for this matchup and could miss a good chunk of games in the regular season. The Warriors will be even better with Cousins whenever he is healthy, but the Thunder only have to deal with the dominant quartet of Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green.

Player To Watch

Paul George -- The Oklahoma City swingman spurned other offers to return to the team this offseason and will look to settle in this season alongside Westbrook. George averaged 21.9 points and 5.7 rebounds per game a season ago. The Thunder tried to roll out a trio of Westbrook, George and Carmelo Anthony last season, but Anthony never found a valuable role.

His departure should open up more shots for George, who needs to play extremely well in this one for Oklahoma City to have a shot at pulling off the upset.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 16

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (57 - 35) at BOSTON (66 - 35) - 10/16/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 60-37 ATS (+19.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 30-18 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 53-39 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 63-43 ATS (+15.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 7-6 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 10-3 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OKLAHOMA CITY (50 - 38) at GOLDEN STATE (74 - 29) - 10/16/2018, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-50 ATS (-19.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 6-2 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 6-2 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
7 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2018-19 NBA Betting Preview
Tony Mejia

The NBA is invading. Slowly but surely, they’re striving to take down the NFL, likely counting on some internal cannibalism from pro football to aid the cause. Between concussions and other injuries in addition to the rule changes being instituted to help curb the problem aggravating purists, we’re getting there.

Check out the calendar. This is the earliest the NBA will open a season in decades, beating last year by a day. They’re taking care of players by continuing to limit back-to-backs, which are down 31 percent since the initiative to trim them began in 2014 under commissioner Adam Silver. As handicappers and bettors, we can no longer count on fading a team playing for the fourth time in five nights.

The product will improve as a result, even if the lack of competitive balance is currently turning some off. Once again, Golden State is heavily favored according to Monday’s latest odds from the Westgate Superbook (@SuperBookUSA on Twitter), opening the season at 1-to-2, which implies a win probability of 66.6 percent. The 2017-18 odds were 5-to-12, which implies a win probability of 70.6 percent. Similarly, the Warriors are 5-to-13 (-325, 76.5%) were 1-to-4 (80%) to win the Western Conference, which means you were betting a dollar to win a quarter for every buck you bet on Golden State to open the season.

I can understand the public’s position in seeking out a better return if you’re betting NBA futures, but bookmakers are absolutely right to ride the best team of all-time, especially this season upon adding DeMarcus Cousins.

Last season, after dropping Game 4 of the Western Conference finals, the Rockets were still 5-to-9 (-180, 64.3%) to win the NBA title and they only slipped to 5-to-6 (-120, 54.5%) when facing a 3-2 series deficit. Even facing elimination, the fact Chris Paul’s hamstring was likely to keep him out for the remainder of the series still made the Warriors favorites. While it sounds strange, they then went out and proved why that was the right call.

Similarly, there will likely be a moment this season when the odds to make money off Golden State’s supremacy will be better than they are now. It may be a fleeting opportunity, but that’s when to strike for you to be happy when the NBA crowns a champion in 2019. The Warriors are the one team that can survive a season-ending injury to their best player. If you were to pull any other team’s top player, you couldn’t say they would still be a viable threat to win the NBA title as you could for the Dubs if they ever lost Kevin Durant or Stephen Curry.

Two is another story. The Warriors can’t win without Durant and Curry, but could still prevail if one of them is leading the charge come May and June.

Late in the season, hopefully healthy with all of their superstars in the mix, you can count on Golden State dropping a few games since guys will be resting their bodies and DeMarcus Cousins should be working the rust off and getting himself acclimated to a new system.

If you’re banking on his surly demeanor disrupting chemistry, understand that he’ll be playing on a winning team for the first time in his career and is performing damage control for his reputation by joining the Warriors at a discounted rate. He’s going to smile even if unhappy coming off the bench. Once the postseason rolls around, once he’s familiar with what his role we’ll be, Cousins will play x-factor.

The four-time All-Star center gives the Warriors the one ingredient they’ve lacked, an elite post-up threat who commands double-teams and can free up shooters. He’s a defensive liability, but Kerr can pick and choose when to utilize him. Against teams like Houston, Utah and Oklahoma City, all of which feature standout defenders in the middle, Cousins will serve as an option who can come in and make those guys work to avoid foul trouble.

The Warriors will win a fourth championship in five seasons in their final run before moving from Oakland to San Francisco. Then we’ll see who sticks around. Cousins almost certainly won’t. Durant will explore his options before deciding what suits him best, as he should. If you’ve watched him cash your Warriors’ ticket through another effort worthy of Finals MVP, hopefully you can find it in you to wish him regardless of his decision despite “ruining the game.”

Here are recommendations for other NBA futures. Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas Superbook:

Western Conference champion: If the Warriors (4/13) are going to win a championship, they’ve got to get another one of these. If you’re into throwing money down the toilet, the Thunder (16/1) is the best way to do it since they’ve surpassed the Rockets (7/2) as the team that can best defend Golden State while also being able to hang offensively. The Lakers (17/2) are enticing, but the only way we see LeBron James at the Finals this season will be if they do a special edition of his fantastic HBO talk show, “The Shop” live on location from Staples. Since I don’t believe they’ll leave the barber shop, that’s unlikely. There would be awesome value with the Jazz (50/1) if I believed Golden State can be beaten, which I don’t.

Eastern Conference champion: In honor of James’ annual haunting of East being over, the basketball gods are going to bestow a seven-game classic series between America’s all-time winningest basketball franchise and the group representing all of Canada. Book it. The Celtics (4/5) will edge the Raptors (5/2) on a clutch shot by either Kyrie Irving or Jaylen Brown, each of whom you can count on when all the chips are on the table. The 76ers (7/2) aren’t ready yet, while the Bucks (14/1), Wizards (25/1) and Pacers (25/1) will threaten but fall short. The Heat at 100/1 in Dwyane Wade’s final season is disrespectful of greatness and could be worth the lottery ticket if you’re so inclined. The chase for Jimmy Butler may not be over.

Atlantic Division champion: The regular-season is a different animal and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Raptors (2/1) defend their title since they’ll be a better team with Kawhi Leonard than DeMar DeRozan. The Celtics (5/7) and 76ers (4/1) are viable options, though I believe Philly’s free-throw shooting woes will cost them victories. The Nets (300/1) and Knicks (500/1) will continue to stink up New York city by design as they continue youth movements.

Central Division champion: The Bucks (10/11) are a slight favorite over the Pacers (5/4) since Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player in the division now that the King is wearing his crown elsewhere. The Pistons (8/1), Cavs (50/1) and Bulls (60/1) all have a chance to challenge if everything breaks right, but the value in place for young Chicago makes them interesting to me. Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen must prove they can co-exist as the driving forces, but there’s a ton of talent in place for Fred Hoiberg to work with.

Southeast Division champion: Dwight Howard’s back issues could haunt the Wizards (2/3) since the arrival of him, Jeff Green and Austin Rivers was expected to help foster a breakthrough, finally giving Scott Brooks some depth in D.C. John Wall and Bradley Beal remain one of the league’s top backcourts and should help deliver Washington’s second division title in three years after finishing one game behind the Heat (7/5) last season. Erik Spoelstra’s guiding touch does make a difference over the course of 82 games, but he’ll need a Butler-type to come in and stir things up to repeat. The Hornets (12/1) have to start fast to avoid a fire sale, making them too risky a play, while the Magic (50/1) and Hawks (100/1) will vie to stay out of last place.

Southwest Division champion: Even though they’re likely to come through, the Rockets (1/10) aren’t offering up much of a return when you consider the risk involved. If James Harden goes down, do Chris Paul, Clint Capela and Carmelo Anthony hold off the Pelicans (9/1), Spurs (12/1), Mavs (60/1) and Grizzlies (60/1)? That’s a great question, but not one I can answer with enough certainty to authorize dropping a dime to win a C note, especially since most who would read this and think to do it would likely do so to win multiple dimes. No me gusta. Anthony Davis is determined to take his next step and has enough around him to really emerge as the MVP candidate he rightfully feels he is. San Antonio should never be written off and the two teams who brought up the rear last season both figure to be significantly improved if they stay healthy.

Northwest Division champion: This is the league’s most competitive division and arguably carries that distinction throughout every league. The Jazz (8/5), Thunder (2/1), Nuggets (3/1), Timberwolves (12/1) and Trail Blazers (12/1) could all win 55 games and take the title if everything breaks right, but I do think Utah and Oklahoma City have the best two-way blends of the five. Since I’ve got OKC reaching the West finals, I’ll stick with them here to double my money.

Pacific Division champion: The Warriors (1/50) are certainly the play here, but unless Warren Buffett is out there reading this for some advice and how to bring in guaranteed coin, I’d stay away from this mortal lock. The Lakers (10/1), Clippers (80/1), Suns (200/1) and Kings (500/1) really have no shot to pry the Pacific from Golden State and if I were to play contrarian here, I’d want more than 10 times my investment since we’d be playing fantasy land. Maybe Doc Rivers can get “Heart and Hustle, Part II” out of the Clips the way he did out of the Orlando Magic back in 2000. That’s just as reasonable as thinking anyone will finish ahead of the Dubs, who would have to find new levels for complacency or awful luck with injuries not to win for the fifth straight season.

Our friends also have odds on player props. Here are my choices:

MVP: LeBron James (+400); Anthony Davis, Giannis Antetokounmpo (+450); James Harden (+700), Kevin Durant (+1000); Kawhi Leonard (+1200), Joel Embiid, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry (+1600); Ben Simmons, Kyrie Irving (+2000); Karl-Anthony Towns (+2500); DeMar DeRozan, Donovan Mitchell, Jimmy Butler (+3300); Damian Lillard (+4000); Victor Oladipo, John Wall (+5000)

Analysis: LeBron getting a 50-plus win season out of the Lakers would definitely give him a huge edge, but I love a familiar face in a new place for a more lucrative payout here. There’s no evidence that Leonard isn’t 100 percent and there’s no way he doesn’t play at an extremely high level if he’s able to remain healthy. The Raptors are going to do a lot of winning with him leading the way, so my call is that an Eastern Conference top seed will get him this regular-season award for a really nice return on 12/1.

Scoring title: Anthony Davis (+275); James Harden (+300); Giannis Antetokounmpo (+700), LeBron James (+800); Devin Booker (+1200); Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Damian Lillard, Russell Westbrook, (+1400); Joel Embiid, Kyrie Irving (+2000); DeMar DeRozan, Victor Oladipo (+2500); Kawhi Leonard (+3300)

Analysis: Greek Freak has vowed to be more aggressive this season, trading in his desire to improve his jump shot for a more aggressive approach of attacking the rim and getting to the free-throw line more often. Mike Budenholzer’s system should generate more possessions and better looks for everyone, so don’t be surprised to see Antentokounmpo’s long name atop the points-per-game leaderboard.

Rookie of the Year: Luka Doncic (+250); Deandre Ayton (+275); Kevin Knox, Collin Sexton (+700); Marvin Bagley III, Trae Young (+1000); Jaren Jackson, Jr. (+1400); Wendell Carter, Jr. (+1600); Mo Bamba, Michael Porter, Jr. (+2000); Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+2500); Harry Giles (+2800); Miles Bridges, Lonnie Walker (+3300); Mikal Bridges, Donte DiVincenzo, Zhaire Smith, Robert Williams (+5000)

Analysis: Doncic has put his excellence on display early, stuffing the stat sheet in China. Ayton and Young also enjoyed really promising starts to their careers in the preseason, producing special moments and numbers out of the gate. My money is on Ayton, but love Gilgeous-Alexander as a super sleeper, especially if Rivers is able to push the right buttons to surprisingly vie for a playoff spot. Porter, Walker, Mikal Bridges and Zhaire Smith are all out for extended periods, so stay away from those guys the way you would setting a DFS lineup where they still list injured players.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2018-19 Win Total Best Bets
By VI News

For the first time in nine seasons, LeBron James will not represent an Eastern Conference team in the NBA Finals. James is headed to the Western Conference to try and reinvigorate the slumping Lakers’ franchise that has failed to make the playoffs in each of the past five seasons. His move also means that there will likely be a new team that will represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals (sorry Cleveland).

We polled our experts for the upcoming season to ask which squads are the best season win total plays in 2018-19.

Starting with the biggest storyline in the sport, veteran handicapper Marc Lawrence makes his case to go UNDER the Lakers’ win total of 48 ½, “With the King headed to Hollywood the pressure is squarely on head coach Luke Walton this season. Failure to land Paul George in the offseason puts the weight of the franchise squarely on the broad shoulders of 33-year old James. The Cavs season win total was 53 ½ last year when James had Kevin Love to compliment him. Not the case this year.”

Meanwhile, what will James’ old squad in Cleveland do? NBA expert Alex Smart has confidence in the Cavaliers to finish OVER the total of 30 ½, “The great LeBron James is now gone from Cleveland. This may not be a bad thing in the long run for a team that was playing with no direction or specific implemented system. The coach was not actually the coach as Tyronne Lue just watched and waited for his superstar to dictate the pace of a game depending on how energized he felt on any given night. Things will change now and I’m betting the Cavaliers will not be as bad as advertised. Look for Rookie Collin Sexton and Kevin Love to stand tall.”

Elsewhere in the Eastern Conference, the underachieving Wizards try to make it back towards to the top of the Southeast division. Handicapper Joe Nelson feels Washington will continue to trend down and go UNDER 44 ½ wins, “The crowded backcourt still features Bradley Beal and John Wall though the long expected breakthrough has never come for that duo with only one Southeast division title and only three series wins in the playoffs, never advancing past the conference semifinals. 49 wins in 2016-17 was the high point for this Wizards group as even in a depleted Eastern Conference the Wizards failed to top 43 wins two of the past three seasons. Washington might remain a playoff threat after slipping into the #8 spot last season but there might not be much incentive to put together many more wins than they did in last year’s 43-39 campaign.”

Staying in the Southeast, the Heat re-signed veteran star Dwyane Wade for one last go-around as Vince Akins sees a positive season in Miami. “This is by far the best value number on the ball. Miami won 44 games last season and that was while dealing with a ton of injuries. This season, they have more continuity than any other team in the league. That helps drive regular season success, particularly early in the season. Their players are mainly on the right side of the development curve, entering key developmental years or their primes. And to put a cherry on top of this, the Eastern Conference has gotten significantly worse than last season. Similar Eastern Conference teams in Washington, Milwaukee and Indiana have totals 3, 5 and 6 wins higher than this for no clear reason.”

Below are the season win totals courtesy of Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook:

Atlanta Hawks 23 ½
Boston Celtics 57 ½
Brooklyn Nets 32 ½
Charlotte Hornets 35 ½
Chicago Bulls 27 ½
Cleveland Cavaliers 30 ½
Dallas Mavericks 34 ½
Denver Nuggets 47 ½
Detroit Pistons 37 ½
Golden State Warriors 62 ½
Houston Rockets 54 ½
Indiana Pacers 47 ½
Los Angeles Clippers 35 ½
Los Angeles Lakers 48 ½
Memphis Grizzlies 34 ½
Miami Heat 41 ½
Milwaukee Bucks 46 ½
Minnesota Timberwolves 44 ½
New Orleans Pelicans 45 ½
New York Knicks 29 ½
Oklahoma City Thunder 50 ½
Orlando Magic 31 ½
Philadelphia 76ers 54 ½
Phoenix Suns 28 ½
Portland Trail Blazers 41 ½
Sacramento Kings 25 ½
San Antonio Spurs 43 ½
Toronto Raptors 54 ½
Utah Jazz 48 ½
Washington Wizards 44 ½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Tuesday, October 16

Not a lot to go on for the first week or so, but I’ll give you the info I’ve got…….

Home side won four of last five Philly-Boston games; Celtics ousted Philly from playoffs in five games last spring. 76ers lost last three visits here, by 16-5-2 points (over 3-0).

Warriors-Thunder split four games (1-1 in each arena) since Durant bolted Oklahoma for the Bay Area; under is 9-1 in last ten series games. OKC lost four of last five visits to Oakland, with losses by 32-21-26-8 points.