Thursday 10-18-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 7


DUNKEL'S HIGHLIGHTED GAME

Denver at Arizona - Thursday October 18, 2018
The Broncos head to Arizona on Thursday night and come into the contest with a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games versus the Cardinals. Denver is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-2 1/2).

THURSDAY OCTOBER 18, 2018

Denver
@
Arizona

Game 301-302
October 18, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating: Denver
130.196
Arizona
122.723
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Denver
by 7 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Denver
by 2 1/2
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver
(-2 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 7


Thursday
Broncos (2-4) @ Cardinals (1-5)— Denver lost its last four games; they’re first team since ’66 Giants (who finished 1-12-1) to allow 270+ RY in consecutive games. Broncos are 0-2 on road, losing by 13-18 points at Ravens/Jets; since ’12 they’re 19-11-1 vs spread as road favorites, 16-9-1 vs NFC teams. Arizona is 0-3 at home, scoring 12.3 ppg (5 TD’s on 30 drives); they’ve yet to gain more than 269 yards in any game this season. Cardinals averaged 0.69 pts/drive on 39 drives that started 75+ yards from goal line, by far worst in NFL. Denver is 8-1-1 in series; last six series games were all decided by 17+ points. Broncos are 3-1 in Arizona, losing last visit here in 2010. Four of last five Bronco games, four of six Cardinal games stayed under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KUPP OUT A FEW WEEKS

Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp has been diagnosed with an MCL sprain, which is actually good news considering how it looked when he was carted off the field in Sunday’s win at Denver. Although no announcement has been made, Kupp is likely out for at least Week 7.

In Kupp’s absence, Josh Reynolds had his highest snap count of the season at 62 percent but only managed to turn two targets into one catch for minus-two yards. Kupp’s production instead went to Robert Woods, who had his best game since Week 2, grabbing seven balls for 109 yards on a day where no other Rams receiver had more than two grabs. Woods has now gone over 100 receiving yards in three of his last four games and has gone over 90 yards in four straight. In Week 7, the Rams visit the 49ers in a game where they shouldn’t have an issue putting up another big offensive number. Bettors should look to the Over for Woods’ receiving yards total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 7
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 18

DENVER at ARIZONA (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Vance Joseph 3-14-1 last 18 on board, 1-9 SU and vs. spread as visitor since LY. Denver now 1-11 SU and vs. spread on road since late 2016. Cards 3-0-1 vs. line last four in 2018. Broncos “under” 9-4 last 13, Cards “under” 7-3 last 10.
Tech Edge: Cards and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's Top OVER Teams (based on Over %):

1. Buccaneers 5-0
t2. Falcons 5-1
t2. Packers 5-1
t2. Chargers 5-1
t2. 49ers 5-1
6. Lions 4-1
t7. Bengals 4-2
t7. Colts 4-2
t7. Chiefs 4-2
t7. Jets 4-2
t7. Steelers 4-2


NFL's Top UNDER Teams (based on Under %):

t1. Cardinals 4-2
t1. Ravens 4-2
t1. Bills 4-2
t1. Cowboys 4-2
t1. Broncos 4-2
t1. Texans 4-2
t1. Raiders 4-2
t1. Seahawks 4-2
t1. Titans 4-2
10. Redskins 3-2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's Top ATS Teams (based on ATS %):

1. Chiefs 6-0 ATS
2. Lions 4-1 ATS
t3. Ravens 4-2 ATS
t3. Bengals 4-2 ATS
t3. Dolphins 4-2 ATS
t3. Browns 4-2 ATS


NFL's Worst ATS Teams (based on ATS %):

32. Texans 1-5 ATS
31. Broncos 1-4-1 ATS
t24. Packers 2-4 ATS
t24. Eagles 2-4 ATS
t24. Falcons 2-4 ATS
t24. Colts 2-4 ATS
t24. Giants 2-4 ATS
t24. Raiders 2-4 ATS
t24. 49ers 2-4 ATS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

A CASE TO FADE

It’s our favorite day as Thursday marks the official start of the football week and, as per tradition, we kick things off with a TNF prop bet (or maybe two). Denver quarterback Case Keenum’s stats over the last two games look great on paper. Two weeks ago, at the Jets, he put up 377 passing yards and followed it up the next week with 322 at home against the Rams. But those two games had something in common: The Broncos were chasing points all afternoon. Against the Jets, Keenum made 51 pass attempts and last week he made 41 — his two highest totals of the season.

The Broncos aren’t built to be a passing team. Certainly not with Keenum at QB. Their strength lies in pounding the ball with Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay, and, luckily for Denver, Arizona ranks 31st in the NFL in rushing yards against, allowing 151.2 per game. Denver is only going to a heavy passing attack when it falls behind by a lot and, as a 1-point road favorite, that’s unlikely to happen on Thursday night. We don’t expect a ton of passing attempts by Keenum so we’re going to back the Under 275.5 on his passing yards total.


A TOUCHDOWN A DAY...

Alright, one more for tonight. Arizona running back David Johnson hasn’t exactly lit up the scoreboards yet this season, but he does have six touchdowns on the season and has scored at least one in every game except Week 2. He has also been heavily involved as of late with at 65 touches over the last three weeks, with 14 of those coming in the red zone.

As for the Broncos, well, they’re the first team in NFL history to allow a running back to go for 200 yards in back-to-back games. They rank 29th in rush defense DVOA and dead last in rushing yards allowed per game at 161.3. To say the Broncos struggle against the run would be a massive understatement and we’re backing Johnson to score a touchdown at any time.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TNF - Broncos at Cardinals
Tony Mejia

Denver (-1.5, 42) at Arizona, 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN

Tampa Bay opened the week by letting go of defensive coordinator Mike Smith, who presided over the NFL’s second-worst defense and played scapegoat for a rough start compounded by the team being unable to rally against Atlanta in Jameis Winston’s first start.

A number of quarterbacks who opened the season as starters are already holding clipboards and signaling in plays instead of executing him, but desperation is sure to set in now that we’re into Week 7.

In Denver, there’s already talk that Vance Joseph could be coaching his final game given the bye week that lies ahead and the fact a loss would drop the Broncos to 7-16 under his watch. Since a dip in the team’s level on defense has played a role in the demise and that’s Joseph’s specialty, his seat has gotten uncomfortably warm. Denver has surrendered 23 or more points in all but one game this season and has allowed a running back to top the 200-yard mark against them in consecutive weeks.

Case Keenum hasn’t escaped criticism either. The quarterback brought into stabilize the position has been intercepted at least once in every game this season. There was a play last week where he fumbled after getting the ball slapped out of his hands while dropping back, picked it up and threw a pass right into a defender’s arms. Rams corner Nickell Robey-Coleman dropped the sure interception, but the play was telling given that it came on Denver’s first possession against an undefeated juggernaut that the Broncos couldn’t afford to make mistakes against if they were to have a chance.

It would be fair to say he hasn’t inspired confidence with his flippant attitude towards protecting the football, leading many to wonder whether backup Chad Kelly is ready to go yet. That question will be asked openly on Thursday night if Keenum fails to get it together in Glendale.

The Cardinals have only won once this season, which led first-year head coach Steve Wilks to address his own situation, making it clear that he understands nothing is guaranteed.

"I would say all our jobs are in jeopardy, including mine, if we don't win," Wilks said when asked if he was contemplating making a change on the offensive side of the ball since coordinator Mike McCoy is having little success despite moving on to a second quarterback.

The Cardinals rank last in yards per game, yards per play, rushing yards per game, rushing yards per play, first downs per game, third-down percentage and average time of possession. Arizona is next-to-last among 32 NFL teams in points per game, yards per play and passing yards per game.

Sam Bradford was unable to get anything accomplished as the Cards were outscored 58-6 over their first two games and ended up getting pulled in favor of rookie Josh Rosen in a winnable game against the Bears in Week 3. That didn’t accomplish much besides getting the UCLA prospect’s feet wet against one of the NFL most feared defenses at the time since Khalil Mack was holding court throughout September.

Rosen has had some nice moments since taking over full-time with proper preparation over the course of the week, but he hasn’t been able to sustain drives. Arizona has only scored more than 17 points in a single game once this season, pulling out a 28-18 victory over San Francisco to open October. That scoring output is misleading since the Cards scored on a 23-yard fumble return to really swing a tight game and then capitalized on a short field for the second time to put the game away. The only offensive score to finish off a drive of over 26 yards came on a 75-yard pass from Rosen to fellow rookie Christian Kirk when the game was still in its early stages, so there really haven’t been many sustained drives to indicate progress is being made.

Arizona scored 17 points last week in a loss at the Vikings, but six of them came courtesy of a Budda Baker scoop-and-score. Only one of the Cardinals’ first eight drives lasted more than five plays and that resulted in a field goal. Larry Fitzgerald, Sr., a prominent Minnesota sports writer, tweeted out accurately that his famous son had never gone six games without a touchdown and called Wilks out for putting the offense in “questionable hands.”

It seems pretty clear that if McCoy can’t get results out of the team at home here, he’ll be out of a job. Wilks isn’t going to continue jeopardizing his own future without a pre-emptive strike. It’s also rather obvious that Joseph has to get his defense to rise up and ensure that Arizona’s offensive issues aren’t fixed against his group, once among the league’s most feared units.

Keenum will have to protect the football or risk being replaced since falling to 2-5 would be a disaster given preseason expectations. Even last year’s team won three of their first four before dropping eight straight.

Welcome to Week 7, everyone. The intensity is being ratcheted up a few notches and somebody is likely getting fired or demoted after this.


Denver Broncos
Season win total: 7 (Over -180, Under +150)
Odds to win AFC West: 25/1 to 50/1
Odds to win AFC: 50/1 to 90/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 200/1

Arizona Cardinals
Season win total: 6 (Over -130, Under +110)
Odds to win NFC West: OFF to OFF
Odds to win NFC: 1000/1 to 1000/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 2000/1 to 2000/1

LINE MOVEMENT

The NFC West winner future has been off the board at the Westgate Superbook for a couple of weeks now with the Rams running away with it. Kansas City is in the process of doing the same in the AFC West, though the Chargers have kept hope alive. The Bronocs were just 4/1 to win the division to open the season. Arizona's NFC West odds pre-Week 1 were 12/1.

Arizona joins division mate San Francisco as the biggest longshots to win February's Super Bowl (2,000/1). The Cardinals were 100/1 to win it all prior to the season opener. Denver was 40-to-1 to win the Super Bowl entering the season.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Broncos were installed as a 2.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced, opening the week there but moving down to -1 before climbing back up to where it currently resides in the -1.5/2 range. Total numbers are available below.

Denver opened at -120 on the money line, climbed up as high as -140 at a number of shops and is now most widely available at -125. If you like the home 'dog outright, a payout on an Arizona win will get you +105 or even money, depending on the shop.

INJURY CONCERNS

Joseph and defensive coordinator Joe Woods saw the Broncos’ run defense improve from 28th to fifth last season, so finding a way to curb 2018’s regression is a must. A defense that finished third in total yards allowed last year will have to overcome the absence of LB Shane Ray (knee), corner Adam Jones (thigh) and safety Dymonte Thomas (chest), but will have the services of defensive tackle Derek Wolfe to help anchor the front. Jones’ absence was a bit of a surprise and hinders a group that lost Aqib Talib to the Rams in the offseason and hasn’t been adequately able to replace his on-field contributions and energy. Punter Marquette King was cut this week after landing on IR due to an ab strain that cut his stint short after he came on board following Jon Gruden’s decision not to bring him back to the Raiders.

Arizona’s biggest issues come up front, which isn’t a good sign for an offense already struggling to make inroads. Guard Justin Pugh hopes to play through a hand injury and will test it out pre-game, which is an improvement from the ‘doubtful’ distinction he carried but doesn’t mean the Cards can count on him just yet. With fellow guard Mike Iupati (back) already ruled out, Arizona could be forced to rely on backups throughout the interior line since they already lost projected starting center AQ Shipley this preseason. The Cardinals will be facing depth issues against a Denver defensive front that is capable of wearing an offensive line down. While Patrick Peterson can still be counted on as a shutdown corner despite rumors he’s available with the team likely rebuilding on the run, there are still concerns in the secondary. Safety Tre Boston (ribs) has been ruled out while corner Jamar Taylor will also be a game-time call.

TOTAL TALK

The number here opened at 40 at many shops but has been steadily bet up to it's current spot. Bovada went up to 43 on Thursday morning while most had the number between 41.5 and 42.5.

The 'under' prevailed in Arizona's first four games this season but has been defeated in the last two since last week's 27-17 loss crept just over the 43.5 the total closed at. Denver became the first team to hold L.A. below 30 points this season to deliver the under on Sunday. The low-side is 4-2 in Broncos' games in 2018 despite their issues stopping the run. The under was 7-8-1 in Denver games last season but went 9-7 in games involving Arizona.

RECENT MEETINGS (Denver 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS last 5; OVER 5-0)

10/5/14 Denver 41-20 vs. Arizona (DEN -7.5, 48)
12/12/10 Arizona 43-13 vs. Denver (AZ +4, 44)
12/17/06 Denver 37-20 at Arizona (DEN -2.5, 44)
12/29/02 Denver 37-7 vs. Arizona (DEN -13.5, 42.5)
9/23/01 Denver 38-17 at Arizona (DEN -8.5, 45)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 7
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

College Football Week 7 Results
WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 41-16
Against the Spread 28-29

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 31-26
Against the Spread 32-25

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 15-42

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Tennessee (+15.5, ML + ) at Auburn, 30-24
Michigan State (+13.5, ML +400) at Penn State, 21-17
Liberty (+11, ML +330) vs. Troy, 22-16
Charlotte (+9.5, ML +300) vs. Western Kentucky, 40-14
Kansas State (+8.5, ML + ) vs. Oklahoma State, 31-12

The largest favorites to cover
Alabama (-28) vs. Missouri, 39-10
South Alabama (-27.5) vs. Alabama State, 45-7
Utah State (-27) vs. UNLV, 59-28
Maryland (-24) vs. Rutgers, 34-7

Top 25 Notes

-- It was a topsy-turvy day in the Top 25 on Saturday, particularly the Top 10. Georgia was the biggest domino to fall, as they were routed at LSU by a 36-16 score. West Virginia also fumbled away their chance, and subsequently the Big 12's chance, of likely seeing a spot in the four-team playoff at season's end with their ugly 30-14 setback at Iowa State. The Pac-12 is also officially out of the playoff mix after Washington slipped up in overtime at Oregon, 30-27. Penn State joined those teams in the Loser Lounge with 21-17 setback at home against Michigan State, their second consecutive loss in Happy Valley.

-- Colorado headed to USC without a loss, but they came home with their first L and a non-cover, as the Trojans finally figured out a way to win a big game at home. The Trojans were helped out by the fact Heisman hopeful Laviska Shenault Jr. (foot) suffered an injury in the game. The Buffaloes will try to rebound next week, but a trip to Washington is not what the doctor ordered to cure their ills.

-- If you hear anyone tell you that 'The U' is back, point them to the box score of today's Miami (Fla.)-Virginia game. The Hurricanes stumbled in Charlottesville, a play the 1980's version of the Hurricanes would never have dreamt of losing. Miami has now failed to cover in back-to-back games for the first time this season, and they probably should've lost last week against rival Florida State if the Seminoles could get out of their own way.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- Duke took advantage of several miscues in cooling off Georgia Tech, 28-14. The Blue Devils stopped a two-game non-cover streak while hitting the 'under' in consecutive games for the first time this season. ... Pittsburgh nearly added Notre Dame to the upset list, but the Irish were able to stave off the rival Panthers by a 19-14 score in South Bend. However, Pitt easily covered a 22-point number, just their second cover in six tries this season. ... Virginia Tech stunned North Carolina by a 22-19 score, so hopefully you didn't have the Tar Heels on the moneyline (see bad beats below).

-- Speaking of bad beats, Northwestern nearly gave Nebraska its first victory of the season. Instead, the Wildcats were able to erase a 14-point late deficit to force overtime. The Cornhuskers turned it over in OT, and the Wildcats picked up the game-winning field for a push at some shops. ... Michigan routed Wisconsin 38-13 in the Big House, uninviting the Badgers to the playoff party, if they weren't already out. The Wolverines improved to 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in five games at home this season, and the 'over' has hit in four in a row in Ann Arbor.

-- Texas wasn't particularly impressive at home, but they managed to squeak by Baylor by a 23-17 count in Austin. The Bears entered the game 1-4-1 ATS in their first six games, and the 'under' was just their second after a 5-1 'over' start. ... The upsets actually started Thursday night in Fort Worth, as Texas Tech earned a much-needed win, 17-14, over Texas Christian. After getting routed by Ole Miss in the opener the Red Raiders have posted a 4-1 ATS mark in the past five outings.

-- UCLA provided Chip Kelly with his first victory since returning to college football, a resounding 37-7 win at California that even QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson's dad won't have a problem with. In Friday's action, Utah had no hangover following their win in Palo Alto last week as they crushed Arizona by a 42-10 count. The Utes have posted covers in consecutive games for the first time this season after a 1-3 ATS start.

-- If you had Arkansas on the mneyline against Mississippi, condolences. If you had the 'under' (66.5) in this game, the same. It was a double bad beat late. See below. ... Texas A&M held on for the 26-23 win at South Carolina, and they were able to nail down the cover, too, at least at most shops. The Aggies are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS through seven contests heading into a bye week.

Bad Beats

-- If you had Nebraska on the moneyline (+125), it was an ugly finish. The Cornhuskers were leading 28-14 with 13:40 to go, and 31-21 with 5:41 remaining in regulation. However, the Wildcats scored a touchdown with :12 remaining in regulation to force overtime. The Huskers were picked off on the first possession of the extra session, and Northwestern booted the game-winning field on their end of OT. The late touchdown also sunk those holding 'under' (59) tickets.

-- 'Under' (57) bettors were feeling pretty good about themselves in the Marshall-Old Dominion game, as there were just 31 points on the board heading to the fourth quarter. Marshall scored a TD with 7:08 to go to make it 28-13, but 17 points were still needed for a losing ticket. The teams exchanged touchdowns over the next 4:03, making it Herd 35-20 with 3:05 to go. Herd RB Tyler King ripped off the 65-yard touchdown to make it 35-20, and he added a 46-yard scoring run with 1:53 to go in regulation, killing 'under' bettors in the process.

-- It's always the 'under' (47.5) bets, isn't it? Wisconsin-Michigan had a total of 28 points on the board heading to the fourth quarter. Michigan took a 31-7 lead with 9:55 left in regulation, and you knew what was coming next if you liked the under. Michigan scored with 5:16 to go, making it 38-7 and then the Badgers ruined the day with a meaningless touchdown at 3:47 to go, making it 38-13.

-- If you had the nerve to take Arkansas on the moneyline, it was an awful beating at the end of regulation. The Hogs were up by as many as 17 at one point, and by nine with 2:33 to go at 33-24 in the third quarter. With 57 points on the board with 4:15 to play, an 'under' (66.5) bet was surely safe, right? Well, Arkansas allowed a touchdown but still lead 33-31. Moneyline - good. Under - good. However, Ole Miss ruined the day for everyone with 5-yard touchdown with just :42 remaining. Awful.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GEORGIA ST (2 - 4) at ARKANSAS ST (3 - 3) - 10/18/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS ST is 1-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 1-0 straight up against GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STANFORD (4 - 2) at ARIZONA ST (3 - 3) - 10/18/2018, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA ST is 93-66 ATS (+20.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
ARIZONA ST is 93-66 ATS (+20.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
ARIZONA ST is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
ARIZONA ST is 93-66 ATS (+20.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ARIZONA ST is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in home games in October games since 1992.
ARIZONA ST is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
STANFORD is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 8

Trend Report

Thursday, October 18

Georgia State @ Arkansas State
Georgia State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia State's last 6 games on the road
Georgia State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road

Arkansas State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arkansas State's last 5 games
Arkansas State is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games at home

Stanford @ Arizona State
Stanford
Stanford is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Stanford's last 6 games when playing Arizona State

Arizona State
Arizona State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Arizona State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 8

Thursday, October 18

Georgia State @ Arkansas St

Game 303-304
October 18, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia State
66.718
Arkansas St
83.218
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arkansas St
by 16 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arkansas St
by 14 1/2
57
Dunkel Pick:
Arkansas St
(-14 1/2); Under

Stanford @ Arizona State

Game 305-306
October 18, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Stanford
95.906
Arizona State
86.243
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Stanford
by 9 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Stanford
by 2 1/2
56
Dunkel Pick:
Stanford
(-2 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 8

Thursday’s games
Georgia State lost four of its last five games; they’re 0-2-1 as road underdogs this year, losing by 34-37-17 points on foreign soil. Before this year, Panthers had been 19-5-1 vs spread as road dogs- they allowed 337 rushing yards in 37-20 loss at Troy LW. Under Anderson, Arkansas State is 13-8 as home favorites, 0-1 this year- they lost last two games, scoring 21-9 points. Last four ASU games stayed under the total. ASU won its last four games with Georgia State, winning 48-34/35-33 in last two meetings played here. Sun Belt home favorites are 3-3.

Stanford won five of last six games with Arizona State, but lost last trip to desert 26-10 (-3). Cardinal gave up 109 points in last three games, losing 38-17/40-21 in last two; they were out rushed 494-97 in last two games. Stanford is 5-3 in last eight games as road favorites, 1-0 this year- their last three games went over. Arizona St lost three of last four games, with all three losses by 7 points; Sun Devils covered six of last eight games as home underdogs. Pac-12 home underdogs are 4-6 vs spread so far this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 8
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 18

GEORGIA STATE at ARKANSAS STATE...Ark State 1-7 last 8, 2-9 vs. line last 11 on board. GSU 0-3 TY in once-feared road dog role, had been 19-6 in role entering 2018.
Slight to Georgia State, based on team trends.


STANFORD at ARIZONA STATE...Tree 1-6 vs. line as visitor since last season, though was 3-0 at neutral sites in 2017. Herm 3-0 vs. line at home this season.
Slight to Arizona State, based on team trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stanford at Arizona State
Joe Nelson

This week’s Thursday night game is a Pac-12 clash between Stanford and Arizona State. While the conference may have already played its way out of the national playoff hunt, both division races are still up for grabs and these teams are still viable contenders to play for the championship in December. Here is a look at the Thursday night game to start the next week of college football.

Match-up: Stanford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils
Venue: At Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Arizona
Time/TV: Thursday, October 18, 9:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: Stanford -2½, Over/Under 56
Last Meeting: 2017, at Stanford (-17) 34, Arizona State 24

Stanford was expected by many to be not just a Pac-12 contender, but a serious threat to make a run at a spot in the College Football Playoff. The season started out impressively with wins over San Diego State and USC, holding those respectable foes to a combined 13 points in home victories. Stanford then seemed to perhaps be a team of destiny with an improbable comeback to win in overtime at Oregon as well.

In a huge game at Notre Dame in a matchup of teams in the top 10 of the polls in late September, the Cardinal were blown out with a 38-17 defeat. The next week playing without star running back Bryce Love, Stanford fared just as poorly back at home with a 40-21 loss to Utah. Stanford is still 2-1 in Pac-12 play, but has a difficult game remaining at Washington in a few weeks as another good but mildly disappointing season for David Shaw appears to be underway.

Last year, Stanford won the Pac-12 North and lost a competitive Pac-12 Championship game with USC before losing in a tight Alamo Bowl against TCU. The 9-5 finish matched the most losses for Shaw since he took over in 2011, but the team had high hopes for 2018 with Love returning and K.J. Costello showing great promise after taking over at quarterback midway through the 2017 season.

Shaw has an impressive track record currently with a 77-24 record at Stanford halfway through his eighth season, going 51-15 in Pac-12 play while winning five division titles and three conference championships. Shaw has two Rose Bowl wins as well, but the Cardinal have lost at least two games in every season to never seriously threaten in the national picture and this year’s team will be no different already with two defeats.

Last year’s team had the worst statistical defense that Shaw has fielded and the defense so far this season has struggled, allowing 400 yards per game despite only surrendering 22 points per game. Opponents have rushed for 164 yards per game against Stanford while the Cardinal has shockingly been one of the worst rushing offenses in the nation, averaging 86 yards per game on the ground with 3.1 yards per rush.

Love finished second in the Heisman voting last season with 2,118 rushing yards, 19 touchdowns and 8.1 yards per rush. He has missed two games this season and has barely average half of last season’s per carry average posting 4.3 yards per rush and only 327 total yards at this point in the season for a very disappointing senior campaign. He is a question mark this week with the lingering ankle injury.

Costello didn’t play the full season last year, but he already has thrown more interceptions and taken more sacks in his six starts this season for Stanford. He has thrown for 12 touchdowns on nearly 8.9 yards per attempt and his completion rate is up by nearly four percent as the offense has been effective in the passing game with a massive receiving corps led by JJ Arcega-Whiteside.

Herm Edwards was considered a curious hire at Arizona State following the departure of Todd Graham after six seasons. Graham was famously poached from Pittsburgh after just one season and was fairly successful for the Sun Devils making a bowl game in five of six years and winning the Pac-12 South in 2013. Edwards finished 20 games below .500 as a NFL head coach and had never been a head coach at the college level, actually only an assistant for three years as a position coach at San Jose State in the late ‘80s. He had also not been on the sidelines at all in a decade, emerging as a prominent TV personality on ESPN’s NFL coverage.

The Sun Devils made an early splash this season with a home upset of Michigan State, but the Sun Devils are just 3-3 on the season including 1-2 in Pac-12 play. All three losses have come on the road and all were decided by just seven points for competitive games. The remaining schedule for Arizona State is difficult still with USC, Utah, and Oregon on the schedule with two of those three games on the road as this is a critical home date if the Sun Devils are to make a bowl game.

Manny Wilkins has been a productive quarterback for the Sun Devils with nearly 1,500 yards passing and 11 touchdowns with only one interception so far this season. Arizona State has also been one of the better rushing teams in the conference led by Eno Benjamin who has 715 rushing yards on 5.7 yards per carry, currently ninth nationally and second in the Pac-12 in rushing yards.

Arizona State has held foes to just 3.8 yards per rush this season while the pass defense has posted average results with numbers just slightly better than Stanford has posted, through a lesser overall schedule so far. The scoring defense numbers are also nearly identical for these teams and a close game should be expected under the lights in Thursday’s national TV game, coinciding with a Thursday night NFL game 22 miles northwest in Glendale.

Last season: These teams met in late September last season with matching 2-2 records. Arizona State had just defeated Oregon to recover from narrow losses to San Diego State and Texas Tech. Stanford won its opener last season in Australia but then lost to USC and San Diego State in road games before blasting UCLA ahead of this game. It was a back-and-forth game early with the teams trading scores until halftime with a 24-17 edge for the Cardinal as a heavy favorite. Bryce Love broke a 59-yard run in the third quarter but it was a one-score game in the final minutes until a late Stanford field goal. Stanford had a 504-409 yardage edge and a 2-1 edge in turnovers. Love emerged as a serious Heisman threat with 301 yards and three touchdowns, eclipsing 1,000 yards for the season in just his fifth game.

Historical Trends:

Arizona State has a 17-12 S/U edge since 1981 in this series with a 6-3 ATS mark since 2006, though Stanford has won S/U in five of the last six meetings.

Arizona State won the last home meeting in 2014 as a home underdog 26-10, while going 11-4 S/U and 9-6 ATS in the home meetings of this series since 1982.

The Sun Devils are on a 13-5 ATS run as a home underdog since 2009, winning outright in six of nine instances since 2016.

Arizona State is 12-4 S/U and ATS overall at home since 2016.

Stanford is 27-13 S/U and 22-17-1 ATS in road games under Shaw since 2011, going 16-13-1 ATS as a road favorite in that span. Since the start of last season, Stanford is just 1-5-1 ATS in road games.