Saturday 10-20-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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The Northwestern Wildcats are saddled with one of the worst running games in all of Division I – but things might turn around for them this Saturday as they take on the host Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The Wildcats enter the weekend averaging a dismal 69.1 rushing yards per game on 2.2 yards per carry; both of those figures rank them 128th out of 129 Division I teams. But while the Wildcats are happy to lean on a passing game that produces more than 320 yards per contest, they might feel compelled to run more against a Scarlet Knights team allowing an incredible 237.7 yards per game (5.92 YPC).

Northwestern is a 20.5-point favorite with a game total of 49, putting Rutgers' team total in the 14-to-15-point range. If the Wildcats can made headway on the ground, they could control this one from start to finish, making the under on the Scarlet Knights' total a strong option.

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A nightmare season has taken another rough turn for Khalil Tate. The Arizona Wildcats quarterback will miss this Saturday's Pac-12 encounter with UCLA as he recovers from a left ankle injury he initially suffered in Week 2. Tate, who compiled more than 1,400 rushing yards last season, has been limited to a paltry 112 yards on 46 attempts in 2018 due to the balky ankle, which knocked him out of last Friday's game against Utah after just two series. Tate's passing has taken a hit this season as well; he has completed just 53.4 percent of his attempts with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions.

The Bruins are favored by a touchdown against the visiting Wildcats, and will now face inexperienced Rhett Rodriguez under center. UCLA has covered six of the last seven games between the teams, and are a good bet to extend that run Saturday.

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The Charlotte 49ers have lost their starting quarterback for the remainder of the season. Freshman Chris Reynolds will miss the rest of the 2018 campaign after underdoing surgery on his ankle, which he injured in the third quarter of Saturday's game against Western Kentucky. It's a significant development for the 49ers, with Reynolds having completed better than 63 percent of his passes for 1,181 yards with six TDs and two INTs. That success rate helped lead Charlotte to the second-best time of possession average in the country at just under 37 minutes per game.

Reynolds' ability to move the chains will be missed greatly by the 49ers, who 17.5-point underdogs at Middle Tennessee State. Bettors should downgrade the Charlotte offense, which produced just 15 touchdowns in 27 red-zone trips, and take the under on the team total, which sits at around 16 points.

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The Alabama Crimson Tide are expecting to have quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in the lineup for Saturday's encounter with Tennessee. Tagovailoa suffered a knee injury in last weekend's one-sided win over Missouri, but head coach Nick Saban said after the game that his prized pass-thrower could have returned if necessary and is expected to practice all week. Tagovailoa, who remains the overwhelming -200 favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, threw for 265 yards and three scores against the Tigers and remains perfect on the season with 21 TD passes against zero interceptions.

Alabama is a whopping 29-point road favorite against the Volunteers. Tagovailoa will likely see only three quarters of action – if that – before ceding to Jalen Hurts. That's a downgrade – and given how Tennessee fared last week, it might be a struggle for the Crimson Tide to cover such a big spread on the road with their No. 1 QB not at 100 percent.

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BOWMAN NOT A “FULL GO”

Alan Bowman is making progress in his recovery from a collapsed lung, but the Texas Tech quarterback might not be ready to return to action this weekend against the visiting Kansas Jayhawks. Red Raiders head coach Kliff Kingsbury acknowledged Tuesday that Bowman is "easing his way back in," but wouldn't offer a timetable for the QB's return. Bowman suffered the injury in Texas Tech's 42-34 loss to West Virginia on Sept. 29; the freshman has had a sensational season to date, passing for nearly 1,700 yards with 11 touchdown passes and just three interceptions.

Jett Duffey or McLane Starter will start in Bowman's place against the Jayhawks; Carter himself is banged up, while Duffey has thrown twice as many INTs (4) as TDs (2). The Red Raiders are -18.5 vs. Kansas but are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games and could be a stretch to cover against a Jayhawks team that leads the nation in turnover differential (+13).

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Scott Frost couldn't have imagined going into the back half of October still looking for his first win as head coach of the Nebraska Cornhuskers. And yet, here he is, carrying a six-game losing streak into Saturday's home date with Minnesota. An inconsistent offense (23.3 ppg) and dismal defense (38.3) have been factors, but the Cornhuskers aren't doing themselves any favors by leading the country in penalty yards per game (96) while ranking second-last in infractions per contest (10.17). That could prove to be a problem against a Golden Gophers team ranked 20th in fewest penalty yards per game (43.17).

Lines don't often account for things like discipline – and it's clear that Minnesota is way ahead in that category, providing the kind of field-position advantage that should produce tangible results on the scoreboard. With Nebraska owning a 61-24 edge in penalty flags, bettors should consider taking the Golden Gophers +3.5 to extend Frost's misery.

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Who's next? That's what Alabama fans and bettors are no doubt thinking after the Crimson Tide curb stomped Missouri 39-10 last week, keeping the Tigers scoreless over the final three quarters. The Tennessee Volunteers are next on the list – and they'll need to be a lot better in their own red zone if they hope to cover the four-TD spread. Tennessee has allowed points on every opposing trip to the red zone, one of only five teams in that group – and while the Tide's red-zone success rate is a modest 82.5 percent, they've made more journeys into the opposing red zone (40) than any other team in the country.

Alabama's team total sits at 43 as of Wednesday; if it remains in this neighborhood, we recommend taking the over. The Tide have scored fewer than that just once this season and should have no trouble converting their red-zone chances Saturday.

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Preview: Tulsa at Arkansas


The news from the injury front was mostly good for Arkansas as sophomore quarterback Ty Storey and leading rusher Rakeem Boyd appear ready to go when the Razorbacks host Tulsa on Saturday. Storey (head, ribs) and Boyd (back) left last week's 37-33 loss to Ole Miss -- Arkansas' sixth straight setback -- but second-leading rusher Devwah Whaley will have surgery and is expected to miss at least two weeks after sustaining an ankle injury against the Rebels.

"He's a player," left tackle Colton Jackson told reporters about Storey. "If you've got a quarterback that can take those licks though some might be unnecessary that just runs out of the pocket, scrambles and tries to get those extra yards. Man, you love a quarterback like that." Arkansas, which is paying Tulsa $1.45 million to play, must win its final five games to guarantee bowl eligibility after allowing a game-losing 97-yard touchdown drive to Ole Miss in the final 2 minutes, 2 seconds. The Golden Hurricane have dropped five straight after a 25-24 loss to No. 20 South Florida last week, blowing a 14-point lead in the last 7:10. “We just have to stay together,'' redshirt freshman quarterback Seth Boomer told reporters. "Losing sucks and I’m tired of it, but as long as we stay together that’s the most important thing.”

TV: Noon ET, SEC Network. LINE: Arkansas -7

ABOUT TULSA (1-5): Boomer is 19-of-52 for 306 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the last two games after sophomore Luke Skipper completed 58.6 percent of his passes with four TDs and six picks in the first four contests. The Golden Hurricane are 32nd in the country at 209 rushing yards per game thanks to a two-pronged attack from sophomores Shamari Brooks (475 yards, six TDs) and Corey Taylor II (411, four). The defense, led by junior linebacker Cooper Edmiston (team highs of three interceptions and 54 tackles), is allowing 398.5 yards per game after yielding an average of 587.5 over the first six contests in 2017.

ABOUT ARKANSAS (1-6): Storey took a helmet-to-helmet hit from Ole Miss safety Vernon Dasher, who was ejected, and also absorbed a shot to the ribs before leaving in the second quarter. Boyd, a sophomore, had already racked up a career-high 109 yards on seven carries and also left before halftime. Tight end Cheyenne O'Grady has three touchdown receptions in the last three games after missing the first two contests because of suspension and playing sparingly in the next two, while wide receiver La'Michael Pettway caught a TD pass versus Ole Miss for his team-high fourth of the season.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Razorbacks junior LB De'Jon Harris leads the SEC with 77 tackles after recording 13 last week.

2. Tulsa, which has the smallest enrollment among FBS schools at 3,343 (Arkansas 27,558), is 22nd nationally against the pass at 184 yards per game but 114th among the 129 FBS teams in rushing defense at 214.5.

3. Arkansas leads the series 54-15-3 and has won 18 straight meetings, including 19-15 in 2012 in the last encounter.

PREDICTION: Arkansas 31, Tulsa 24

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Preview: Maryland at Iowa


Nate Stanley enjoyed a historic outing in No. 22 Iowa’s 42-16 thrashing of Indiana last week as the Hawkeyes piled up over 400 yards of total offense for a fourth consecutive week. Coach Kirk Ferentz likes the club's maturation over a season ago when they averaged only 329 yards, but the Hawkeyes will have to be sharp when they host an opportunistic Maryland team this Saturday.


“I just think we're a little bit more experienced than we were. We were really inexperienced last year at the receiver position, tight end position, quarterback position,” Ferentz said during his weekly press conference. Stanley threw for 320 yards and six touchdowns against the Hoosiers - tying for the second most TD passes in school history - and has 14 touchdowns over the past four games to tie Chuck Long (1985) for the most ever over a four-game stretch. Tight ends Noah Fant (four catches, 102 yards, one TD) and T.J. Hokenson (4-107-2) combined for eight receptions, 209 yards and three TDs, while Toren Young added 96 yards rushing on 19 carries. Maryland picked off five passes, yielded only 179 yards of total offense and was just 43 seconds shy of its first shutout since 2013 in last week's 34-7 rout over Rutgers.
TV: Noon ET, ESPN2. LINE: Iowa -10.

ABOUT MARYLAND (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten): Kasim Hill (8-for-17, 76 yards) threw three touchdown passes against the Scarlet Knights and senior Ty Johnson ran for 121 of his 132 yards in the first half to improve his career total to 2,564 yards - fourth most in school history. The Terrapins are currently fifth in the country and lead the Big Ten in turnover margin, at plus-1.5 per game, and safety Darnell Savage Jr., who had two interceptions last week, is tied for the FBS lead with four. “I’m like a cheerleader for our defense,” interim coach Matt Canada said after the win. “They're around the football and when you're around the football, good things happen.”

ABOUT IOWA (5-1, 2-1): Hockenson and Fant rank first and second, respectively, on the team in receptions and have combined for 692 receiving yards on 45 catches, including nine receiving touchdowns. Maryland relies heavily on the running game (245.2 yards per game), but Iowa's defense allows 2.7 yards per carry - fifth in the country - and is one of four defenses to have allowed only four rushing touchdowns (Alabama, Auburn, North Carolina State). Wide receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette is averaging 37.4 yards on his five kick returns, which would lead the nation if he had enough returns to qualify.


EXTRA POINTS

1. The teams split their first two meetings all-time with the Hawkeyes coming out on top the last time, 31-15 at home in 2015.

2. The five interceptions last week were Maryland's most since a seven-pick performance against Duke in 1998.

3. Iowa is one win from becoming bowl-eligible for the 17th time in the last 18 seasons.

PREDICTION: Iowa 41, Maryland 17

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CAPPERS ACCESS
(CFB)
Michigan St
Minnesota
Ohio St
UCLA

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1. NSA(The Legend) CFB - Ohio -16.5
2. Vegas Line Crushers CFB - Hawaii -3
3. VegasSI.com CFB - Utah -7
4. SportsAction365.com CFB - LSU -7
5. Gameday Network CFB - Hawaii -3
6. PointSpreadReport.com CFB - Clemson under 58
7. InsiderSportsAction.com CFB - Kent St +5
8. Lou Panelli CFB - SMU under 56
9. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino CFB - Old Dominion +4
10. VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club CFB - Toledo over 61
11. William E. Stockton CFB - Connecticut +32.5
12. Vincent Pioli CFB - Purdue over 69
13. Steve "Scoop" Kendall CFB - Connecticut +32.5
14. SCORE CFB - Middle Tenn St -16.5
15. East Coast Line Movers CFB - Temple -3.5
16. Tony Campone CFB - Utah -7
17. Chicago Sports Group CFB - Oregon St +7.5
18. Hollywood Sportsline CFB - Kentucky -11
19. VIP Action CFB - Kentucky -11
20. South Beach Sports CFB - UL Monroe -10.5
21. Las Vegas Sports Commission CFB - UL Monroe -10.5
22. NY Players Club CFB - Duke -7
23. Fred Callahan CFB - Oregon +3
24. Las Vegas Private CEO Club CFB - California -7.5
25. Michigan Sports CFB - Houston U under 59.5
26. National Consensus Report CFB - Middle Tenn St -16.5