Service Plays Saturday 10/27/18

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Wunderdog

CFB

Boise State/Air Force 58 Under

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Phil Steele from ESPN CFB Best Bets

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Texas -3.5
Houston -7.5
Arkansas +1.5
Boston College +3.5
Florida +6.5
Oregon -9.5
Charlotte +7

26-20-1 ATS (last week: 2-3)

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Scott Van Pelt

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UCLA +10.5 (FRI)
Pitt +2.5
Cal +12
FSU +17
Okla St +3
Arizona +9.5
Miss St -2
Missouri -7
Wis/NW Over 52.5

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Indian Cowboy

YTD reg season thru 10/25: 25-16, +9.9 units

7-Unit Play. #184. Take Houston -7.5 over South Florida (Saturday @ 3:30pm est)

Houston is going to likely win this game here and has a great shot to thump South Florida. This is a team that has won 4 straight and will get up for this game as this program is desperate for big wins as they have not played any big named schools since Arizona when they beat them 45-18 - the other being a loss to Texas Tech in a shootout. This team needs big wins on its resume and South Florida is its chance. Houston has the 3rd best offense in America with the 9th best passing attack and South Florida is undefeated at the moment but this is the 120th best rush defense and 88th overall defense. This team was not impressive against UMass, Connecticut and having such a poor rush defense is not going to bode well along teh lines here. Look for Houston to just pound the ball and simply score at will here as they will look to run up the score big time here at home against an "undefeated" team.

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Stephen Nover

3* SEC-GOY

Georgia -6.5

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Goodfella

3* Texas a&m +3

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Ben Burns

3* PAC -12 GOM

Stanford -3

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DOC SPORTS

2 Unit Play. Take #122 Colorado State Rams -1.5 over Wyoming Cowboys (10p.m., Friday, October 26 CBSSN) We have gone against Wyoming most of the season and will continue to fade them again on Friday. They have lost 4 straight games, and the same thing happens keeps happing. Their offense is terrible, and if Colorado State does not beat themselves with turnovers they will win this game by double digits. The Rams have had an up-and-down season, but they close out the season with 4 winnable games and have an outside chance to reach a bowl game. Wyoming is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. The offense of the Rams will allow them to win this border battle.

4 Unit Play. Take #133 Duke Blue Devils -2.5 over Pittsburgh Panthers (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 27 ACCN) Duke is the much better defensive team in this game as we will gladly lay this small amount of points in this game against Pittsburgh. The Panthers can get up for playing marquee games, but I still expect some fallout from their tough loss to Notre Dame last time out. A win by Duke gets them bowl eligible and they are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite in a road game.

3 Unit Play. Take #139 Wisconsin Badgers -4.5 over Northwestern Wildcats (12p.m., Saturday, October 27 FOX) The Badgers are going to win the Big 10 Western Division, and the only game I see them losing in the regular season is at Penn State. Northwestern does not have the weapons on either side of the football to threaten Wisconsin's quarterback or their secondary. All of Wisconsin's 5 victories have come over today's posted number. Wisconsin is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games. Northwestern is 1-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 home games.

2 Unit Play. Take #160 Nevada Wolf Pack (+125 Money Line) over San Diego State Aztecs (10:30p.m., Saturday, October 27 ESPN U) If you cannot play a money line just play Nevada point spread. Nevada is much more explosive on offense and I just do not see San Diego State being able to control the tempo on this game for 60 minutes. Nevada will win this game straight-up and thus that is why we are taking the money line in this contest.

4 Unit Play. Take #162 Stanford Cardinal -3 over Washington State Cougars (7p.m., Saturday, October 27 PAC-12N) Washington State is just not the same team on the road as they are when they play in Pullman. This will not be a blowout, but Stanford should be able to control the game if they can get a lead in the first half. Stanford is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Washington State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on grass.

3 Unit Play. Take #165 Washington Huskies -11.5 over California Golden Bears (6:30p.m., Saturday, October 27 FS1) The Golden Bears have not been the same team during conference play sitting at just 1-3 with their only victory coming against Oregon State. Washington beat Cal by 31 points last year. It will be closer than that, but the Huskies will pull away and win it by double digits. Washington is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against Cal (4-0 ATS in Berkley).

3 Unit Play. Take #178 South Carolina Gamecocks -7.5 over Tennessee Volunteers (7:30p.m., Saturday, October 27 SECN) This is a must win game for the Gamecocks to reach a bowl game since they play only 11 games this season. Carolina has covered the spread 3 straight times against Tennessee. All of the Volunteers 4 losses this season have been double digit blowouts and we see this one going the same was as well.

6 Unit Play. Take #184 Houston Cougars -7.5 over USF Bulls (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 27 ABC) TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAY OF THE WEEK Houston has beaten USF three straight times, and win No. 4 will come by double digits on Saturday. The Bulls are undefeated and ranked yet enter as a sizable underdog in this game. That is a great indicator that we are on the right side with the Cougars. USF has played a very weak schedule thus far, and they will struggle to run the football against Houston in this game. USF is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 AAC games. Houston is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 AAC games.

4 Unit Play. Take #189 Florida International Golden Panthers -3.5 over WKU Hilltoppers (7:30p.m., Saturday, October 27 Bein Sports)

3 Unit Play. Take #206 Florida State Seminoles +17 over Clemson Tigers (12p.m., Saturday, October 27 ABC) Just too many points to be giving on the road with an early start. The Seminoles have played better of late and should be 4-0 in their last 4 games if not for a comeback by Miami to beat them 28-27. The game last year was much closer than what the final score would indicate and I see this as a 10-point victory for Clemson.

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Vernon Croy

6 Unit Play. Take #167 Georgia -6.5 over Florida (Saturday, October 27th at 3:30 PM ET)

Take Georgia ATS as my 6-Unit CFB Smash for Saturday. This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and I have the Bulldogs winning this game by 10+ points Saturday. This is a huge bounce back game for Georgia who has also had the extra week to prepare for this game so they will be ready. The Bulldogs are the superior team on both sides of the ball and they will not turn the ball over 4 times like they did against LSU which cost them that game. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a loss. The favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games played between these two teams and the Bulldogs have allowed just 14.8 ppg over their last 3 games played on a grass field. Play Georgia ATS as we move to 17-6 with my top football picks rated 6-Units or higher thi

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Scott Spreitzer

3-Unit Play: Take 160 Nevada +2.5 over San Diego St. (10:30 p.m., Sat., Oct. 27)

I'm taking the points with Nevada on Saturday night. SDSU has been escaping and their close calls are likely to catch up with them on the road against an improved Nevada squad. The Aztecs last five wins came by a grand total of just 23 points, including a 3 point win as a 25-point favorite over San Jose State last week. The offense is badly banged-up and scored just 16 points in the win over the Spartans, a defense that had allowed 41.3 ppg and ranked 105th in total yards allowed per game on the season. Nevada QB Ty Gangi has connected on better than 72% of his passes in 2 of his last 3 games with a 7 to 2 TD-INT ratio. Gangi is mobile, making SDSU's job even more difficult on defense. But the bottom line i an Aztec offense that has been completely reliant on the defense. We're betting the 5 week escape act comes to an end in Reno. I'm taking the points with Nevada. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

4-Unit Play: Take 176 Missouri -7 over Kentucky (4 p.m., Saturday, Ocotber 27)

I'm laying the points with Mizzou on Saturday. Kentucky has one chance to keep this close and possibly pull out the win -- they must be able to own the time of possession, setting the tempo with the ground game. The problem for the boys in blue...they don't matchup well with this opponent. Missouri owns one of the better run defenses in the country, allowing just over 130 rushing yards per game. Kentucky's passing game is all but non-existent which means their offense could be in big trouble at Faurot Field. The Tiger offense has no such trouble, able to run the football and go up top, while averaging over 500 total yards per game and more than 38 ppg. We're betting Mizzou pulls away and we're laying the points with the Tigers on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

7-Unit Play: Take 184 Houston -7.5 over South Florida (3:30 p.m., Sat, Oct. 27)

I'm laying the points with Houston on Saturday. We've had this one earmarked for a while and had to hope and pray USF would get through their schedule undefeated before arriving in Houston. Good news -- while it was a bit iffy they'd oblige, they did, even with close calls against UConn and Tulsa (2-12 combined record) and the Bulls are 7-0 and ripe for an ugly loss against a much better football team. Ed Oliver may not play for the Cougars due to a sore knee, but that'll serve to get everyone else even more focused on the defensive side of the football. A schedule of ?creampuff city? is behind the Bulls and the level of competition goes up in a major way this weekend. Houston's offense is well-balanced with the nation's 3rd ranked offense in total yards per game, including the 9th best passing game and 18th best ground attack. Despite playing a soft slate, USF has not been able to stop the run, allowing over 229 yards per game (120th). USF enters on a 1-7 ATS slide in conference play and Houston is on a 7-0 ATS run off a road win, outscoring the seven opponents by an average score of 46-18. We're laying the points with Houston on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

3-Unit Play: Take 202 Iowa St. -3.5 over Texas Tech (12 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 27)

I'm laying the points with Iowa State on Saturday. Brock Purdy has added a dimension to the Cyclone offense that they simply didn't have when the season began. Purdy has completed 36 of 48, 75% of his passes with 7 TD passes and 2 INTs. But Purdy is also mobile, something former starting QB Zeb Noland and backup Kyle Kempt were not. ISU also has RB David Montgomery to keep the Red Raider defense honest. The pass defense has struggled and Tech allowed 42, 49, and 47 points to West Virginia, Houston, and Ole Miss. We had Iowa State 2 weeks ago when they whipped West Virginia, part of a 22-6-1 ATS overall run by the Cyclones. We'll back them again. I'm laying the points with Iowa State on Saturday. Thanks & GL!

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Jason Sharpe

Saturday October 27th 2018-

6 Unit Play Take #173 Texas A&M +2 over Mississippi State (7:00pm est):

I love 1st year CFB head coaches coming off a bye week especially later in the season as their teams usually show lots of improvement. We have an example of that here in this one with Texas A&M as they were off last week giving their 1st year head coach Jimbo Fisher two weeks to prepare for this game. The Aggies have been undervalued all year long as they come into this one with a 6-1 ATS record on the 2018 season. They have put together a fairly impressive resume this season at 5-2 overall with their two losses coming against undefeated powers Clemson and Alabama. Texas A&M nearly beat Clemson losing by only two points in a game that they gained nearly 100 more yards than the Tigers but were hurt by two costly fumbles and also missed two field goals as well in the game. The Aggies 45-23 loss to Alabama was arguably the best game that anyone has played against the Crimson Tide so far this season and Texas A&M also played that game on the road in Alabama. The Aggies come into this one with three straight wins all over SEC foes and in those games they out-gained the opposition by 167 yards per contest.

Mississippi State started off this season looking very impressive with three straight wins and point spread covers. Since then the Bulldogs haven't looked the same as they've dropped three of their last four games and didn't score more than 7 points in any of those three defeats. MSU relies heavily on a rushing offense that's ranked 2nd in the country at Football Outsiders S&P offensive rush rankings. The problem they have in this one is they face a Texas A&M defense that's ranked 7th best in defensive rush overall meaning things won't come easier here for MSU when it comes to running the football in this game.

The wrong team is favored in this one.

4 Unit Play Take #127 North Carolina +9 over Virginia (12:20pm est):

This line is too high. North Carolina is a lot better than their 1-5 record. The Tar Heels had to deal with a ton of early season suspensions but now everyone is back and they are playing a lot better over the past month. They had 10 more first downs in their game at Miami Florida but the Hurricanes scored three defensive touchdowns in the game. UNC blew fourth quarter leads the last two weeks but still covered the point spread in both contests.

Virginia comes in off two big upset wins the last two weeks but this is still a very average team. These two teams face each other every year and North Carolina has owned this series of late winning 7 of the last 8 meetings since 2010. This is the highest Virginia has been favored against the Tar Heels in this matchup since 2004 and I'm not buying it.

Take North Carolina plus the points.

3 Unit Play Take #187 Purdue +2 over Michigan State (12:00pm est):

The Purdue Boilermakers 2nd year head coach Jeff Brohm is one of the best coaches in all of college football and someone who's flying way under the public radar right now. One sign of a good coach is winning games considered to be toss ups and Brohm has done that going 4-1 straight-up since being at Purdue in games that were lined between -3 and +3 with the lone loss coming in a game where his team was -4 in turnovers yet despite that his team very easily could and should have won that game. The Boilermakers thrashed #2 ranked Ohio State 49-20 last week and nothing about that game was luck either as they were clearly the better team in that game. It's usually a good idea to look to bet against a team that is coming off a huge emotional upset win at home like Purdue did last game but that doesn't feel like it's the case here with what still looks to be vastly underrated Purdue team. The Boilermakers not only look to be scary good but they also look to be improving since they've settled on going with just one quarterback.

Michigan State has underachieved this year and come into this one off a 21-7 loss to rival Michigan last weekend. That contest wasn't as close as the final score as Michigan dominated the Spartans holding them to below 100 yards of total offense. The Michigan game is by far the biggest game of the year for MSU and the loss to the Wolverines ended any hopes they had of winning a Big Ten championship this year. The Spartans pulled off a huge upset win the week before the Michigan game by beating Penn State so when you add playing those two highly intense back to back games in with the fact that this contest here starts at noon it all adds up to what feels like a major let down spot for the Spartans in this one. This Purdue squad is a team that you better be ready to go against as the Boilermakers offense can give any defense fits. This matchup here looks to be a nightmare one for MSU as their weakness is going up against the pass which is something Purdue does very well. The Spartans are also dealing with a ton of injuries right now especially on the offensive side of the football and last week they lost their best offensive weapon to a season ending injury. There's also shot Michigan State's ailing starting quarterback won't be able to play in this game as well.

Take Purdue in this game.

3 Unit Play Take #202 Iowa State -3.5 over Texas Tech (12:00pm est):

Looks to be a big coaching mismatch in this one. Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell might be the best against the spread coach in all of CFB as he's posted an eye popping 30-13 ATS record the last four seasons as the head man at Toledo and Iowa State. He's dominated Texas Tech in his two career games against them so far winning by combined scores of 97-23 despite the fact his team was an underdog and expected to lose in both games. Making things even better for ISU in this one is Campbell will have two weeks to prepare for TTU and their true freshman quarterback in this contest.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders run the same offense as Iowa State's last opponent (West Virginia) and the ISU defense completely shut down the high powered WVU offense and their Heisman hopeful quarterback Will Grier holding the Mountaineers to just one offensive touchdown in the game and only 152 yards of offense in the Cyclones 30-14 win. Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury has struggled in games that were expected to be close as he's 5-14 ATS in games lined between -4 and +4.

Take Iowa State minus the points here.

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Strike point sports

3-Unit Play. Take #164 Southern California (-5) over Arizona State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 27)

USC for all of their short comings this season plays well at home. Arizona State has not looked that solid lately, and much of it has to do with their running game. When USC holds opponents rushing attack down they win football games, plain and simple. With ASU struggling to mount much of a ground game this year, this is the perfect spot for USC to win easily. ASU is just 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games while USC is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up loss. Take the favorite in this matchup as they are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between the two teams.

3-Unit Play. Take #161 Washington State (+3) over Stanford (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 27)

The wrong team is favored here. Stanford is favored because of their schools name and where the game is being played. In the end however, WSU is the better and sharper play. The Cougars are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall and 6-1 straight up. If that isn't enough to show you that they are the smart money Washington State is 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a team with a winning record and 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win. Stanford is not as strong as they have been in the past, and much of it has to do with their banged up running back Bryce Love. Love only rushed for 21 yards on 11 carries last week before leaving with an injury. Look for Washington State to be just too much on the offensive side of the football in this one.

[Iowethe man]

Chris “The Bear” Fallica 2018 CFB Week 9 Picks

Behind the Bets Podcast Picks (Season Record 24-21-1)

Appalachian St. at Ga. Southern – Ga. Southern (+9.5)
Texas at Oklahoma St. – Oklahoma St. (+3.5)
Oregon at Arizona – Arizona (+9.5)
San Diego St. at Nevada – Nevada (+2.5)
Purdue at Michigan St. – Purdue (+2.5)

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Norm Hitzges' Picks of the Pole

Double Plays:
Florida +6.5
Arkansas +1.5

Single Plays:
Illinois +17.5
Colorado -24.5
Washington -11.5
Missouri -7
Texas A&M +1.5
Clemson -17
UNT -30

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Marc Lawrence

College Football Perfect System Club Perfect Play!

South Florida