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SCOTT SPREITZERS
7-Unit Play: Take 255 Broncos +10 over Chiefs (1 p.m., Sunday, October 28)
I'm taking the points with the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Denver is the only team to slow down the high powered Chiefs' offense this season and almost beat KC in Denver. While the Chiefs won 27-23, they trailed by a FG with less than 2 minutes to go in the game. The Broncos are also the first team to see Patrick Mahomes twice this season (3rd time since last year) and each of the first 2 games were close with KC winning by 3 points last season. These are all advantages for the double digit divisional dog. We still aren't sold on the KC defense. After all, they gave up 43 points two weeks ago to the Patriots. We believe the KC bandwagoners that have forced books to post a double digit line, need to pump the brakes when saying the defense is improved just because they shut down a banged-up Bengals' offense. We've had Denver each of the last 2 weeks and we won both, including a cover in a 3 point loss to the Rams and when they whipped Arizona 10 days ago. Denver rushed for 159 yards on 22 carries when these two met earlier this season and they've topped 120 yards rushing in 5 of 7 games this season. We like them to run well again. I'm grabbing the points with the Broncos on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
4-Unit 2-Team Teaser: 254 Steelers -2 to 258 Bears -1.5 (-120) Sun. Oct. 28)
I'm playing a 6-point 2-team teaser. We're teasing the Steelers down to -2 over Cleveland and the Bears down to -1.5 over the NY Jets. The Steelers & Browns played to a 21-21 tie in this season's first meeting. While it ended in a tie, this is almost a case of revenge for Pittsburgh. The Steelers led 21-7 well into the 4th quarter and if not for a James Connor fumble inside the Steelers 20-yard line, Pittsburgh most likely wins the game. The fact the Steelers committed 6 turnovers yet Cleveland lucked-out to gain just a tie says a lot. We like the way Big Ben and the offense is playing, while Baker Mayfield looks like the rookie he is. We're teasing the Steelers down. The second half of the equation is the Chicago Bears. Chicago is 3-3 but just 11 points from a 6-0 record after losing 38-31 to the Patriots last week. Special teams did them in but we like the way Matt Nagy is calling plays for mobile young QB Mitch Trubisky. Meanwhile, the Bears defense should be too much for rookie QB Sam Darnold. We're teasing down the Bears. Once again, a 2-team, 6-point teaser: Steelers -2 to Bears -1.5. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 271 Packers +9.5 over Rams (4:25 p.m., Sunday, October 28)
I'm taking the points with the Packers on Sunday. The Rams have built their resume whipping Oakland, Arizona, and San Francisco, teams with a combined record of 3-17 SU. Their other wins came by 3 over Denver, by 2 points over Seattle, and by 7 over Minnesota. Even the 35-23 when over the Chargers wasn't as easy as the score indicates with one TD coming on a Chargers blown special teams play. Thanks to the undefeated start to the season, the Rams are now laying the second most points they've laid all season. I think this might catch Aaron Rodgers attention. While we don't care what most players think - we do when it comes to an elite few and Rodgers is one of them. The Packer defense is 5th against the pass and the offense ranks 4th in yards passing per contest. And we note road dogs of 3 � to 10 points are on a 36-15 ATS run if they have completed at least 60% of their passes on the season and have averaged at last 7 yards per pass in 3 straight games. The Packers failed to cover in a home win over SFO last week. We note that under Mike McCarthy, the Pack are 13-4 ATS off a win in a game where they failed to cover the spread. Green Bay outscored those 17 opponents by an average of 27-22. We'll back the undervalued Packers plus the points on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 274 Vikings -1 over Saints (8:20 p.m., Sunday, October 28)
I'm backing the Vikings on Sunday night. We first want to note that the look-ahead on this one was Minnesota -3 before last week's results. And yes, New Orleans will look to avenge the loss known as the Minneapolis Miracle. But we like the look of the Vikings' defense over the last 3 weeks. They're outstanding defending the run, ranked in the top 5 in rushing yards allowed per game and they're in the top-third in overall defense after struggling a bit earlier this season. Simply put - we're betting the Viking defense will be at their best in this contest. The Saints escaped with an OT win on the road against the Falcons and somehow Justin Tucker finally missed an extra point last week allowing the Saints to escape Baltimore. They have a loss to Tampa Bay, a 3 point win over Cleveland, and only led the Giants by 1 score with less than 3 minutes to go in the game before tacking on a late TD. We note that in the first half of the season, road non-favorites (dogs or PK) have covered just 9 of their last 39 if they're off at least 3 straight covers. New Orleans fall into this spot. We're backing the Vikings on Sunday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 276 Bills +14 over Patriots (8:15 p.m., Monday, October 29)
I'm grabbing the points with the Bills on Monday night. The look-ahead line on this one was 10.5, for what it's worth. This is a value and situational play for us. We note that teams getting more than 10 points are on a 24-6 ATS run if they lost by at least 14 points in their most recent game and their opponent scored at least 30 points in their previous game. These teams are almost always undervalued and Buffalo certainly is here. We aren't going to heap much praise on Buffalo, but Derek Anderson does give veteran knowhow to the offense and has a game under his belt. They'll face a Pats' defense that's allowed 95 points in their last 3 games and ranks 21st or worse in rushing yards, passing yards, and total yards allowed per contest. There's a reason the Pats have covered just 1 of their last 5 MNF games...because they're overvalued, especially when they're the ?only game in town.? I'm grabbing the points with the Buffalo Bills on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
7-Unit Play: Take 255 Broncos +10 over Chiefs (1 p.m., Sunday, October 28)
I'm taking the points with the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Denver is the only team to slow down the high powered Chiefs' offense this season and almost beat KC in Denver. While the Chiefs won 27-23, they trailed by a FG with less than 2 minutes to go in the game. The Broncos are also the first team to see Patrick Mahomes twice this season (3rd time since last year) and each of the first 2 games were close with KC winning by 3 points last season. These are all advantages for the double digit divisional dog. We still aren't sold on the KC defense. After all, they gave up 43 points two weeks ago to the Patriots. We believe the KC bandwagoners that have forced books to post a double digit line, need to pump the brakes when saying the defense is improved just because they shut down a banged-up Bengals' offense. We've had Denver each of the last 2 weeks and we won both, including a cover in a 3 point loss to the Rams and when they whipped Arizona 10 days ago. Denver rushed for 159 yards on 22 carries when these two met earlier this season and they've topped 120 yards rushing in 5 of 7 games this season. We like them to run well again. I'm grabbing the points with the Broncos on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
4-Unit 2-Team Teaser: 254 Steelers -2 to 258 Bears -1.5 (-120) Sun. Oct. 28)
I'm playing a 6-point 2-team teaser. We're teasing the Steelers down to -2 over Cleveland and the Bears down to -1.5 over the NY Jets. The Steelers & Browns played to a 21-21 tie in this season's first meeting. While it ended in a tie, this is almost a case of revenge for Pittsburgh. The Steelers led 21-7 well into the 4th quarter and if not for a James Connor fumble inside the Steelers 20-yard line, Pittsburgh most likely wins the game. The fact the Steelers committed 6 turnovers yet Cleveland lucked-out to gain just a tie says a lot. We like the way Big Ben and the offense is playing, while Baker Mayfield looks like the rookie he is. We're teasing the Steelers down. The second half of the equation is the Chicago Bears. Chicago is 3-3 but just 11 points from a 6-0 record after losing 38-31 to the Patriots last week. Special teams did them in but we like the way Matt Nagy is calling plays for mobile young QB Mitch Trubisky. Meanwhile, the Bears defense should be too much for rookie QB Sam Darnold. We're teasing down the Bears. Once again, a 2-team, 6-point teaser: Steelers -2 to Bears -1.5. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 271 Packers +9.5 over Rams (4:25 p.m., Sunday, October 28)
I'm taking the points with the Packers on Sunday. The Rams have built their resume whipping Oakland, Arizona, and San Francisco, teams with a combined record of 3-17 SU. Their other wins came by 3 over Denver, by 2 points over Seattle, and by 7 over Minnesota. Even the 35-23 when over the Chargers wasn't as easy as the score indicates with one TD coming on a Chargers blown special teams play. Thanks to the undefeated start to the season, the Rams are now laying the second most points they've laid all season. I think this might catch Aaron Rodgers attention. While we don't care what most players think - we do when it comes to an elite few and Rodgers is one of them. The Packer defense is 5th against the pass and the offense ranks 4th in yards passing per contest. And we note road dogs of 3 � to 10 points are on a 36-15 ATS run if they have completed at least 60% of their passes on the season and have averaged at last 7 yards per pass in 3 straight games. The Packers failed to cover in a home win over SFO last week. We note that under Mike McCarthy, the Pack are 13-4 ATS off a win in a game where they failed to cover the spread. Green Bay outscored those 17 opponents by an average of 27-22. We'll back the undervalued Packers plus the points on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 274 Vikings -1 over Saints (8:20 p.m., Sunday, October 28)
I'm backing the Vikings on Sunday night. We first want to note that the look-ahead on this one was Minnesota -3 before last week's results. And yes, New Orleans will look to avenge the loss known as the Minneapolis Miracle. But we like the look of the Vikings' defense over the last 3 weeks. They're outstanding defending the run, ranked in the top 5 in rushing yards allowed per game and they're in the top-third in overall defense after struggling a bit earlier this season. Simply put - we're betting the Viking defense will be at their best in this contest. The Saints escaped with an OT win on the road against the Falcons and somehow Justin Tucker finally missed an extra point last week allowing the Saints to escape Baltimore. They have a loss to Tampa Bay, a 3 point win over Cleveland, and only led the Giants by 1 score with less than 3 minutes to go in the game before tacking on a late TD. We note that in the first half of the season, road non-favorites (dogs or PK) have covered just 9 of their last 39 if they're off at least 3 straight covers. New Orleans fall into this spot. We're backing the Vikings on Sunday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 276 Bills +14 over Patriots (8:15 p.m., Monday, October 29)
I'm grabbing the points with the Bills on Monday night. The look-ahead line on this one was 10.5, for what it's worth. This is a value and situational play for us. We note that teams getting more than 10 points are on a 24-6 ATS run if they lost by at least 14 points in their most recent game and their opponent scored at least 30 points in their previous game. These teams are almost always undervalued and Buffalo certainly is here. We aren't going to heap much praise on Buffalo, but Derek Anderson does give veteran knowhow to the offense and has a game under his belt. They'll face a Pats' defense that's allowed 95 points in their last 3 games and ranks 21st or worse in rushing yards, passing yards, and total yards allowed per contest. There's a reason the Pats have covered just 1 of their last 5 MNF games...because they're overvalued, especially when they're the ?only game in town.? I'm grabbing the points with the Buffalo Bills on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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