Service Plays Sunday 10/28/18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Football(Bob Balfe)
1:00 PM EST
Rotation #261-262
Lions -3 over Seahawks
Detroit has been lacking a stud running back for a few years now, but Kerryon Johnson came out of nowhere and is turning into a household name as each week goes by. This Detroit team has a lot of talent. The question is can they put it all together and be a playoff team? The Seattle Defense is not as great as it once was and I just don’t think they have the secondary to slow down this Detroit Offense. The Lions have a lot of skilled players that the Seahawks will not be able to cover all at once. The Lions on the other hand have a stacked secondary with a lot of veteran presence. Detroit should win this one at home. Take the Lions.

NFL Football
4:05 PM EST
Rotation #267-268
Raiders +3 over Colts
The Colts are slowly getting healthier, but they still have a lot of injuries. This is a team that should not be favored on the road. I like the heart Indy and Andrew Luck have played with but talent on the field is what it is. This Indianapolis Defense is very young and inexperienced. Oakland is a team with a lot of talent that Gruden has not been able to make work. If there is ever a day for it to gel it’s today. Doug Martin becomes the main back for Oakland with Lynch now out. This Raiders Offense has a ton of experience at the skilled position and should move the ball well on this Indy Defense. Keep your eye on the Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri as he is dealing with a groin issue. If this team can’t make FG’s and XP like last week it’s going to be tough for them to win on the road. Oakland is a desperate team and I believe they have the talent edge today. Take the Raiders.


NFL Football
8:20 PM EST
Rotation #273-27
Saints -2 over Vikings
Do you believe in revenge games? Remember the miracle the Vikings got last year in the playoffs? Today is the day the Saints avenge that loss. For starters the Saints have gone on the road this year and won. This is a big key because in the past this team was never good on the road. This actually might be the most complete team in the NFC. We can obviously make a case for the Rams as well. The Vikings are really banged up and are a shell of the team they were last year. Right off the bat the QB Kirk Cousins was not with the team last year and the offensive and defensive lines have not been the same. New Orleans is stacked on both sides of the line of scrimmage and they have the overall talent edge. I look for a double digit beat down tonight. Take the Saints.


MLB
8:15 PM EST
Rotation #909-910
Red Sox +120 over Dodgers
Sale/Kershaw
It was looking like the Red Sox would be up 3-0 in the series and then the Dodgers were somehow flirting with tying the series, but just like that in a blink on an eye the Red Sox responded and are one win away from clinch the world series. If you are a Dodgers player you are in shock right now, everything moves so fast and now you are in panic mode. The Red Sox were the best team in baseball for a reason and I just don’t see them being stopped. Take Boston.

[Majorp]

VegasGuysVIP(Instagram)

Redskins -120

[Steel11]

Nelly's Sports

Sunday, Oct. 28
1* #260 New York Giants PK over Washington Redskins 12:00 PM CT
The Giants lost to Atlanta in the Week 7 Monday night game moving to 1-6. Trading players during the short week isn’t the best look of confidence but New York has played a daunting schedule and has played mostly close games. Washington leads the NFC East after a second straight narrow win but the 4-2 start includes only one road win, and that was at Arizona in Week 1. Washington is 9-25 S/U at New York since 1984 while covering just once in the last five trips and going 0-2 S/U as a road favorite since 1996. The Giants are 0-3 S/U and ATS at home but they played three of the top preseason Super Bowl favorites in those games and actually out-gained both Jacksonville and Philadelphia, top defensive teams. Washington had a defensive touchdown and still barely held on with a big break late against Dallas at home last week. This is still a team that lost 21-9 to the Colts at home and gave up 43 points in New Orleans and the Redskins shouldn’t be trusted as a reliable performer, going 4-2 but +5 in net scoring differential. Alex Smith still leads a very conservative passing attack posting only 7.1 yards per attempt while Washington only posts 4.0 yards per rush with little from Adrian Peterson since his great Week 1 debut. The Giants are completing passes at a five percent higher rate than opponent with a much stronger yards per attempt average than foes. Saquon Barkley has lived up to his billing as a dynamic playmaker and despite his baggage Odell Beckham is an elite receiver posting big numbers as the Giants shouldn’t be ruled out just yet to make some noise this season even if the playoffs aren’t realistic.
2* #261 Seattle Seahawks +3 over Detroit Lions 12:00 PM CT
The Lions have climbed back to 3-3 including getting a road win last week. Detroit has huge division road games the next two weeks but can’t overlook this contest. Seattle is also 3-3 with good defensive numbers but two wins have come against one-win squads. The Seahawks have only lost one-score games however including playing close with the Rams as this squad is finding ways to compete. Seattle has improved its offensive line play while excelling in special teams and shouldn’t be ruled out as a playoff threat in the NFC despite grim prospects in the offseason. Seattle is holding opponents to just 6.8 yards per pass this season while the Lions allow 8.0 yards per pass attempt. The development of the running game behind Kerryon Johnson has been a welcome change for the Lions but he has been held to 70 or fewer yards in three of the last five games as one big game accounts for much his production. Detroit is allowing 5.3 yards per rush this season as the Seahawks should have the opportunity to produce edges in this game. The Lions have caught breaks the past two weeks with the kicking woes for Mason Crosby in the win over the Packers and getting to face a backup quarterback last week. Last week the Lions played well on the road off the bye week, that is the situation Seattle is in this week with the Seahawks getting points at a critical juncture in the season.
2* #274 Minnesota Vikings PK over New Orleans Saints 7:20 PM CTThe revenge narrative will get plenty of play for the Saints after the miraculous playoff win for the Vikings last January. The Vikings were as high as -6 in that game however and despite making a massive upgrade at quarterback the spread is near-even Sunday night in Minneapolis this season. New Orleans is 5-1 but caught good fortune last week with a comeback in Baltimore, avoiding overtime on a missed extra-point. This is a second straight road game for the Saints with close calls in all three road wins. Minnesota’s home track record under Mike Zimmer is quite impressive at 26-11 S/U and 26-10-1 ATS including going 12-3 ATS in the last 15 games as either an underdog or a favorite of two or fewer points. While the Vikings haven’t been a complete threat offensively the running game has shown some progress and Kirk Cousins has the ability to match Drew Brees in an aerial shootout. The Saints have been very good against the run this season but Minnesota has shown it can win with one of the league’s worst rushing attacks so far. The spread has been adjusted downward compared with two meetings last year despite the Vikings getting dramatically better at quarterback while New Orleans has certainly gotten worse on defense even if it hasn’t shown up lately with a schedule featuring the underwhelming offenses in the Browns, Giants, Redskins, and Ravens. Since 2011 the Saints are 4-9 S/U and ATS in second straight road games and this spread suggests that Baltimore is a vastly superior team to Minnesota with the Ravens -3 last week. What is forgotten about the Minneapolis Miracle playoff win is that the Vikings led 17-7 into the fourth quarter and had a significant yardage edge with Drew Brees held to just 7.3 yards per attempt and the Saints held to 3.3 yards per attempt rushing as Minnesota was the clear superior team despite needing the incredible finish.

Anyone have Gavazzi's Plays

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday World Series Game #5 (From The Greek)

Dodgers (Kershaw) -138
Red Sox (Price) +128
Total 7.5 (-110)


**Note - Red Sox starting David Price in Game 5..
If a Game 6 the game plan for the Red Sox is to
Hand the Ball over to Sale

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seabass :

300 10 pt teaser Pitt, Chicago, Giants
1000 Seattle
500 Denver
400 Ravens
400 TB
500 Colts/ Raiders over
500 Chicago/ Jets under

[FATMANWINS]

allan desrosiers
10 seattle
10 san fran
8 wash
7 teaser jets-tampa
7 teaser kc-pitt
7 teaser cin over - rams over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux NFL

#261 - NFL - 10 units on Seattle +3
#267 - NFL - 10 units on Indianapolis & Oakland Over 50.5
#268 - NFL - 20 units on Oakland +3
#269 - NFL - 10 units on San Francisco -1
#274 - NFL - 10 units on Minnesota +1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

charlie sports

---

500
jets over 41
carlonia +3
Denver +9.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tiger from philly

over 42 nyJ

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Stryker

59-36 ATS NFL DIVISION GAME of the MONTH
Giants

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness' 10* Sunday NFL Oddsmaker's Error (5-0 in NFL 2018!)

My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Lions (1:00 EST).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Unlimited/Marco

4% Minnesota
4% Cleveland
3% Vikings over
Late Money Play Tampa Bay

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso

50 Cincinnati

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MTI

4.5-Star Seahawks +3 over LIONS - Detroit converted only 2 of 8 third down attempts in their 32-21 vistory over the Dolphins last week, for their second straight win by more than a TD. This lights the button on a play-against system that states, Teams on artificial turf of a road win in which they converted fewer than five third downs and had a conversion percentage of less than 50% are 0-18 ATS when the line is withing four points of pick and they are facing a team that has averaged less than 36 minutes of possession time per game. The SDQL text is:

-4<=line<=4 and surface=artificial and p:AW and p:3DM<5 and p:3DP<50 and oA(TOP/60)<36 and date>=20141000

Teams in this spot have lost each of their last seven straight up and they were the favorite in five of the seven.

Detroit ran the ball for 248 yards and the last time that did this, Barry Sanders was their running back and it has been four seasons since the Lions ran the ball for 35-plus times in a game. The Lions are 0-9 ATS (-12.31 ppg) off a road win in which they had at least 9.5 more rushes than their season-to-date average, failing to cover by an average of 14.3 ppg.

The Lions were up by at least a TD after every quarter against the Dolphins and the have been unable to live up to the linesmakers high expectation after such a win. Detroit is 0-12 ATS when the line is inside of six points from pick and they are off a double-digit win as a favorite in which they were up by at least a TD at the half and covered by at least a FG. The SDQL text is:

team=Lions and -6=10 and p:M2>=7 and p:ats margin>=3 and season >= 1994

Last season they were in a VERY similar spot. They were on a two game winning streak, having just beat the Bears 20-10. They were a three-point home favorite over the Bengals and lost 26-17.

The Seahawks LOVE the challenge of a team that is playing well - especially if they are the underdog. Seattle is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a dog to a team that is off two straight TD-plus wins. In 2017, they beat the Eagles 24-10 getting 3.5 and this season, they just lost to the Rams 33-31 getting 7. Check it out with this SDQL text:

team=Seahawks and D and 7<=op:margin and 7<=opp:margin and date>=20121014

Seattle has covered the spread in these eight games by an average of more than two TDs.

Seattle has been taking care of the ball recently and this is another positive sign. The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS (11.25 ppg) since Dec 01, 2011 as a dog when they are off two consecutive games with a negative turnover margin. The SDQL here is:

team=Seahawks and D and p:TOM<0 and pp:TOM<0 and date>=20111201

Were getting points with the better team. Grab-em.

MTis FORECAST: Seattle 27 LIONS 20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sharp


5* Detroit -3

4* Minnesota +1

3* Philadelphia -3
3* San Francisco Pk

3* Teaser 6pt Pittsburgh -2.5
Chicago -1.5