Tweet
MTI
4.5-Star Broncos at Chiefs UNDER 55 - In general, big favorites take a cautious approach when facing a team that has allowed a lot of offensive yardage.
Before week 17, TD-plus favorites are 0-26 OU on grass when they are off a game as a favorite and they are facing a team that has allowed an average of more than 370.5 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The SDQL text is:
line<=-7 and surface=grass and p:F and oA(o:TY)>=370.5 and week<17 and date>=20151000
These TD-plus favorites have allowed only 12.4 ppg in this spot. This season, in three qualifying games, they held their opponent to an average of ten ppg.
Kansas City dominated the Bengals 45-10 last week with 551 yards of offense. This sets up a number of under indicators. The Chiefs are 0-10 OU (-15.55 ppg) as a home favorite off a game as a favorite in which they scored more than 33 points, 0-15 OU (-10.63 ppg) as a home favorite after they had at least three more minutes of possesion time than their season-to-date average, and 0-18 OU as a Sunday home favorite after a TD-plus win in which they were not a TD-plus dog and they are facing a team that has passed the ball at least 30 times per game season-to-date. The SDQL text for the last of this trio is:
team=Chiefs and day=Sunday and HF and p:margin>7 and oA(passes)>=30 and p:line<7 and season >= 2005
The Chiefs have held their last six opponents in this spot to under 20 points.
Denver is also off a 45-10 win, destroying the Cardinals in Arizona on Thursday Night. The Broncos are 0-9 OU (-10.94 ppg) as a road dog on grass off a road win. The average final score in these nine games has been 12.4 to 18.2 points.
The Broncos are also 0-7 OU (-9.50 ppg) off a game as a favorite when their passing decreased over each of their past two games and 0-7 OU (-10.07 ppg) after a road game in which Emmanuel Sanders had more than five receptions. The SDQL for the second of this pair is:
team=Broncos and Emmanuel Sanders
:receptions>5 and p:A and date>=20151200
Finally, Denver is 0-11 OU on the road on grass when they are off a win in which they had more than two rushing foirst downs and are averaging 24-plus points per game over their last three games. The SDQL is:
team=Broncos and A and surface=grass and p:W and tA(points,N=3)>=24 and p:RFD>2 and season>=2010
Since Andy Reif took over as the coach of the Chiefs in 2013, they are 0-8 OU as an eight-plus point favorite, as long as they are not on a three-plus game losing streak. The SDQL text is:
team=Chiefs and line<=-8 and coach=Andy Reid and streak>-3
The average final score in these eight games has been Chiefs 18, Opponent 12.
Personally, Reid is 0-12 OU in this spot if you include his last four qualifying games as the Head coach of the Eagles.
Lets go UNDER this number.
MTis FORECAST: CHIEFS 27 Broncos 17
4.5-Star Broncos at Chiefs UNDER 55 - In general, big favorites take a cautious approach when facing a team that has allowed a lot of offensive yardage.
Before week 17, TD-plus favorites are 0-26 OU on grass when they are off a game as a favorite and they are facing a team that has allowed an average of more than 370.5 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The SDQL text is:
line<=-7 and surface=grass and p:F and oA(o:TY)>=370.5 and week<17 and date>=20151000
These TD-plus favorites have allowed only 12.4 ppg in this spot. This season, in three qualifying games, they held their opponent to an average of ten ppg.
Kansas City dominated the Bengals 45-10 last week with 551 yards of offense. This sets up a number of under indicators. The Chiefs are 0-10 OU (-15.55 ppg) as a home favorite off a game as a favorite in which they scored more than 33 points, 0-15 OU (-10.63 ppg) as a home favorite after they had at least three more minutes of possesion time than their season-to-date average, and 0-18 OU as a Sunday home favorite after a TD-plus win in which they were not a TD-plus dog and they are facing a team that has passed the ball at least 30 times per game season-to-date. The SDQL text for the last of this trio is:
team=Chiefs and day=Sunday and HF and p:margin>7 and oA(passes)>=30 and p:line<7 and season >= 2005
The Chiefs have held their last six opponents in this spot to under 20 points.
Denver is also off a 45-10 win, destroying the Cardinals in Arizona on Thursday Night. The Broncos are 0-9 OU (-10.94 ppg) as a road dog on grass off a road win. The average final score in these nine games has been 12.4 to 18.2 points.
The Broncos are also 0-7 OU (-9.50 ppg) off a game as a favorite when their passing decreased over each of their past two games and 0-7 OU (-10.07 ppg) after a road game in which Emmanuel Sanders had more than five receptions. The SDQL for the second of this pair is:
team=Broncos and Emmanuel Sanders
:receptions>5 and p:A and date>=20151200 Finally, Denver is 0-11 OU on the road on grass when they are off a win in which they had more than two rushing foirst downs and are averaging 24-plus points per game over their last three games. The SDQL is:
team=Broncos and A and surface=grass and p:W and tA(points,N=3)>=24 and p:RFD>2 and season>=2010
Since Andy Reif took over as the coach of the Chiefs in 2013, they are 0-8 OU as an eight-plus point favorite, as long as they are not on a three-plus game losing streak. The SDQL text is:
team=Chiefs and line<=-8 and coach=Andy Reid and streak>-3
The average final score in these eight games has been Chiefs 18, Opponent 12.
Personally, Reid is 0-12 OU in this spot if you include his last four qualifying games as the Head coach of the Eagles.
Lets go UNDER this number.
MTis FORECAST: CHIEFS 27 Broncos 17
Comment